The Chopping Block: Bitget's 387 Million Dollar Hack, Kalshi's Cooked Perps Volume, and Agentic Bank Runs
The Chopping Block: Bitget's 387 Million Dollar Hack, Kalshi's Cooked Perps Volume, and Agentic Bank Runs
2 hours ago•Unchained•Laura Shin
Podcast1 hr 5 min
Listen to Episode
Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider moving excess cash from low-yield checking accounts into U.S. Treasuries or T-bills, after accounting for liquidity needs, taxes, and settlement timing.
  • Treat Bitget cautiously after the reported $387 million hack: verify current withdrawal access and independent security and solvency updates, especially since the speakers endorsing it disclosed an investment.
  • Avoid treating staking as risk-free; before staking ETH, check whether your provider covers operational disruptions, missed rewards, or slashing—no ETH price target was provided.
  • Defer investment decisions on Kalshi until the reported CFTC investigation and planned end to liquidity incentives clarify how much of its trading activity is sustainable.
Detailed Analysis

Bitget (Private Crypto Exchange)

  • Bitget reportedly suffered a $387 million hack, likely attributed to North Korea’s Lazarus Group. The incident appeared to affect hot or warm wallets; the technical details were still unclear.
  • The speakers said Bitget had a $460 million user-protection fund, was profitable and solvent, and had begun processing withdrawals. They described the situation as contained, with claims expected to be covered.
  • The hosts disclosed that they are investors in Bitget, an important potential conflict of interest when weighing their reassuring comments.

Takeaways

  • Treat the incident as a reminder that exchange solvency and wallet security are separate risks. Assess an exchange’s security practices, financial resources, and withdrawal status rather than relying on reassuring commentary alone.
  • The transcript’s positive assessment of Bitget is based on the speakers’ account at the time of recording; it does not establish that future losses or disruptions are impossible.

THORChain (Cross-Chain Protocol)

  • The hackers reportedly used THORChain to move assets across chains. The speakers said THORChain volume tends to rise after major hacks.
  • The discussion questioned whether the protocol’s practical level of decentralization matches its claims, noting that THORChain had previously shut down after a hack.
  • The speakers contrasted THORChain’s permissive approach with protocols that apply screening or restrictions to suspected stolen funds.

Takeaways

  • Cross-chain protocols can face a trade-off between permissionless access and efforts to block suspicious activity. Consider that trade-off, along with a protocol’s history of incidents and interruptions, when evaluating exposure.
  • The discussion did not make a price forecast or recommendation for THORChain or its token.

NEAR (NEAR)

  • NEAR’s cross-chain product, NEAR Intents, was presented as a contrast to THORChain. Its Shield system reportedly refused to route more than $100 million in attempted transactions and froze about $500,000 in assets linked to the hack.
  • The speakers debated whether this kind of screening improves user protection or creates censorship and governance risks. They noted that users may prefer different levels of intervention across networks.
  • The hosts disclosed that they are investors or holders of NEAR.

Takeaways

  • NEAR’s screening approach may appeal to users who value intervention against suspected theft, but it also raises questions about who can restrict transactions and under what rules.
  • When evaluating NEAR, consider both the claimed protective measures and the associated governance and censorship trade-offs. The hosts’ disclosed investment is relevant context for their favorable discussion.

Ethereum (ETH) and Staking

  • The transcript described a compromise involving Consensys validators on Ethereum. Users’ staked principal was reportedly not stolen, but validators were exited and rotated, potentially causing foregone rewards estimated at up to 200 ETH.
  • The speakers distinguished this missed yield from slashing, which can involve loss of principal. They argued that staking should not simply be assumed to be risk-free, even though they viewed the incident’s likely impact as limited.
  • They discussed whether staking providers might offer a fixed yield or insurance against disruptions, but did not identify a confirmed product.
  • Ethereum was also used as an example of a network with limited ability to intervene in transactions. The conversation compared that design with more interventionist networks and applications, including Arbitrum, Uniswap, and privacy tools such as Railgun and Tornado Cash.

Takeaways

  • Staking can involve validator and operational risks in addition to smart-contract or bridge risks. Compare providers and understand whether a product covers missed rewards, slashing, or other losses.
  • The incident discussed did not establish a broad loss of ETH principal. The speakers’ estimates and timing expectations were informal, so do not treat them as firm forecasts.
  • The transcript did not provide a price target or recommendation for ETH.

Arbitrum (ARB) and Cross-Chain DeFi

  • Arbitrum was cited as an example of a network that had previously frozen or seized stolen assets through governance action. The speakers viewed that ability as a possible form of user protection, while acknowledging that discretionary intervention can create uncertainty.
  • The discussion framed network design as a spectrum: some systems aim to be strictly neutral, while others may intervene to block suspected theft.

Takeaways

  • Consider how a network’s governance and emergency-response powers fit your preferences. Intervention may help in some theft scenarios but can also introduce discretion and uncertainty.
  • The transcript did not provide a price outlook for ARB.

Kalshi (Private Prediction-Market Exchange)

  • Kalshi’s perpetual-futures volume came under scrutiny after an analyst alleged that trading incentives encouraged repeated, similar-sized trades and inflated reported volume. The speakers discussed a reported $3 million in open interest alongside daily volume in the hundreds of millions.
  • The CFTC was reported to be investigating Kalshi’s volume claims. Kalshi announced that it would end its liquidity-incentive program around June; the transcript did not specify a year.
  • The speakers noted that market-maker rebates are common in traditional exchanges, but questioned whether Kalshi’s incentives created a misleading impression of organic demand. They also compared the issue with incentive-driven activity at crypto derivatives venues, including Coinbase International.
  • Kalshi was reportedly targeting an IPO the following year, though the transcript gave no firm timeline.

Takeaways

  • For an exchange, distinguish organic customer activity from volume generated by rebates or other incentives. Open interest, unique users, and trading after incentives end may provide useful context alongside headline volume.
  • Regulatory scrutiny and the planned incentive changes are material uncertainties in the discussion. The transcript does not establish an IPO date or make a recommendation to invest in Kalshi.

U.S. Treasuries and T-Bills

  • The speakers discussed moving idle checking-account cash into Treasuries or T-bills to earn more than the very low rates paid on some deposit accounts.
  • They cited a rough 35-basis-point cost for insuring U.S. government credit risk through credit-default swaps, using it as a comparison point in a discussion of risk—not as a forecast or valuation recommendation.
  • They suggested that AI agents could make it easier for consumers to move cash between accounts and Treasury products, though they expected adoption to be gradual.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlights the potential cost of leaving cash in very low-yield accounts, but it does not compare specific Treasury maturities, taxes, liquidity needs, or investment alternatives.
  • Before moving cash, account for access to funds, settlement timing, and the purpose of the money. No specific Treasury yield or purchase recommendation was given.

Bank Stocks and Deposit-Focused Banks

  • The speakers argued that banks benefit when customers leave deposits in low-paying accounts: if deposit rates rise less than rates earned on bank assets, bank margins can improve.
  • They said AI agents could make it easier for customers to switch to higher-yielding products, potentially making deposits less “sticky” and putting pressure on banks’ funding costs and returns.
  • They expected this change to be gradual, not an immediate bank run. JPMorgan was mentioned in an anecdote about low deposit-account rates, not as a stock recommendation.
  • The discussion also noted that banks have historically resisted giving outside services access to customer accounts, which could slow agent-driven switching.

Takeaways

  • For bank stocks, the discussion identifies deposit retention and the cost of funding as issues to watch if automated financial agents become widely used.
  • The speakers emphasized uncertainty about adoption speed. The transcript did not recommend buying or selling any bank stock.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • Amazon was discussed as an example of a business that earns significant income from sponsored product placement and advertising. The speakers suggested that AI shopping agents could challenge advertising-based discovery if they choose products without relying on sponsored search rankings.
  • They also mentioned reports that Amazon had blocked an AI agent from making purchases, but did not establish how that policy might evolve.

Takeaways

  • The discussion raises a possible long-term question for Amazon’s advertising model if consumers increasingly delegate product research and shopping to agents.
  • This was a thematic observation, not a forecast of Amazon’s earnings or stock price.

Stablecoins and DeFi (USDC, USDT, DAI)

  • The transcript discussed USDC, USDT, and DAI in the context of freezes, cross-chain transfers, and how users may respond to different levels of transaction control.
  • The speakers noted that hackers may try to move from freezeable stablecoins into assets or networks that are harder to restrict. They also debated whether differences in censorship or security meaningfully show up in prices, concluding that quick arbitrage can limit persistent price gaps.
  • DeFi protocols were described as responsive to changing rates: funds can move between products when yields or incentives shift. The speakers also warned that agents could make many users move at once, increasing the risk of crowded behavior.

Takeaways

  • Stablecoins and DeFi products can differ in freeze powers, liquidity, and operational risk. Review the relevant issuer, protocol, and chain rather than assuming tokens with similar names have identical risks.
  • Automated yield-seeking may improve convenience but could also concentrate activity around the same opportunities. The transcript gave no specific stablecoin or DeFi token recommendation.

Coinbase (COIN) and Crypto Derivatives Venues

  • Coinbase International was mentioned as a comparison for the gap that can occur between reported derivatives volume and open interest, particularly where market-maker incentives are involved.
  • The discussion treated that gap as a reason to examine the quality and source of exchange activity, not as evidence by itself of misconduct at Coinbase.

Takeaways

  • When evaluating a crypto exchange or its business, look beyond reported volume to open interest, incentive programs, and the durability of activity after incentives change.
  • Coinbase was discussed as an industry comparison; the transcript did not express a view on COIN shares.
Ask about this postAnswers are grounded in this post's content.
Episode Description
North Korea takes $387 million from Bitget and moves it through THORChain while NEAR's Shield freezes what it can, a Consensys validator hack tests whether staking was ever the risk-free rate, a quant named Benny shows Kalshi's perps volume was cooked, and Apollo warns that AI agents are coming for your checking account. Welcome to The Chopping Block, where crypto insiders Haseeb Qureshi, Tarun Chitra, and Robert Leshner chop it up about the latest in crypto. This week the three of them record from a self-serve podcast studio in Amsterdam. Bitget loses 387 million dollars to North Korea's Lazarus Group and pays every claim from its user protection fund, but the stolen funds raise a harder question: THORChain lets them through while NEAR's Shield freezes them, so which one is actually decentralized? (Dragonfly is an investor in Bitget and NEAR.) Then a Consensys validator compromise tests staking as the risk-free rate, Robert prices insurance on US Treasuries at 35 basis points, a quant named Benny exposes Kalshi's perps volume, and the crew takes apart Apollo's warning about agentic bank runs, from Robert's one basis point checking account to Tarun's agent filing his insurance claims. Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pods, Fountain, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform. Show highlights 🔹 Bitget loses about 387 million dollars to North Korea's Lazarus Group, and its 460 million dollar user protection fund covers every claim, so there is no contagion. 🔹 The stolen funds run through THORChain while NEAR's Shield freezes around 500K and refuses to route more than 100 million, which reopens the question of what decentralization actually requires. 🔹 Robert wants only the two extremes, fully neutral infrastructure or deliberate censorship, and nothing in the middle. Haseeb counters that everything between a centralized exchange and Uniswap already is the middle. 🔹 Haseeb argues property rights mean more than valid state transitions, and that anomaly detection can enforce them in a way that is still neutral and programmatic. 🔹 Tarun explains why cross-chain intents, with their solvers and RFQs, are where all the fights happen. 🔹 A Consensys validator compromise forces a mass exit, and Robert says staking was never the risk-free rate, only the best possible one. He looks up US CDS at 35 basis points and puts Ethereum validation risk at about five. 🔹 Would Ethereum roll back an unfair slashing? Haseeb says it would to protect stakers. Robert says only if transactions were corrupted. 🔹 A quant named Benny exposes Kalshi's perps volume, 3 million of open interest against hundreds of millions in daily volume, and Kalshi ends its liquidity incentives as the CFTC reportedly investigates. 🔹 Robert on why market maker rebates are normal, and how paying makers in equity for volume made Kalshi's go so wrong. 🔹 On Apollo's agentic bank runs: Robert earns one basis point on his checking account, Tarun's agent finds 1,700 dollars in health insurance overcharges, and the panel argues the whole economy is about to look like DeFi. Hosts ⭐️Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner at Dragonfly ⭐️Tarun Chitra, Managing Partner at Robot Ventures ⭐️Robert Leshner, Founder & CEO of Superstate Disclosures Timestamps 00:00 Intro 01:42 Bitget loses $387M to North Korea 07:08 Should chains freeze hacked funds? 15:35 Chains as laboratories of democracy 21:44 The hidden premium on janky chains 27:13 Consensys compromised: is staking still risk-free? 30:53 Pricing and hedging validator risk 40:24 Kalshi's perps volume 44:17 How Kalshi's rebates went awry 53:07 Apollo's agentic bank runs 56:04 A banking system built on consumer laziness 1:02:46 SVB-style runs at agent speed 1:02:46 SVB-style runs at agent speed 1:05:01 Homo economicus is back Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
About Unchained
Unchained

Unchained

By Laura Shin

Crypto assets and blockchain technology are about to transform every trust-based interaction of our lives, from financial services to identity to the Internet of Things. In this podcast, host Laura Shin, an independent journalist covering all things crypto, talks with industry pioneers about how crypto assets and blockchains will change the way we earn, spend and invest our money. Tune in to find out how Web 3.0, the decentralized web, will revolutionize our world. Disclosure: I'm a nocoiner.