Is Hyperliquid a Good Business? | Arthur Hayes
Is Hyperliquid a Good Business? | Arthur Hayes
13 hours agoVirtualBacon@virtualbacon
YouTube11 min 36 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Accumulate Ethereum (ETH) for dependable mega-cap exposure to Real World Assets (RWAs) and institutional adoption while it trades well below its $5,000 all-time high. Buy Uniswap (UNI) around $7 to capitalize on surging decentralized trading volume and fee buybacks, with a projected price target past $20. Take an aggressive turnaround position in Ethena (ENA) for a potential 5X upside as rising crypto market activity revitalizes demand for its high-yield USDe stablecoin. Hold Hyperliquid (HYPE) near $85 as a steady, cash-flowing asset that distributes 97% of trading fees to holders, though upside multiples will be limited by its already large valuation. Exercise caution with Layer 2 infrastructure tokens like Arbitrum (ARB) until network revenues directly translate into value for token holders.

Detailed Analysis

Ethereum (ETH)

  • Ethereum is viewed as the fundamental security layer for tokenized Real World Assets (RWAs) and institutional Layer 2 chains, such as Robinhood's infrastructure.
  • The network provides over $300 billion in decentralized economic security, making it more practical for large institutions to build on Ethereum rather than risking their own balance sheets to secure proprietary chains.
  • Despite strong fundamentals, the asset remains well below its 2021 all-time high of $5,000, positioning it as an underappreciated mega-cap poised for a sentiment shift as on-chain activity rises.

Takeaways

  • Favorable macro setup for long-term investors seeking exposure to institutional blockchain adoption and asset tokenization.

Ethena (ENA)

  • Ethena operates a synthetic dollar protocol (USDe) that captures basis yields from crypto derivatives markets and passes those returns to stablecoin holders.
  • The governance token ENA has experienced a steep decline of roughly 99% from its highs due to venture capital unlocks and pre-sale selling pressure.
  • As market volatility and speculation return, higher yields are expected to drive growth in the circulating supply of USDe, strengthening the network's valuation.
  • A future governance vote regarding fee distribution could help solve token value-accrual issues.
  • Price target / Upside: An internal upside target of 5X was highlighted based on current beaten-down valuation levels.

Takeaways

  • High-upside turnaround opportunity for investors looking for leveraged exposure to increasing crypto market activity and yield generation.

Uniswap (UNI)

  • Uniswap functions as a primary execution layer for decentralized on-chain trading and meme coin volume.
  • The protocol has moved toward direct value accrual for token holders through a fee buyback-and-burn mechanism.
  • Price target / Upside: The token is positioned to potentially move from its current price level around $7 to break past $20 if on-chain trading momentum continues.

Takeaways

  • Solid fundamental play in decentralized finance (DeFi) backed by real revenue generation and product-market fit.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • Hyperliquid is regarded as the leading decentralized exchange (DEX), having grown in price from $25 to approximately $85 with a fully diluted valuation between $85 billion and $90 billion.
  • The project stands out fundamentally by returning roughly 97% of all generated trading fees directly back to token holders.
  • Risk factors: Because of its already large market size, achieving significant multiples (such as a 5X return) will be much harder compared to lower-cap assets. Additionally, potential US regulatory compliance efforts could restrict popular platform features like high-leverage trading and slow future growth.

Takeaways

  • A top-tier, cash-flowing business suitable for holding long-term infrastructure, but with more limited short-term upside due to its already elevated valuation.

Layer 2 Infrastructure / Arbitrum (ARB)

  • Many Layer 2 platforms are benefiting from increased transaction volume and enterprise adoption, but there is significant skepticism regarding token value capture.
  • Risk factors: There is an unclear connection between the sequencer fees generated by Layer 2 networks and actual cash flow delivered to ARB token holders, as revenues may instead accrue to private development firms.

Takeaways

  • Exercise caution when investing in Layer 2 infrastructure tokens until there is clear governance or tokenomic alignment that passes network revenue to token holders.
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Video Description
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, runs four altcoins through one test: does the network send its fees to the people holding the token. Ethereum is his favourite narrative precisely because it is hated. It has not passed its 2021 high above $5,000, and Robinhood building its chain on Ethereum is the kind of activity that changes perception. Ethena captures basis yield and hands it to stablecoin holders, and the governance token sits 99 percent below its all-time high after the VC overhang cleared. Uniswap is the execution layer with a buyback and burn on fees. Layer 2 tokens get the opposite verdict: the sequencer revenue never reaches the holder. Hyperliquid is the one he rates highest as a business and lowest as a trade. Best run decentralised exchange in crypto, returning 97 percent of fee income to holders, and at $85 to $90 billion fully diluted it is simply too large for the multiple he is hunting. ---------------------------------------------------- All Exchanges and Links ✅ FOMO Social Trading: https://bacon.link/fomo (Follow my real on-chain trades live. Real money on my actual account, so you see exactly what I hold, my size, and my entries) ✅ Toobit Exchange: https://bacon.link/toobit ($50 Free Bonus, No Verification Required) ✅ PropW: https://bacon.link/propw (Trade a $50K Funded Account) ✅ Bitunix Exchange: https://bacon.link/bitunix ($5,500 Bonus, no KYC) ✅ ByBit Exchange: https://bacon.link/bybit ($30,000 Bonus, KYC Needed) 🧰 Toobit Agent Trade Kit (connect an AI agent to the exchange): https://www.toobit.com/agent-tradekit 💎 Join The Coiners, our Trading Dashboard and Community: https://thecoiners.io 📢 Follow my X for Quick Alpha: https://x.com/virtualbacon 📢 Courses, Exchange Guides, and All Links: https://virtualbacon.com/ ----------------------------------------------------- My Other Videos 8 Years of Crypto Trading Advice in 40 Minutes 👉 https://youtu.be/p9iEJgFReB8 Crypto Investing for Beginners, Full Course 👉 https://youtu.be/niT7g4ghm3o ----------------------------------------------------- Chapters 0:00 Is it time for altcoins yet 0:58 Ethereum is the most hated mega cap 1:52 Ethena and Uniswap pay their holders 5:31 Why layer 2 tokens do not catch a bid 8:55 Hyperliquid is too big for a 5x ----------------------------------------------------- 📜 Disclaimer 📜 The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial, legal, or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses a considerable risk of loss. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome. #Bitcoin #Crypto #VirtualBacon #BTC #Yields #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #30YearYield #10YearYield #Inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #FOMC #Macro #Gold
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VirtualBacon

VirtualBacon

By @virtualbacon

I'm Dennis, a Crypto angel investor with 100+ startups in our portfolio. On this channel I share my views on market trends and investing strategy for Crypto.