When Will Bitcoin Hit a New All-Time High? Comparing Last Three Cycles
When Will Bitcoin Hit a New All-Time High? Comparing Last Three Cycles
17 hours ago•VirtualBacon•@virtualbacon
YouTube1 hr 20 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider Bitcoin (BTC) as a long-term core holding, but expect choppy trading; the cited support zone is $75,000–$78,000, with a clearer breakout signal above $93,000.
  • Accumulate selectively rather than broadly chasing altcoins, recognizing they could fall another 10%–15%; the speaker’s illustrative mix was 80% BTC / 20% altcoins, not a universal allocation.
  • Watch Near Protocol (NEAR) near $4.50 as a possible entry area, while allowing for further declines below that level.
  • If holding altcoins, plan profit-taking in advance: the speaker’s example was to convert half of altcoin exposure to BTC near $125,000–$130,000 BTC, then reassess near $170,000.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The speaker is bullish on Bitcoin but expects the market may remain choppy before its next major advance.
  • Comparing three past cycles, the speaker estimates a possible 200–230 days of consolidation after a bull-market confirmation—roughly through April of next year in the timeline discussed.
  • The speaker’s base case is a range of about $75,000–$90,000, with $75,000–$78,000 described as an important support area and $89,000–$90,000 as a possible near-term resistance or rally target.
  • A move above roughly $93,000 would signal a clearer breakout in the speaker’s analysis. The speaker considers a push toward the prior all-time high more likely around Q2 of next year, with an all-time-high retest potentially later.
  • The speaker said $100,000 before April would be an unusually volatile outcome, not the base case. In that scenario, a correction toward roughly $74,000–$80,000 could still occur.
  • The speaker described $125,000–$130,000 as the area of a future all-time-high push and said $170,000 was a plausible later target. These are the speaker’s estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s strategy is to buy and hold Bitcoin through a potentially lengthy consolidation rather than assume that a slower market means the bull trend is over.
  • For investors following this view, the key levels discussed are $75,000–$78,000 for support and $93,000 for a clearer breakout; the speaker’s analysis depends on those levels holding or being surpassed.
  • The speaker cautions that a fast move toward $100,000 could bring sharp swings and a deep pullback, so an early rally would not necessarily mean the market has become less risky.

Altcoins (broad market)

  • The speaker believes altcoins are generally inexpensive and said the current consolidation could offer a window to accumulate before Bitcoin’s next major breakout.
  • In the speaker’s historical comparisons, altcoins often rose during early Bitcoin bull-market phases, though they could be choppier and might not outperform Bitcoin.
  • One downside scenario discussed was another 10%–15% decline in the altcoin market if Bitcoin moved sideways. The speaker also noted that individual altcoins could fall further before a broad rally.
  • The speaker distinguished between two approaches: accumulating selected altcoins during quiet conditions, or waiting to trade more actively after Bitcoin breaks out. The latter may mean buying into a more crowded, volatile market.
  • The speaker advised avoiding scams and coins that have already risen sharply in a straight line. They did not provide specific price targets for most altcoins.

Takeaways

  • The discussion supports a selective, staged approach, not an assumption that every altcoin will rise equally. The speaker’s preference is to focus on projects or narratives an investor understands and avoid chasing sharp rallies.
  • The speaker described buying altcoins now as an opportunity, but also acknowledged possible further declines and greater volatility than Bitcoin.
  • For investors considering altcoins, the speaker’s example portfolio was 80% Bitcoin and 20% altcoins at the outset. This was a personal illustration, not a recommendation for every investor.

AI-related crypto assets

  • The speaker called AI a likely major crypto narrative and suggested investors who favor the theme could focus on AI-related coins rather than trying to identify one guaranteed winner.
  • Fetch was discussed as an AI coin. The speaker said it had fallen substantially and was moving sideways, but gave no price target and did not claim it would outperform other AI tokens.
  • Bittensor (TAO) was described as inexpensive relative to some competing AI projects. The speaker argued that negative sentiment toward TAO could create an opportunity if interest in AI crypto returns.
  • ZeroG (0G) was characterized by the speaker as a good project, with compute resources, capital, and work on decentralized inference. No price target was given.
  • The speaker also mentioned AI-related crypto exposure among their areas of interest, including decentralized inference.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s thesis is that renewed interest in AI could lift a range of AI-related crypto assets, but the transcript does not establish which token will lead or provide a reliable way to compare them.
  • Treat the broad AI theme as a starting point for research, not as evidence that a specific token will rise. The speaker explicitly warned against assuming there is one coin that must outperform all others.
  • The transcript also discussed AI-enabled software vulnerabilities as a concern, while the speaker said they did not see that particular news as a reason to abandon their market outlook. That view is not a guarantee against future security-related shocks.

Near Protocol (NEAR)

  • The speaker identified $4.50–$5.40 as a prior consolidation range and said a move below it—especially a capitulation near $4.50—could be an attractive buying area.
  • The speaker also said NEAR was “very soon” among the altcoins approaching a cheap zone, and mentioned RIA and Aurora in connection with NEAR’s correction. No separate price targets for those assets were provided.

Takeaways

  • The only specific entry level discussed was around $4.50, framed as a possible buying area by the speaker, not as a guaranteed floor.
  • The speaker’s assessment depends partly on NEAR remaining in a correction; investors should account for the possibility that the price could fall below the cited zone.

Gold

  • The speaker gave a mixed assessment of gold. They noted that gold was around $4,000 and had moved below a roughly 40-week moving average, which they viewed as a bearish technical signal.
  • On the other hand, the speaker said falling 10-year Treasury yields and a weakening U.S. dollar index (DXY) could support gold. They described a DXY move below 100, alongside lower yields, as a potentially favorable setup.
  • The speaker said they would view a recovery above the 40-week moving average as a stronger sign that gold could resume an uptrend.

Takeaways

  • The speaker did not give a firm gold recommendation: the macro conditions discussed were supportive, while the technical trend was weak.
  • The speaker said Bitcoin looked clearer to them than gold at the time. The transcript does not provide a gold price target.

Other named altcoins

  • The speaker listed Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), XRP, Dogecoin (DOGE), Zcash (ZEC), and Injective (INJ) among coins they considered inexpensive or worth watching.
  • They also named Stellar (XLM), IOTA (IOTA), Algorand (ALGO), Hedera (HBAR), and XDC Network (XDC) as “ISO 20022” coins, while saying they personally held only some XRP at that time.
  • Cardano (ADA) and Polkadot (DOT) were described as likely to rise somewhat in a bull market, but the speaker did not expect them to outperform many alternatives.
  • The speaker also mentioned Monero (XMR), Shiba Inu (SHIB), Chainlink (LINK), Quant (QNT), Stacks (STX), Casper (CSPR), Tezos (XTZ), Litecoin (LTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), and Bitcoin SV (BSV). The comments were broad: some might rise in a bull market, but the speaker did not consider all of them equally attractive.
  • No specific price targets were given for these assets.

Takeaways

  • These mentions reflect the speaker’s generally bullish view of altcoins during an early Bitcoin bull-market phase, not a detailed investment case for each coin.
  • The speaker acknowledged that some named assets may rise without outperforming other coins. Investors should not treat the list as a set of equivalent opportunities.

Altcoin allocation and profit-taking approach

  • In response to a question about when to sell altcoins, the speaker said they would not necessarily exit all altcoin exposure as soon as Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high.
  • As a personal example, the speaker described maintaining about 80% Bitcoin and 20% altcoins initially. If altcoins’ gains shifted the portfolio to 60% Bitcoin and 40% altcoins around Bitcoin’s $125,000–$130,000 all-time-high area, the speaker said they would sell half of the altcoin allocation into Bitcoin, then consider selling the remainder if Bitcoin reached $170,000.
  • The speaker presented this as a way to balance taking profits with retaining potential upside, not as a certain or optimal strategy.

Takeaways

  • The discussion favors having a profit-taking plan in advance rather than making an all-or-nothing decision during a fast market.
  • The percentages and price levels are the speaker’s personal example. Altcoins may not rise on the same schedule as Bitcoin, and the speaker said there is no guaranteed best course of action.

Tokenized assets and other crypto narratives

  • The speaker said the consolidation period could provide time to research areas including tokenized stocks, real-world-asset (RWA) projects, privacy-focused crypto, and other emerging narratives.
  • The speaker mentioned Zcash and decentralized-inference projects among areas of interest, but did not provide specific price targets or a detailed ranking of these themes.

Takeaways

  • The speaker views a quieter market as a chance to research narratives before they become crowded. That is a timing thesis, not evidence that every project in these categories will succeed.
  • The transcript provides no specific company stock recommendations or named public-company tickers.
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Video Description
When will Bitcoin hit a new all-time high? Across the 2015, 2019 and 2023 early bull runs it took about 230 days from bull confirmation to the next rally, and the 2-year moving average, now near $89K, roughly capped the first rally. My base case is chop between $75K and $93K until around April, $100K in Q2 next year and a new all-time high in Q3. Alts are already down 10% from $880B, which is why I call this easy mode. Q&A covers Fetch, gold and the 10-year yield, NEAR below $4.50, ISO 20022 coins, and Cardano, Polkadot and 0G. Live every weekday at 10:00 AM ET. ---------------------------------------------------- All Exchanges and Links ✅ FOMO Social Trading: https://bacon.link/fomo (Follow my real on-chain trades live. Real money on my actual account, so you see exactly what I hold, my size, and my entries) ✅ Toobit Exchange: https://bacon.link/toobit ($50 Free Bonus, No Verification Required) ✅ PropW: https://bacon.link/propw (Trade a $50K Funded Account) ✅ Bitunix Exchange: https://bacon.link/bitunix ($5,500 Bonus, no KYC) ✅ ByBit Exchange: https://bacon.link/bybit ($30,000 Bonus, KYC Needed) 🧰 Toobit Agent Trade Kit (connect an AI agent to the exchange): https://www.toobit.com/agent-tradekit 💎 Join The Coiners, our Trading Dashboard and Community: https://thecoiners.io 📢 Follow my X for Quick Alpha: https://x.com/virtualbacon 📢 Telegram, the daily market briefing and live alerts: https://t.me/virtualbacon 📢 Courses, Exchange Guides, and All Links: https://virtualbacon.com/ ----------------------------------------------------- My Other Videos 8 Years of Crypto Trading Advice in 40 Minutes 👉 https://youtu.be/p9iEJgFReB8 Crypto Investing for Beginners, Full Course 👉 https://youtu.be/niT7g4ghm3o ----------------------------------------------------- Chapters 0:00:00 Welcome and Sound Check 0:02:43 When Will Bitcoin Hit a New All-Time High? 0:04:43 Chat: The Glamsterdam Postponement and Ethereum 0:06:16 Three Early Bull Runs: 2015, 2019 and 2023 0:09:48 About 230 Days From Bull Confirmation to the Next Rally 0:11:19 The Conservative Case: Chop Until April Next Year 0:14:21 The 2-Year Moving Average That Capped Every First Rally 0:16:23 2019 Overshot to the 0.618 Fib Retracement 0:19:24 2-Year MA Near $89,000: Why 90K Is Still in Play 0:20:55 If We Get a Volatile Cycle: The $100K Scenario 0:24:58 My Base Case: Chop Between 75K and 93K 0:26:28 Why the All-Time High Push Looks Like Q2 Next Year 0:28:00 Why I Love the Boring Six-Month Chop 0:30:00 Overlaying the Altcoin Market Cap on Bitcoin's Cycles 0:34:02 Altcoins Already Down 10% From $880 Billion 0:36:04 Easy Mode: Why Cheap Alts Are the Play Now 0:42:19 Q&A: Can Fetch Get Back to $1? 0:45:24 Q&A: Will the PHP Exploit Trigger an AI Crash? 0:55:35 Q&A: Selling Altcoins Between $125K and $170K 0:57:38 Q&A: My View on Gold and the 10-Year Yield 1:02:18 Q&A: NEAR Below $4.50 and Which Alts Are Cheap 1:03:50 Q&A: ISO 20022 Coins and "Always Wrong Every Cycle" 1:09:22 From the November 2022 Bottom: All-Time High by October Next Year 1:11:53 My Timeline: $100K in Q2, All-Time High in Q3 Next Year 1:14:29 Q&A: Rhea, Aurora and Why Bittensor Comes Back 1:16:00 Q&A: Cardano, Polkadot, 0G and Other Alts 1:19:32 New Schedule: Live at 10:30 AM ET, Monday to Friday ----------------------------------------------------- 📜 Disclaimer 📜 The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial, legal, or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses a considerable risk of loss. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome. #Bitcoin #BTC #BitcoinAllTimeHigh #Crypto #Altcoins #BitcoinCycle #VirtualBacon
About VirtualBacon
VirtualBacon

VirtualBacon

By @virtualbacon

I'm Dennis, a Crypto angel investor with 100+ startups in our portfolio. On this channel I share my views on market trends and investing strategy for Crypto.