What Happens When Everyone Can Build Software
What Happens When Everyone Can Build Software
Podcast48 min 45 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • The clearest opportunity is the long-term AI software infrastructure theme: growing use of AI agents to build apps may boost demand for databases, cloud hosting, and developer tools, though no specific stock or timeframe was recommended.
  • Supabase reported rapid growth—13 million signups and revenue expected to grow 4×—but it is private, and the discussion provides no valuation or direct public-market investment route.
  • AMZN, MDB, ORCL, GOOGL, and META were mentioned as industry examples, not as buy recommendations; the discussion offered no stock-specific targets or outlooks.
Detailed Analysis

Supabase (Private)

  • Supabase was presented as a fast-growing, open-source database and backend platform benefiting from AI coding agents and a broader wave of non-engineer “builders.”
    • The CEO reported 13 million signups, up from about 3 million a year earlier; databases under management approaching 50 million, versus 8 million; and revenue expected to grow 4× that year.
    • The company is creating over 1 million databases per week. Its open-source approach, Postgres compatibility, and code-first tools were described as advantages for both developers and AI agents.
    • Supabase is expanding to serve both larger workloads and lightweight prototypes, including a proposed “Spark” tier. The CEO also cited an acquisition called Terso as part of its work on a Postgres-compatible, SQLite-compatible architecture.

Takeaways

  • Supabase is a private company, so the discussion does not provide a public stock ticker or a direct way for most investors to buy shares.
  • The business illustrates an investment theme: AI-driven demand for developer infrastructure and databases. The growth figures are strong, but the transcript does not provide valuation, profitability, or other information needed to assess whether the company is attractively priced.
  • Watch whether the company can support very large growth while serving both enterprise-scale customers and low-cost, early-stage users. The CEO specifically noted the challenge of doing both.

AI-Native Software Development (Investment Theme)

  • The speakers described a shift from software being built mainly by professional engineers to a wider group of people using AI agents to create customized apps.
    • Supabase said roughly 70% of new activity was coming from agents, and the CEO said signup, activation, and conversion trends were all improving.
    • Examples included a taxi driver building a local ride-hailing app and a founder building personal finance, health, and CRM tools.
    • The speakers expect databases and other infrastructure to become more important as individuals and businesses create more apps and store more personal or operational data.

Takeaways

  • The discussion supports a broad theme in AI software infrastructure: databases, hosting, testing, and tools that help agents build and maintain software may benefit as AI-generated applications spread.
  • This is a theme, not a specific stock recommendation. The transcript gives no price targets or investment timelines, and it does not establish which vendors will capture the most value.
  • The speakers also noted that the technology is changing quickly and that some ecosystem bets fail, making adaptability and product adoption important factors to monitor.

Amazon (AMZN) / AWS

  • AWS was discussed as an example of a platform that can attract startups early and grow with them. One speaker cited, without confirming the figure, a claim that 40% of AWS revenue comes from startups that began on the platform and later scaled.
  • The Supabase CEO said demand for computing resources is high and suggested infrastructure costs and availability are relevant to scaling database services.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlights the potential value of cloud infrastructure when startups grow into larger customers.
  • It does not offer a specific view on Amazon’s stock, valuation, or expected returns. The comments about AWS were illustrative rather than a recommendation.

MongoDB (MDB)

  • MongoDB was cited as part of the history of independent database companies, including its move toward MongoDB Atlas. The speakers said earlier companies helped show that database businesses could succeed outside the major hyperscalers.

Takeaways

  • The conversation offers a favorable industry-level precedent for standalone database companies, but it does not assess MongoDB’s current business or stock.
  • Investors considering database companies may want to examine whether they can retain customers as those customers’ applications grow; the speakers described customer migration between database providers as difficult.

Oracle (ORCL)

  • Oracle was mentioned as an example of the traditional database option that startups commonly used before newer database platforms gained traction.

Takeaways

  • Oracle appears only as historical context. The transcript does not express a bullish or bearish view on the company or its stock.

Alphabet (GOOGL) and Meta Platforms (META)

  • Firebase was described as having been acquired by Google, and Parse as having been acquired by Meta. The discussion used these products as examples of earlier backend platforms that helped establish the market for developer-focused database services.

Takeaways

  • These acquisitions illustrate the strategic value large technology companies have placed on developer tools and backend services.
  • The transcript does not discuss the current investment outlook for Alphabet or Meta.

Vertical SaaS and Startup Economics (Investment Theme)

  • The speakers said some vertical SaaS founders are finding it harder to raise Series A funding, even with $5 million to $10 million in annual recurring revenue.
  • At the same time, they suggested AI may let some software businesses reach $10 million to $50 million in revenue with teams of around 10 to 15 people, potentially making them profitable without large fundraises.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to a possible shift toward capital-efficient software companies: some may need less outside funding because AI can reduce the size of teams required to build and operate products.
  • Difficulty raising funding was explicitly raised as a challenge for vertical SaaS companies. The transcript does not say that all such companies will be profitable or able to scale with small teams.

Other Private Companies and Platforms Mentioned

  • Stripe was cited as an example of a company whose founder continued to focus on new ways of building; no investment view was offered.
  • Palantir was used as a comparison for a system that can structure and work with varied data; no stock view was offered.
  • OpenAI/ChatGPT, Bolt, Lovable, and Codex were discussed as part of the AI-building ecosystem. The speaker cited ChatGPT as having 1.2 billion weekly active users and used that figure to illustrate the potential scale of future database demand.
  • No cryptocurrency or specific crypto investment was mentioned.

Takeaways

  • These references reinforce the broader opportunity in AI software and developer tools, but the conversation does not provide specific recommendations, valuations, or return expectations for these companies.
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Episode Description
Supabase has become one of the default backends for the AI coding era. The open source Postgres platform now has 13 million users, spins up more than a million databases every week, and roughly 70% of its new activity is coming from agents.As coding shifts from developers writing software by hand to agents building on their behalf, Supabase has been rebuilding itself around that new user.Supabase co-founder and CEO Paul Copplestone joins Garry, Harj, and Jared on the Lightcone to talk about what happens when everyone can become a builder. They dive into why personal software may become as common as personal documents, how to design products that agents actually want to use, and why knowing what to build may matter more than knowing how to build it.
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