The Chopping Block: The Midterm Mega Tsunami, a16z Goes Frontier, the CFTC Clears Equity Perps, and the Fight Over Abliterated AI Models
The Chopping Block: The Midterm Mega Tsunami, a16z Goes Frontier, the CFTC Clears Equity Perps, and the Fight Over Abliterated AI Models
2 hours ago•Unchained•Laura Shin
Podcast55 min 57 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Hyperliquid may benefit if U.S. equity perpetual futures draw trading activity onshore, but wait for clarity on the CFTC rollout and the Cboe–Citadel lawsuit before acting.
  • Track AI data-center permitting and investment outside the U.S.; the panel saw potential opportunities for CoreWeave and Crusoe, but disagreed on whether capacity constraints would help established providers or limit growth.
  • Treat Bitcoin’s roughly 3% and Ethereum’s roughly 6% post-election gains as short-term market context, not a buy signal; no price targets or sustained outlook were provided.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • After the midterm results, Bitcoin rose about 3%. The discussion linked the broader market move to the election but did not attribute the gain to a specific crypto policy change.
  • The panel described the next two years as likely to involve political conflict and little progress on crypto legislation, while noting that many newly elected lawmakers were rated pro-crypto.

Takeaways

  • Treat the post-election price move as short-term market context, not a stated long-term outlook. The panel offered no price target or specific recommendation for Bitcoin.
  • Track whether congressional investigations and debates over crypto legislation change the regulatory outlook; the discussion did not establish how those developments would affect Bitcoin specifically.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • Ethereum rose about 6% after the midterms, compared with Bitcoin’s roughly 3% gain.
  • One speaker called ETH “the ultimate pump,” but the comment was not accompanied by a forecast, valuation argument, or recommendation.

Takeaways

  • The stronger one-day move is a point of market context, not evidence in the discussion of a sustained trend.
  • The transcript provides no price target or specific Ethereum catalyst beyond the broad post-election market reaction.

Polymarket

  • The panel identified itself as an investor in Polymarket and discussed its election prediction markets.
  • Polymarket’s favorite won 419 of 426 races, according to figures cited in the conversation. The panel viewed the markets as particularly strong at indicating the overall result, while acknowledging that some individual races were mispriced.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presents prediction markets as a potentially useful source of election probabilities, especially when considering aggregate outcomes.
  • The figures relate to one election cycle and do not establish future accuracy or investment returns. The transcript gives no public ticker or way for general investors to buy into Polymarket.

Hyperliquid

  • The panel said Hyperliquid could benefit from the CFTC clearing certain U.S. equity perpetual futures, particularly after Hyperliquid announced a partnership with ICE.
  • The speakers noted that U.S.-based firms could find it easier to trade domestically rather than rely on offshore venues, but the product’s rollout faces a legal challenge from Cboe and Citadel.

Takeaways

  • The potential opportunity discussed is increased access to U.S. trading activity, not a specific token or price forecast.
  • Track the litigation and implementation of the CFTC decision: either could affect how quickly the market develops. The transcript does not name a Hyperliquid token or provide a price target.

Anthropic

  • Anthropic’s shares were reported higher in pre-market futures/perpetual markets after the election.
  • The company reported Q3 revenue of $17 billion, up from $11.5 billion in Q2—about 50% quarter over quarter. It moved from operating profit in Q2 to a slight operating loss in Q3.
  • Anthropic added a risk factor concerning recursive self-improvement (RSI): the possibility that AI models could help improve later models and accelerate progress. The panel discussed regulation as a possible consequence of such concerns.
  • Speakers debated whether slower U.S. data-center construction could benefit established AI companies by limiting new competition, or constrain growth by restricting available compute.

Takeaways

  • The reported revenue growth is notable, but the return to an operating loss and the uncertainty around compute supply are also relevant to assessing the business.
  • Anthropic is not presented as a publicly listed stock. The transcript gives no share-price target or public-market recommendation.

NVIDIA (NVDA), CoreWeave (CRWV), Crusoe, and AI Data Centers

  • The panel discussed political opposition to new data-center construction, including a Texas campaign that called for slowing or potentially pausing new projects.
  • Some speakers suggested slower U.S. capacity growth could favor companies that already control compute or have secured supply. Others argued that less compute could limit overall growth and economic value.
  • The discussion said NVIDIA and most hyperscaler stocks were down, alongside weaker demand for memory and chips, while noting that the longer-term effect of data-center constraints was disputed.
  • CoreWeave and Crusoe were mentioned in connection with a possible acceleration of data-center investment outside the United States. Speakers expected non-U.S. capacity and financing to grow, though the scale and beneficiaries were uncertain.

Takeaways

  • The key investment theme is the balance between demand for AI compute and the pace at which new data centers can be built and supplied.
  • Monitor local permitting and political opposition, as well as where new capacity is being financed and built. The panel disagreed about whether constrained supply would help established providers or limit industry growth.
  • The transcript offers no price targets or company-specific recommendations.

Equity Perpetual Futures

  • The CFTC said U.S.-listed equity perpetual futures could trade on certain exchanges registered for security futures.
  • Cboe and Citadel sued, arguing that the products should be treated as swaps and subject to limits. Speakers speculated that incumbent firms might want more time to prepare, but did not establish the plaintiffs’ motives.
  • The panel saw the change as a possible opportunity to bring trading activity into the United States rather than leave it to offshore venues.

Takeaways

  • The potential opportunity is a new U.S. market for equity-linked derivatives and related trading services.
  • The lawsuit is a material uncertainty: follow its outcome and the regulatory treatment before drawing conclusions about which platforms or firms may benefit. The discussion did not provide specific investment recommendations.

Trump Coin and World Liberty Financial

  • The panel cited Trump Coin and World Liberty Financial as examples of Trump-related crypto ventures likely to draw political scrutiny.
  • Speakers said Democrats had made disciplining Trump’s crypto ventures part of their agenda and expected the issues to feature in hearings and public debate. They also noted that new lawmakers included many people rated pro-crypto.

Takeaways

  • The transcript highlights political and regulatory scrutiny as a risk for these ventures.
  • It does not identify a specific token ticker, price target, or endorsement. Treat political attention as a source of uncertainty rather than a stated investment catalyst.

NEAR and Obliterated AI Models

  • The panel discussed NEAR as a service provider for “obliterated” AI models—open models modified to remove refusal behavior. Venice and Obliteration.ai were also mentioned in this context; one speaker said the panel’s firm invests in Venice.
  • Speakers argued that these models can support cybersecurity defense and research, while acknowledging that they can also be misused. They viewed attempts to regulate the models out of existence as difficult, and discussed possible liability for providers who negligently serve harmful uses.

Takeaways

  • The investment theme is the infrastructure and services around open AI models, including privacy, model access, and cybersecurity applications.
  • The discussion identifies legal and misuse concerns, particularly for hosted services, but offers no company valuations, token tickers beyond NEAR, or investment recommendations.

Crypto and AI Venture-Capital Themes

  • a16z Crypto became a16z Frontier, widening its focus beyond crypto to areas such as new computing paradigms and AI-related applications. The panel framed the change as part of a broader shift toward “frontier” technology investing.
  • The speakers also recalled that Paradigm had earlier expanded its mandate to include AI, after which it faced criticism—an example of how views on crypto-and-AI venture investing have changed.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to a broader investment theme: venture capital firms are increasingly combining crypto with AI and other emerging technologies.
  • These are private-fund and venture-capital developments, not direct public-market opportunities described in the transcript.
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Episode Description
Welcome to The Chopping Block, where crypto insiders Haseeb Qureshi, Tom Schmidt, Tarun Chitra, and Robert Leshner chop it up about the latest in crypto. This week Haseeb is back in the host's chair after two weeks away. The hosts start with a16z Crypto becoming a16z Frontier, and Robert remembers how Twitter bullied Paradigm for trying the same thing in 2023. Then the midterms: a blue mega tsunami that Polymarket had called at 99% by 7 PM, Robert's case that the polls missed the size of the wave yet again, and what a new Congress that is roughly 2:1 pro-crypto means when the next two years are about Trump corruption, World Liberty Financial, and Trump Coin. The CFTC clears single-stock perps and Cboe and Citadel sue within hours, which Tarun can't make sense of as a market maker. Anthropic's S-1 update adds recursive self-improvement as a risk factor, the data center states go blue, and Robert explains why hedge funds think less compute is good for the frontier labs. Finally, the Foundation for American Innovation calls abliterated AI models a threat, and the hosts argue that banning them is prior restraint in the middle of a cyber apocalypse. Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pods, Fountain, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform. Show highlights 🔹 Haseeb is back after two weeks of Rob Hadick in his seat. 🔹 a16z Crypto is now a16z Frontier. Robert says when Paradigm tried the same thing in 2023, Twitter bullied it right back to crypto. 🔹 The midterms were a blue mega tsunami, and Polymarket had 99% on total control of Congress by 7 PM. 🔹 Robert says the polls underweighted the Democrats yet again, and the markets underpriced the wave because they tracked the polls. 🔹 Robert's one test for Trump on crypto: did he make America the crypto capital of the world? His answer: not really. 🔹 Haseeb runs the Stand With Crypto numbers: the new Congress is roughly 2:1 pro-crypto in both the House and the Senate. 🔹 Robert expects a pragmatic, moderate Congress, and close to zero chance of any crypto legislation in the next two years. 🔹 Tarun loves that Robert thinks Donald Trump believes in mean reversion. 🔹 Robert declares the show done talking about DC for two years. It lasts about a minute. 🔹 The CFTC clears single-stock perps, Cboe and Citadel sue within hours, and Tarun can't see why a market maker would turn down free volume. 🔹 Anthropic's S-1 update shows $17 billion in Q3 revenue and adds recursive self-improvement as a risk factor. 🔹 Robert explains why hedge funds think fewer new data centers is good for the frontier labs, and Tom says they bought all the chickens. 🔹 Tarun says the non-US compute build-out has 100X'd in two weeks. 🔹 Robert proposes renaming the show The Chipping Block. 🔹 FAI calls abliterated AI models a threat. Haseeb says security researchers depend on them, and banning them is prior restraint. 🔹 Tom went as Claude Hansen for Halloween, and Claude refused to write the prop. Hosts ⭐️Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner at Dragonfly ⭐️Tom Schmidt, General Partner at Dragonfly ⭐️Tarun Chitra, Managing Partner at Robot Ventures ⭐️Robert Leshner, Founder & CEO of Superstate Timestamps 00:00 Cold Open 00:41 Intro 02:51 a16z Goes Frontier 05:42 The Midterm Mega Tsunami 15:39 Crypto's New Congress 29:10 CFTC Clears Equity Perps 34:14 Anthropic's S-1 Update 35:35 Data Centers Go Blue 43:15 The Chipping Block 43:44 The Abliteration Threat 55:35 Wrap Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
About Unchained
Unchained

Unchained

By Laura Shin

Crypto assets and blockchain technology are about to transform every trust-based interaction of our lives, from financial services to identity to the Internet of Things. In this podcast, host Laura Shin, an independent journalist covering all things crypto, talks with industry pioneers about how crypto assets and blockchains will change the way we earn, spend and invest our money. Tune in to find out how Web 3.0, the decentralized web, will revolutionize our world. Disclosure: I'm a nocoiner.