The Chopping Block: 2025 Winners & Losers + 2026 Predictions - Ep. 998
The Chopping Block: 2025 Winners & Losers + 2026 Predictions - Ep. 998
121 days agoUnchainedLaura Shin
Podcast1 hr 8 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider accumulating Bitcoin (BTC), as analysts predict its price could reach $150,000 by the end of 2026 following a period of relative underperformance. Ethereum (ETH) presents a renewed opportunity due to its successful pivot to becoming the foundational "stablecoin layer" for the future of finance. For public market exposure to crypto infrastructure, consider stocks like Circle, the pure-play on stablecoins, or Galaxy Digital (GLXY.TO), which has successfully pivoted to AI infrastructure. Look into Zcash (ZEC) as a primary investment for the growing privacy narrative, with its adoption proven by measurable growth in on-chain usage. The Near Protocol (NEAR) is positioned as a key comeback story, with its Intents feature providing unique cross-chain utility that could drive significant value to the token.

Detailed Analysis

Crypto Equities & M&A

  • The podcast hosts identified equity-based companies in the crypto industry as a biggest winner of 2025.
  • This success was attributed to increasing regulatory clarity, a friendly administration, and a flood of institutional interest.
  • 2025 was described as "M&A season," with significant consolidation occurring.
    • Companies mentioned as part of this trend include Bridge, Privy, Deribit, Hidden Road, and Echo.
  • A 2026 prediction was made for at least $15 billion of crypto M&A activity.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Theme: The trend of consolidation and M&A within the crypto industry is expected to continue and accelerate. This suggests that established, well-run crypto companies with clear business models are attractive investment targets, both for acquisition and for growth.
  • Investment Strategy: Investors could look at publicly traded crypto companies or private companies in the growth stage that are likely candidates for acquisition or to be acquirers themselves. The discussion highlights a shift towards valuing traditional business metrics and strategic positioning over pure token speculation.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • 2025 Performance: Bitcoin was named a "biggest flop" of 2025 on a relative basis. Despite only being down 6%, it underperformed assets like gold and equities during a year with strong macroeconomic tailwinds where it was expected to perform well.
  • US Strategic Reserve: The concept of a US strategic Bitcoin reserve was also considered a "biggest loser" or flop. The initiative fizzled out, with the US government reportedly selling seized Bitcoin instead of holding it, contrary to the initial executive order.
  • 2026 Predictions:
    • One host predicted BTC will reach a price of $150,000 by the end of 2026.
    • Another predicted that BTC and precious metals will reach a new all-time high in 2026.

Takeaways

  • Mixed Sentiment: While 2025 performance was disappointing relative to expectations, the sentiment for 2026 is highly bullish, with specific predictions of new all-time highs.
  • Key Driver: The "four-year cycle" tied to the Bitcoin halving was mentioned, suggesting that despite a soft 2025, the market cycle may still be in play, pointing towards a stronger 2026.
  • Actionable Insight: The hosts' predictions suggest a strong belief in Bitcoin's potential for significant price appreciation in 2026. Investors may see the relative underperformance in 2025 as a potential buying opportunity ahead of an anticipated bull run.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • The "Ethereum Pivot": Named a "biggest surprise" of 2025. The sentiment around Ethereum recovered dramatically after a perceived change in direction and leadership at the Ethereum Foundation (EF).
  • New Narrative: The network went from being seen as "cooked" and "under-delivering" to having a renewed sense of optimism and commercial focus.
  • Rebranding: Tom Lee's successful effort to rebrand ETH as the "stablecoin layer" was highlighted as a "best pivot," simplifying its value proposition for a mainstream audience and aligning it with the future of finance.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The internal "pivot" at the Ethereum Foundation has created a strong bullish narrative. The focus on being a foundational layer for stablecoins and DeFi is seen as a major catalyst.
  • Actionable Insight: The renewed focus and positive sentiment shift suggest that Ethereum has addressed key concerns about its direction. Investors who were previously hesitant due to the perceived lack of a clear vision may now see a more compelling investment case for ETH.

Altcoins (General)

  • 2025 Performance: Altcoins were named the "biggest loser" of 2025 for several reasons:
    • Overall performance was very poor, and the hoped-for "alt season" never happened.
    • New coin launches generally failed to perform well or break into the top 100.
    • Regulatory clarity did not materialize as hoped.
    • A new issue emerged where token holders get "shafted" when the company behind the token gets acquired by an equity deal.

Takeaways

  • Bearish Sentiment: The discussion paints a bleak picture for the broad altcoin market in 2025, highlighting underperformance and new structural risks.
  • Risk Factor: The conflict between equity holders and token holders in M&A deals is a significant new risk for investors in tokens of centralized projects. It implies that token value may not be protected or prioritized in a corporate buyout.
  • Actionable Insight: Investors should be extremely selective with altcoins. The discussion suggests a "flight to quality," with capital concentrating in major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum rather than spreading across the speculative altcoin market.

Zcash (ZEC)

  • Comeback Story: Zcash was named the "biggest surprise" of 2025 due to its resurgence.
  • Privacy Narrative: The comeback was driven by a renewed focus on privacy as a compelling use case, moving beyond just speculative memes.
  • Key Metric: The growth in the shielded address pool was cited as concrete evidence of its increasing adoption and utility.
  • Ecosystem Impact: The renewed interest in Zcash is hoped to create "trickle-down privacy economics," benefiting the broader ecosystem of privacy-focused technologies.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: There is strong bullish sentiment around Zcash, driven by its unique focus on privacy and measurable growth in usage.
  • Actionable Insight: Zcash is presented as an asset with a real, fundamental use case that is gaining traction. Investors interested in the privacy sector of crypto may see ZEC as a leading indicator and a primary way to get exposure to this theme.

Circle (IPO / Stock)

  • IPO Success: The Circle IPO was named a "biggest surprise" of 2025.
  • Valuation Surge: The company's stock debuted above all expectations. Skepticism about its initial $4-5 billion valuation quickly evaporated as its market cap soared to $70 billion post-IPO, before settling at a still-strong $20 billion.
  • Investment Thesis: The narrative that took hold was that stablecoins are the future of finance, and Circle was the only pure-play public company to bet on this trend.

Takeaways

  • Bullish on Stablecoins: The success of the Circle IPO is a strong market signal validating the investment thesis for stablecoin infrastructure.
  • Actionable Insight: For investors looking for public market exposure to the core infrastructure of crypto finance, Circle's stock is presented as the primary vehicle. Its performance demonstrates massive institutional and retail appetite for this sector.

Solana (SOL)

  • Mechanism Innovation: A new mechanism on Solana, "Prop AMMs," was named the "best new mechanism" of 2025.
  • How it Works: These are a hybrid of traditional Automated Market Makers (like Uniswap) and Request-for-Quote (RFQ) systems, offering greater capital efficiency and tighter spreads.
  • Market Dominance: This innovation has reportedly "taken over Solana in terms of DEX volumes" and is proving to be highly effective due to Solana's low latency.

Takeaways

  • Bullish on Solana Ecosystem: The development and success of Prop AMMs demonstrate continued innovation on Solana, making its DeFi ecosystem more efficient and competitive.
  • Actionable Insight: This technological advantage could attract more trading volume and users to the Solana network, potentially increasing the value and utility of the SOL token and projects within its ecosystem. It highlights Solana as a hub for high-performance DeFi.

Near Protocol (NEAR)

  • Comeback Story: Near was named the "biggest comeback story" of 2025.
  • Key Catalyst: The protocol experienced a "renaissance" driven by the growth of Intents, a feature that uses multi-party computation (MPC) to allow users to buy any asset on any chain.
  • Use Case: This is particularly useful for buying assets like Zcash (ZEC) that may not be available on major exchanges in all jurisdictions.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: After being "left for dead," Near has re-entered the conversation with a powerful and practical new technology.
  • Actionable Insight: The Intents feature positions Near as a key piece of interoperability infrastructure, solving a real problem for users. This renewed utility and relevance could drive value to the NEAR token.

Investment Themes & Predictions

Prediction Markets

  • Identified as a "biggest winner" of 2025, having gone from a fringe category to "extremely mainstream."
  • Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi were mentioned.
  • A 2026 prediction was made for a major insider trading scandal to emerge from a non-securities or non-sports prediction market.

On-Chain Derivatives

  • Identified as a "biggest winner" of 2025, with Perpetual DEXs like Hyperliquid leading the way.
  • The key trend is capital moving from centralized exchanges to on-chain platforms.
  • Equity Perps Prediction: A host predicted that equity perpetuals will grow to 20% of DeFi perp volumes in 2026.

AI + Crypto

  • AI Agents were named the "biggest flop" of 2025. The initial hype and speculative mania faded as the tools failed to deliver value and became "annoying."
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY.TO) and CoreWeave were highlighted as "best pivots" for successfully transitioning from crypto businesses to highly valuable AI infrastructure companies.
  • 2026 Predictions:
    • An AI-powered hack will cause over $100 million in damages.
    • Between 1% and 5% of all AI capital expenditures (CapEx) will be funded using stablecoins.

Web3 & NFTs

  • The entire "Web3 thesis" was named a "biggest loser" of 2025.
  • The NFT market has seen major "capitulation," and the reputation of Web3 among creators and artists is "so poor" that it may not be recoverable.
  • Even major proponents of the thesis, like Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), are reportedly no longer emphasizing the term publicly.
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Episode Description
Welcome to The Chopping Block — where crypto insiders Haseeb Qureshi, Tom Schmidt, Tarun Chitra, and Robert Leshner chop it up about the latest in crypto. It's a new year, and that means the crew is back with their annual year-end awards and predictions episode. First up: the 2025 winners and losers. From Trump's meme-coin windfall to Gary Gensler's legacy getting torched, from prediction markets going mainstream to Web3 getting its official eulogy — no one is safe. The team debates the biggest surprises (Circle's shocking IPO run, Ethereum's pivot under new leadership, Zcash's unlikely comeback), the best new mechanisms (ICO 2.0, DATs, federal preemption), and the year's best memes (including the Chopping Block's own tariff factory video). Then comes the flops and comebacks: AI agents that overpromised, Berachain's fall from grace, and Tether somehow winning again. Finally, the crew reviews how badly their 2025 predictions aged — spoiler: not great — and lays out fresh calls for 2026 including AI-powered hacks, stable-coin-funded AI capex, and equity perps taking over DeFi. New year, fresh takes, brutal honesty — let's get into it. Show highlights 🔹 Biggest winner debate — Trump's meme-coin empire, prediction markets going mainstream, and M&A consolidation reshaping the industry. 🔹 Gary Gensler's legacy destroyed — Haseeb declares his SEC tenure the biggest loser as every initiative got reversed. 🔹 Web3 pronounced dead — Tarun writes the epitaph on the "ownership economy" thesis as NFT sentiment hits rock bottom. 🔹 Bitcoin as biggest loser? — Robert's controversial pick: BTC underperformed in a year that should have been its best. 🔹 Circle IPO shocks — From skeptics to $70B market cap, the stablecoin thesis briefly took over Wall Street. 🔹 Ethereum pivot surprise — Vitalik's leadership shake-up and new EF direction restored optimism no one expected. 🔹 DATs dominate mechanism talk — Robert calls them highest "absolute value of impact" — amplifying volatility both ways. 🔹 AI agents flopped hard — From mania to annoyance, the speculative thesis collapsed and sentiment turned hostile. 🔹 2025 predictions reviewed — The team confesses their misses (150K BTC, 5x AI agent caps) with Tom winning at 2/3. 🔹 2026 predictions dropped — AI-generated $100M+ hacks, stable-coin-funded AI capex, and equity perps hitting 20% of DeFi volume. Hosts: ⭐️Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner at Dragonfly ⭐️Robert Leshner, CEO & Co-founder of Superstate ⭐️Tarun Chitra, Managing Partner at Robot Ventures ⭐️Tom Schmidt, General Partner at Dragonfly  Timestamps 00:00 Intro 00:26 Crypto Industry Overview 02:39 Biggest Winners of 2025 07:32 Biggest Losers of 2025 13:29 Biggest Surprises of 2025 22:24 Best New Mechanisms of 2025 28:49 Best Memes of 2025 33:24 Best and Worst Pivots of 2025 39:15 Biggest Flops of 2025 41:31 Biggest Flop of 2025 42:58 Bitcoin's Disappointing Year 45:30 Biggest Comeback Stories of 2025 49:12 Favorite Guests of 2025 52:40 Reflecting on 2025 Predictions 56:33 Predictions for 2026 Disclosures Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
About Unchained
Unchained

Unchained

By Laura Shin

Crypto assets and blockchain technology are about to transform every trust-based interaction of our lives, from financial services to identity to the Internet of Things. In this podcast, host Laura Shin, an independent journalist covering all things crypto, talks with industry pioneers about how crypto assets and blockchains will change the way we earn, spend and invest our money. Tune in to find out how Web 3.0, the decentralized web, will revolutionize our world. Disclosure: I'm a nocoiner.