Inflation Falls, Bitcoin Rips. Is the Fed Done Hiking?
Inflation Falls, Bitcoin Rips. Is the Fed Done Hiking?
5 hours ago•VirtualBacon•@virtualbacon
YouTube1 hr 36 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Bitcoin (BTC): Maintain a measured core position while the bullish outlook holds; the speaker sees about $90,000 within three months as a potential pause point and $150,000–$170,000 over one to two years as a longer-term target.
  • If BTC approaches $90,000, consider taking some altcoin profits and rotating them into Bitcoin; avoid concentrating in altcoins, which may fall more sharply in a correction.
  • Treat Qantas (QTC) and other proof-of-verifiable-work projects as highly speculative: exchange-token uncertainty, volatility, and limited liquidity make them unsuitable as core holdings.
  • Avoid chasing Pearl at elevated prices; the speaker would wait for a drawdown given its limited exchange liquidity.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The speaker remains bullish and views Bitcoin as being in the early stage of a bull run.
  • The near-term target is about $90,000 over the next three months. The speaker sees this as a realistic level where Bitcoin could pause and where they would consider taking profits on altcoins and rotating more into Bitcoin.
  • The speaker’s year-end levels are:
    • $87,500 as a conservative minimum for a positive yearly close.
    • About $93,300 as a stronger close that would make the yearly chart look more bullish.
    • $78,000 as a level they do not expect Bitcoin to fall below in the coming quarter, based on the 50-week moving average.
  • A move above roughly $94,800 would be stronger than the speaker expects and could open the way toward $100,000+.
  • For the longer term, the speaker’s stated target is roughly $150,000–$170,000 over about one to two years. They later clarified they do not expect $250,000 in this cycle.
  • The speaker expects periods of volatility and possible consolidation, rather than a straight-line rise.

Takeaways

  • The discussion’s main strategy is to remain exposed to Bitcoin while the speaker’s bullish thesis holds, and to consider rotating some altcoin profits into Bitcoin near $90,000.
  • The speaker favors Bitcoin over cash as a core position during a bull market, while acknowledging that this is their own approach rather than a guarantee of lower losses.
  • The speaker specifically warns that altcoins can fall much more than Bitcoin during a correction; they suggest avoiding an overly concentrated altcoin portfolio.

Ethereum (ETH), BNB, Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA) and Other Large-Cap Altcoins

  • The speaker expects liquid, widely held altcoins to generally follow Bitcoin if it rises toward $90,000.
  • Other large-cap names mentioned as examples include Hyperliquid (HYPE), Zcash (ZEC), NEAR, Bittensor (TAO) and Quant (QNT).
  • The speaker describes the broader altcoin market as still relatively early in the cycle, while cautioning that a period of choppiness could follow a Bitcoin rally.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view is that large-cap altcoins may benefit from a Bitcoin advance, but the discussion does not establish a specific price target for these assets.
  • The suggested approach is to avoid assuming that recent altcoin strength means the market has already reached its most speculative phase, while also planning for possible pullbacks.

XRP, Hedera (HBAR), Stellar (XLM), IOTA and Algorand (ALGO)

  • The speaker says they are still holding positions in these altcoins and does not plan to sell them based on small day-to-day price changes.
  • Their stated plan is to consider selling altcoin positions if Bitcoin reaches around $90,000, then rotate more of the portfolio into Bitcoin.
  • The speaker cites a small move in HBAR as an example of price action they do not consider a reason to panic.

Takeaways

  • The discussion supports a patient approach to these positions only while accepting the possibility of volatility; it does not give individual price targets for these coins.
  • If following the speaker’s plan, the key trigger discussed is Bitcoin approaching $90,000, rather than a specific level for any one of these altcoins.

Robinhood Ecosystem Tokens: ZZZ, Bucket, Statics, Standard and Ubik

  • The speaker says they hold several small-cap tokens associated with the Robinhood ecosystem, including ZZZ, Bucket, Statics, Standard and Ubik.
  • They describe the Robinhood ecosystem as the broader investment thesis behind these positions, rather than expressing high confidence in any single token.
  • The speaker says some positions were down or flat at the time of the broadcast and notes that the tokens’ prospects depend on the Robinhood ecosystem gaining traction.

Takeaways

  • These are presented as speculative, ecosystem-dependent positions—not as established investments.
  • The speaker’s own qualification is important: if the Robinhood ecosystem narrative does not perform, they expect these tokens may not perform well either.

Ducat

  • The speaker says they acquired exposure by minting Ducat NFTs and farming the associated token, rather than buying after a price rise.
  • They describe the token as already having risen after launch, but warn that it has high inflation, limited liquidity and likely volatility.
  • They advise against “aping” into the token and suggest researching it, waiting for a correction, or using the project’s NFT or bond mechanisms instead.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s comments frame Ducat as a high-risk, early-stage opportunity, not a straightforward buy.
  • The explicitly mentioned risks are high token inflation, volatility and limited liquidity.

NEAR (NEAR), Zcash (ZEC), RIA and Aurora

  • The speaker identifies NEAR and Zcash as popular assets and argues that strength in those coins could benefit their ecosystems.
  • They describe RIA and Aurora as ecosystem plays and say they are still holding both.
  • For NEAR-related tokens, the speaker prefers older projects with a longer operating history over newly launched projects they view as potentially opportunistic.
  • They name Black Dragon, Shih Tzu and Purge as older NEAR ecosystem meme tokens, but caution that these have already moved in price and require careful selection.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s thesis is that ecosystem tokens may benefit if their underlying networks attract interest, but the transcript does not provide price targets for RIA or Aurora.
  • The speaker favors established projects over new launches in this ecosystem. They also indicate that evaluating NEAR meme tokens requires sophistication, so this is not presented as a low-risk strategy.

Qantas (QTC)

  • The speaker describes Qantas as a proof-of-verifiable-work mining opportunity linked to the NEAR and Zcash communities.
  • They say they are mining it and consider the broader proof-of-verifiable-work theme promising.
  • The speaker discusses buying QTC through SafeTrade but notes uncertainty about whether SafeTrade’s tokens will correspond to the project’s mainnet tokens. They cite a Qantas team member warning that SafeTrade pricing is highly volatile and that price discovery would occur on NEAR Intense.
  • The speaker’s practical suggestion is to consider both mining and a limited SafeTrade purchase if pursuing the opportunity, rather than relying entirely on either route.

Takeaways

  • QTC is described as an early-stage, speculative mining opportunity, with uncertainty around exchange-listed tokens and future conversion.
  • The transcript specifically flags high volatility and uncertainty about the relationship between SafeTrade tokens and mainnet tokens. The speaker says the project’s main trading venue was expected to launch soon.

Pearl

  • Pearl is described as a popular proof-of-work mining project, but the speaker says they are not currently a fan of buying at its elevated price and would consider it after a drawdown.
  • They point to limited exchange liquidity, particularly reliance on the small SafeTrade exchange, as a reason the rally may not be sustainable.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s stated approach is to wait for a possible correction rather than chase the rally.
  • The explicitly mentioned risks are low liquidity and the possibility that the current rally may not be sustainable.

Nockchain (Nock)

  • The speaker says they like Nockchain as a possible proof-of-work mining and AI/privacy-related narrative, and would prefer to buy it at a lower price.
  • They note that it has already fallen substantially but have not yet built a position.

Takeaways

  • Nockchain is a watchlist idea in the discussion, not a stated current holding or immediate buy recommendation.
  • The speaker emphasizes looking for projects with relevant mining, AI or privacy themes that have not already surged too far.

Flop

  • Flop is described as a project founded by Arthur Hayes that the speaker wants to mine.
  • At the time of the discussion, it was still on testnet, and the speaker said mining had not yet started.

Takeaways

  • This is an early-stage opportunity to monitor, not an available mining recommendation at the time of the broadcast.
  • The discussion provides no price target or launch timeline.

Bittensor (TAO), Venice and Proof-of-Verifiable-Work Projects

  • The speaker compares the emerging proof-of-verifiable-work theme to earlier interest in Bittensor (TAO) and Venice, describing the new projects as adding mining networks to a related narrative.
  • They suggest the theme could become a future market narrative, while naming Qantas, Pearl, Nockchain and Flop as examples.

Takeaways

  • The potential opportunity is the broader theme, not a claim that any one project is certain to succeed.
  • The examples discussed are early-stage and, in some cases, have limited liquidity or are not yet fully launched.

World Liberty Financial (WLFI)

  • The speaker distinguishes between an initial coin offering (ICO) position, which they say had returned investors’ capital and more, and a separate leveraged trade that they say they closed at about a 40% loss.
  • They say they had exited the trade roughly ten months earlier and argue that WLFI’s price decline was not unique compared with other altcoins during a downturn.
  • The speaker acknowledges that it was a poor trade and says the project could have received more support.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s comments are a retrospective explanation of a past trade, not a current recommendation to buy WLFI.
  • The discussion highlights the difference between an ICO allocation and a later leveraged trade; the reported outcome differs between those two exposures.

Aster

  • The speaker says they lost money on an Aster trade and cut the position after it fell.
  • They use it as an example of an unsuccessful altcoin trade, rather than as an investment thesis.

Takeaways

  • No current recommendation or price target is given for Aster.
  • The example reinforces the speaker’s point that individual crypto trades can produce losses.

Macro: Inflation, Federal Reserve Policy, Yields, Gold and the S&P 500

  • The speaker says the reported core PCE inflation figure was revised from 3.3% to 3.0% because of changes to the calculation, rather than because underlying prices had suddenly fallen.
  • They say the revision covered prior years and involved items including legal services, software and computer accessories, and portfolio-management services.
  • The speaker views the lower reported figure as bullish for markets because it may reduce the perceived likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate hike. They cite market pricing shifting toward a greater chance of the Fed holding rates at its next meeting.
  • In the market moves discussed, Bitcoin rose, the S&P 500 was slightly higher and gold was down. The speaker also notes that the two-year Treasury yield fell while longer-term yields remained elevated.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s interpretation is that a lower reported inflation measure may support risk assets by reducing near-term rate-hike expectations, even if it does not reflect a comparable improvement in everyday prices.
  • The transcript does not frame this as proof that inflation is resolved; the speaker explicitly says underlying inflation had not necessarily improved.

Altcoin Risk Management

  • The speaker says they expect altcoins to be more vulnerable than Bitcoin during a correction and warns against giving back gains by holding too much in riskier assets.
  • Their stated practice is to rotate some altcoin profits into Bitcoin rather than moving entirely to cash while they believe the market remains in a bull phase.
  • They acknowledge that even this approach cannot avoid a sizable drawdown and mention a possible 30%–40% decline as something investors may need to tolerate.

Takeaways

  • A discussion-based risk-management approach is to keep position sizes appropriate for the possibility of sharp losses and to consider consolidating some altcoin gains into Bitcoin.
  • The speaker does not suggest that losses can be avoided entirely; they emphasize being prepared for drawdowns rather than trying to sell at the exact top.

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Video Description
Inflation came in lower this morning, and Bitcoin bounced on the print. But core PCE only fell from 3.3% to 3.0% because the BEA changed how it measures prices and revised last month down too, so inflation didn't actually cool. I break down why that's still good news: the Fed now beats its own projection on paper, the odds of no October hike jumped to 65% on CME FedWatch, and the 2-year yield is slowing down while long yields hold up. Then my Bitcoin target for the next three months: 90K, the middle of a range between the 50-week SMA at 78K and resistance near 95K, plus the 87.5K and 93.3K yearly levels and what I do with my altcoins if we get to 90K fast in October. Plus where altcoins really are in the cycle, the Robinhood chain and proof-of-work mining plays I'm watching, and your questions on my World Liberty trade and avoiding the round-trip trap. Live every weekday at 10:00 AM ET. ---------------------------------------------------- All Exchanges and Links ✅ FOMO Social Trading: https://bacon.link/fomo (Follow my real on-chain trades live. Real money on my actual account, so you see exactly what I hold, my size, and my entries) ✅ Toobit Exchange: https://bacon.link/toobit ($50 Free Bonus, No Verification Required) ✅ PropW: https://bacon.link/propw (Trade a $50K Funded Account) ✅ Bitunix Exchange: https://bacon.link/bitunix ($5,500 Bonus, no KYC) ✅ ByBit Exchange: https://bacon.link/bybit ($30,000 Bonus, KYC Needed) 🧰 Toobit Agent Trade Kit (connect an AI agent to the exchange): https://www.toobit.com/agent-tradekit 💎 Join The Coiners, our Trading Dashboard and Community: https://thecoiners.io 📢 Follow my X for Quick Alpha: https://x.com/virtualbacon 📢 Telegram, the daily market briefing and live alerts: https://t.me/virtualbacon 📢 Courses, Exchange Guides, and All Links: https://virtualbacon.com/ ----------------------------------------------------- My Other Videos 8 Years of Crypto Trading Advice in 40 Minutes 👉 https://youtu.be/p9iEJgFReB8 Crypto Investing for Beginners, Full Course 👉 https://youtu.be/niT7g4ghm3o ----------------------------------------------------- Chapters 0:00:00 Welcome and Today's Game Plan 0:09:45 Core PCE Revised Down From 3.3% to 3.0% 0:16:53 How the BEA Rewrote Inflation Back to 2021 0:18:57 The Fed Now Beats Its 3.4% Projection on Paper 0:21:28 October Hike Odds Drop From 50% to 34% 0:24:00 Bitcoin Bounces While Gold Slips 0:25:02 Why the Two Year Yield Falls as Long Yields Rise 0:29:04 Why I'm Not Selling With Bitcoin at 83.9K 0:31:44 Bitcoin's Big Quarter and My 90K Target 0:32:46 90K Is the Midpoint of Last Winter's Range 0:36:49 A Bullish Quarter Is Usually Followed by Chop 0:40:22 Next Quarter Range Between 78K and 95K 0:41:24 Bitcoin Has Never Had Two Red Years in a Row 0:42:56 The 87.5K and 93.3K Levels That Decide the Year 0:44:58 My Base Case Is 90K by Year End 0:47:42 Taking Profit If We Hit 90K in October 0:49:44 What Happens If Bitcoin Breaks 94.8K 0:51:54 Altcoins Up 63% While Bitcoin Is Up 50% 0:58:01 What I'm Holding Until Bitcoin Hits 90K 1:01:33 My Robinhood Chain Small Cap Bets 1:05:35 Near and Zcash Ecosystem Plays I Like 1:10:16 Proof of Verifiable Work Could Be the Next Narrative 1:14:50 What Really Happened With My World Liberty Trade 1:22:25 Buy on SafeTrade or Mine It Yourself 1:29:35 How to Avoid Round Tripping This Bull Run 1:31:06 My 125K to 220K Target for This Cycle 1:32:40 Why I Rotate Into Bitcoin Instead of Cash 1:35:11 Closing Thoughts and Next Live Stream ----------------------------------------------------- 📜 Disclaimer 📜 The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial, legal, or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses a considerable risk of loss. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome. #Bitcoin #BTC #BitcoinPrice #BitcoinNews #BitcoinAnalysis #Crypto #CryptoNews #Inflation #Fed #PCE #BuyTheDip #Robinhood #VirtualBacon
About VirtualBacon
VirtualBacon

VirtualBacon

By @virtualbacon

I'm Dennis, a Crypto angel investor with 100+ startups in our portfolio. On this channel I share my views on market trends and investing strategy for Crypto.