High volatility expected due to geopolitical instability and Iranian protocols in the Strait of Hormuz, though price remains below targets.

Prices have spiked due to geopolitical tensions involving U.S. military action and Iranian attacks.

Geopolitical tensions and blockades in the Strait of Hormuz create a supply shortfall risk and provide a price floor.

Prices remaining over $100 contributes to bearish concerns regarding market stability.

The breakup of the OPEC cartel and UAE's potential exit are expected to lead to increased competition and lower oil prices over the long term.

UAE's exit from OPEC and potential departures of Kazakhstan and Venezuela suggest a release of spare capacity and a decline in pricing control, leading to increased supply and downward pressure.

Bombing of industrial centers and nuclear facilities in a key OPEC nation suggests significant upside risk to prices due to supply disruption concerns.

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and potential naval blockades involving Iran are likely to drive volatility and upward pressure on prices.

Prices are highly sensitive to political rhetoric and social media, facing risks of manipulation and increased regulatory scrutiny from the SEC.

A 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon decreases the geopolitical risk premium, likely leading to a short-term cooling of oil prices.