Bitcoin Lost $75K. Warsh Hikes Today. The Final Shakeout.
Bitcoin Lost $75K. Warsh Hikes Today. The Final Shakeout.
7 hours agoVirtualBacon@virtualbacon
YouTube1 hr 31 min
Watch on YouTube
Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Accumulate Bitcoin (BTC) on pullbacks by adding exposure at $70,000 and maximizing buys if prices hit the $66,000 capitulation floor ahead of an expected market turnaround by November.

Dollar-cost average into XRP (XRP) between $1.00 and $1.28 to exploit an overextended regulatory sell-off ahead of potential legislative clarity late this year.

Target high-upside AI crypto assets by acquiring Bittensor (TAO) near its $150–$200 floor with a price target above $700, alongside deeply discounted plays like Render (RENDER) and FET.

In traditional equities, prepare to buy the dip on semiconductor and AI infrastructure leaders when the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) enters its $9,500–$10,000 technical support zone.

Maintain caution across broader portfolios while US 10-Year Treasury Yields hold above 5% and Brent Crude Oil stays elevated above $100, as these macro headwinds could trigger short-term market volatility.

Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Bitcoin briefly dropped below $75,000 due to panic following the Senate cloture vote delay on the Clarity Act.
  • The market is in the final shakeout phase of the correction cycle, with remaining headwinds largely priced in.
  • Macro catalysts such as the upcoming midterm elections (around November 11) suggest a maximum of roughly two months left in the current bear/correction stage.
  • The downside is expected to be limited, with strong support levels identified above the $60,000 mark.

Takeaways

  • Accumulate on dips: Consider adding a 5% portfolio allocation if BTC reaches $70,000, and prepare to go all-in if price falls to the final capitulation target of $66,000.
  • Long-term outlook remains strongly bullish, targeting $1,000,000 eventually, with downside risk to $52,000 or lower deemed very unlikely.

XRP (XRP)

  • XRP suffered an outsized drawdown of over 10% to 11%, dropping significantly more than Bitcoin (which fell ~3.6%) following the delay in the Clarity Act.
  • Markets treat XRP as the primary proxy for US crypto regulation; the heavy sell-off is viewed as an irrational, high-beta reaction.
  • The Clarity Act is not entirely dead—procedural mechanisms (such as a Senate re-vote or action during the November 11 to December 18 lame-duck session) still leave a narrow path for progress.

Takeaways

  • Capitalize on panic selling by running a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy between $1.28 and $1.00.
  • XRP is positioned to be among the fastest blue-chip assets to rebound once regulatory panic cools.

AI Cryptocurrencies (TAO, RENDER, FET)

  • AI represents the largest technological megatrend in decades, making AI-themed crypto tokens the most compelling narrative-driven bet for the upcoming cycle.
  • Bittensor (TAO) is in an optimal risk/reward position: it is in its second cycle, features proof-of-work mining, and has maintained a solid price floor between $150 and $200.
  • Render (RENDER) and Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) have drawn down ~90% from peak levels (RENDER down from $12 to $1.29), making them attractively priced with potential for 10x upside.
  • Other legacy or underperforming Layer 1s and data networks—such as NEAR, ICP, AVAX, and Arweave (AR)—show weaker upside potential and diminishing cycle returns.

Takeaways

  • Focus spot AI crypto exposure on TAO (with upside targets above $700), RENDER, and FET.
  • Explore emerging compute protocols and verifiable AI compute mining projects, such as Arthur Hayes' Flop network.

AI & Semiconductor Equities (SOX)

  • Technology and semiconductor equities are experiencing short-term chop driven by rising bond yields and inflation concerns.
  • Key technical support levels:
    • Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) support is located between $9,500 (50-week SMA) and $10,000 (200-day SMA).
    • NASDAQ support sits at 27,000 (~7% downside).
    • S&P 500 critical bull/bear pivot is at the 200-day SMA of 7,000.
  • The overarching AI equity bull market is expected to remain intact at least until major pre-IPO companies (OpenAI and Anthropic) complete their public market listings.

Takeaways

  • Prepare to buy the dip on AI infrastructure (chip makers, data centers, hyperscalers, and "Magnificent 7" stocks) when the SOX reaches the $9,500 – $10,000 support zone.
  • Consider pre-IPO exposure to OpenAI and Anthropic (available via platforms like Hyperliquid) on pullbacks.

Circle ARC Chain Ecosystem

  • Circle has officially launched its Layer-1 EVM blockchain, the ARC Chain, on mainnet.
  • Because Circle has no native ARC token, network adoption and value accrual will likely concentrate on core decentralized applications.

Takeaways

  • Monitor and identify the primary decentralized exchange (DEX) and launchpad tokens deploying on the ARC Chain to capture early ecosystem upside.

Macro Assets: US 10-Year Treasuries & Brent Crude Oil

  • US 10-Year Treasury Yields have surged above 5% for the first time since 2007, creating a high benchmark hurdle rate that exerts downward pressure on equities, gold, and Bitcoin.
  • Brent Crude Oil is trading elevated between $104 and $107 per barrel due to Middle East supply constraints and pipeline shutdowns (e.g., the Yanbu pipeline in Saudi Arabia).
  • Sustained oil prices above $100 threaten to spike Core PCE inflation two months out, increasing the likelihood of additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes in late 2026.

Takeaways

  • Treat a breakout of the 10-Year Yield above 5% as a warning sign for potential corrections in broad equity indices like the S&P 500.
  • Watch for potential emergency Treasury intervention, increased bond buybacks, or expanding Quantitative Easing (QE) liquidity injections to cap yields.
Ask about this postAnswers are grounded in this post's content.
Video Description
Bitcoin lost the $75,000 handle overnight, printing a low of $74,968 hours before the Fed decides, with a quarter point hike priced at roughly nine in ten. I make the case that this is the final shakeout, a capitulation flush inside a bull market rather than a broken thesis, and I start by owning the buy calls I made on this channel yesterday on Bitcoin and XRP before the CLARITY Act vote failed 49 to 50. Then the levels: where I think the flush ends on both, what invalidates it, and what confirms it. The liquidity work is the explanation for why it is landing now, including what actually holds up in the Bitcoin and M2 relationship and why net liquidity is the better gauge. Also on the show: the ethics clause that killed the CLARITY Act, Circle's new chain using USDC as gas, altcoins against Bitcoin, the ten year Treasury yield above 5%, the semiconductor repricing, and oil after the Saudi pipeline shutdown. Live every weekday at 10:00 AM ET. ---------------------------------------------------- All Exchanges and Links ✅ FOMO Social Trading: https://bacon.link/fomo (Follow my real on-chain trades live. Real money on my actual account, so you see exactly what I hold, my size, and my entries) ✅ Toobit Exchange: https://bacon.link/toobit ($50 Free Bonus, No Verification Required) ✅ PropW: https://bacon.link/propw (Trade a $50K Funded Account) ✅ Bitunix Exchange: https://bacon.link/bitunix ($5,500 Bonus, no KYC) ✅ ByBit Exchange: https://bacon.link/bybit ($30,000 Bonus, KYC Needed) 🧰 Toobit Agent Trade Kit (connect an AI agent to the exchange): https://www.toobit.com/agent-tradekit 💎 Join The Coiners, our Trading Dashboard and Community: https://thecoiners.io 📢 Follow my X for Quick Alpha: https://x.com/virtualbacon 📢 Telegram, the daily market briefing and live alerts: https://t.me/virtualbacon 📢 Courses, Exchange Guides, and All Links: https://virtualbacon.com/ ----------------------------------------------------- My Other Videos 8 Years of Crypto Trading Advice in 40 Minutes 👉 https://youtu.be/p9iEJgFReB8 Crypto Investing for Beginners, Full Course 👉 https://youtu.be/niT7g4ghm3o ----------------------------------------------------- Chapters 0:00:00 Why This Is the Final Shakeout and Not a Long Correction 0:02:00 Today's Agenda 0:07:02 The Clarity Act Cloture Vote Failed 49 to 50 0:08:32 Was It Priced In? What the Prediction Markets Actually Showed 0:12:35 Why It Is Not Over Yet: The Tillis Revote Path 0:16:37 Eleven Working Days Left, Then the Lame Duck Session 0:22:42 XRP Fell Three Times Harder Than Bitcoin 0:27:44 Answering the XRP Pushback in the Chat 0:33:35 The Fed at 2PM and Why This Hike Is Fully Priced In 0:36:52 The Dot Plot Is the Event, Not the Hike 0:44:58 Circle's Arc Chain Goes Live on Mainnet 0:47:30 The 10 Year Yield Broke Above 5% for the First Time Since 2007 0:50:32 QE Is Too Slow and Treasury Buybacks Are Not Working 0:54:06 Oil, the Yanbu Shutdown and Brent at $104 0:57:10 Why Oil Above $100 Shows Up in Core PCE Two Months Later 0:59:44 Stock Levels I Watch: Nasdaq 27,000 and Semis Near 10,000 1:03:45 Bonds, Money Printing and Who Really Holds the Debt 1:06:00 My Bitcoin Levels: Adding at 70K, All In at 66K 1:11:37 On Shorting Solana at the End of a Bear Market 1:14:09 Why AI Becomes the Easiest Crypto Narrative Next Cycle 1:17:35 Did Warsh Get Rid of the Dot Plot? 1:21:05 The AI Coins I Would Hold, Starting With TAO 1:24:24 NEAR Against TAO, Zoomed All the Way Out 1:27:40 Why Render and Fetch AI Look Cheaper From Here 1:29:50 Close ----------------------------------------------------- 📜 Disclaimer 📜 The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial, legal, or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses a considerable risk of loss. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome. #Bitcoin #Crypto #XRP #FOMC #Fed #CLARITYAct #VirtualBacon
About VirtualBacon
VirtualBacon

VirtualBacon

By @virtualbacon

I'm Dennis, a Crypto angel investor with 100+ startups in our portfolio. On this channel I share my views on market trends and investing strategy for Crypto.