The Chopping Block: Arthur Hayes & Tom Lee; Hyperliquid vs Aster, DATs & ETH - Ep. 917
The Chopping Block: Arthur Hayes & Tom Lee; Hyperliquid vs Aster, DATs & ETH - Ep. 917
217 days agoUnchainedLaura Shin
Podcast44 min 29 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Gain exposure to Ethereum by investing in BitMine, the largest publicly traded ETH treasury, which is attracting significant institutional capital. For investors interested in the returning privacy narrative, Zcash (ZEC) offers a regulator-friendly option with renewed market interest. Explore the emerging fixed income sector by researching Pendle (PENDLE), a leading project in yield trading identified as a major growth opportunity. Consider WorldCoin (WLD) as a strategic investment in the "proof of humanity" infrastructure essential for the AI era. Due to intense competition and upcoming token unlocks for Hyperliquid (HYPE), a safer strategy is to diversify across a basket of top PerpDex tokens.

Detailed Analysis

Ethereum (ETH) & Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs)

  • The discussion centers on Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), which are publicly traded companies that hold large amounts of a single cryptocurrency, effectively acting as a proxy investment for that asset.
  • BitMine is highlighted as the largest ETH treasury, holding over 2.65 million ETH, which is more than 2% of the entire supply.
  • Tom Lee, the chairman of BitMine, is portrayed as a key figure in promoting Ethereum to institutional and traditional investors, earning the title "chief marketing officer of Ethereum."
  • BitMine and MicroStrategy (MSTR), a Bitcoin DAT, now account for 90% of the daily trading volume for all DATs, indicating significant consolidation in the space.
  • BitMine's success is attributed to a simple, powerful message ("ETH is in a super cycle"), strong institutional connections (e.g., ARK Invest is a top 10 holder), and the resulting "flywheel" of investment and liquidity.
  • A counterargument from Andrew Kong suggests the Ethereum thesis is flawed because applications and banks using the network will not want to pay high fees. Tom Lee humorously dismisses this, indicating confidence in the long-term value proposition.
  • The broader DAT market is seen as "dying down" and consolidating. There are around 70 ETH DATs, but the market will likely only support a few winners.
  • DATs for smaller coins or those trading below their net asset value (NAV) are considered to be in a precarious position.

Takeaways

  • Bullish on Ethereum: The emergence of a successful, institutionally-focused vehicle like BitMine provides a strong marketing and investment channel for ETH, potentially driving significant demand from traditional finance.
  • Invest in Leaders: The DAT market is consolidating heavily. For investors looking at this space, the focus should be on the largest and most liquid DATs like BitMine for ETH exposure, as smaller ones face an "existential question."
  • BitMine as a Proxy: Investing in BitMine stock is presented as a way to gain exposure to ETH, managed by a team actively working to increase the value and adoption of the Ethereum ecosystem. The company is also expanding to support other ecosystem projects like WorldCoin.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) & The PerpDex Wars

  • Hyperliquid is the largest decentralized perpetuals exchange (PerpDex), but it is now facing intense competition in what is being called the "PerpDex Wars."
  • New competitors are rapidly gaining market share, most notably Aster, which is affiliated with Binance/BNB Chain and is posting massive, albeit potentially incentive-driven, trading volumes.
  • Major centralized exchanges are entering the fray by backing their own PerpDex "horses": Bybit with Apex and Coinbase with Avantis.
  • Arthur Hayes, a prominent trader, revealed he sold his HYPE position due to what he calls a "sword of Damocles" hanging over the project.
    • This refers to upcoming token unlocks worth ~$500 million per year starting in November.
    • This massive supply increase is now a major risk because Hyperliquid is no longer the undisputed market leader, making the "bullish unlock" narrative less credible.
  • The sentiment is mixed. While Arthur Hayes sold due to competition and unlocks, others believe the entire PerpDex market will grow exponentially ("100x"), suggesting that owning a piece of the top players (a "basket" approach) is the right move, similar to owning all major tech stocks in the 2010s.
  • The core product, a perpetual swap, is highly commoditized. Success may come down to factors like user interface, mobile access (which Aster has and Hyperliquid does not), and go-to-market strategy.

Takeaways

  • Increased Risk for Hyperliquid: The investment case for HYPE is now more complex. While it has strong technology, rising competition and massive upcoming token unlocks present significant headwinds. Investors should monitor its ability to maintain market share against heavily backed competitors.
  • Consider a "Basket" Approach: The PerpDex sector is in a high-growth, high-competition phase. Instead of picking one winner, investors might consider diversifying across several leading platforms like Hyperliquid, Aster, Lidar, and Apex to gain exposure to the overall sector's growth.
  • Wait and See: A prudent approach could be to wait and observe how the market dynamics play out, particularly how sticky user activity is on new platforms like Lidar after their initial incentive programs and airdrops conclude.

Plasma (XPL)

  • Plasma is a new Layer 1 blockchain focused on stablecoins, incubated by and affiliated with Tether (USDT).
  • It launched with a massive airdrop and is trading at a very high fully diluted valuation (~$8.5 billion).
  • The chain's main feature is zero-fee USDT transfers, and it is currently running a "gigantic farm" by offering ~$500 million a year in incentives to attract users and liquidity.
  • The general sentiment is skeptical. It's compared to "Berachain for stablecoins," meaning its current activity is almost entirely driven by people farming the XPL token rewards, not by organic use.
  • The key challenge for Plasma will be to create long-term, sustainable demand for its network once the lucrative farming incentives run out. Attracting stablecoin users away from entrenched networks like Tron and Ethereum is considered very difficult.

Takeaways

  • High-Risk Speculative Play: Plasma (XPL) is currently a high-yield farm. Investing in it is a bet that it can convert its initial, incentive-driven traction into a real, sustainable ecosystem.
  • Monitor for Organic Growth: Before making a long-term investment, watch to see if Plasma can develop unique applications or attract business-to-business flows that generate genuine activity, rather than just relying on users chasing yield. The success of chains like Tempo (with Stripe) is based on bringing new flows, which is the model to watch for.

Prediction Markets (Polymarket & Kalshi)

  • Prediction markets have been a major theme, with Polymarket (crypto-native, on-chain) and Kalshi (US-regulated, off-chain) as the two leaders.
  • The platforms are in a "fight" for narrative dominance, with Kalshi trying to appeal more to the crypto community, despite its volume being 95% from sports betting.
  • Polymarket is reportedly raising a new funding round at an $8-9 billion valuation, and there are reports of warrants for a future token, though this is unconfirmed.
  • A key insight is that the value of prediction markets extends far beyond betting. They are becoming crucial information sources.
    • Institutions like Goldman Sachs and research firms like Fundstrat now cite Polymarket data for insights on elections, Fed policy, and economic events.
  • Prediction markets are also described as being "closer to social networks than they are to trading," as the virality and media attention generated by certain markets can be more valuable than the betting volume itself.

Takeaways

  • A Socially and Financially Relevant Sector: Prediction markets are proving to be a "killer app" for crypto, providing real-time information that is valued by traditional finance and the media.
  • Polymarket as the Crypto Leader: For investors focused on crypto-native projects, Polymarket is the clear leader. The potential for a future token at a high valuation makes it a project to watch closely. Its ability to accurately predict events like elections has given it significant credibility.
  • Information is the Product: The true value is the "wisdom of the crowd" data they produce. Even non-bettors can derive value from monitoring these markets for real-time sentiment on important global events.

Privacy Coins (Zcash & Monero)

  • There is renewed excitement around privacy coins, with Zcash (ZEC) experiencing a significant price surge (+60% on the day of the podcast).
  • Zcash is an "OG" privacy coin that allows for both private (shielded) and public (transparent) transactions. This dual-mode makes it more palatable to regulators than privacy-by-default coins.
  • Monero (XMR) is mentioned as the most-used privacy coin and is considered highly effective, to the point where an anecdote suggests even FBI agents acknowledge its strength. However, its effectiveness has led to it being delisted from many exchanges due to regulatory pressure.
  • The narrative is that privacy is an important and growing concern, and there may even be use cases for governments themselves to use these coins for discreet payments.

Takeaways

  • The Privacy Narrative is Returning: After being a quiet sector for a while, privacy is re-emerging as an investment theme.
  • Zcash as a Regulator-Friendly Play: For investors interested in the privacy sector but wary of regulatory risk, Zcash (ZEC) presents a potentially safer option than Monero (XMR) because of its optional privacy features. Its recent marketing push and price action suggest renewed market interest.

Other Opportunities

  • Fixed Income (Pendle): Arthur Hayes identified fixed income as the next major "zero to one" opportunity in crypto, believing it to be a much larger potential market than perpetuals. He is an investor in Pendle (PENDLE), a project focused on tokenizing and trading yield. The main challenge is making interest rate trading fun and accessible for the average crypto user.
    • Takeaway: Investors looking for the "next big thing" in DeFi should research the emerging fixed income and yield-trading sector, with Pendle being a leading project.
  • WorldCoin (WLD): Mentioned as an investment by BitMine. The project is framed as a crucial solution for "proof of humanity" in the age of AI, with 17 million verified users.
    • Takeaway: The backing from a major player like BitMine and its positioning as a key piece of infrastructure for the AI era provides a strong bullish narrative for WorldCoin.
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Episode Description
Arthur Hayes & Tom Lee map the new crypto arms race—Hyperliquid vs Aster, Plasma’s stablecoin rails, and ETH’s DAT-fueled supercycle. Welcome to The Chopping Block – where crypto insiders Haseeb Qureshi, Tom Schmidt, Tarun Chitra, and Robert Leshner chop it up about the latest in crypto. Live at Token2049 Singapore, we’re joined by Arthur Hayes (Maelstrom) and Tom Lee (Bitmine) to map two battles shaping the next cycle: the Perp DEX war—Hyperliquid’s moat vs. CZ-linked Aster, zero-fee experiments like Lighter, and whether ~$500M/year token unlocks can stay “bullish”—and the race to own stablecoin rails, from Tether-affiliated Plasma’s zero-fee USDT chain to distribution plays like Tempo and Codex. We dig into DATs, mNAV compression, and Tom’s “ETH supercycle,” plus prediction markets (Polymarket vs. Kalshi) crossing into the mainstream and a surprise Zcash revival. If crypto’s future is being decided in trading venues and in money itself, this is where the battle lines get drawn.  Show highlights🔹 Perp DEX wars — Hyperliquid vs Aster: Binance-linked Aster surges as Hyperliquid’s moat is stress-tested; CEX tie-ups (Bybit–ApeX, Coinbase–Avantis) escalate the fight. 🔹 Arthur Hayes on Hyperliquid: 126x call but sold ahead of ~$500M/yr token unlocks (starting November); “bullish unlocks” depend on sustained dominance + real fees. 🔹 Lighter’s zero-fee perps: Can post-airdrop volume stick, or do profits migrate to HLP/LLP vault strategies as fees compress? 🔹 DATs & ETH “supercycle” — Tom Lee (Bitmine): Communications flywheel, mNAV compression, ~70 ETH DATs with many below NAV; consolidation/unwinds/ETF conversions amid SEC/Nasdaq scrutiny and ZeroG controversy. 🔹 Plasma stablecoin chain (Tether-affiliated): Zero-fee USDT transfers, heavy incentives, Binance Earn distribution—are flows durable vs Ethereum/Tron? 🔹 Prediction markets — Polymarket vs Kalshi: South Park moment; funds cite PMs for shutdown/Fed odds; 2024 election accuracy pushes PMs mainstream. 🔹 Privacy coins & Zcash revival: ZEC rally, Monero 51%-attack mention, and the ongoing listings/compliance tug-of-war. 🔹 Stablecoins to $4T? — Tom Lee: Micropayments + 24/7 rails expand TAM across multiple chains, not just Ethereum. Hosts⁠ Disclosures⁠ ⭐️Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner at Dragonfly ⭐️Tom Schmidt, General Partner at Dragonfly  ⭐️Tarun Chitra, Managing Partner at Robot Ventures   Guest ⭐️ Arthur Hayes, CIO at Maelstrom ⭐️Tom Lee, CIO of Fundstrat Capital & Chairman of Bitmine   Timestamps 00:00 Intro 01:15 Token 2049 Reflections 03:55 Tom Lee's Role in Ethereum 08:04 Challenges & Future of DATs 13:09 Plasma: Berachain for Stablecoins  20:06 Perp Dex Wars & Hyperliquid 24:26 Fee Compression 29:59 Kalshi vs. Polymarket 39:52 Zcash & Privacy Coins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
About Unchained
Unchained

Unchained

By Laura Shin

Crypto assets and blockchain technology are about to transform every trust-based interaction of our lives, from financial services to identity to the Internet of Things. In this podcast, host Laura Shin, an independent journalist covering all things crypto, talks with industry pioneers about how crypto assets and blockchains will change the way we earn, spend and invest our money. Tune in to find out how Web 3.0, the decentralized web, will revolutionize our world. Disclosure: I'm a nocoiner.