Fed Holds Rates. How Many More Rate Hikes Are Coming?
Fed Holds Rates. How Many More Rate Hikes Are Coming?
18 hours ago•VirtualBacon•@virtualbacon
YouTube1 hr 43 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider accumulating Bitcoin (BTC) around $76,000–$78,000, potentially through dollar-cost averaging; the bullish view weakens if it closes below $75,000 for the week, and $90,000–$94,000 is the cited potential rally zone.
  • Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL) may offer an entry after its post-earnings drop if the AI investment cycle continues, but weigh its negative cash flow and execution risks against the possibility of a broader tech correction.
  • Monitor Brent crude near $115–$120: a breakout could increase rate-hike concerns and pressure risk assets, while a drop below $95 could ease macro headwinds.
Detailed Analysis

Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL)

  • Alphabet shares fell sharply after earnings, despite Google Cloud revenue doubling to $31 billion; the transcript also notes that cash flow remained deeply negative.
  • The speaker viewed Google as a difficult business to assess because it competes both in AI infrastructure and in consumer-facing AI products. In the speaker’s view, Google’s models trail the top competitors in some uses, despite broad distribution through Search, Android, and other products.
  • The speaker said the stock was at its lowest price since March and that buying could be reasonable if the AI investment cycle continues. However, the speaker also described AI as late-cycle and warned of a possible major Nasdaq correction after upcoming AI-company IPOs.

Takeaways

  • A potential entry case rests on Google’s broad role in AI, but the transcript also highlights execution and cash-flow concerns.
  • Consider the speaker’s warning about a possible wider tech-market correction when assessing the risk of buying after the post-earnings drop.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The speaker remained bullish, describing $76,000–$78,000 as a buying zone and $75,000 as a key weekly-close level. A close below that level would challenge the speaker’s outlook.
  • The speaker expected a possible rally toward $90,000–$94,000, while viewing a move above $100,000 in the near term as less likely. These were the speaker’s expectations, not guarantees.
  • The speaker said the known December rate hike was largely priced in and might not by itself cause a major selloff. Earlier or more aggressive hikes could be a headwind, particularly if oil prices rise.
  • The speaker suggested that a month of dollar-cost averaging could be reasonable, while cautioning that delaying too long could mean buying at higher prices if Bitcoin rallies.
  • The speaker said they did not plan to sell their Bitcoin and expected a higher price later in the bull cycle.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s approach was to accumulate near the cited support zone and avoid relying on precise short-term predictions.
  • Treat $75,000 on a weekly close as a level the speaker considered important to the bullish thesis, not as a guaranteed stop or floor.
  • The transcript specifically warns against getting liquidated during volatile price swings.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • The speaker included Ethereum alongside Bitcoin as a relatively straightforward long-term holding for investors able to tolerate volatility.
  • The speaker gave no Ethereum-specific price target. They described checking holdings after one or two years and considering selling if Bitcoin were above $150,000; this was a broad portfolio scenario, not a target for Ethereum itself.

Takeaways

  • The transcript’s long-term holding view depends on being able to tolerate interim volatility and follow a plan rather than reacting to daily price moves.
  • No Ethereum-specific entry, exit, or price target was provided.

Cardano (ADA)

  • The speaker described Cardano as a legitimate project that could rise during the cycle, but said it was no longer especially trendy and might underperform many other assets.
  • No price prediction or target was provided. The speaker said holding or trading it could make sense for someone who likes the project.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was cautiously positive on potential gains but less positive on relative performance.
  • The transcript offers no specific catalyst, valuation case, or price target for Cardano.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • The speaker noted strong HYPE price action and pointed to news involving Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, and TradeXYZ, which the speaker described as an issuer of tokenized equities on Hyperliquid.
  • The speaker also cited investor Stan Druckenmiller’s support for bringing 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States.
  • The speaker congratulated HYPE holders but said they personally had not bought the token, as its price had not fallen enough to meet their preferred entry level.

Takeaways

  • The cited news may be relevant to Hyperliquid’s adoption prospects, but the speaker did not provide a price target or direct buy recommendation.
  • The speaker’s missed entry illustrates the trade-off between waiting for a preferred price and missing a rally.

Fetch.ai (FET)

  • The speaker clarified that Fetch.ai’s reported activity with Google and Meta was a hackathon, not evidence that those companies were using or integrating Fetch.ai.
  • The speaker characterized the announcement as marketing rather than a substantive partnership, while still saying that investors interested in FET could choose to buy it.

Takeaways

  • Verify what a reported partnership actually involves before treating it as a business catalyst; in this case, the speaker said it was a hackathon, not an integration.
  • The speaker gave no FET-specific price target or assessment of its prospects beyond the broader bullish crypto-cycle view.

Internet Computer (ICP)

  • The speaker had no strong current opinion on ICP and said they had not followed its developments closely in recent years.
  • They said they might research it further if there were useful details on recent releases, its main narratives, or tokenomics.

Takeaways

  • The transcript does not provide a current investment thesis or actionable price view for ICP.
  • Investors should not interpret the speaker’s general optimism about the crypto market as a specific endorsement of ICP.

Akash Network (AKT) and Solana (SOL)

  • The speaker viewed Akash’s move toward Solana positively, arguing that Akash could benefit from Solana’s infrastructure, liquidity, and broader adoption.
  • The speaker contrasted this with Akash’s prior Cosmos-based setup, which they described as operating in a weak ecosystem.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s positive view rests on the potential benefits of using a more widely adopted and liquid blockchain ecosystem.
  • The transcript did not provide a price target or discuss specific risks to the migration.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR)

  • Comparing NEAR with Render, the speaker said NEAR was more trendy and might be more responsive to market activity in the near term.
  • The speaker did not provide a price target.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s preference for NEAR was based on near-term attention and momentum, not a detailed valuation comparison.
  • That view does not establish that NEAR is a better long-term investment.

Render (RNDR)

  • In the comparison with NEAR, the speaker described Render as a longer-term play that was still near lower price levels, but cautioned that it might not move for a while.

Takeaways

  • The speaker presented Render as potentially more suitable for a longer holding horizon than a short-term trade.
  • No price target, catalyst, or specific risk assessment was provided.

Crude Oil (Brent)

  • The speaker identified oil as a key driver of inflation and Federal Reserve policy, particularly because higher energy prices feed into headline PCE inflation.
  • Brent crude near $115 was described as resistance; a move toward $120 could signal a breakout and increase the risk of earlier rate hikes.
  • A decline below $95, potentially associated with easing geopolitical tensions, was described as a tailwind for markets.

Takeaways

  • The transcript frames oil primarily as a macroeconomic signal rather than a direct investment recommendation.
  • Monitor the cited levels for the potential effects on inflation expectations, interest rates, and risk assets; the speaker described both upside and downside scenarios.

Gold

  • The speaker said gold was under pressure near $4,000 support.
  • In the speaker’s scenario, a breakout in oil could weigh on gold; a decline in gold could also create additional headwinds for Bitcoin through the “digital gold” narrative.

Takeaways

  • The transcript’s view on gold depends heavily on the direction of oil prices and related inflation expectations.
  • No direct gold trade or price target was recommended.

U.S. Dollar and Treasury Yields

  • The speaker said higher oil prices could contribute to higher inflation expectations and more rate hikes, potentially supporting the dollar and pressuring Bitcoin and other risk assets.
  • The two-year Treasury yield was presented as a gauge of market expectations for Fed policy. The speaker said it was falling after the Fed meeting, indicating a calmer market response.
  • The speaker also said the 10-year Treasury yield affects the S&P 500, Bitcoin, and other risk assets.

Takeaways

  • The speaker suggested watching oil and Treasury yields together: rising yields could be a headwind for risk assets, while falling yields could be supportive.
  • These are macro indicators in the transcript, not standalone buy or sell recommendations.

U.S. Interest Rates and Federal Reserve Policy

  • The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4%. The speaker expected a hike at the December meeting, saying the move was largely priced in.
  • The speaker said markets were pricing in at least one additional hike next year, with the possibility of a second. They described the timing as uncertain and dependent in part on oil prices and inflation data.
  • According to the speaker, a faster hike—such as one in January—could surprise markets, while lower oil prices could allow the Fed to wait longer.

Takeaways

  • The transcript’s central macro risk is not the expected December hike itself, but the possibility that higher oil prices lead to earlier or additional hikes.
  • Treat the stated hike probabilities as market expectations discussed in the episode, not as certain outcomes.

AI and Mega-Cap Technology

  • The speaker described the Nasdaq as increasingly driven by AI-related companies and said the broader AI and tech cycle still looked intact despite Alphabet’s earnings-related decline.
  • Google was contrasted with Microsoft, whose shares reportedly rose after hours, and with Meta, whose distribution and advertising reach were described as strengths despite weaker models.
  • The speaker named Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Oracle as major hyperscalers. They also said Anthropic could go public within the year and OpenAI in the first quarter of the following year, while warning that the Nasdaq could face a major correction after those events.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw continued AI investment as supportive in the near term but considered the cycle late-stage and warned about a potential correction.
  • No specific investment recommendation was made for Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, or Oracle, and the transcript did not provide a way to invest in the private AI companies ahead of any IPO.

U.S. Equity Indexes: Nasdaq and S&P 500

  • The speaker said the Nasdaq had taken a hit after Alphabet’s earnings reaction but remained in reasonable condition on a weekly view.
  • The S&P 500 was discussed as being influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield, with lower yields described as supportive for equities.
  • The speaker warned that a possible major correction in the Nasdaq could be driven by mega-cap technology companies if the AI cycle weakens.

Takeaways

  • The transcript presents equities as exposed to both AI-cycle sentiment and changes in Treasury yields.
  • Investors considering broad U.S. equity exposure should account for the speaker’s stated risk of a potential AI-led correction.
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Video Description
Bitcoin and crypto, live: the morning's news, the charts and your questions. Live every weekday at 10:30 AM ET. ---------------------------------------------------- All Exchanges and Links ✅ FOMO Social Trading: https://bacon.link/fomo (Follow my real on-chain trades live. Real money on my actual account, so you see exactly what I hold, my size, and my entries) ✅ Toobit Exchange: https://bacon.link/toobit ($50 Free Bonus, No Verification Required) ✅ PropW: https://bacon.link/propw (Trade a $50K Funded Account) ✅ Bitunix Exchange: https://bacon.link/bitunix ($5,500 Bonus, no KYC) ✅ ByBit Exchange: https://bacon.link/bybit ($30,000 Bonus, KYC Needed) 🧰 Toobit Agent Trade Kit (connect an AI agent to the exchange): https://www.toobit.com/agent-tradekit 💎 Join The Coiners, our Trading Dashboard and Community: https://thecoiners.io 📢 Follow my X for Quick Alpha: https://x.com/virtualbacon 📢 Telegram, the daily market briefing and live alerts: https://t.me/virtualbacon 📢 Courses, Exchange Guides, and All Links: https://virtualbacon.com/ ----------------------------------------------------- My Other Videos 8 Years of Crypto Trading Advice in 40 Minutes 👉 https://youtu.be/p9iEJgFReB8 Crypto Investing for Beginners, Full Course 👉 https://youtu.be/niT7g4ghm3o ----------------------------------------------------- Chapters 0:00:00 Fed held yesterday: today's plan 0:04:49 Google gaps down after earnings 0:07:19 Google vs the hyperscalers 0:14:52 FOMC: no rate hike yesterday 0:16:24 Next FOMC in December: a hike 0:20:25 How the Fed looks at inflation 0:22:28 Core PCE calculation changed 0:24:29 Headline PCE is still increasing 0:28:03 Clip: getting inflation down 0:30:06 GDP beats at 3.4%, oil too high 0:32:08 Clip: price stability not achieved yet 0:36:11 Clip: the vote split and a family fight 0:39:43 Clip: no forward guidance on more hikes 0:42:45 The PCE revision nobody mentioned 0:46:17 Prediction markets: how many hikes in 2027 0:47:54 CME FedWatch: 72% odds of a March hike 0:52:26 What the hike path means for Bitcoin 0:53:56 Oil at $115: the one chart to watch 0:56:57 Bitcoin at the bull market support band 0:59:59 Gold, the dollar and the 2-year yield 1:04:03 My Bitcoin levels: 76K to 78K buy zone 1:05:34 Q&A: is this a good point to DCA? 1:08:10 How much Bitcoin I'll sell, and Cardano 1:09:40 Midterms: what a Democrat win means 1:11:11 HYPE up on ICE and Trade XYZ 1:15:46 Fetch with Google and Meta: not a partnership 1:18:50 ICP, Akash on Solana, Near vs Render 1:23:39 Taking profit between 90K and 100K 1:30:45 Buying at 60K on February 6th 1:35:50 Holding only Bitcoin and Ethereum 1:39:22 No certainty, only a range 1:42:55 Thanks for joining, see you tomorrow ----------------------------------------------------- 📜 Disclaimer 📜 The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial, legal, or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses a considerable risk of loss. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome.
About VirtualBacon
VirtualBacon

VirtualBacon

By @virtualbacon

I'm Dennis, a Crypto angel investor with 100+ startups in our portfolio. On this channel I share my views on market trends and investing strategy for Crypto.