E214: SpaceX soars to $400B valuation; Revolut banks on $65B valuation boost; Groq chips in at $6B valuation; Mistral AI storms to $1B+ raise; Harmonic AI tunes up to $875M valuation; xAI unleashes Grok 4 at PhD-level smarts; X's Yaccarino exits after X m
E214: SpaceX soars to $400B valuation; Revolut banks on $65B valuation boost; Groq chips in at $6B valuation; Mistral AI storms to $1B+ raise; Harmonic AI tunes up to $875M valuation; xAI unleashes Grok 4 at PhD-level smarts; X's Yaccarino exits after X m
Podcast14 min 22 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Accredited investors can gain pre-IPO exposure to high-growth tech like xAI and Groq through specialized funds closing in September 2025. Consider Revolut in the secondary market, as its current $43 billion valuation presents a potential opportunity ahead of a planned funding round targeting $65 billion. AI hardware company Groq shows strong momentum with its valuation doubling to $6 billion as it challenges NVIDIA in the AI inference market. SpaceX continues to demonstrate strong performance, with a new secondary sale valuing the company at $400 billion, or $212 per share, driven by its Starlink division. Finally, exercise caution with the upcoming Shein IPO, as potential U.S. tariffs pose a significant risk that could negatively impact its $50 billion target valuation.

Detailed Analysis

AG Dillon & Co. Pre-IPO Funds

  • The firm is offering access to several high-profile private companies through six single-stock funds closing in September 2025.
  • The funds provide exposure to Anduril, xAI, Groq, Lambda Labs, Together AI, and a space economy company.
  • This allows investors to create custom portfolios of pre-IPO stocks, choosing their own company exposures and allocations.
  • The funds are available through platforms like Charles Schwab and Fidelity, with a $2,500 minimum investment, but are noted as being for financial advisors only.

Takeaways

  • This represents a direct way for accredited investors (working with a financial advisor) to gain exposure to late-stage private technology companies that are otherwise difficult to invest in.
  • The ability to build a "bespoke" portfolio allows investors to act on their specific beliefs about which of these companies will succeed, rather than buying a generic tech fund.

SpaceX

  • The company is in talks for a secondary share sale that would value it at $400 billion.
  • This is a 14.3% increase from its $350 billion valuation in December 2023.
  • The potential sale would price shares at $212 per share.
  • This valuation growth is driven by the success of its Starlink satellite internet division, which now accounts for over 50% of annual revenue, and progress on its Starship rocket.
  • At this valuation, SpaceX would become the most valuable private company in the world.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The significant and rapid increase in valuation points to strong investor confidence and successful execution in its key business lines.
  • Starlink is the Key Driver: The commentary highlights that Starlink is no longer a side project but the primary engine of SpaceX's value. Its continued growth is critical for the investment thesis.
  • The secondary sale provides a concrete price point ($212/share) and valuation mark ($400B), confirming the company's strong performance in the private markets.

Revolut

  • The UK-based online bank is looking to raise $1 billion in new funding.
  • This new funding round would target a $65 billion valuation, a 44% jump from its $45 billion valuation in 2024.
  • The company has strong growth metrics, with over 60 million users and a 72% surge in revenue, reaching $1 billion in profit.
  • A key strategic focus is expanding into the U.S. market in 2025 and 2026.
  • Its current secondary market valuation is $43 billion, which is significantly lower than the proposed $65 billion funding round valuation.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: Revolut is demonstrating impressive growth in both its user base and, crucially, its profitability.
  • Valuation Discrepancy: The gap between the current secondary market price ($43B) and the target primary valuation ($65B) suggests an opportunity. If the new funding round is successful, it could cause the secondary market price to "pop" and re-rate higher.
  • U.S. expansion is a key catalyst to watch. Success in this large market could justify the higher valuation.

Groq

  • The AI semiconductor company is raising $300 to $500 million at a $6 billion valuation, more than double its $2.8 billion valuation from 2023.
  • Revenue is projected to jump 456% this year to $500 million.
  • Groq's competitive advantage is its focus on chips for AI inference (running models), which it claims are cheaper, faster, and more efficient than NVIDIA's solutions for that specific task.
  • The company is backed by major investors like BlackRock, Cisco, and Samsung.
  • Its secondary market valuation is $5 billion, up a strong 77% since August 2024.

Takeaways

  • Very Bullish Sentiment: The combination of explosive revenue growth, a doubling of valuation, and strong secondary market performance indicates extremely high demand and investor confidence.
  • Niche Competitor to NVIDIA: Groq is not trying to beat NVIDIA at everything. It is carving out a potentially lucrative niche in the AI hardware market (inference), which could be a very successful strategy.
  • This is an investment in a key part of the AI supply chain, offering a different way to play the AI boom beyond the big-name model makers.

Mistral AI

  • The European AI model company is raising up to $1 billion in a new funding round.
  • Its last valuation was $6.78 billion.
  • The company is heavily investing in infrastructure, planning to spend billions on computing power, including 18,000 of NVIDIA's top-tier Grace Blackwell chips.
  • It has strong backing from investors like Microsoft and Andreessen Horowitz, as well as strategic partners like NVIDIA and sovereign wealth funds from the UAE and France.

Takeaways

  • European AI Champion: Mistral is positioning itself as the leading AI player in Europe, with significant government and corporate support. This is a "sovereign AI" play.
  • Investing for Scale: The massive planned investment in computing power shows it is serious about competing at the highest level with US giants like OpenAI and Google.
  • The powerful backing from top VCs and tech giants like Microsoft and NVIDIA gives it significant credibility and resources.

xAI

  • Elon Musk's AI company has launched its most advanced models yet, Grok-4 and Grok-4 Heavy.
  • The models are showing top-tier performance on difficult industry benchmarks, outperforming competitors in some cases.
  • The company's strategy is based on the idea that more computing power (GPUs) leads to smarter AI. It plans to expand from 200,000 GPUs to 1 million GPUs.
  • The company is deeply integrated with the social media platform X, which serves as a unique data and distribution pipeline.
  • Its secondary market valuation is $120 billion, showing a steady increase.

Takeaways

  • Bullish on "More Compute": The success of Grok-4 seems to validate Musk's capital-intensive strategy. Investors are betting that having the most computing power will lead to the best AI models.
  • High Ambition, High Cost: The plan to acquire 1 million GPUs could cost an estimated $40 billion in additional capital, representing a significant future fundraising need.
  • The integration with X is a key differentiator that no other AI lab has, providing a potential advantage in real-time data and user interaction.

Shein

  • The online fast-fashion giant has confidentially filed for an IPO in Hong Kong.
  • This is the company's third attempt to go public after facing major regulatory and political challenges in the US and UK.
  • The rumored IPO valuation is $50 billion.
  • Major Risk Factor: A new U.S. tariff law targeting small, direct-to-consumer shipments (the "de minimis" rule) was specifically mentioned as a threat that could "dramatically impact" Shein's revenue and put downward pressure on its IPO valuation.

Takeaways

  • High-Risk / Bearish Sentiment: The investment opportunity is clouded by significant geopolitical and regulatory risks. These are powerful external forces that the company cannot easily control.
  • Watch the Tariffs: The U.S. tariff issue is a critical, specific risk for potential investors. Any negative developments on this front could seriously harm the company's business model, which relies on shipping inexpensive goods directly to U.S. consumers.
  • The $50 billion valuation may be difficult to achieve given these headwinds.

Epic Games

  • The creator of Fortnite and the Unreal Engine has settled its antitrust lawsuit with Samsung.
  • The settlement is a positive step in its broader legal and business campaign against what it calls app store monopolies run by Apple and Google.
  • Concerning Signal: The company's secondary market valuation is $16.1 billion, which is down a steep 28.6% from its valuation in February 2024.

Takeaways

  • Mixed / Cautious Sentiment: While the Samsung settlement is a small win, the war against the much larger players, Apple and Google, continues.
  • Valuation Decline is a Red Flag: The sharp drop in its private market valuation is a significant concern. It suggests that investors are worried about the cost and distraction of the lawsuits, competitive pressures, or a slowdown in growth.
  • An investment in Epic is a bet on its ability to win its fight for more open app stores and continue growing its core gaming and software engine businesses, but the recent market sentiment is negative.
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Episode Description
Send us a text 00:00 - Intro 00:55 - SpaceX Soars to $400B Valuation 01:46 - Revolut Banks on $65B Valuation Boost 02:37 - Groq Chips In at $6B Valuation 03:42 - Mistral AI Storms to $1B+ Raise 04:41 - Harmonic AI Tunes Up to $875M Valuation 05:36 - xAI Unleashes Grok 4 at PhD-Level Smarts 07:32 - X's Yaccarino Exits After X Merger 08:19 - Perplexity AI Launces Browser 09:37 - OpenAI Browser?, Competes With Chrome 10:48 - Shein Threads $50B IPO Hurdles 11:51 - Epic Games Levels Up Antitrust Victory 12:58 - Hugging Face Robots Out $5.3B Valuation
About This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks
This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks

This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks

By AG Dillon & Co

This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks reports on pre-IPO stock research, trends, trading, and venture capital funds. Visit www.agdillon.com for more.