Will We Get a Q4 Crypto Rally? with Andy and Robbie from The Rollup
Will We Get a Q4 Crypto Rally? with Andy and Robbie from The Rollup
17 hours ago•VirtualBacon•@virtualbacon
YouTube1 hr 39 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Bitcoin (BTC) is the clearest long-term conviction: consider gradual exposure, with the discussion’s $75,000 weekly-close level as a risk checkpoint and a highly uncertain $150,000–$300,000 scenario over one to three years.
  • For a shorter-term trade, the host favored NEAR or Bittensor (TAO) over the next quarter, viewing TAO as higher-upside and NEAR as more likely to sustain a rally; no price targets were provided.
  • Zcash (ZEC) offers a higher-risk privacy and quantum-resilience thesis, but the host considered it no longer cheap and favored trading rallies over holding it for the full cycle.
  • Monitor Brent crude near $115 as a potential warning level for inflation and risk assets; the discussion provided no specific oil trade.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The guests viewed Bitcoin as the leading digital store-of-value asset and said it could reach $150,000–$300,000 over the next one to three years. They described a broader long-term thesis of Bitcoin reaching $10 trillion in market value, while noting that could take decades.
  • The guests were bullish on Bitcoin’s ability to hold up amid difficult conditions. One said it was holding near $80,000 despite macroeconomic, political, and liquidity headwinds.
  • The host also remained bullish, arguing that many potential headwinds had already occurred without causing a deeper sell-off. The host considered a short-term dip to roughly $76,000–$78,000 possible, and said $75,000 was a key weekly-close level for managing risk.
  • The host argued that a gradual, uneven advance would be consistent with an early bull market and cautioned that pullbacks are normal. The guests were also constructive but allowed that a rally might arrive in Q4 or Q1.
  • The discussion raised quantum computing as a risk to some older, inactive Bitcoin wallets. The speakers emphasized that the main challenge may be coordinating what to do with inaccessible coins, including Satoshi Nakamoto’s, rather than simply updating Bitcoin’s software.

Takeaways

  • The discussion’s overall Bitcoin stance was bullish, but speakers acknowledged uncertainty about timing and the possibility of further declines.
  • Treat the $75,000–$78,000 levels as the host’s stated risk framework, not as a guaranteed floor or a consensus forecast.
  • The quantum discussion highlights a long-term governance and coordination risk; it does not establish a near-term threat to Bitcoin’s network.

Zcash (ZEC)

  • The guests framed Zcash as a possible “silver” to Bitcoin’s “gold”: a complementary store-of-value asset with privacy features, rather than a replacement for Bitcoin.
  • They described Zcash as roughly 1.5% of Bitcoin’s market value and said matching the gold-to-silver market-cap ratio would imply about $1,200 per ZEC under their stated Bitcoin-price assumptions. They noted that Zcash had already risen from around $400 to $1,200.
  • The guests saw potential for additional value from private payments and use in decentralized finance. They also argued that Zcash could benefit from increased concern about privacy and quantum computing.
  • They described Zcash as one of the more quantum-ready networks and cited the planned Tachyon upgrade, which they said could arrive by the end of the year or in Q1 2027.
  • The guests outlined a possible long-term Zcash valuation of $1 trillion–$2 trillion, based on their store-of-value thesis. This was a bullish scenario, not a near-term price target.
  • The host was more cautious about holding Zcash at its then-current price. The host said Zcash was no longer cheap, expected it might perform roughly in line with Bitcoin from that point, and described trading it around market rallies rather than holding it for the rest of the cycle.

Takeaways

  • The bullish case presented was based on privacy, possible quantum resilience, and a complementary role alongside Bitcoin—not on replacing Bitcoin.
  • The transcript contains contrasting approaches: the guests expressed a longer-term thesis, while the host emphasized valuation and trading rather than long-term holding.
  • The $1,200 figure was tied to a relative-value comparison, while the $1 trillion–$2 trillion figure was a long-term scenario; neither was presented as a guaranteed outcome.

NEAR (NEAR)

  • The guests said NEAR Intents helps route transactions across different blockchain ecosystems, including networks that are harder to connect through conventional interoperability tools.
  • They argued that this infrastructure helped make Zcash more usable in decentralized finance by enabling access to on-chain financial services.
  • They described NEAR.com as a self-custodial interface for activities such as trading perpetuals, swapping, sending, receiving, and earning yield, with privacy features.
  • The guests said NEAR’s token was fully vested and that the team was reducing inflation. They described transaction revenue and token buybacks as part of a plan to offset emissions and eventually create a positive financial flywheel. They also said emissions still exceeded revenue and buybacks at the time of the discussion.
  • The guests disclosed that they hold NEAR and have worked with the NEAR team.

Takeaways

  • The investment thesis discussed centered on cross-chain trading infrastructure, privacy features, and the possibility that revenue could support token value over time.
  • The buyback and reduced-emissions case depends on execution; the guests said the economics had not yet reached a positive balance.
  • The guests’ disclosed holdings are relevant context when weighing their bullish views.

Stablecoins and Stablecoin Companies

  • The guests said institutional adoption of stablecoins for payments, remittances, and settlement could expand substantially.
  • One guest relayed that a mid-sized commercial bank was reportedly preparing to move a large share of these activities onto stablecoin rails, with a launch expected around April or May of the following year. The bank and blockchain were not named, so this was unverified information in the discussion.
  • The guests suggested stablecoin issuance could grow significantly if banks enter the market.
  • Circle was cited as a publicly listed way to gain exposure to the stablecoin sector. Tether was described as private, and Frax was mentioned as another stablecoin project.

Takeaways

  • The opportunity discussed was growth in stablecoin use by financial institutions, rather than a specific stablecoin purchase recommendation.
  • The bank launch and issuance projections were presented as reported plans, not confirmed outcomes.
  • Circle, Tether, and Frax have different ownership and investment structures; the transcript did not provide valuation analysis or specific price targets for them.

Tokenized Equities and Securities

  • The guests described institutional interest in bringing equities and other financial products onto blockchain networks, arguing that tokenization could eventually support 24-hour markets.
  • They said the DTCC had announced a tokenization service for 34 securities, described as one-to-one backed, transferable among eligible wallets, and subject to embedded compliance requirements.
  • The guests said the DTCC’s rollout involved Canton Network, with Arc and Stellar also expected to be involved.
  • They also described resistance from public companies whose shares could be tokenized. According to the guests, more than half of 62 companies initially identified for a tokenized-equities platform had opted out. Coca-Cola, JPMorgan, and Microsoft were among the names mentioned as opting out.
  • The guests characterized tokenization as a long-term trend, while acknowledging that issuers may resist it.

Takeaways

  • Tokenized securities were presented as a potentially significant financial-infrastructure theme, but adoption and issuer consent remain important uncertainties.
  • The DTCC announcement is a concrete development cited in the discussion; broader claims about eventual market-wide tokenization are long-term views, not a guarantee.
  • The named companies were discussed in the context of opting out of tokenization—not as stock picks or views on their underlying businesses.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH)

  • One guest argued that Bitcoin Cash’s role as a currency could lose ground to Zcash, which the guest viewed as a more private alternative for payments.
  • The guest cited Bitcoin Cash’s market value as roughly $5.5 billion at the time and suggested it could deteriorate over the coming years. This was the guest’s opinion, not a stated consensus.

Takeaways

  • The bearish view was specific to the prospect that users seeking private digital money may prefer Zcash.
  • The transcript did not provide a Bitcoin Cash price target or a timing estimate beyond “over the coming years.”

Gold and Silver

  • The guests used gold and silver as analogies for Bitcoin and Zcash: Bitcoin as the larger store-of-value asset and Zcash as a possible smaller counterpart.
  • Separately, the host said rising oil prices could put pressure on gold, which the host described as near $4,000 at the time.

Takeaways

  • The gold–silver comparison was used to explain the guests’ relative-value thesis for Bitcoin and Zcash; it was not a direct recommendation to buy either metal.
  • The host’s gold concern was tied to the potential effects of higher oil prices, not to a long-term view on gold.

Oil (Brent Crude)

  • The host said Brent crude was above $111 per barrel and approaching a two-year high. The host identified a move above $115 as a potential market shock.
  • The host argued that higher oil prices could raise inflation pressure, affect the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions, and weigh on risk assets and gold.
  • A lasting ceasefire or peace deal involving Russia or Iran was cited as a possible catalyst for lower oil prices.

Takeaways

  • In the host’s framework, oil was a near-term macro risk to watch because of its potential effects on inflation, interest rates, and broader markets.
  • The $115 level was presented as a potential warning point, not a forecast that oil would necessarily cross it.

U.S. Dollar, Treasury Yields, and the S&P 500

  • The host said the U.S. dollar index (DXY) was rising and argued that a stronger dollar can weigh on Bitcoin and other risk assets.
  • The host also said the 10-year Treasury yield needed to continue falling for market conditions to improve.
  • The host described the bond market as behaving more favorably than oil at the time, and said lower yields, a weaker dollar, and a stable oil price would be supportive for the S&P 500 and other risk assets.

Takeaways

  • The host’s macro framework focused on oil, the dollar, and Treasury yields as key indicators for risk-asset conditions.
  • These were market-monitoring observations, not specific trades or price targets for bonds, currencies, or the S&P 500.

AI and Quantum-Related Crypto Themes

  • The guests connected privacy and quantum resistance to broader investment narratives, particularly in Zcash and NEAR.
  • The host said quantum concerns could attract more attention over the current cycle, but also distinguished quantum computing from the AI investment theme.
  • The host mentioned Algorand as a quantum-related project and American Fortress as a project intended to add quantum-resistant and private capabilities across blockchains. The host disclosed being an investor in American Fortress but said they had not yet tested its product.
  • The host said there were relatively few crypto projects addressing quantum resistance, which could concentrate attention if the theme grows.

Takeaways

  • The theme discussed is speculative and depends on both technical development and increased investor attention.
  • The host’s investment in American Fortress is a disclosed conflict to consider; the product had not yet been tested by the host at the time of the discussion.

Bittensor (TAO)

  • When asked to choose an altcoin to trade over the next quarter, the host named NEAR or TAO, describing both as AI-related choices.
  • The host said TAO might have more upside than NEAR, while NEAR might have a higher chance of continuing a rally. The host framed this as a trade, not a long-term holding recommendation.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view was conditional on the next quarter and on the market’s changing narratives.
  • No price target was given, and the host cautioned that the preferred altcoin could change over time.

Render (RENDER)

  • The host described Render as an AI-related coin that was “good” and “on a dip,” and said it was among the projects they considered cheap at the time.
  • The host did not provide a specific price target or a detailed comparison with other AI-related tokens.

Takeaways

  • The positive view was broad and tied to the AI theme and the host’s assessment that the coin was down from recent levels.
  • The transcript did not establish a specific entry price, holding period, or expected return.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • The host described Hyperliquid as a revenue-generating business with a strong exchange as its main advantage.
  • The host said the project could have further upside but was already large, and might outperform Bitcoin only modestly from that point.
  • The host viewed HyperEVM as a useful addition for building applications, but not as a uniquely strong layer-1 or layer-2 technology on its own.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view was positive on the exchange business but more measured on the token’s relative upside.
  • The distinction made in the discussion was between Hyperliquid’s exchange as its main strength and HyperEVM as a complementary feature.

Other Cryptoassets Mentioned

  • Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP were mentioned as examples of assets that some forward-looking asset managers were reportedly considering for client exposure. No specific allocations or recommendations were given.
  • Litecoin (LTC) and Dogecoin (DOGE) were mentioned as past candidates for Bitcoin’s “silver” role. The guests argued that Zcash has a stronger current case based on privacy and quantum-readiness.
  • Toncoin / Gram was described by the host as a project with a large Telegram user base, but the host said its future performance would depend on how deeply the token becomes integrated with the platform.
  • Basic Attention Token (BAT) was discussed in relation to the Brave browser. The host cited Brave’s user base, built-in wallet, and AI search features, but said the key question was how closely BAT would be integrated into the business.
  • Algorand (ALGO) was mentioned as a quantum-related project, but the transcript offered no detailed investment view.
  • Pearl and Qantas were discussed as relatively specialized assets that could become easier to trade through NEAR’s cross-chain interface. The host described access and liquidity as potential advantages but gave no price targets.
  • The host said Aerodrome, Virtual, and Banker were possible ways to gain exposure to the Base ecosystem, describing them as projects with products the host considered legitimate. No specific targets were given.

Takeaways

  • These mentions were brief and varied in conviction; they should not be interpreted as a uniform endorsement.
  • The host generally described altcoins as trades rather than long-term holdings, and emphasized that relative attractiveness could change with market narratives and Bitcoin’s price action.

Anthropic IPO

  • The guests mentioned that an Anthropic IPO filing had appeared and said the market would need to absorb the related liquidity impact.
  • No ticker, offering price, valuation, or investment recommendation was provided.

Takeaways

  • The transcript raised the IPO as a possible market-liquidity consideration, not as a specific investment opportunity with terms available for evaluation.
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Bitcoin, the altcoins on my watchlist and today's market news, with your questions live. Live every weekday at 10:30 AM ET. ---------------------------------------------------- All Exchanges and Links ✅ FOMO Social Trading: https://bacon.link/fomo (Follow my real on-chain trades live. Real money on my actual account, so you see exactly what I hold, my size, and my entries) ✅ Toobit Exchange: https://bacon.link/toobit ($50 Free Bonus, No Verification Required) ✅ PropW: https://bacon.link/propw (Trade a $50K Funded Account) ✅ Bitunix Exchange: https://bacon.link/bitunix ($5,500 Bonus, no KYC) ✅ ByBit Exchange: https://bacon.link/bybit ($30,000 Bonus, KYC Needed) 🧰 Toobit Agent Trade Kit (connect an AI agent to the exchange): https://www.toobit.com/agent-tradekit 💎 Join The Coiners, our Trading Dashboard and Community: https://thecoiners.io 📢 Follow my X for Quick Alpha: https://x.com/virtualbacon 📢 Telegram, the daily market briefing and live alerts: https://t.me/virtualbacon 📢 Courses, Exchange Guides, and All Links: https://virtualbacon.com/ ----------------------------------------------------- My Other Videos 8 Years of Crypto Trading Advice in 40 Minutes 👉 https://youtu.be/p9iEJgFReB8 Crypto Investing for Beginners, Full Course 👉 https://youtu.be/niT7g4ghm3o ----------------------------------------------------- Chapters 0:00:00 Live open 0:03:16 Today's agenda: Andy and Robbie from The Rollup 0:09:24 FOMC today: why a pause is already priced in 0:10:49 Andy and Robbie join, fresh off Singapore 0:12:56 Zcash turns 10: the second store of value thesis 0:15:57 Zcash as silver to Bitcoin's gold 0:17:28 Private money and the Bitcoin Cash comparison 0:18:58 What sets Zcash apart: privacy and quantum readiness 0:23:46 Zcash as a hedge on a Bitcoin bag 0:25:32 How NEAR Intents unlocked Zcash 0:29:13 The NEAR token thesis: lower inflation, fee buybacks 0:34:08 The Bridge: what Wall Street said about tokenization 0:35:38 A mid-sized bank moving payments on chain with stablecoins 0:38:09 The tokenization power struggle: over half of 62 companies opt out 0:39:41 DTCC's tokenization service goes live with 34 securities 0:42:13 Q4 rally: where we are in the cycle 0:47:46 The Fed calendar: 96% odds of a pause, 77.9% for a December hike 0:50:20 Brent crude above $111, a two-year high 0:52:52 The DXY keeps climbing, then the 10-year yield 0:56:09 What it all means for Bitcoin: just a correction, the bad news is priced in 1:00:30 My base case: drop and chop in an early bull run 1:04:02 Chat: was I paid to push Zcash? 1:11:40 If I had to trade one altcoin next quarter 1:13:18 Hyper EVM, Telegram's coin, Render and the Base ecosystem 1:15:45 Brave and the BAT token 1:18:46 Is quantum fake? 1:20:48 Can Bitcoin hard fork around quantum? The Satoshi coins problem 1:27:53 Who is Satoshi? 1:29:34 Trading alts one Bitcoin leg at a time 1:31:35 Quantum-resistant projects, with a disclosure 1:35:40 Was Bitcoin made by the deep state? 1:38:42 Wrap-up ----------------------------------------------------- 📜 Disclaimer 📜 The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial, legal, or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses a considerable risk of loss. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome.
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VirtualBacon

VirtualBacon

By @virtualbacon

I'm Dennis, a Crypto angel investor with 100+ startups in our portfolio. On this channel I share my views on market trends and investing strategy for Crypto.