Market impact of geopolitical risk is fading; high 'oil on water' levels provide a cushion against shocks.

Physical supply chain reaching a critical point with a three-week lag before supply shortages from Middle East conflict manifest.

High volatility expected due to supply shocks in the Strait of Hormuz and spiraling gas prices, though geopolitical risk premiums are high.

Continued instability in the Strait of Hormuz suggests sustained upward pressure on crude oil prices due to a war premium.

Primary vehicle to capitalize on supply-demand imbalances and the transfer of wealth to energy-producing nations.

Sanctions against a major commodity exporter like Russia can lead to supply shocks, which could cause price spikes in assets like oil.