• Consider buying Bitcoin (BTC) on a pullback toward $75,000–$78,000, a possible dip zone—not a guaranteed target; expect volatility and avoid selling solely because of the midterms.
• For the S&P 500, historical midterm data supports staying invested rather than trying to time an exit and re-entry; the cited average one-year post-midterm gain is about 14%–15%, though past performance does not guarantee future returns.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• The speaker expects volatility around the midterm elections, but does not consider a 50% decline likely given Bitcoin’s current consolidation and move above the bull-market support band.
• A possible pullback to the 50-week moving average, estimated at $75,000–$78,000, is identified as a potential dip zone, possibly in mid-November. This is a scenario discussed by the speaker, not a firm price target.
• The speaker cites past midterm periods as examples of short-term weakness: Bitcoin fell from about $400 to $200 in 2014, $6,500 to $3,000 in 2018, and $20,000 to $16,000 in 2022. The speaker attributes much of the 2022 decline to the FTX collapse, rather than the election itself.
• The speaker says the size of any correction depends on Bitcoin’s market trend: early bear-market conditions could amplify a decline, while consolidation or a bull-market trend could limit it. They characterize a 10%–20% pullback as possible and a 50% drop as unlikely.
• The historical examples also show strong performance in the year after midterms, according to the speaker: Bitcoin rose from roughly $16,000 to $40,000 and higher after the 2022 midterms, from $3,000 to $11,000 after 2018, and from $200 to $450 after 2014.

Takeaways

• The speaker’s approach is to expect choppiness without assuming a major crash and not to sell everything solely to try to avoid election-related volatility.
• Investors considering Bitcoin should weigh the possible $75,000–$78,000 pullback zone against the speaker’s longer-term bullish view. The transcript does not establish that the price will reach that zone.
• The speaker’s bullish outlook rests on historical patterns and their assessment of Bitcoin’s current trend; neither guarantees future returns. The transcript specifically notes that election-related volatility can coincide with other catalysts, as FTX did in 2022.

S&P 500

• The speaker cites historical data showing that, since 1946, the S&P 500 had a positive one-year return from November to November after every U.S. midterm election. The average return cited is 14.4%.
• In a separate comparison of 19 midterm cycles since 1950, the speaker says the S&P 500 rose about 14%–15% on average from the last close on or before election day to the same date one year later.
• The two weeks before midterm elections through the period just after them were positive in 14 of 19 cycles, with an average gain of about 1%. The speaker argues that waiting until after the election to buy did not make a meaningful difference on average.

Takeaways

• The discussion presents historical midterm-season data as supportive of a positive one-year outlook for the S&P 500, not as a reliable short-term timing signal.
• The speaker’s figures suggest that selling ahead of the election and waiting to re-enter has not historically offered a clear advantage on average. Past performance does not ensure the same pattern will repeat.

Midterm-Election Market Seasonality

• The speaker’s overall view is that midterm periods can bring choppy trading, particularly for Bitcoin, but that election timing alone does not reliably predict a market crash.
• For Bitcoin, the speaker says November has tended to be a volatile month around midterms. They also emphasize that the broader market trend and other events may matter more than the election itself.

Takeaways

• Treat election-season volatility as a risk to plan for, rather than a guaranteed reason to exit investments.
• The transcript offers historical patterns and the speaker’s market outlook, but no certainty about the timing or size of future moves.