E187: Binance Founder: Nobody Realizes How Big The Next 10 Years Of Crypto Will Be
E187: Binance Founder: Nobody Realizes How Big The Next 10 Years Of Crypto Will Be
Podcast1 hr 4 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Treat Bitcoin’s $100,000-before-January-2027 forecast as a prediction-market view, not a target or guarantee; only 25% of traders expected it, and crypto-cycle timing is uncertain.
  • Watch for confirmed crypto-payment support from X as a potential adoption catalyst for BTC, ETH, and BNB; no launch or timeline was confirmed.
  • Consider BNB only with awareness that its outlook depends on both Binance and the broader crypto market, and that even established tokens can fall sharply.
  • Avoid chasing HYPE based on its past gains; evaluate token circulation, custody, and fundamentals, and treat early-stage crypto projects with caution given high failure rates.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • CZ described himself as consistently bullish on crypto but said his social-media posts do not control the market.
  • He said Bitcoin and other crypto assets may benefit if X adds cryptocurrency payments. He had read that X was discussing stablecoin payments and suggested that adding Bitcoin, Ethereum, or BNB could follow.
  • A prediction market cited in the interview showed 25% of traders expecting Bitcoin to exceed $100,000 before January 2027. This was presented as market sentiment, not as CZ’s price target.
  • CZ said crypto had historically followed four-year cycles, while also noting that predictions based on those cycles could point to a weak period around October.

Takeaways

  • Treat the $100,000 figure as a probability-market forecast, not a guarantee or a recommendation.
  • Adoption by large platforms such as X could support crypto use, but the discussion did not establish whether or when X will accept Bitcoin.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • CZ said Ethereum could potentially be added to X if the platform begins accepting stablecoins, describing the step as technically straightforward.
  • He expressed a broadly positive view of growth in crypto adoption, but gave no Ethereum-specific price target or recommendation.

Takeaways

  • Monitor whether major consumer platforms adopt crypto payments; the interview framed this as a possible adoption catalyst, not a confirmed development.

BNB

  • Binance’s native token, BNB, initially traded below its ICO price for roughly two and a half weeks after launch, which CZ said was a stressful period.
  • CZ said he remains a large BNB holder and believes BNB could benefit from growth in the wider crypto industry, not only from Binance’s centralized exchange.
  • He said BNB rose alongside other crypto assets after positive attention around Hyperliquid, illustrating how enthusiasm for one project can lift the broader market.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presents BNB as tied to both Binance and broader crypto-market activity; its prospects should not be assessed solely on exchange growth.
  • The early post-ICO decline is a reminder that even a prominent project’s token can fall below its offering price.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • CZ said Binance was not against Hyperliquid and welcomed competition from decentralized exchanges, arguing that more competition could help expand the overall market.
  • He identified not requiring KYC as one thing Hyperliquid does differently from Binance.
  • The interviewer described HYPE as having risen about 25 times over roughly two years and being among the top ten crypto assets at the time of the interview. CZ said he was no longer managing Binance and did not know the specific reason it had not listed HYPE.
  • CZ said the token had limited circulation for a period and suggested Binance may have wanted to ensure it could hold listed tokens directly, partly to manage counterparty risk.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlights decentralized trading as a growth area, but it does not establish that HYPE’s past performance will continue.
  • Consider token circulation, custody arrangements, and exchange-listing policies when evaluating a crypto project.

FTX and FTT

  • CZ said Binance decided to liquidate its remaining FTT after concerns came to light. He said his November 2022 post about the decision was intended as a public disclosure and that he did not expect the market reaction.
  • CZ attributed FTX’s collapse to the alleged misuse of customer funds and lack of liquidity, rather than to a single tweet.
  • He said FTX’s failure reflected broader business problems, including customers being unable to withdraw funds.

Takeaways

  • The interview underscores the importance of assessing how a crypto platform handles customer assets and manages liquidity.
  • FTT is discussed in the context of FTX’s collapse, not as an investment opportunity.

Crypto Tokens and Early-Stage Projects

  • CZ said most projects in new industries fail, while a small number may become very successful. He compared this pattern with internet and AI companies.
  • He argued that access to early-stage investments can create opportunity, but also acknowledged that whether retail investors should be allowed early access is debatable.
  • He said crypto projects can overhype their offerings or use ambiguous marketing, and that disclosure requirements are less established in crypto than in equity markets.
  • He encouraged investors to assess fundamentals rather than rely only on hype and marketing.
  • CZ said Binance-listed projects, like projects in other markets, will not all succeed. He also described memecoins as tokens driven by jokes, culture, and viral attention.

Takeaways

  • Evaluate a project’s fundamentals and disclosures rather than treating a listing or online popularity as proof of quality.
  • The transcript specifically warns that many projects fail and that hype can mislead investors; it does not identify a particular early-stage token to buy.

Stablecoins and Tokenization

  • CZ said tokenization and broader access to investment opportunities are part of Binance’s approach to expanding participation in markets.
  • He favored giving people access and education rather than automatically blocking them from early investment opportunities, while acknowledging that the right balance is debatable.
  • During discussion of the October 2025 crypto-market selloff, CZ referred to a technical issue involving an Ethena-related stablecoin on Binance. He said it was a relatively small issue and not the cause of the wider crash.

Takeaways

  • Tokenization and stablecoins were presented as areas of industry development, not as specific buy recommendations.
  • The interview’s discussion of market stress highlights that stablecoin-related technical issues can arise, even when CZ views them as limited in scale.

Crypto Exchanges and Decentralized Finance

  • CZ said most crypto users still prefer centralized exchanges, with familiar logins and customer support, but he believes the future will be more decentralized.
  • He said the crypto market remains small relative to its potential, estimating that crypto represents less than 1% of the market by value in his framing.
  • He described exchange security as a major operational concern. After Binance was hacked for $40 million in 2019, he said the company paused withdrawals for a week, upgraded its systems, and resumed trading after a few hours.
  • CZ said he would generally favor pausing withdrawals during a serious security incident until the situation is understood, even though that can inconvenience users.
  • He said Binance voluntarily paid about $800 million to compensate users affected by the October 2025 liquidation event, while maintaining that Binance did not cause the broader market crash.

Takeaways

  • The interview presents centralized and decentralized exchanges as competing but potentially complementary parts of a growing industry.
  • When assessing an exchange, pay attention to its security response, custody practices, and policies during disruptions; the transcript does not endorse a specific exchange as risk-free.

X (formerly Twitter)

  • CZ said he invested $500 million in Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter in 2022 and described Binance as a passive investor.
  • Asked about the possibility of X building a payments service centered on Bitcoin, he said, “go for it,” calling it positive for crypto.
  • CZ said X accepting stablecoins could make support for Bitcoin, Ethereum, or BNB a relatively small next step, but the discussion did not confirm that X will do so.

Takeaways

  • X’s potential role in crypto payments is an adoption theme to watch, but the interview provides no confirmed launch, timeline, or investment recommendation.
  • The cited $500 million was CZ’s historical investment in X, not a recommendation for listeners.

Artificial Intelligence (AI)

  • CZ said AI could drive efficiency improvements and accelerate future economic changes.
  • He said most AI companies will likely fail, while a small number could become enormously successful.
  • He used Anthropic as an example of a company investors might have wanted access to at an early stage, but did not recommend it or name a specific AI stock.
  • CZ also described AI-powered, personalized digital education as a potential long-term application. He said AI-generated storybooks had not appealed to children as much as stories designed by people with AI assistance.

Takeaways

  • AI was discussed as a broad investment and productivity theme, with the explicit caution that most companies in the sector may not succeed.
  • The interview did not identify a specific AI security, price target, or preferred company.

Public Equities and Investment Access

  • CZ argued that access to a strong stock market has helped many people build wealth, and said restricting access to early investments can limit opportunity.
  • He also acknowledged the counterargument: investment restrictions may be intended to protect less-experienced investors.
  • Nvidia and its CEO, Jensen Huang, were mentioned only as a hypothetical comparison about how a company with strong products, customers, and cash management should not be undone by a competitor’s tweet.
  • Alibaba, Google, and Facebook were cited as examples of companies that were not the first in their categories but later became major winners.

Takeaways

  • The discussion favors broad investment access but emphasizes the importance of education and evaluating fundamentals.
  • The companies cited were examples, not specific stock recommendations.

Crypto Investment Products and Services Mentioned in Sponsor Messages

  • Bitwise was described in the advertisement as a crypto asset manager with $11 billion in client assets and products including ETFs, index funds, separately managed accounts, and staking-related offerings.
  • Variational was advertised as an on-chain platform offering perpetual contracts across crypto, equities, commodities, foreign exchange, and pre-IPO names, with zero trading fees claimed in the ad.
  • Ethena was described in the ad as having more than $7 billion in stablecoin supply, with sUSDE said to offer an average 11% APY and to have had no depegs since launch. These are sponsor claims from the transcript, not independently verified here.
  • Jupiter was advertised as a DeFi app for on-chain trading and earning yield.
  • Cast was advertised as a stablecoin-focused money app for holding, moving, and spending stablecoins.

Takeaways

  • These services were presented in paid promotional segments, rather than as independently assessed investment recommendations.
  • Review product terms, fees, custody arrangements, and the source of any advertised yield before considering a crypto product.
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Episode Description
Changpeng Zhao (CZ), founder of Binance, opens up on why he's always bullish on Twitter, how a single tweet lined up with Bitcoin's 20% pump right before Trump's crypto speech, and why he believes crypto is still nowhere near saturated with less than 1% global penetration.  He also gets candid about growing up a second-generation immigrant in Canada, surviving the FTX collapse and a Binance hack, and his contrarian take on why the traditional education system is broken. THE SHIFT NEWSLETTER 💡Go beyond the mic - subscribe to The Shift, my new weekly newsletter where I share the uncut stories, raw takes, and behind-the-scenes notes from When Shift Happens: https://www.kevinfollonier.com/crypto-web3-newsletter ___________ PARTNERS ⚖️ Variational aggregates liquidity to offer industry-leading depth on stocks, commodities, and more digital assets: https://www.variational.io/ 🚀 Jupiter is a leading platform for digital asset trading and the largest of its kind on Solana: https://jup.ag/ 💳 KAST lets you manage and spend digital dollars with a Visa Card or Apple Pay. Live in 100+ countries - Get $20 Signup Bonus - https://go.kast.xyz/VqVO/SHIFT - promo code: SHIFT 🌱 Bitwise Asset Management manages $15B+ across 30+ digital asset investment products - ETFs, index funds, alpha, staking, and more. https://bitwiseinvestments.com/ ⚖️ Ethena is a synthetic dollar system built on Ethereum's network, offering a digitally-native, non-bank-dependent price-stable digital currency called USDe. It uses a delta-neutral hedging strategy with staked ETH to maintain a $1 peg. https://ethena.fi/ ♾️ Coinsilium provides vital funding and expert advice to Web3 and AI-powered early-stage technology companies. https://www.coinsilium.com 🚀 Kalshi is a US regulated exchange for trading on the outcomes of real-world events: ⁠https://kalshi.com/⁠ ___________ FOLLOW CHANGPENG ZHAO (CZ)👇 Twitter: https://x.com/cz_binance FOLLOW WHEN SHIFT HAPPENS Twitter (X): https://x.com/KevinWSHPod   Instagram:  https://www.instagram.com/kevinfollonier_  TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@kevinfollonier_ Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kevinfollonier/ Website: https://kevinfollonier.com/ DISCLAIMER The info contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial, legal, or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speakers who are not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses considerable risk of loss. The speakers do not guarantee any particular outcome. #CryptoNews, #JupiterDEX, #SolanaEcosystem, #DeFiInsights, #DEXAggregator, #CryptoTrading, #Web4, #BlockchainFuture, #TokenEconomics, #CryptoCommunity, #DeFiGrowth, #CryptoAdoption, #FintechRevolution, #CryptoMistakes, #FoundersStory, #CryptoBuilders, #DeFiRevenue, #CryptoVolume, #CryptoCulture, #Web3ToWeb4, #CryptoInnovation, #SolanaDEX, #CryptoProduct, #BlockchainStrategy 0:00 Introduction 2:01 Life on the Road 3:33 Who Are You? 4:07 Becoming a Top-20 Billionaire 5:14 Growing Up Poor in Canada 6:45 His Sister's Career 7:35 Avoiding "Third Gen Degenerate" 8:07 Binance's First Day 10:05 Sponsor: Variational & Bitwise 10:58 The Early Team 12:32 What Hardworking Means 13:35 Misconceptions About Binance 14:24 Why Listed Projects Disappoint 16:54 Can Retail Ever Win? 18:58 Origin of the "4" Meme 20:55 Tweeting "4" and Meaning It 21:29 The FTX Tweet, Full Story 25:13 Hardest Period of His Life 26:05 Prison, Not Knowing When 27:48 Did Anyone Disappear? 28:31 Sponsor: Kast 29:18 The Pardon Process 32:20 Pardon: Politics or Justice? 34:32 Advice for Elon 35:44 Bybit Hack: Was Ben Right? 36:42 2019 Hack and the Red Button 41:18 Hyperliquid as a Threat? 45:07 Why Hype Isn't on Binance 46:31 The 10/10 Crash Villain 50:47 Tweeting "4" on the Crash? 51:31 Sponsor: Jupiter & Ethena 52:14 His Crypto Legacy 53:56 Giggle Academy 1:00:56 Can CZ Move the Market? 1:03:30 Outro
About When Shift Happens Podcast
When Shift Happens Podcast

When Shift Happens Podcast

By Kevin Follonier

I sit down every week with the most based people in crypto. My goal is to create a safe space to have the deepest and most real conversations with the biggest builders and investors in the industry, as well as to help educate the mainstream people, politicians, celebrities and big Web2 entrepreneurs coming into Web3. Hopefully this platform does its little part in onboarding as many people as possible into the incredible world of opportunities that Web 3 offers, while staying true to crypto’s core values and ethos. Thank you for watching.