E246: SpaceX acquires xAI, now $1.473T in secondary market; Waymo at $116B, +14% vs last round; ElevenLabs at $11B, $330M ARR; + more
E246: SpaceX acquires xAI, now $1.473T in secondary market; Waymo at $116B, +14% vs last round; ElevenLabs at $11B, $330M ARR; + more
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider investing in Alphabet (GOOGL) as a proxy for its autonomous driving subsidiary Waymo, which just saw its valuation surge 2.4x to $110 billion and is rapidly growing revenue. Prepare for the potential SpaceX IPO later this year, which could be the largest to date and may see fast inclusion into the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ). Key AI infrastructure company Cerebras validated its technology with a $10 billion contract from OpenAI, making it a top company to watch for a future public offering. Dominant AI model providers like OpenAI and Anthropic continue to secure massive valuations and major enterprise partnerships, signaling significant future IPO potential. The primary strategy is to gain exposure to the private AI boom, either through future IPOs or indirectly via public parent companies and key suppliers.

Detailed Analysis

SpaceX

  • SpaceX has acquired xAI in an all-stock deal, creating a combined company valued at $1.25 trillion at the time of the merger.
    • The deal was structured as a share exchange, converting each xAI share into 0.1433 shares of SpaceX.
    • SpaceX's secondary market valuation has since surged to $1.473 trillion, a 79% increase from the merger valuation.
  • The company is reportedly planning an IPO for later this year, which could be the largest to date, potentially raising $50 billion.
  • SpaceX is actively lobbying major index providers like NASDAQ to change rules for faster inclusion into key indices, such as the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ), post-IPO. This would provide earlier access to large pools of investment capital.
  • The company filed with the FCC to launch up to 1 million solar-powered satellites intended to function as in-space AI data centers, signaling a massive strategic push into "AI in-space".

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The acquisition of xAI, the massive surge in secondary market valuation, and the ambitious IPO plans signal strong confidence from investors and the company itself.
  • Investment Opportunity: While currently private, the upcoming IPO presents a major potential investment opportunity. The move to fast-track index inclusion could create significant buying pressure and liquidity for the stock shortly after it lists.
  • Strategic Vision: The plan for a massive satellite network for AI compute demonstrates a long-term vision that combines its core space business with the booming AI industry, creating a potentially powerful competitive advantage.
  • Risk Factor: The FCC filing for 1 million satellites may be a negotiating tactic. Regulatory hurdles and concerns about space debris could slow down or limit this ambitious plan.

OpenAI

  • The company is in the process of raising $100 billion in a new funding round at a staggering $830 billion post-money valuation.
  • OpenAI is aggressively expanding into the enterprise market with its new "Frontier" platform, designed to help companies build and manage AI agents.
    • Enterprise revenue already accounts for 40% of the business and is projected to reach 50% by the end of the year.
    • Initial launch partners for Frontier include major companies like Uber, State Farm, and Intuit.
  • Launched a standalone Codex application for Mac, making its AI coding assistant more accessible to developers.

Takeaways

  • Extremely Bullish Sentiment: The massive valuation and funding round underscore OpenAI's dominant position in the AI industry and immense investor demand.
  • Enterprise Focus: The launch of Frontier and the rapid growth of enterprise revenue show a clear strategy to monetize its technology with large corporate clients, which is a highly lucrative and stable revenue stream.
  • Pre-IPO Juggernaut: Like SpaceX, OpenAI is a top-tier private company. Any opportunity to invest, whether through secondary markets or a future IPO, is significant. Its valuation suggests it would also qualify for fast-track index inclusion if it were to go public.

Anthropic

  • The AI company is preparing a tender offer for employees at a valuation of at least $350 billion and is discussing a new funding round of over $20 billion at the same valuation.
  • Its secondary market valuation is currently $370 billion, a 5.9% premium over its latest primary funding valuation.
  • Anthropic is innovating rapidly, releasing its updated Opus 4.6 model with new "agent teams" capabilities and integrating its AI, Claude, directly into Microsoft PowerPoint.
  • The company is co-developing autonomous AI agents with Goldman Sachs for complex financial tasks like trading and client vetting, demonstrating deep enterprise adoption.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: High valuations, significant new funding, and strong secondary market interest indicate powerful momentum.
  • Enterprise Validation: The deep partnership with a financial giant like Goldman Sachs is a major vote of confidence in Anthropic's technology for critical, high-value business functions.
  • Competitive Landscape: Anthropic is solidifying its position as a top competitor to OpenAI, with strong technological advancements and a clear path to enterprise monetization.

Waymo

  • The autonomous driving company, a subsidiary of Alphabet (GOOGL), is finalizing a $16 billion funding round that values it at $110 billion.
  • This new valuation represents a 2.4x increase from its $45 billion valuation in 2024.
  • The company has strong operational metrics, reporting over 20 million trips completed and more than $350 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR).

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The massive step-up in valuation and the large funding round from top-tier investors signal that the market believes autonomous driving is nearing a major inflection point.
  • Path to Profitability: Growing revenue and trip volume show that Waymo is successfully scaling its robotaxi service, moving from a research project to a real business.
  • Proxy Investment: Since Waymo is private, investors can get exposure to its success through its parent company, Alphabet. Waymo's increasing value could be a significant future contributor to Alphabet's overall valuation.

Cerebras

  • This AI semiconductor company raised $1 billion in a new round, valuing it at $23 billion. This is a nearly 2.8x increase from its $8.1 billion valuation in September.
  • The company has a multi-year agreement with OpenAI described as being worth $10 billion.
  • It counts major tech companies like Meta, IBM, and chipmaker AMD (who is also an investor) among its customers and backers.

Takeaways

  • Very Bullish Sentiment: The dramatic valuation jump highlights the intense demand for specialized AI hardware and compute capacity.
  • Key AI Enabler: Cerebras is a critical player in the AI supply chain, competing with giants like NVIDIA. The $10 billion OpenAI contract is a massive validation of its technology.
  • Strategic Importance: The investment from AMD and partnerships with Meta and IBM place Cerebras at the center of the AI ecosystem, making it a company to watch closely for a potential future IPO.

Other Pre-IPO Companies of Note

  • ElevenLabs: An AI voice generator that raised $500 million at an $11 billion valuation. It has $330 million in ARR and aims to double it this year, showing explosive growth in the AI media generation space.
  • Clay: An AI sales platform that saw its valuation jump 60% to $5 billion in just a few months, driven by tripling its ARR to $100 million in one year. This highlights the high demand for AI tools that improve business efficiency.
  • Fundamental: An AI platform for enterprise data that emerged from stealth with $225 million in funding at a $2 billion valuation. It targets a specific niche (structured data) where other models may struggle, indicating a large, untapped market.
  • Accrual: An AI accounting startup backed by General Catalyst that is partnering with established firms like H&R Block. It represents the "applied AI" theme, where AI is used to disrupt traditional, slower-moving industries.
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Episode Description
Send us a text Invest in pre-IPO stocks with AG Dillon & Co. Contact aaron.dillon@agdillon.com to learn more. Financial advisors only. www.agdillon.com 00:00 - Intro 00:07 - SpaceX Acquires xAI at a $1.25T Combined Valuation 01:39 - SpaceX Seeks Early Index Inclusion Once Public 02:50 - SpaceX Files for 1M AI Data-Center Satellites 03:37 - Anthropic Lines Up a $350B Employee Tender 04:16 - Anthropic Opus 4.6 Ships With 1,000,000 Tokens and “Agent Teams” for Parallel Work 04:53 - Goldman Uses Anthropic’s Claude for AI Agents 05:49 - Waymo Nears a $16B Round at $110B as Alphabet Writes Most of the Check 06:34 - Cerebras Jumps to $23B Post-Money on a $1B Raise and a 750MW OpenAI Compute Deal 07:15 - ElevenLabs Raises $500M at $11B and Targets a 2x ARR Step-Up 07:59 - Clay’s New Employee Tender - $5B Tender After ARR Hits $100M 08:52 - Lotus Health Raises $35M to Build a Free AI Primary-Care Practice Across All 50 States 09:46 - Goodfire Raises $150M at $1.25B to Make Black-Box Models Debuggable 10:42 - Accrual Raises $75M to Deliver AI to Slower-Adopting Industries/Sectors 11:28 - Fundamental Emerges With $255M and a $1.2B Valuation to Own Structured Data AI 12:33 - OpenAI Launches Standalone Coding App  13:29 - OpenAI Frontier Pitches the Enterprise Agent Control Plane as B2B Revenue Targets 50% of Total Rev
About This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks
This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks

This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks

By AG Dillon & Co

This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks reports on pre-IPO stock research, trends, trading, and venture capital funds. Visit www.agdillon.com for more.