E252: Vast Data $30B valuation, +229%; Kalshi $22B valuation, +2x; Mastercard buys BVNK; Canva signals 2027 IPO; + more
E252: Vast Data $30B valuation, +229%; Kalshi $22B valuation, +2x; Mastercard buys BVNK; Canva signals 2027 IPO; + more
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Investors should prioritize exposure to AMD as it secures a massive multi-year partnership with OpenAI, potentially involving a 10% equity stake in exchange for AI chips. Monitor the secondary market for Canva ahead of its projected 2027 IPO, as the company maintains a strong $47 billion valuation backed by eight years of positive free cash flow. Look for opportunities in "NeoCloud" providers like CoreWeave and Lambda, which are seeing explosive demand for AI infrastructure that traditional cloud giants cannot currently meet. Consider the industrial robotics sector, specifically Gecko Robotics, as they secure high-value government contracts like their $54 million U.S. Navy deal for digital twin technology. Watch for a potential shift in the payments landscape following Mastercard’s $1.8 billion acquisition of BVNK, signaling a major institutional move into stablecoin and tokenized deposit infrastructure.

Detailed Analysis

Vast Data

Vast Data is an AI data storage and infrastructure software company that recently raised $1 billion in a Series F round at a $30 billion valuation. • This represents a significant 3.3x valuation increase from its $9.1 billion valuation in 2023. • The company’s Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) is estimated to be between $600 million and $2 billion, bolstered by a massive $1.17 billion deal with CoreWeave. • Notable customers include X (formerly Twitter), CoreWeave, and Lambda.

Takeaways

High Growth Momentum: The rapid valuation jump suggests strong investor confidence in AI infrastructure providers. • Liquidity for Early Backers: More than half of the $1 billion raised went toward a secondary tender offer, allowing employees and early investors to cash out. • Sector Strength: Vast Data is a primary beneficiary of the "AI arms race," specifically in the demand for high-speed data storage required for large-scale AI models.


Kalshi

• The prediction markets exchange raised over $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, doubling its value since December. • Trading volume reached $10 billion in February (a 12x increase over six months), with sports betting becoming the dominant activity. • Backed by heavyweights including Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, ARK Invest, and KOTU.

Takeaways

Regulatory Risk: Despite growth, the company faces legal challenges; Arizona recently filed criminal charges alleging illegal gambling operations. • Institutional Adoption: Wall Street participation is increasing, with Susquehanna and Jump acting as market makers. • Mainstream Pivot: The shift from political prediction markets to sports betting is driving massive volume, though it increases the complexity of its regulatory landscape.


Canva

• The graphic design SaaS giant is planning an IPO in 2027 (signaled by current secondary market activity). • It currently holds a $47 billion secondary market valuation, trading at roughly 11.8x its $4 billion annualized revenue. • The company has achieved eight consecutive years of positive free cash flow.

Takeaways

Strong Fundamentals: Unlike many "growth-at-all-costs" startups, Canva’s consistent profitability and cash flow make it a highly anticipated IPO candidate. • AI Integration: With 10 million users on its "Magic" AI products, Canva is successfully defending its territory against Adobe. • Market Dominance: Survey data shows 77% of Adobe Creative Cloud users also use Canva, highlighting its "sticky" nature in the enterprise and creator space.


OpenAI

• OpenAI is shifting strategy toward a "Desktop Super App" by merging ChatGPT, Codecs, and its browser to simplify the user experience. • The company is projecting a massive $665 billion in cloud server spending through 2030. • IPO Watch: The transcript mentions a possible IPO as soon as late 2026 or 2027.

Takeaways

Strategic Shift: Moving away from building its own data centers to renting capacity from Microsoft, Oracle, and Amazon. • AMD Partnership: OpenAI has a multi-year agreement with AMD for chips in exchange for up to 10% of AMD common stock, a major win for AMD in its competition with NVIDIA. • Product Consolidation: The move to a "super app" is a direct response to competition from Anthropic (Claude).


Unitree Robotics

• The Chinese humanoid robotics company has filed for an IPO in Shanghai, seeking to raise $610 million. • Reported $248 million in revenue with profits more than doubling year-over-year. • Humanoid robots now account for over 51% of their revenue.

Takeaways

Scaling and Price Compression: The average price of their humanoid robots fell 36% to $24,300, signaling that the technology is becoming more affordable and ready for mass deployment. • Market Leadership: Unitree currently ranks #1 in global humanoid robot shipments.


Investment Themes & Sector Insights

NeoCloud Providers (CoreWeave, Lambda, Together AI)

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang described investment risk in these firms as "extremely low" due to the massive pipeline of businesses needing AI compute. • Insight: Traditional cloud providers (AWS/Google) are struggling to meet demand, creating a massive opportunity for specialized "NeoCloud" players.

AI Inference (FAL)

FAL is raising funds at an $8 billion valuation, doubling its value in just three months. • Insight: The market is shifting focus from "training" models to "inference" (running the models), as evidenced by FAL's revenue jumping from $200M to $400M in a matter of months.

Stablecoin Infrastructure (BVNK)

Mastercard acquired BVNK for up to $1.8 billion. • Insight: This is a major signal that traditional finance (TradFi) is moving aggressively into stablecoin and tokenized deposit infrastructure for mainstream payments.

Industrial Robotics (Gecko Robotics)

• Signed a $54 million deal with the U.S. Navy to build "digital twins" of ships. • Insight: With 40% of the Navy fleet currently unavailable due to maintenance, robotics companies that can reduce downtime are seeing massive government contract wins.

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Episode Description
Send us Fan Mail Invest in pre-IPO stocks with AG Dillon & Co. Contact aaron.dillon@agdillon.com to learn more. Financial advisors only. www.agdillon.com 00:00 - Intro 00:49 - Vast Data rockets to $30B after a $1B raise and a +229.7% valuation jump 01:51 - Kalshi hits $22B as revenue reaches $1.5B and monthly volume tops $10B 02:53 - Fal races to $8B with revenue at $400M and growth hitting +100% in months 03:43 - Yotta targets $4B valuation with a $1B capital plan and 30,000+ next-gen GPUs on deck 04:41 - Mastercard acquires BVNK for $1.8B 05:37 - Canva heads toward IPO territory at $47B with $4B revenue and 265M users 06:48 - Unitree files to raise $610M after hitting $248M revenue and #1 humanoid shipments 07:33 - Nvidia’s Huang likes their Lambda, Together AI, and Nscale investments 08:38 - Gecko Robotics lands a $54M Navy award with a $71M ceiling and 18 ships to start 09:31 - Mistral pushes deeper into enterprise with ‘Mistral Forge’ launch 10:33 - OpenAI is folding 3 products into 1 superapp as IPO prep accelerates 11:37 - OpenAI is reorganizing for a $665B compute buildout with a 6GW AMD chip deal 12:48 - Atoms brings Travis Kalanick back with $100M from Uber 13:30 - xAI offers forward deployed engineers as it chases enterprise growth with Shift4 win
About This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks
This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks

This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks

By AG Dillon & Co

This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks reports on pre-IPO stock research, trends, trading, and venture capital funds. Visit www.agdillon.com for more.