Amit Kukreja
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Amit Kukreja

by @amitinvesting

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Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!
Ask about Amit KukrejaAnswers are grounded in this source's posts from the last 30 days.

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ASTS, BIG BEAR, ARCHER EARNINGS + CONVERSATION WITH FARZAD | MARKET CLOSE

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is a high-conviction growth play following a massive revenue beat, with management targeting a significant $1 billion in revenue by 2027. SoFi Technologies (SOFI) shows strong internal confidence after the CEO’s $1 million insider purchase, though investors should watch for a breakout above the $19.00 resistance level. For long-term portfolios, Tesla (TSLA) remains a "set it and forget it" play as it transitions into a physical AI and robotics leader, despite high capital expenditure risks. NVIDIA (NVDA) has been named a top pick by Morgan Stanley with a $260 price target, while Palantir (PLTR) continues to dominate the enterprise AI sector. In the speculative small-cap space, Ouster (OUST) is a momentum favorite following a "triple beat" on earnings, and Lemonade (LMND) offers high-upside potential as an AI-driven insurance disruptor.

TRUMP STRIKES IRAN, NVIDIA INVESTS IN 2 NEW COMPANIES, WHERE DOES MARCH GO | MARKET OPEN

NVIDIA (NVDA) is currently a "Top Pick" with a historically low valuation under 20x forward earnings, offering a strong entry point ahead of the GTC Conference in mid-March. Investors should also monitor Lumentum (LITE) and Coherent (COHR), as NVIDIA’s recent $4 billion investment in these firms signals a high-conviction play on photonics and optics. In the defense sector, Palantir (PLTR) has emerged as a "blue chip" beneficiary of geopolitical instability, acting as the technological backbone for military operations. While oil price spikes have pressured travel stocks, U.S. LNG providers like NextDecade (NEXT) are surging as global supply narratives shift. Finally, Bitcoin (BTC) is increasingly replacing gold as the preferred "crisis asset," making crypto proxies like Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR) actionable plays for those seeking high-beta resilience.

TRUMP STRIKES IRAN | MARKET FUTURES

Investors should consider immediate exposure to the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) or major producers like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) to capitalize on rising crude prices. While oil has surged 8% following the strike, be cautious of "chasing" the initial gap up, as these gains can fade quickly if the conflict stabilizes. Monitor the Strait of Hormuz closely, as any closure could realistically drive oil prices toward a target of $150 per barrel. For those with a medium-term outlook, holding energy stocks serves as a vital hedge against a potential global recession triggered by supply shocks. Focus on high-conviction entries during brief pullbacks rather than buying at the peak of the overnight news cycle.

AN UGLY END TO FEBRUARY FOR THE STOCK MARKET | MARKET CLOSE

NVIDIA (NVDA) presents a compelling valuation play following its recent sell-off to $177.22, with its forward PE now compressed to a historically cheap 16x-19x despite massive revenue growth. Investors seeking exposure to the potential SpaceX IPO in mid-2025 should consider Google (GOOGL) or Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) as indirect vehicles to capture the company's projected $1.75 trillion valuation. The U.S. government’s ban on Anthropic creates a significant market vacuum for competitors like OpenAI, xAI, and Google (Gemini) to capture lucrative federal AI contracts. Within the infrastructure space, look for "secondary derivative" plays like Amkor Technology (AMKR) and Comfort Systems (FIX), which support the semiconductor and data center supply chains. For macro positioning, follow high-conviction trends by going long on Copper, Gold, and Japan, while remaining cautious on U.S. Bonds and the U.S. Dollar amid rising inflation data.

NETFLIX WALKS AWAY, NVIDIA DOWN, PPI DATA, BLOCK FIRES 40% OF STAFF | MARKET OPEN

The current dip in NVIDIA (NVDA) presents a high-conviction buying opportunity near the $179-$180 support level, as it remains the cheapest "Magnificent 7" stock at 15x forward earnings. OpenAI’s massive $110 billion funding round serves as a major bullish catalyst for the entire AI stack, guaranteeing long-term demand for partners like NVIDIA, Oracle (ORCL), and Broadcom (AVGO). Investors should favor Netflix (NFLX) following its exit from the Paramount merger, with analysts setting an outperform price target of $115 as the company captures a $3 billion breakup fee. Avoid "buying the dip" on Duolingo (DUOL), as declining user metrics and rising competition from free AI models like ChatGPT create significant long-term narrative risk. Given rising geopolitical tensions and hotter-than-expected inflation data, consider rotating into Gold and Silver to hedge against a "risk-off" environment and potential private credit contagion in the banking sector.

ROCKETLAB, SOUNDHOUND, COREWEAVE, DUOLINGO, MP, INTUIT, SMR EARNINGS + MACRO THURSDAY | MARKET CLOSE

The recent dip in NVIDIA (NVDA) presents a high-conviction buying opportunity as it trades at a valuation cheaper than Meta relative to its 80% growth; look for major support and entry levels near $175. Dell Technologies (DELL) remains a top-tier AI infrastructure play following a massive guidance raise to $142 billion and a $10 billion increase in share buybacks. Investors should favor Block (SQ) as it pivots toward extreme profitability through a 40% workforce reduction, signaling a broader "efficiency trade" in the fintech sector. Conversely, avoid Duolingo (DUOL) as declining monthly active users suggest its language-learning moat is being disrupted by free AI tools. For diversified exposure, consider "deep value" software names like Adobe (ADBE) or high-growth SaaS plays like Zeta Global (ZETA), which the analyst expects could double in valuation.

NVIDIA DESTROYS EARNINGS, THE JANE STREET LAWSUIT, WHERE DO MARKETS GO | MARKET OPEN

Consider rotating into quality software stocks like Salesforce (CRM) and Adobe (ADBE), as the narrative shifts to AI enhancing their platforms rather than replacing them. While NVIDIA's (NVDA) fundamentals are historic, its range-bound stock makes a covered call strategy attractive for generating income from its volatility. A major lawsuit may have removed significant selling pressure on Bitcoin (BTC), creating a bullish catalyst for the entire crypto market. Investors should monitor Bitcoin's price action around 10:00 AM ET to see if historical price dumps have ceased. Finally, strong earnings from Celsius (CELH) and Shake Shack (SHAK) show continued consumer strength in specific growth brands.

NVDA Q4 2025 EARNINGS LIVE | JENSEN HUANG SPEAKS

NVIDIA (NVDA) remains the highest conviction investment, as its recent earnings showed a massive re-acceleration in growth and guidance that far surpassed expectations. Despite its run-up, the stock is considered cheap relative to its growth, with some analysts targeting $250 per share this year. A major market rotation is underway, favoring the AI hardware supply chain over software stocks, as even strong performers like Salesforce (CRM) are not being rewarded. This suggests investors should be cautious with software-as-a-service (SaaS) investments for now. For a broader play on the data center build-out, consider Nutanix (NTNX), which recently surged following a strategic investment from AMD.

DOES NVIDIA SAVE THE MARKET TODAY | MARKET OPEN

The software sector, represented by the IGV ETF, presents a compelling buying opportunity as major banks believe AI displacement fears are overblown and valuations are at historic lows. Investors should also consider exposure to the booming memory chip cycle through stocks like Micron (MU) or the South Korean ETF (EWY), as the upswing is projected to last through at least 2026. AMD's recent deal with Meta validates its AI strategy, and its long-term target of over $20 in EPS could drive the stock towards $600. Bitcoin (BTC) is showing renewed strength by holding key support above $60,000, with the potential end of miner selling pressure signaling a bullish outlook. Finally, watch NVIDIA's (NVDA) upcoming earnings, as guidance significantly above $71 billion could be the key catalyst for a major stock and market rally.

TRUMP'S STATE OF THE UNION LIVE

NVIDIA's (NVDA) upcoming earnings report is a critical event that could determine the market's near-term direction. Political proposals are creating significant headwinds for the single-family home rental and healthcare sectors, warranting caution for investors in these areas. While Blue Owl (OWL) offers an attractive 8% dividend as a play on AI data centers, it is considered a high-risk investment to avoid due to its heavy concentration. The crypto market remains extremely volatile, with a recent rumor-driven pump in Bitcoin (BTC) from $62,000 to over $66,000 quickly fading, highlighting the risk of trading on speculation. Investors should monitor these key events and political risks closely.

ZETA, MELI, TEMPUS, FSLR, AXON, CAVA EARNINGS + TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE

Axon (AXON) and Cava Group (CAVA) are showing significant strength after delivering massive earnings beats and raising future guidance. Consider Zeta Global (ZETA) as a compelling opportunity after it achieved GAAP profitability, with analysis suggesting it is undervalued below $14. PayPal (PYPL) presents a speculative play, as its stock has a near-term catalyst from a credible rumor of a potential acquisition by Stripe. For a potential short trade, consider Lemonade (LMND) on any pop near $59, with a downside target of $35. Lastly, be cautious with Bitcoin (BTC), as technical analysis suggests a potential long-term "crypto winter" scenario with downside risk towards the $30,000 level.

AMD SIGNS A HUGE DEAL WITH META, NVDA EARNINGS TOMORROW, WHEN IS THE SAAS SELLOFF DONE | MARKET OPEN

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has secured a massive, multi-billion dollar AI chip deal with Meta, guaranteeing a significant revenue stream for the next five years. NVIDIA's (NVDA) upcoming earnings report is a critical market event, with options markets pricing in a potential 10% move for the stock. The software-as-a-service (SaaS) sector is facing a major selloff due to fears that AI will disrupt established business models. Investors should monitor Bitcoin (BTC), as a sustained break below the critical $60,200 support level could signal a deeper correction for the crypto market. Finally, Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) stock dropped significantly after guiding for much slower growth and disclosing an SEC investigation.

The Article That Crashed The Market Today

Consider buying NVIDIA (NVDA) ahead of its earnings report this Wednesday, as it is viewed as the key hardware provider for the AI revolution. A strong report could push the stock toward the $205-$210 range, although broader market fear may temper the rally. Be cautious with software, fintech, and consumer platform stocks like CrowdStrike (CRWD), Mastercard (MA), and DoorDash (DASH). These sectors face significant selling pressure from fears that AI will commoditize their business models. For an investment potentially insulated from this "AI Anxiety," consider companies with physical-world businesses like Rocket Lab (RKLB).

ANTHROPIC TAKES DOWN SOFTWARE AGAIN, S&P DOWN, HIMS & KTOS EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE

Consider NVIDIA (NVDA) as a key AI investment, with its upcoming earnings report on Wednesday being a critical market event and some analysts targeting a $400 price. The broader software (IGV) and cybersecurity (BUG) sectors are facing significant headwinds as investors fear AI will commoditize their products. IBM (IBM) is a prime example of this risk, with its stock recently suffering its worst day since 2010 due to a direct AI threat to its legacy COBOL business. Investors should also be wary of growth stocks showing sharp deceleration, such as Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), which guided to a major slowdown. Finally, be cautious with payment processors like MasterCard (MA) and Visa (V), as the market is now pricing in long-term disruption risk from stablecoins.

MORE TRUMP TARIFFS, NVIDIA EARNINGS, LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY | MARKET OPEN

NVIDIA's (NVDA) upcoming earnings report is a major catalyst, with analysts targeting prices between $270 and $400 due to a "super cycle" in AI demand. The stock is considered historically cheap, trading at 24 times forward earnings, which is significantly below its five-year average. As a related value play on the AI theme, consider the EWY ETF for exposure to leading South Korean memory chip makers trading at a deep discount to global peers. A more speculative opportunity exists in PayPal (PYPL), which recently jumped 10% on preliminary takeover interest after a significant price decline. Conversely, extreme fear surrounding AI's disruptive potential is causing a major sell-off in the SaaS (IGV) and Financials (AXP) sectors, creating a high-risk environment for investors.

NVIDIA EARNINGS THIS WEEK, TRUMP RAMPS UP NEW TARIFFS | MARKET FUTURES

Consider investing in memory chip makers like Micron (MU), which analysts see as a top play on the AI supercycle with a price target as high as $450. For discounted exposure to this theme, the EWY ETF offers access to Korean chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix at a significantly lower valuation. While NVIDIA (NVDA) is fundamentally strong, watch for a potential "sell the news" dip after earnings, which could present a buying opportunity near the $175-$180 range. Amidst rising global uncertainty, investors are seeking safety in hard assets, making Gold (GLD) and Silver (SLV) attractive defensive holdings. The beaten-down software sector may offer value, with Palantir (PLTR) standing out after securing a new $1 billion contract despite negative market sentiment.

PCE DATA, SUPREME COURT TARIFF DESICSION, IRAN TENSIONS CONTINUE | MARKET OPEN

Analysts are raising Google (GOOGL) price targets as high as $415, citing strong momentum from its Gemini AI products. Opendoor (OPEN) is a potential buy after guiding for profitability by fiscal year 2026, a catalyst boosted by the lowest mortgage rates since 2022. Massive capital raises by AI leaders like OpenAI reinforce the long-term investment case for key chip suppliers NVIDIA (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and Broadcom (AVGO). Conversely, investors should be cautious with the private credit sector, as notable weakness is pressuring related stocks like Blue Owl (OWL), SoFi (SOFI), and Lemonade (LMND). The Supreme Court's reversal of tariffs may create a long-term tailwind for importers like Nike (NKE) and automakers GM (GM) and Ford (F), despite short-term uncertainty.

MARKETS FLAT, OPENDOOR, TEXASROAD HOUSE EARNINGS + MACRO THURSDAY | MARKET CLOSE

Consider PayPal (PYPL) as a deep value trade, as it is viewed as being too cheap while executing large share buybacks. Another long-term turnaround play is Fiserv (FI), which is attractive due to a new shareholder-friendly CEO and a historically low valuation. In the beaten-down SaaS sector, Adobe (ADBE) is approaching value levels, but it is advised to wait for the price to stabilize before buying. The cruise line sector is also seen as a bullish investment due to strong free cash flow, with Royal Caribbean (RCL) highlighted as a top performer. While there is extreme short-term bullishness for NVIDIA (NVDA) heading into earnings, be cautious of a potential sell-off even if the results are strong.

OPENAI RAISES $100B, WALMART EARNINGS, IRAN TENSIONS CONTINUE | MARKE TOPEN

The massive new funding for OpenAI reinforces the long-term investment case for key AI supply chain stocks like NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN). Investors should watch NVIDIA's earnings report next week, as it is a critical event that could mark a bottom for the recent tech sell-off. To hedge against rising geopolitical risk, consider the energy sector (XLE), as stocks like Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are benefiting from higher oil prices. Be extremely cautious with high-growth and recent IPO stocks, as the market is punishing them even after strong earnings. Finally, Bitcoin (BTC) is showing significant short-term weakness and is not acting as a safe haven, warranting a cautious approach.