Consider Bitcoin (BTC) as a core long-term holding to hedge against inflation, with a potential market peak forecasted around 2027-2028. For exposure to the growing stablecoin market, Ethena (ENA) is a high-conviction play expected to benefit from upcoming token buybacks. Another key project is Ether.fi (ETHFI), which aims to bridge crypto with real-world spending through its payment card. In the decentralized exchange space, Hyperliquid (HYP) is a project to watch, with a potential price target of $5,000 by 2028. For diversification outside of crypto, consider undervalued gold miners as a leveraged bet on a rising gold price.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Arthur Hayes describes Bitcoin as "probably the safest thing that someone can invest in" within the crypto space due to its rock-solid technology proven over 15 years.
• He holds the majority of his personal crypto wealth in Bitcoin.
• His investment benchmark for all other crypto ventures is whether they can outperform Bitcoin. He states that most people would be better off just buying and holding Bitcoin.
• Bullish Sentiment: Hayes believes it is still "early" for Bitcoin, even at high prices. His reasoning is that governments will continue to print money, and Bitcoin will outperform all other assets (bonds, gold, stocks) designed to preserve wealth against inflation.
• Price Target: While not a formal prediction, he entertains the idea of Bitcoin reaching $1 million and suggests there's no reason it would stop there, given the dynamics of money printing.
• Timeline: He sees the current bull market peaking around the 2027-2028 timeframe.

Takeaways

• Consider Bitcoin as a core, long-term holding in an investment portfolio, primarily as a hedge against the devaluation of fiat currencies like the US dollar.
• The primary investment thesis is the belief that governments will continue to expand the money supply, making scarce assets like Bitcoin more valuable over time.
• Don't be deterred by the high price; the long-term potential could still be significant if the macro thesis plays out.

Stablecoin Ecosystem

• Hayes is extremely bullish on the US dollar stablecoin narrative, calling it one of his "highest conviction bets."
• He believes the US government will implicitly or explicitly push for global adoption of USD stablecoins to fight de-dollarization and create demand for US Treasury bonds.
• He predicts "massive growth" in the stablecoin market cap, which he estimates is currently around $250 billion.
• He advises against investing in new stablecoin issuers, as he believes the market is already dominated by Tether, Circle, and Ethena. The real opportunity lies in the technology layer that supports the ecosystem.

Takeaways

• The growth of US dollar stablecoins is a major investment theme to watch.
• Instead of betting on a new stablecoin to win, consider investing in the "picks and shovels" – the infrastructure and technology that enable businesses and individuals to use stablecoins.

Ethena (ENA)

• Hayes is "very bullish" on Ethena and it is the largest position in his fund's portfolio.
• He highlights its stablecoin, USDe, as the fastest-growing US dollar stablecoin in crypto history.
• He believes the governance token, ENA, will perform well because the protocol is expected to begin buying back its own tokens, which would create buying pressure and return value to holders.

Takeaways

• Ethena (ENA) is a specific, high-conviction project to research for direct exposure to the stablecoin growth narrative.
• The planned token buybacks could act as a positive catalyst for the ENA token price.

Ether.fi (ETHFI)

• Hayes is "super bullish" on Ether.fi, an early investment of his fund, which he sees evolving into a "crypto neobank."
• The key feature is the EtherFi card, which allows users to spend their crypto holdings in the real world via the Visa network. He calls it the "AMEX of crypto," targeting affluent crypto natives.
• The platform allows users to earn staking yield on their ETH and simultaneously borrow against it for spending, a feature traditional banks cannot offer.

Takeaways

• Ether.fi (ETHFI) represents a strong play on the theme of bridging crypto with real-world finance and spending.
• Projects that provide utility and allow users to "live off" their crypto assets without selling them could have significant growth potential.

Hyperliquid (HYP)

• Hayes praises Hyperliquid as a prime example of a project with a successful business model: it generates real revenue from users and returns that value directly to token holders.
• He contrasts this with older projects like DYDX that failed to share revenue, leading to poor token performance.
• Price Target: He believes HYP could potentially reach $5,000 by 2028, driven by the massive growth he anticipates in the perpetuals (perps) trading market.
• Risk Factor: He notes a significant risk is the "chatification moment" where competitors offer zero-fee trading, which could undermine Hyperliquid's revenue-based value proposition.

Takeaways

• When evaluating altcoins, prioritize projects that have a clear path to generating revenue and a mechanism (like buybacks or revenue sharing) to return that value to token holders.
• Hyperliquid (HYP) is a project to watch in the decentralized exchange space, but investors must be aware of the intense competition and the risk of fee compression.

Gold & Gold Miners

• In addition to crypto, Hayes invests in gold and gold miners as part of his traditional finance portfolio.
• He views gold as the preferred "real money" for central banks looking to diversify away from the US dollar.
• He believes gold miners are currently very undervalued relative to the price of gold, offering a potentially leveraged play on the same anti-fiat theme as Bitcoin.

Takeaways

• For investors looking for diversification outside of crypto, gold and gold miners offer exposure to a similar theme of wealth preservation against currency debasement.
• Gold miners can be a more volatile, higher-reward way to bet on a rising gold price, but as Hayes notes, market timing is critical.

General Market Outlook & Strategy

• Macro Timeline: Hayes operates on a long-term macro cycle. He predicts the current bull market will peak around 2027-2028, followed by a "generational collapse in all assets" in 2029-2030.
• Buying Strategy: The 2029-2030 collapse would be the next prime buying opportunity when there is "blood in the streets." His fund made its best recent investments during the bear market of late 2022 and early 2023 when prices were low.
• Selling Strategy: He plans to "sell everything" when he senses that market expectations are shifting and people no longer believe money will be printed at a high rate.
• Altcoin ("Shitcoin") Strategy: He uses speculative altcoins to try and earn more Bitcoin. The goal is to find projects that can 10x-100x over a 2-3 year period and then take profit back into Bitcoin.

Takeaways

• The best investment opportunities often appear during bear markets when fear is high and prices are low. Avoid chasing projects that are already up significantly in a bull market.
• Pay attention to the macro-economic environment, particularly the actions and rhetoric of central banks regarding money printing.
• Consider having a long-term plan that includes taking profits during market peaks and having cash ready for major market downturns.