The Bitcoin Capitulation and Next Rally Up
The Bitcoin Capitulation and Next Rally Up
17 hours ago•VirtualBacon•@virtualbacon
YouTube1 hr 22 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider buying Bitcoin (BTC) gradually around $76,000–$78,000; monitor $75,000, where a weekly close below it would be a more meaningful warning, and avoid leverage or tight stops.
  • XRP is a speculative buy-zone candidate at $1.20–$1.30, supported by Ripple’s U.S. trust-bank approval, but that range is not a confirmed floor.
  • Treat FET and RENDER as speculative, short-term AI-rotation ideas (roughly one to five months); wait for concrete project news or renewed market interest rather than assuming an immediate rally.
  • Avoid chasing speculative Anthropic pre-IPO exposure: the discussed $1.5 trillion–$2 trillion valuation is unconfirmed, and perpetual contracts are derivatives, not shares.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The speaker argues that selling after the recent decline could leave investors with limited downside protection but substantial missed upside if Bitcoin rebounds. The speaker’s overall view is bullish, while acknowledging that a further short-term dip is possible.
  • $75,000 is the key level discussed: a brief move below it could be a shakeout, but the speaker says a weekly close below $75,000 would be a more meaningful warning. The 50-week simple moving average was cited near $75,500.
  • A possible near-term trading range was described as roughly $76,000–$78,000 for a buying opportunity. The speaker cautions against tight automatic stop-losses and leverage that could trigger liquidation during a temporary wick.
  • Options activity suggested short-term caution: puts were in greater demand through the early-November expiry, while calls outweighed puts for later November and December expiries. The transcript cites estimated ranges of $77,600–$82,400 for the October 30 expiry and $75,200–$85,100 for the November 6 expiry.
  • The speaker views possible volatility around the FOMC meeting and midterm elections as short-lived, but says it is uncertain whether the events are already priced in. Galaxy was also cited as publishing a piece encouraging people to buy Bitcoin.

Takeaways

  • The discussion favors staying invested or buying gradually over making a large, all-or-nothing bet on a near-term direction.
  • Treat $75,000 as a level to monitor, not as a guaranteed floor. Avoid leverage or tight stops if a temporary drop could force a sale.
  • The speaker’s bullish outlook is a personal market view, not a certainty; the options data described also points to near-term volatility.

Ripple and XRP (XRP)

  • Ripple received final approval to launch a federally supervised U.S. national trust bank, which the transcript says can support its RLUSD stablecoin and provide digital-asset custody to enterprises.
  • The speaker holds a small XRP position and was positive about the announcement and the price finding support after dipping below $1.30.
  • The speaker described roughly $1.20–$1.30 as a buy zone and noted that XRP was beginning a weekly bounce. This was the speaker’s own chart-based view, not a confirmed support level.

Takeaways

  • Ripple’s banking approval may strengthen the company’s institutional infrastructure story, but the transcript does not establish how much of that is reflected in XRP’s price.
  • The speaker sees the recent pullback as a potential entry area; consider the stated range as an opinion rather than a reliable price floor.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • A potentially serious bug in Ethereum’s upcoming Glamsterdam upgrade was caught before the upgrade shipped. The bug could have routed staking deposits to builders.
  • A testing delay gave developers more time to examine the upgrade. The transcript does not provide a direct price outlook or buy recommendation for ETH.

Takeaways

  • The news is primarily about upgrade testing and risk management, rather than a clear investment catalyst.
  • Monitor further upgrade updates; the speaker’s account indicates the issue was caught and fixed before release.

Anthropic (ANT, proposed ticker)

  • Anthropic filed for an IPO, with a speculative valuation range of $1.5 trillion–$2 trillion discussed. The transcript says the amount it plans to raise had not been announced.
  • The speaker compared the potential listing with SpaceX’s IPO trajectory: an initial surge followed by a substantial retracement. The speaker was uncertain about further upside and did not view a large post-IPO rally as assured.
  • The transcript discusses trading Anthropic pre-IPO perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid and says the listed markets showed valuations around $1.85 trillion–$1.89 trillion, depending on the contract. The speaker described these as a way to gain pre-IPO exposure, while noting that different contracts use different pricing conventions.

Takeaways

  • Treat the valuation figures and IPO comparisons as speculative; the transcript gives no confirmed IPO price or fundraising amount.
  • The speaker is cautious about chasing IPO hype. Pre-IPO perpetuals are derivatives, not the same as owning publicly listed shares, and the transcript itself notes that their pricing and market structure differ.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • The speaker was bullish on Hyperliquid as a potential beneficiary of growing demand for crypto-based perpetual contracts tied to pre-IPO companies such as Anthropic.
  • The transcript presents these markets as a way to access pre-IPO price exposure and says Hyperliquid had active Anthropic markets. It does not provide a price target for HYPE.

Takeaways

  • The investment thesis discussed is increased trading activity and interest in tokenized or derivative-based pre-IPO exposure.
  • This is a platform-adoption thesis, not a guaranteed outcome for HYPE; the transcript offers no specific valuation or target.

AI Crypto Theme: Fetch.ai (FET) and Render (RENDER)

  • The speaker described Fetch.ai and Render as inexpensive AI-related coins that had not yet participated much in the rally. The speaker sees them as having more potential upside than already-popular AI tokens, but says they may need new announcements, rebrands, or other publicity before attracting attention.
  • The speaker warned that being labeled “S-tier” does not mean a coin will rise immediately. In the speaker’s view, these tokens could be a one-quarter to four- or five-month rotation, not necessarily long-term holdings.
  • More broadly, the speaker called AI the strongest crypto narrative for the cycle, citing possible interest in decentralized inference and robotics as well as other AI themes.

Takeaways

  • The opportunity described is a speculative rotation into less-hyped AI tokens, rather than a claim that FET or RENDER is about to rally.
  • Watch for concrete project developments and rising market attention; the speaker specifically said the timing for these tokens may not yet be right.

Bittensor (TAO)

  • The speaker identified BitTensor as a possible upcoming AI narrative, while criticizing a prominent call to sell Bitcoin and rotate into AI. The speaker argued that an altcoin such as TAO is unlikely to rise if Bitcoin falls.
  • The transcript does not give a specific TAO price target or a direct personal recommendation to buy it.

Takeaways

  • The discussion supports considering TAO as part of the AI narrative, but not as a substitute for assessing Bitcoin’s market direction.
  • The speaker’s central caution is that altcoin performance remains dependent on broader crypto-market conditions.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR)

  • NEAR was described as one of the more popular AI-related tokens at the time, and the speaker noted that it had already risen roughly four to five times from its low.
  • The speaker contrasted NEAR’s popularity with the lower prices of FET and Render, arguing that less-popular tokens may have more upside from current levels, though they may take longer to attract attention.

Takeaways

  • The transcript presents NEAR as a popular, already-rallied AI-related token, rather than the cheapest option in the group.
  • Compare potential upside with how much of a rally has already occurred; popularity alone does not guarantee further gains.

Venice (VVV)

  • The speaker praised Venice’s model-access and tokenomics approach, describing token inflation as helping subsidize discounted access to AI models.
  • Despite liking the project’s model, the speaker said VVV had risen roughly 20 times and therefore saw less remaining upside than lower-priced AI tokens such as FET.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view separates perceived project quality from investment entry price: a compelling model does not necessarily make a token attractive after a large rally.
  • The transcript does not provide a price target or a recommendation to sell VVV.

Pearl / Perl-related AI Coins

  • The speaker identified Pearl-related coins as part of a possible upcoming AI narrative, while saying Pearl itself was already too popular.
  • No specific token ticker, price target, or recommendation was provided.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to narrative momentum, not a specific investment setup. Verify the project and token identity before acting on this mention.

Zero-G Labs

  • The speaker called Zero-G a “pretty okay” AI-related project focused on decentralized inference, noting that it had capital and that its token distribution and circulation had improved.
  • The speaker said they held a small position and wanted to increase it, while explicitly stopping short of calling it the best AI coin.

Takeaways

  • The speaker sees potential for Zero-G to attract attention in the decentralized-inference narrative, but the view is tentative.
  • The transcript mentions weak past token performance and does not provide a target or a specific catalyst date.

QTC and Zcash (ZEC)

  • The speaker said they held a six-figure position in QTC, bought at an average price of about $100, and remained bullish. The speaker connected QTC with NEAR, Zcash, quantum-related themes, and proof-of-work mining.
  • The speaker hoped QTC would outperform NEAR and Zcash but acknowledged that it might not.
  • Zcash was discussed as part of this narrative, but the transcript gives no separate price outlook or recommendation for ZEC.

Takeaways

  • The QTC view is a high-conviction personal position, not an independently established forecast. The speaker’s own entry price and position size should not be treated as a target or a signal.
  • The comparison with NEAR and Zcash is speculative; the speaker explicitly acknowledged uncertainty about relative performance.

Kaspa (KAS)

  • The speaker said Kaspa had been relatively quiet, with no major news for roughly two and a half years and weak price action in the prior cycle.
  • Despite that history, the speaker viewed the current market timing as favorable and said buying Kaspa now could make sense for those who already like the project.

Takeaways

  • The thesis in the transcript is based more on broad market timing than on new project developments.
  • Lack of recent news and prior underperformance are reasons to be cautious about assuming Kaspa will outperform other proof-of-work coins.

Other Altcoins Mentioned

  • The speaker gave broadly positive, non-specific comments about The Graph (GRT), Solana (SOL), BNB, Hedera (HBAR), Worldcoin (WLD), Pendle (PENDLE), Avalanche (AVAX), Algorand (ALGO), and Pepe (PEPE), among other altcoins.
  • The speaker’s general view was that non-scam altcoins could rise if Bitcoin recovers, while altcoins could fall further if Bitcoin drops toward $75,000. The speaker advised against using leverage when buying altcoins.
  • The speaker also mentioned tokenized stocks, privacy, and quantum themes as possible areas of interest, but did not give specific recommendations for these themes.

Takeaways

  • The positive comments were broad market sentiment, not individual analysis of each token. The transcript does not distinguish which of these coins may outperform.
  • Any altcoin purchase remains exposed to Bitcoin’s direction; the speaker specifically warned that a Bitcoin dip could produce larger declines in altcoins.
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Video Description
People are capitulating on Bitcoin again, and I think it's the worst time to do it. News first: Ethereum catching a Glamsterdam bug in time, Ripple's final go-ahead for its US national trust bank, and Anthropic filing for an IPO at a 1.5 to 2 trillion valuation, plus trading it pre-IPO with perps on Hyperliquid. Then why Fetch and Render haven't pumped yet, the one level that matters (75K on a weekly close), why Jason telling people to sell Bitcoin for BitTensor looks like his June 2023 call, and what the Bitcoin options market says: hedges into the November 6th expiry only go down to 75.2K. Vote in Binance's Blockchain 100: https://www.binance.com/en/square/blockchain-100-2026?username=122 Live every weekday at 10:30 AM ET. ---------------------------------------------------- All Exchanges and Links ✅ FOMO Social Trading: https://bacon.link/fomo (Follow my real on-chain trades live. Real money on my actual account, so you see exactly what I hold, my size, and my entries) ✅ Toobit Exchange: https://bacon.link/toobit ($50 Free Bonus, No Verification Required) ✅ PropW: https://bacon.link/propw (Trade a $50K Funded Account) ✅ Bitunix Exchange: https://bacon.link/bitunix ($5,500 Bonus, no KYC) ✅ ByBit Exchange: https://bacon.link/bybit ($30,000 Bonus, KYC Needed) 🧰 Toobit Agent Trade Kit (connect an AI agent to the exchange): https://www.toobit.com/agent-tradekit 💎 Join The Coiners, our Trading Dashboard and Community: https://thecoiners.io 📢 Follow my X for Quick Alpha: https://x.com/virtualbacon 📢 Telegram, the daily market briefing and live alerts: https://t.me/virtualbacon 📢 Courses, Exchange Guides, and All Links: https://virtualbacon.com/ ----------------------------------------------------- My Other Videos 8 Years of Crypto Trading Advice in 40 Minutes 👉 https://youtu.be/p9iEJgFReB8 Crypto Investing for Beginners, Full Course 👉 https://youtu.be/niT7g4ghm3o ----------------------------------------------------- Chapters 0:00:00 Welcome to Today's Live Stream 0:00:40 Why Capitulating Now Is the Worst Time 0:04:44 Ethereum Fixes a Critical Glamsterdam Upgrade Bug 0:05:45 Ripple Gets the Final Go-Ahead for Its US National Trust Bank 0:07:48 Anthropic Files for IPO at a 1.5 to 2 Trillion Valuation 0:10:21 Trading Anthropic Pre-IPO Perps on Hyperliquid 0:21:45 Why My S-Tier Coins Fetch and Render Haven't Pumped Yet 0:27:16 We're Speculators, So Does the Tech Actually Matter? 0:30:49 The Bears Are Out in Full Force 0:32:07 The Exact Level Is 75K on a Weekly Close 0:39:23 The Bear Trap Below 75K and How to Avoid It 0:41:54 Jason Says Sell Bitcoin and Buy BitTensor 0:46:28 I'm a Buyer Into the Capitulation at 76K to 78K 0:46:58 What the Bitcoin Options Market Says 0:51:11 Crash Insurance: Heavier Puts Into the November 6th Expiry 0:55:48 Midterms Week: Options Traders Hedge Only Down to 75K 1:00:39 Alts: Start Buying, Just Don't Use Leverage 1:01:22 Q&A: 70K in November, 65K in December? 1:05:58 My QTC Position, Bought With My Own Money 1:11:14 Zero G Labs: Why I Hold a Small Position 1:14:49 No Bad Coins Right Now 1:17:51 Which Coins Will Pump the Most This Cycle? 1:21:23 Thanks for Joining, Live Monday to Friday ----------------------------------------------------- 📜 Disclaimer 📜 The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial, legal, or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses a considerable risk of loss. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome. #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Bittensor #Anthropic #XRP #VirtualBacon
About VirtualBacon
VirtualBacon

VirtualBacon

By @virtualbacon

I'm Dennis, a Crypto angel investor with 100+ startups in our portfolio. On this channel I share my views on market trends and investing strategy for Crypto.