SINAL DE BULL MARKET? O QUE REALMENTE FEZ O BITCOIN SUBIR | MONEY FLOW
SINAL DE BULL MARKET? O QUE REALMENTE FEZ O BITCOIN SUBIR | MONEY FLOW
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Avoid chasing the current rally in Bitcoin (BTC) near major resistance between $72,000 and $74,200, and instead wait for pullbacks toward the $52,000 to $63,000 support zone to accumulate while maintaining a higher portfolio weighting in Ethereum (ETH) for greater upside potential.

Accumulate leading decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens and alternative cryptocurrencies—specifically Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), Uniswap (UNI), Injective (INJ), and Aave (AAVE)—during red market weeks to position for regulatory catalysts expected over the coming cycle.

Watch NVIDIA (NVDA) closely ahead of its August 26 earnings window, as a potential pullback in the Nasdaq could temporarily drag down both equities and crypto to create better entry points.

Use broad market dips to build long-term positions in secular growth leaders like Netflix (NFLX) and satellite-to-cell pioneer AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) across a high-conviction 2025–2035 investment horizon.

Protect your portfolio by avoiding high-leverage derivatives entirely and holding spot crypto and equities directly to safely compound returns without liquidation risk.

Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The current rapid price surge is primarily driven by a short squeeze orchestrated by high-frequency trading (HFT) robots and whale manipulation capturing liquidity from short sellers.
  • Major resistance sits between $72,000 and $74,200 (with $73,800 identified as a primary liquidation target), with a potential extended liquidity target around $83,000.
  • A strong weekly green candle (referred to as an "elephant bar") is forming, which may signal the start of a bull market transition over the next 3 to 4 months.
  • There is a high risk of creating a lower local top at resistance followed by a slow, gradual correction or lateralization that could pull the price down to test support around $52,000 to $63,000 before the true bull market begins.

Takeaways

  • Avoid buying during massive green candle days or during the current short squeeze, as retail buyers risk getting trapped near the local top.
  • Do not sell existing long-term positions, but wait for heavy red pullbacks (especially at weekly or monthly closes) to dollar-cost average and accumulate.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • Up significantly (22%) during the recent short squeeze, outperforming Bitcoin.
  • Ethereum broke a long-term descending trendline against BTC, indicating strong relative momentum.
  • Expected to offer higher upside potential than Bitcoin in the upcoming market cycle because it has spent more time in an accumulation phase and remains undervalued.

Takeaways

  • Maintain a higher portfolio weighting in ETH compared to BTC for the upcoming cycle, accumulating aggressively on pullbacks.

Solana (SOL) & Alternative Cryptocurrencies

  • Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), and decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens like Uniswap (UNI), Injective (INJ), and Aave (AAVE) are highlighted as major beneficiaries of upcoming regulatory developments, specifically the prospective Clarity Act.
  • Large altcoins are projected to have stronger percentage gains than Bitcoin once the bull market officially establishes.

Takeaways

  • Accumulate SOL, XRP, and quality DeFi assets during red market weeks to capitalize on regulatory clarity catalysts expected in late 2026/early 2027.

Macro & U.S. Equities (NVIDIA, Netflix, AST SpaceMobile, Oklo)

  • NVIDIA (NVDA): Currently showing a bearish rising wedge pattern. A potential post-earnings pullback around August 26 could drag down the Nasdaq and temporarily weigh on the broader crypto market.
  • Netflix (NFLX): Identified as an excellent long-term entry point, provided investors buy on red monthly pullbacks rather than chasing green candles.
  • AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): Held as a high-conviction 10-year investment theme (2025–2035) focused on satellite-to-smartphone connectivity and satellite internet.
  • Oklo (OKLO): Mentioned positively as an energy sector play of interest for long-term speculation.
  • Coinbase (COIN): Expected to gain significant fundamental value from legislative and regulatory clarity following political discussions with major exchange heads.

Takeaways

  • Watch NVDA earnings closely for broad equity and crypto market direction.
  • Seek long-term accumulation entries in secular growth themes like satellite communications (ASTS) and streaming leaders (NFLX) exclusively on down days.

Leveraged Trading & High-Leverage ETFs

  • Excessive leverage (such as 100x leverage on crypto platforms or leveraged crypto ETFs during choppy, sideways markets) destroys retail capital due to volatility decay and deliberate market maker liquidations.
  • Over $4 billion in speculative long positions could be wiped out if the market experiences a standard correction.

Takeaways

  • Avoid leveraged instruments and high-multiplier futures contracts entirely.
  • Protect your capital by holding spot assets and letting spot price appreciation compound safely over multi-year cycles.
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About Augusto Backes
Augusto Backes

Augusto Backes

By @augustobackes

Bem-vindo ao canal Augusto Backes. Aqui eu compartilho estudos, leituras de cenário e análise de informação pública sobre os ...