The primary investment opportunity revolves around the anticipated approval of spot ETFs for ISO 20022 compliant cryptocurrencies this year. Consider accumulating established coins like Ripple (XRP) and Cardano (ADA), as they are expected to be among the first to receive ETF approvals. Hedera (HBAR) stands out as a high-conviction trade, with analysts reportedly giving it a 90% chance of ETF approval due to its favorable regulatory history. For those with a higher risk tolerance, lower-market-cap alternatives in the same theme include Stellar (XLM), XDC Network (XDC), and Algorand (ALGO). This investment thesis is now solely dependent on the ETF catalyst, as the previous narrative around Central Bank Digital Currencies is no longer considered relevant.

Ripple (XRP)

• The speaker notes that XRP has a "huge fan base" and is one of the first coins that retail investors tend to invest in when they return to the crypto market.
• It is expected to have a spot ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) approved "most likely" this year, which could act as a major catalyst.
• XRP is compliant with the ISO 20022 standard, a global standard for financial messaging, which is presented as a key part of its investment thesis.

Takeaways

• The potential approval of an XRP ETF this year is the primary bullish catalyst mentioned. Investors may watch for news related to this as it could impact the price.
• Its popularity with retail investors suggests it could experience significant buying pressure during broader market rallies.
• Compliance with ISO 20022 positions it within the narrative of blockchain projects integrating with traditional finance systems.

Cardano (ADA)

• Similar to XRP, Cardano is described as having a "huge fan base" and being a primary destination for capital when retail investors enter the market.
• A spot Cardano ETF is also considered "most likely" to be approved this year.
• Like XRP, ADA is compliant with the ISO 20022 standard.

Takeaways

• The potential for an ADA ETF approval is a key event to monitor for this year.
• Its strong retail following could lead to high volatility and price appreciation during bull markets.
• The shared ISO 20022 narrative with XRP suggests it targets a similar use case of bridging crypto with legacy financial infrastructure.

Similar ISO 20022 Compliant Coins

The speaker identified a group of cryptocurrencies with a similar narrative to XRP and Cardano but with smaller market capitalizations. The predicted order of potential ETF approvals for this group is: XLM, HBAR, XDC, and then Algorand.

• Stellar (XLM): Presented as a direct alternative to XRP and ADA, but with a lower market cap.
• Hedera (HBAR):
  • The speaker highlights that analysts have given HBAR a 90% chance of receiving an ETF approval.
  • This high probability is attributed to its history with the SEC. The speaker claims the SEC stated in 2019 that HBAR is "not a security," which could simplify the ETF approval process.
  • An ETF for HBAR is expected to be approved soon after XRP's.
• XDC Network (XDC): Mentioned as part of this group that is likely to see an ETF approval.
• Algorand (ALGO): Also included in this investment theme and expected to be in line for a potential ETF.

Takeaways

• This group of coins (XLM, HBAR, XDC, ALGO) can be viewed as lower-market-cap plays on the same ISO 20022 and ETF approval narrative as XRP and ADA.
• Hedera (HBAR) is singled out as having a particularly strong case for a near-term ETF approval due to its favorable regulatory history, according to the speaker.
• Investors interested in this theme might consider these assets as potentially higher-growth alternatives, while acknowledging they likely carry higher risk than their larger-cap counterparts.

Investment Theme & Narrative Shift

• Primary Catalyst: The core investment thesis presented for all mentioned cryptocurrencies is the anticipated approval of spot ETFs in the United States. This is seen as the main driver of value for these assets in the near future.
• Narrative Shift (Risk Factor): The speaker explicitly states that the narrative around Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) is "no longer relevant."
  • Previously, a key bullish argument for these coins was their potential to be the underlying technology for a US-based CBDC.
  • Due to a mentioned "anti-CBDC surveillance act," this is no longer considered a viable catalyst, and the projects are reportedly no longer pursuing it. Investors should be aware that this part of the investment thesis is now considered invalid by the speaker.