Consider Aster (ASTR) as a high-potential trade, with an ideal entry for a multi-month hold in the $1.40 - $1.50 range, based on the thesis that Binance will support its price to compete with Hyperliquid. It is strongly advised not to short ASTR due to its tightly controlled supply, which makes it susceptible to a short squeeze. In contrast, Hyperliquid (HYPE) is viewed as overvalued at its $14 billion market cap and should be avoided at current prices. For those interested in airdrop farming, actively trading on the Leiter exchange presents a current opportunity to earn its upcoming token. Ultimately, view these PerpDEX coins as short-to-medium-term trades rather than long-term investments.

Aster (ASTR)

• Aster is a new perpetual decentralized exchange (PerpDEX) positioned as a direct competitor to Hyperliquid.
• It is heavily backed by Binance, with Binance Labs being the sole investor. The speaker notes that 91.8% of the token supply is held by the team and related entities, with another 1% in a Binance wallet.
• The speaker views Aster as an "exchange coin," similar to BNB or Crypto.com coin, and not a truly decentralized protocol for long-term holding. Its value is tied to the success of its exchange.
• The core strategy is to replicate Hyperliquid's success by using a points program, airdrops, and other "flywheel effects" to attract traders.
• The speaker draws a strong comparison to the PancakeSwap (CAKE) vs. Uniswap (UNI) dynamic from 2020-2021, where the Binance-backed PancakeSwap successfully took market share and outperformed Uniswap for a period, despite having less innovative technology. The theory is that Binance is using Aster to do the same to Hyperliquid.
• Bullish Sentiment: The speaker is bullish on Aster's potential to outperform Hyperliquid during this bull run for several reasons:
  • Lower Market Cap: Aster's market cap is $3 billion, while Hyperliquid's is $14 billion. In a bull market, lower market cap assets generally have higher upside potential.
  • Binance's Motivation: Binance's goal is not to make a quick profit by selling the token, but to diminish Hyperliquid's market share and "magic." This means they are incentivized to ensure Aster's token price performs well.
  • Upcoming Catalysts: Potential catalysts include new tokens launching first on Aster's spot market and then being fast-tracked for a Binance listing, the introduction of a token buyback-and-burn mechanism, and easier listings on other major exchanges due to Binance's influence.
• Tokenomics Concern: A large portion of the supply (53%) is allocated for airdrops over 80 months, which looks like high inflation. However, the speaker believes this is a deliberate "vampire attack" strategy to attract users, similar to what PancakeSwap did with its initial uncapped supply. They expect Aster to later introduce a supply cap and deflationary mechanisms like token burns.

Takeaways

• Investment Thesis: Aster is presented as a high-risk, high-reward trade for the current bull market, not a long-term investment. The bet is on Binance using its power to pump Aster's price to compete with Hyperliquid.
• Entry Strategy: The speaker has sold their initial position and is waiting for a significant dip to buy back in.
  • A potential short-term entry point is identified around $1.70 using Fibonacci retracement.
  • A more ideal entry for a multi-month hold would be in the $1.40 - $1.50 range, provided the price stabilizes there for several days.
• Major Risk Warning: The speaker strongly advises against shorting Aster. Because the supply is heavily controlled by Binance and the token trades on its own exchange, the "house" can easily push the price up, leading to massive losses for short-sellers.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

• Hyperliquid is a popular perpetual exchange that has seen massive success, with its token (HYPE) reaching a $14 billion market cap.
• The speaker also categorizes it as an "exchange coin" and is not a long-term believer in the project's fundamentals as a decentralized protocol.
• Its success is attributed to "number go up technology"—a successful airdrop, a points program that rewards traders, and a strong token price performance which creates a positive feedback loop.
• While the platform is smooth and has deep liquidity, the speaker argues that most users are there for the token's performance, not because the exchange is fundamentally better than a centralized giant like Binance.
• Bearish Sentiment: The speaker believes Hyperliquid is currently overvalued and faces a major threat from Binance's new competitor, Aster.
  • Binance is actively trying to take market share from Hyperliquid, which is currently processing as high as 14% of Binance's spot volume and 18% of its perpetuals volume.
  • Hyperliquid's token is not listed on major centralized exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, or OKX, limiting its accessibility to a wider retail audience.

Takeaways

• Investment Insight: The speaker considers Hyperliquid "too expensive" at its current $14 billion valuation and would not buy the token at these levels.
• Competitive Risk: The primary risk for Hyperliquid is the direct, well-funded competition from Aster, which is backed by the full force of the Binance ecosystem. The narrative that made Hyperliquid special is now being diluted.

Leiter

• Leiter is another perpetual exchange and a direct competitor to both Hyperliquid and Aster.
• It is following the same playbook of using a points and airdrop system to attract traders and liquidity.
• The speaker mentions that he was farming both Aster and Leiter before Aster's launch.

Takeaways

• Airdrop Opportunity: The speaker is currently trading most heavily on Leiter to farm its upcoming airdrop.
• For investors interested in the PerpDEX narrative and willing to actively trade to earn rewards, Leiter is presented as a current opportunity to get in early on a potential airdrop.

Investment Theme: Perpetual DEX (PerpDEX) Coins

• The discussion frames PerpDEXs like Aster and Hyperliquid as being much closer to centralized exchanges with no KYC than truly decentralized protocols like Uniswap.
• The primary driver of their success and token value is not technology but "number go up technology": airdrops, points programs, and controlled tokenomics designed to create hype and attract speculative traders.

Takeaways

• Trading Strategy: These coins should be viewed as short-to-medium-term trades to capitalize on bull market narratives and hype cycles.
• Long-Term View: The speaker does not believe these are suitable for long-term holding, as their value is not based on sustainable, decentralized fundamentals and they will likely lose relevance after the bull run ends.