Why Crypto Buybacks Are 'the Wrong Way to Allocate Capital'
Why Crypto Buybacks Are 'the Wrong Way to Allocate Capital'
1 hour ago•Unchained•Laura Shin
Podcast59 min 43 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Prioritize the strongest growth theme: tokenized equities and real-world assets (RWAs); track on-chain supply, trading activity, and secondary-market access, with tokenized equities potentially surpassing stablecoins in on-chain supply within three years.
  • For stablecoin exposure, focus on the established network effects of USDC and USDT; the stablecoin market is estimated at about $300 billion and could grow more than 40% annually over the next few years.
  • New Bitcoin buyers may consider a spot Bitcoin ETF for simpler custody; treat quantum security as a long-term risk to monitor, not an imminent failure prediction.
  • Be cautious on ETH until Ethereum clarifies how Layer 2 growth will translate into durable value for the token; the discussion offered no price target or near-term catalyst.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The guest believes Bitcoin developers and major industry participants are taking the quantum-computing threat more seriously than they were a year ago. He expects the community to find a solution and transition before quantum computers can break current signatures, though he did not specify what will happen to Satoshi’s coins.
  • Quantum risk is still a concern: the guest said advances in AI and quantum computing make long-term timelines difficult to forecast. He also noted that Bitcoin’s decentralized governance could make it harder to agree on a transition.
  • For a first-time buyer, the guest said he would generally recommend a spot Bitcoin ETF rather than self-custody. If using an exchange, he advised researching its security record, licenses, incident response, and emergency fund. He said U.S. exchanges may have an advantage because they are more regulated and have public financial disclosures.
  • He argued that Bitcoin’s security economics also need attention if the network is to remain secure over the long term.

Takeaways

  • Consider the custody method as part of Bitcoin exposure: the guest favors ETFs for many newcomers and emphasizes careful exchange due diligence for those choosing exchange custody.
  • Treat quantum security as a meaningful, unresolved long-term risk—not as a prediction that Bitcoin will fail. The guest was more reassured about progress toward a solution than he had been a year earlier.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • The guest was bearish on Ethereum’s current value accrual. He said the base layer collects relatively little revenue while much of the activity has moved to Layer 2 networks such as Base and Robinhood’s chain.
  • As an example, he said Robinhood was generating several million dollars a day while Ethereum’s base layer was accruing roughly $100–$200.
  • He argued that Ethereum needs to choose a clearer strategy: prioritize activity on Layer 1, or embrace a franchise model and improve how it supports and captures value from Layer 2 networks.
  • He still sees a possible scenario in which Ethereum holds substantial assets and remains valuable even without generating much revenue, but described that as a low-probability case he would not prefer to invest on.
  • On quantum readiness, he said Ethereum has considered the issue for years and has a roadmap, though broader coordination and adoption of replacement signatures remain challenges.

Takeaways

  • The discussion raises a key diligence question for ETH: whether growth on Layer 2s will translate into durable value for the ETH asset.
  • Watch for clearer plans on Ethereum’s role in scaling, Layer 2 support, and value capture. The guest’s comments were critical of current economics, not a claim that Ethereum has no future value.

Solana (SOL)

  • The guest named Solana as one of the networks where tokenized-equity activity is taking place, alongside Base and Robinhood’s chain.
  • He also included Solana among Layer 1 networks that may need to scale throughput substantially if uses such as AI-agent commerce become significant.
  • He said broader RWA adoption could bring new users and assets to crypto, but did not give a specific Solana price outlook.

Takeaways

  • Solana’s potential discussed here is tied to activity in tokenized assets and its ability to scale. These are themes to monitor, not a specific buy recommendation.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • The guest said Hyperliquid currently has the largest share of its market, but expects perpetual futures trading to become more competitive and increasingly regulated.
  • He criticized using token buybacks as a default capital-allocation strategy, arguing that a project may be better served investing in growth, technology, talent, or acquisitions.
  • He half-jokingly suggested Hyperliquid could acquire Gemini, while making the broader point that large token networks could use their resources for strategic expansion rather than automatically buying and burning tokens.

Takeaways

  • Assess Hyperliquid’s ability to compete as rivals enter the market and regulation develops.
  • Do not treat buybacks alone as evidence of a strong business or token thesis; consider whether capital is being used to build lasting growth and competitive advantages.

Stablecoins: USDC and USDT

  • The guest was bullish on the network effects and liquidity advantages of USDC and USDT, arguing that stablecoin adoption is concentrated in these two assets.
  • He estimated the stablecoin market at about $300 billion and said it could continue growing at more than 40% annually over the next few years.
  • He described stablecoins’ current product-market fit largely as a way to provide access to U.S. dollars in emerging markets. He expects additional uses, such as remittances, to develop.
  • He argued that switching stablecoins can be risky for large platforms: Binance, he noted, holds roughly $45 billion in USDT and has not switched despite potentially being offered yield by competitors.
  • In his view, Circle’s business could expand beyond USDC over time. He also argued that it is difficult to build a major stablecoin network because of regulatory, licensing, reliability, and trust requirements.

Takeaways

  • The guest’s positive thesis centers on adoption, liquidity, and switching costs—not simply on the number of new stablecoin issuers.
  • For stablecoin-related exposure, the discussion highlights the importance of issuer credibility, regulatory access, security, and integrations with exchanges and other platforms.

Tokenized Equities and Real-World Assets (RWAs)

  • The guest was strongly bullish on tokenization, describing equities and other RWAs as a major potential growth area for crypto.
  • He predicted that tokenized equities could surpass stablecoins in on-chain supply within three years. He also said tokenized equities had recently reached about 1% of global stablecoin supply.
  • He expects early growth to be concentrated in a limited number of stocks and driven by distributing access to U.S. assets in offshore and emerging markets. He said spot tokenized equities may take longer because of the need to connect with custodians, clearinghouses, and other market infrastructure.
  • He said ARK Invest has brought its $1.3 billion ARKVX venture fund on-chain through Securitize. At the time discussed, investors could subscribe to and redeem from the fund on-chain, but there was no secondary on-chain trading market.
  • He also argued that equities could bring new, less-correlated sources of yield to crypto markets, which he described as currently relying heavily on leverage and crypto-asset yields.

Takeaways

  • Tokenization is the episode’s clearest growth theme, but the guest emphasized that the market is still early and that infrastructure and regulation remain important.
  • Track actual on-chain supply, trading activity, investor access, and secondary-market development rather than relying only on forecasts.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

  • The guest used Robinhood’s revenue from its chain as an example of a mismatch between activity on Layer 2 networks and revenue accruing to Ethereum’s base layer.
  • He also described Robinhood as one of the platforms positioned to attract new crypto users by abstracting away self-custody and other technical complexity.
  • Robinhood was mentioned as a venue for tokenized-equity activity, but the guest did not provide a valuation or a stock recommendation.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to Robinhood’s potential role in crypto distribution and tokenized assets, while also highlighting the question of how much value flows to the underlying blockchain.

Coinbase (COIN)

  • Coinbase was mentioned as a platform that could bring new users into crypto by making access and custody simpler.
  • The guest included Coinbase among U.S. companies that may be better positioned on security and regulation than some overseas exchanges.
  • Coinbase’s x402 protocol was cited as an early example of infrastructure for payments by AI agents; the guest said usage remains nascent.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlights Coinbase’s potential advantages in user access, regulation, and crypto infrastructure, but does not establish that agent-driven payments are yet a meaningful business.

Circle (CRCL) and Tether

  • The guest described Circle and Tether as large, established stablecoin businesses with meaningful network effects and strong positions in on-chain liquidity.
  • He said Circle could become a broader “internet money” company, with future business beyond its current stablecoin products.
  • He argued that stablecoin businesses require substantial regulatory coverage, reliability, and trust, making it difficult for new entrants to scale.

Takeaways

  • The positive case discussed for Circle and Tether rests on adoption, liquidity, and the difficulty of displacing established stablecoins. The transcript does not provide price targets or a direct stock recommendation for Circle.

Cloudflare (NET) and AI-Agent Commerce

  • The guest said Cloudflare is exploring blockchain-based payments that could let AI agents make small payments to access online content or services.
  • He described this as an interesting potential intersection between traditional internet infrastructure and crypto, but said the use case is still early.
  • The throughput requirements discussed were 10 million to 100 million transactions per second, which he said current networks are far from achieving.

Takeaways

  • AI-agent payments are a speculative, early-stage theme. Monitor whether real usage develops and whether blockchain networks can meet the required scale before treating it as an established investment opportunity.

Crypto Exchanges, Self-Custody, and Security

  • The guest said centralized exchanges may be better equipped than individual users to manage security and future cryptographic transitions, and expects many new users to favor exchanges or other custodial services over hardware or browser wallets.
  • He described exchange security and regulation as increasingly important competitive advantages, particularly for firms with a strong security record, licenses across jurisdictions, and transparent financial information.
  • He also cited risks from hacks, phishing, and hardware-wallet supply-chain attacks, including incidents involving third-party vendors. He characterized the hardware-wallet sector as difficult to build in and monetize.
  • The conversation noted that crypto losses from hacks and scams are already substantial, making it harder to distinguish a potential quantum-related theft from ordinary security incidents.

Takeaways

  • Security, custody, and regulatory capabilities may be important investment themes as crypto adoption broadens.
  • For users evaluating an exchange, investigate its security history, incident response, emergency reserves, licensing, and financial disclosures. The guest did not claim that any custody option is risk-free.

Buybacks and Crypto Capital Allocation

  • The guest criticized very early-stage crypto projects that use all or nearly all revenue to buy back and burn their tokens. He said this can signal that a team sees limited growth opportunities and may be a poor use of capital.
  • He argued that investors should look for a credible plan to grow the business—for example, expanding a stablecoin or entering adjacent markets—rather than relying on token buybacks.
  • He said buyback programs, even if described as programmatic, do not guarantee future commitment; investors still need to evaluate the team and its decisions.
  • He cited past projects such as dYdX, OpenSea, and Blur as examples of companies whose prior token models and buybacks did not ensure lasting success.

Takeaways

  • Evaluate a project’s capital allocation by asking whether spending builds products, users, distribution, or durable competitive advantages.
  • Treat buybacks as one possible use of funds—not as proof of value or a substitute for a viable growth strategy.

Other Networks and Protocols: Sui, Aptos, Uniswap, Aave, Morpho, and LayerZero

  • The guest said current activity on networks such as Sui and Aptos remains relatively small, and that high throughput could become important for future use cases.
  • He named Uniswap, Aave, and Morpho as examples of crypto infrastructure and lending markets. He said much of the yield available in DeFi is tied to leverage or looping crypto-asset yields, rather than a broad range of independent assets.
  • He said LayerZero planned to launch an L1 and expected its throughput to be impressive, while emphasizing that the whole industry remains far from the scale needed for large-scale AI-agent commerce.

Takeaways

  • For these networks and protocols, the discussion points to adoption, real economic activity, and scalability as key factors to monitor.
  • The guest’s comments were exploratory; he did not offer specific price targets or direct recommendations for these tokens or protocols.

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Episode Description
ARK Invest's Lorenzo Valente says quantum fears and the Ledger hack are speeding up the death of self-custody, that Ethereum has to pick a lane, and buybacks are “crazy.” ======================================================== Thank you to our sponsor! Put your crypto to work with Nexo: earn daily interest or borrow funds against your assets on one platform trusted by more than 10 million clients. Find out more at https://unchainedcrypto.com/go/nexo-podcast-sn. Geo-restrictions, eligibility and terms apply. ======================================================== Quick favor: We're deciding what Unchained does next; new shows, stream times, what's worth paying for.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Our listener survey⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ takes five minutes, it's anonymous, and I read the write-in answers myself. Everyone who takes it can enter a drawing for a free year of Unchained Premium or Bits + Bips Premium. Open through Sunday, October 18. — Laura ======================================================== Justin Drake warned that ECDSA, the cryptography securing Bitcoin and Ethereum, could break before Q-Day, in the worst case "in months, not years," and an attack on Ledger devices sold through a third-party reseller has led to about $100 million in losses. Lorenzo Valente, Director of Research, Digital Assets at ARK Invest, says both threats speed up a trend ARK already saw: self-custody is slowly dying. He tells Laura Shin why ARK favors a barbell of exchanges that own the user and infrastructure like Solana, Uniswap, and Aave, and why he would point a first-time Bitcoin buyer to an ETF. They also cover Satoshi's coins, why Ethereum's L1 accrues so little while Robinhood makes millions, and why he calls the buyback craze irrational. Plus: ARK's tokenized venture fund, Cloudflare's agentic commerce plans, and why Binance has never swapped out its USDT despite earning no yield. If he's right, crypto's next wave of users may never hold their own keys. Host: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Laura Shin⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, Host / Unchained Guest: ⁠⁠⁠⁠Lorenzo Valente - Director of Research, Digital Assets at ARK Invest Timestamps 🔭 01:27 Why Lorenzo says crypto investing is moving from '0 to 1' to '1 to 100' 🧮 08:41 Justin Drake's ECDSA warning and why RIAs keep asking ARK about quantum 💸 16:42 Nexo: Generate daily interest on your crypto or borrow against your assets at https://unchainedcrypto.com/go/nexo-podcast-yt 🏋️ 17:31 The barbell: why Lorenzo favors exchanges and core crypto infrastructure 🪙 24:34 Satoshi's coins and why Lorenzo is less worried about Bitcoin's quantum fix 🔐 26:28 Ledger, Bitget, and why Lorenzo sees 'nowhere to hide' in hardware wallets 🍔 30:11 Ethereum's 'franchise model' and why Lorenzo says L1 value accrual is broken 🔥 38:04 Why Lorenzo thinks crypto has gone 'crazy' over token buybacks 📈 45:17 Why ARK thinks tokenized equities could pass stablecoin supply in 3 years 🤖 51:04 Cloudflare, AI bots, and why L1s are still orders of magnitude too slow 💵 54:05 Why Binance never dropped USDT, and what that says about Tether and Circle Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
About Unchained
Unchained

Unchained

By Laura Shin

Crypto assets and blockchain technology are about to transform every trust-based interaction of our lives, from financial services to identity to the Internet of Things. In this podcast, host Laura Shin, an independent journalist covering all things crypto, talks with industry pioneers about how crypto assets and blockchains will change the way we earn, spend and invest our money. Tune in to find out how Web 3.0, the decentralized web, will revolutionize our world. Disclosure: I'm a nocoiner.