How the Competition Will Play Out in the Great Stablecoin Race - Ep. 936
How the Competition Will Play Out in the Great Stablecoin Race - Ep. 936
189 days agoUnchainedLaura Shin
Podcast1 hr 19 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider Spark Savings for a 4.5% yield on stablecoins like USDC and USDT, which is generated by deploying capital across various institutional-grade opportunities. Watch for potential token launches from Stripe's Tempo chain and Circle's ARK chain, as these are viewed as major catalysts needed to drive adoption for their new payment networks. Note that major crypto players Ripple and Tether are aggressively using their large cash reserves to acquire companies and force adoption of their new stablecoins, RLUSD and USAT. The entire stablecoin sector is receiving major validation as traditional finance giants like Visa, Mastercard, and JPMorgan actively develop their own strategies. Be cautious with high-yield, cyclical products like Ethena's USDe, as sophisticated investors have recently exited positions due to changing risk and yield dynamics.

Detailed Analysis

Ethena (ENA)

  • Ethena is the issuer of two stablecoins: USDe, which is collateralized by crypto assets and generates yield from the "basis trade," and USTB, which is backed by traditional treasuries.
  • The market cap of USDe recently dropped from $15 billion to $10 billion. This was attributed to a "leverage washout" in the crypto market, which reduced the yield from the basis trade, making USDe less attractive for yield farmers.
  • USDe is described as pro-cyclical, meaning its attractiveness and market cap are likely to increase during bull markets when leverage and yields are high, and decrease during downturns.
  • One guest, Sam, noted that the capacity for the basis trade seemed to be tapping out around $6-7 billion, and that his firm, Spark, had exited its position in staked USDe (sUSDe) because the yield was being diverted to other arrangements, disadvantaging direct stakers.
  • In contrast, Rob (a major backer of Ethena) believes the market for the basis trade can grow significantly as crypto becomes more mainstream, which would increase the capacity for USDe.
  • Ethena is expanding its business to include USTB as a compliant payments stablecoin and a "white label" stablecoin-as-a-service product to compete with companies like Paxos and Circle.
  • Both speakers expressed extreme confidence in Ethena's founder, Guy Young, calling him "the single best founder in DeFi."

Takeaways

  • USDe is a higher-risk, higher-yield stablecoin play that is tied to the health and leverage of the overall crypto market. Its yield is not fixed and will fluctuate.
  • Investors looking for yield on USDe should be aware that its returns are cyclical and can decrease significantly during market downturns or deleveraging events.
  • Ethena is diversifying its business beyond the volatile USDe model with the more traditional, treasury-backed USTB and a stablecoin-as-a-service offering. This strategy is seen as a way to "future-proof" the company.
  • Despite the recent market cap drop, sentiment from the speakers (especially its backers) remains very bullish on Ethena's long-term prospects, largely due to confidence in its leadership and diversified strategy.

Spark Protocol / Sky (formerly MakerDAO)

  • Spark is a "sub-DAO" of the Sky ecosystem (formerly MakerDAO), acting like a "commercial bank" that receives wholesale credit from Sky, the "central bank."
  • The protocol has over $9 billion in on-chain stablecoin reserves, which it uses to provide liquidity and bootstrap new stablecoins.
  • Spark was an early, large depositor in Ethena's USDe but has since exited its position entirely, citing changes in the yield structure that made it less attractive.
  • Spark is actively involved in bootstrapping liquidity for new stablecoins, such as its recent deal to support PayPal's PYUSD.
  • The protocol offers several products for institutions and users:
    • Spark Lend: A lending market with over $8 billion in deposits, focused on institutional clients.
    • Spark Savings: A cross-chain savings product offering a 4.5% yield on stablecoins like USDC and USDT, generated from deploying capital across DeFi and CeFi.
    • Spark Liquidity Layer: The back-end system that generates yield by deploying $3 billion into various opportunities, including the CME, Coinbase's Bitcoin borrow product, and others.

Takeaways

  • Spark is a major, institutionally-focused player in the DeFi lending and yield space, acting as a liquidity provider and market maker for the stablecoin ecosystem.
  • Their exit from sUSDe is a notable data point, suggesting that sophisticated players are actively managing their positions based on changing yield dynamics.
  • For users, Spark Savings is presented as a competitive, high-yield savings product for stablecoins, aiming to outperform traditional risk-free rates.
  • Spark's ability to provide liquidity-as-a-service for new stablecoins positions it as a key infrastructure player in the ongoing "stablecoin race."

Tempo (Stripe's Stablecoin Chain)

  • Tempo is a new blockchain closely associated with Stripe, designed with a focus on payments.
  • The key to its success is distribution. Its integration with Stripe's massive merchant and user network is its primary advantage.
  • There is ambiguity in its strategy. To corporate clients, it's pitched as part of a consolidated offering with Stripe. To the crypto community, it's pitched as an open, permissionless chain.
  • A major risk is competitive friction. Other payment companies like PayPal, Checkout.com, and even partners like Visa or Shopify will likely not want to build on or send volume to a chain that benefits their competitor, Stripe.
  • These competitors may support Tempo minimally to ensure compatibility but will likely incentivize their users to go to other chains.
  • It is speculated that for Tempo to succeed and decentralize, it will almost certainly need to launch its own token.

Takeaways

  • Tempo's success is heavily dependent on how deeply it is integrated with Stripe and how effectively it can leverage that distribution.
  • Investors should watch for how other major payment players react. If they embrace Tempo, it's a bullish sign. If they build on competing chains (like Solana, Ethereum L2s, etc.), it could limit Tempo's growth to just the Stripe ecosystem.
  • The potential launch of a Tempo token would be a significant catalyst, as it could be used to subsidize transactions and bootstrap liquidity on the network.

Tether (USDT) & USAT

  • USAT is a new US-dollar stablecoin being launched by Tether, the issuer of USDT.
  • Tether's strategy is to drive demand by acquiring its own distribution channels. This includes its investment in the social media platform Rumble (which has 51 million users).
  • This strategy is compared to Ripple's, where the company uses its massive war chest ($15 billion in expected net profit this year) to buy companies and force adoption of its stablecoin.
  • While USDT has immense brand recognition globally (e.g., in Argentina, "Tether" is synonymous with "stablecoin"), it lacks that dominance in the US and EU, where Circle (USDC) is stronger.
  • The hiring of Bo Hines, a politically well-connected figure, is seen as a strategic move to navigate the US political landscape and strike deals.

Takeaways

  • Don't bet against Tether. They have a massive war chest and a clear strategy to buy their way into new markets and use cases.
  • The launch of USAT is Tether's direct attempt to capture the US market, its biggest blind spot. Success is not guaranteed, as it faces entrenched competition from Circle.
  • Investors should monitor Tether's acquisition activity. Each company they buy or partner with (like Rumble) is a potential new distribution channel for USAT.

Ripple (XRP) & RLUSD

  • Ripple is pivoting to become a stablecoin company, pushing its new stablecoin RLUSD.
  • This is seen as a move away from the original, unsuccessful use case for XRP as a bank settlement asset. The discussion questions if this cannibalizes XRP, but concludes XRP today is mostly a "war chest" and a speculative asset tied to the Ripple story.
  • Like Tether, Ripple is using its massive balance sheet to acquire key infrastructure and distribution.
    • They bought Hidden Road (a major crypto prime broker).
    • They bought Rail (a stablecoin orchestration platform).
  • By owning these platforms, Ripple can push RLUSD as the default stablecoin, potentially putting billions of dollars of it to work as collateral.
  • The speakers agree this is a legitimate strategy and would not bet against them, given their financial resources and the quality of the businesses they are acquiring.

Takeaways

  • Ripple is aggressively entering the stablecoin race by buying its way to relevance. This is a significant strategic pivot for the company.
  • The growth of RLUSD is a key metric to watch. Its success will depend on how well Ripple integrates its acquisitions and forces adoption.
  • This strategy gives Ripple a new, more viable business model beyond the original narrative for XRP. It represents a case of a project using its token-generated wealth to build a long-term, sustainable business.

Plasma (XPL)

  • Plasma is a stablecoin-focused chain that gained attention for offering zero-fee transfers on USDT.
  • It is described as having a more retail-focused approach, using airdrops and token emissions (XPL) to attract users and Total Value Locked (TVL).
  • This strategy is noted as being unsustainable in the long run. The key challenge for Plasma is to convert the initial hype and airdrop farmers into a genuine, long-term user base.
  • They have announced plans to launch a neobank called Plasma One, but the speakers are skeptical, noting it's much harder for a new chain to build a successful neobank than for an existing neobank (like Revolut) to launch a chain.

Takeaways

  • Plasma is a high-risk, high-reward play. Its initial success was driven by marketing and token incentives, not organic adoption.
  • Investors should be cautious, as the value of its XPL token is vulnerable once the initial emissions and farming rewards dry up.
  • The long-term viability of Plasma depends entirely on its ability to achieve real distribution and user adoption beyond the initial speculative phase. Watch for metrics on genuine user activity, not just TVL.

ARK (Circle's Stablecoin Chain)

  • ARK is a new blockchain launched by Circle, the issuer of USDC.
  • It is described as having a B2B and institutional focus, aiming to be a "base layer for financial services."
  • Circle has onboarded over 100 partners to its testnet, including heavyweights like BlackRock, Visa, and HSBC.
  • Despite the big-name partners, a key challenge is that Circle does not own its primary distribution channel (which is Coinbase). Bootstrapping a new chain without a captive user base is very difficult.
  • The speakers point to the low adoption of Circle's previous initiative, CPN (Circle Payments Network), as evidence of how hard it is to overcome the network effects of established chains like Ethereum.
  • It is speculated that ARK will be forced to launch a token to compete with other stablecoin chains like Tempo, as a token is needed to subsidize activity and incentivize adoption.

takeaways

  • ARK is Circle's attempt to build its own ecosystem and capture more value, rather than just having its USDC stablecoin live on other companies' chains (like Ethereum, Solana, and Base).
  • The strategy is sound, but execution is challenging. The main hurdle is overcoming the powerful network effects of existing blockchains.
  • The list of institutional partners is impressive and signals serious intent, but it doesn't guarantee transaction volume.
  • A potential ARK token launch would be a major event for the ecosystem and is seen as a near-necessity for it to compete effectively.

Traditional Finance (TradFi) & Stablecoins

  • The most significant trend highlighted is that every major financial institution is now actively working on a stablecoin strategy.
  • Examples mentioned:
    • JPMorgan is experimenting with "deposit tokens."
    • Mastercard is reportedly acquiring crypto infrastructure firm ZeroHash for up to $2 billion.
    • Western Union has filed a trademark for a WUSD stablecoin.
    • Visa is expanding its use of stablecoins across multiple blockchains.
    • MoneyGram is launching a new app that uses USDC on the back end.
  • This massive influx of interest from TradFi is seen as the ultimate validation for the stablecoin market. One speaker noted that at a recent Fed conference and the Money 20/20 fintech conference, stablecoins were the main topic of conversation.
  • The public markets are rewarding this behavior, as seen when Western Union's stock traded up on its stablecoin news.

Takeaways

  • The "are stablecoins a real thing?" debate is over. The largest financial players in the world are now entering the market, signaling a period of massive growth and adoption.
  • This is described as "what winning looks like" for crypto. TradFi firms are being forced to adapt to the efficiency and openness of stablecoins and on-chain finance.
  • Investors should view this trend as a broad, sector-wide bullish signal. The entrance of TradFi will bring new capital, users, and legitimacy to the entire stablecoin ecosystem.
  • Expect a wave of new products, partnerships, and M&A activity as these giants compete for a piece of a market forecasted to be $4 trillion by 2030.
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Episode Description
In this episode of Unchained, Laura is joined by Rob Hadick, General Partner at Dragonfly, and Sam MacPherson, Co-founder and CEO of Phoenix Labs, to break down the fast-moving world of stablecoins and stablechains. They discuss Ethena’s USDe $5 billion drop, the rise of “stablecoin-as-a-service” models, the emergence of payment-focused blockchains like Tempo and Codex, and the return of TradFi heavyweights like Visa, Mastercard, and Western Union to the digital dollar race. From liquidity challenges to regulatory shakeups and tokenized deposits, the conversation explores what it really takes to win the stablecoin wars, and, importantly, whether any of these players can even make a scratch to king Tether. Thank you to our sponsors! Binance Guests: Rob Hadick, General Partner at Dragonfly Sam MacPherson, Co-founder and CEO of Phoenix Labs Links: Previous coverage on Unchained: Stablecoins Are Popping Up Everywhere. What’s the End Game? Why Every Chain Suddenly Wants Its OWN Stablecoin - The Chopping Block Timestamps: 🎬 0:00 Intro and ads: Binance 📉 1:09 Why Ethena’s USDe plunged from $15B to $10B 🔮 5:34 Rob’s view on the future of Ethena 💸 7:06 Why Spark exited Ethena despite being an early believer ⚔️ 11:32 Protocol-native stablecoins—and why Rob and Sam disagree about the trend 💡 21:03 What it really takes to win the stablecoin wars + what makes Tempo's strategy “interesting” 💳 32:11 Tether’s USAT launch: can it succeed? 🏦 36:27 How Tether and Ripple are using the same acquisition playbook 🔥 39:40 Plasma’s emissions strategy and whether it’s sustainable 🏛️ 44:10 Inside Circle’s Arc testnet and its 100+ institutional partners ⛓️ 51:08 Codex and the debate: should stablechains be L1s or L2s? 💵 56:42 How Spark aims to stand out in the new wave of stablecoin competition 🏢 1:00:04 Why TradFi players are entering the space with so much strength 🚀 1:06:04 Why Rob remains so bullish on the future of stablecoins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
About Unchained
Unchained

Unchained

By Laura Shin

Crypto assets and blockchain technology are about to transform every trust-based interaction of our lives, from financial services to identity to the Internet of Things. In this podcast, host Laura Shin, an independent journalist covering all things crypto, talks with industry pioneers about how crypto assets and blockchains will change the way we earn, spend and invest our money. Tune in to find out how Web 3.0, the decentralized web, will revolutionize our world. Disclosure: I'm a nocoiner.