Arthur Hayes says the Bitcoin bear market ended at $58,000, and a Fed rate hike next week would not change that.
Arthur co-founded BitMEX, the exchange that invented the perpetual swap in 2016, and now runs Maelstrom, his family office, as Chief Investment Officer. We recorded on 8 September, two weeks before BitMEX shuts down for good and one week before the Fed meets with the market pricing a hike. His argument is that none of that is what moves Bitcoin. The Treasury doubled its long-end buybacks, the Fed is buying bills through Reserve Management Purchases, and Japan is being asked to repatriate $2 trillion, which is why he thinks yield curve control is coming and why he only tracks the quantity of money, not its price.
WHAT WE GET INTO
▸ Why the $58,000 liquidation candle was the bottom, and what the $63,000 to $82,000 rip in six trading days was really about
▸ The three signals that told him the Fed is trapped: Warsh holding rates, Japan's repatriation order, and the buyback upsize
▸ Why raising rates is inflationary once debt is this high, and why he says the rate is almost irrelevant to Bitcoin
▸ His altcoin book: Ethereum as the most hated mega cap, Ethena's 5x target, Uniswap to $20, and why Hyperliquid is too big for the same return
▸ FLOP, his new network that pays AI agents in compute: no presale, no VC allocation, and how to mine it on a rented GPU
Recorded 8 September 2026.
Follow Arthur on X: https://x.com/CryptoHayes
His essays: https://cryptohayes.substack.com
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MY OTHER VIDEOS
8 Years of Crypto Trading Advice in 40 Minutes 👉 https://youtu.be/p9iEJgFReB8
Crypto Investing for Beginners, Full Course 👉 https://youtu.be/niT7g4ghm3o
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Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:39 BitMEX shuts down on its own terms
3:10 The bear market ended at $58K
6:36 Warsh held rates: the Fed is already printing
8:41 Japan is told to bring $2 trillion home
10:41 The buyback upsize is yield curve control
11:51 Short gamma: why $63K to $82K took six days
13:02 What actually moves Bitcoin, in plain English
14:44 The dollar has to get weaker
17:16 Control the yield or the currency, not both
18:55 Why a rate hike is almost irrelevant
20:01 Hiking rates is inflationary under fiscal dominance
22:35 Is it time for altcoins yet?
23:33 Ethereum: the most hated mega cap
24:27 Ethena and Uniswap: tokens that pay holders
28:06 Do L2 tokens deserve a bid?
30:08 Why Robinhood built on Ethereum
31:30 Hyperliquid: best DEX, too big for 5x
34:29 FLOP: what are you actually paying for?
37:03 Food for your AI agent
39:05 A token launched the Bitcoin way: no presale
43:07 Why FLOP compute starts out almost free
45:17 Agents that eat, remember and coordinate
47:08 How to mine FLOP on a rented GPU
49:31 The airdrop: TechnoCore and 13 million agents
51:35 Dennis's to-do list and the anti-Sybil rule
54:27 Where to find Arthur
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📜 Disclaimer 📜
The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial, legal, or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses a considerable risk of loss. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome.
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