20VC: The Future of Datacentres: What You Need to Know | Why Everyone Gets GPU Depreciation and AI's Energy Costs Wrong | Who Really Makes Money From AI & Why Most Moats Don't Exist with Chase Lochmiller
20VC: The Future of Datacentres: What You Need to Know | Why Everyone Gets GPU Depreciation and AI's Energy Costs Wrong | Who Really Makes Money From AI & Why Most Moats Don't Exist with Chase Lochmiller
Podcast1 hr 1 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • The strongest actionable theme is AI infrastructure, especially companies with secured power, permits, and utility connections; prioritize projects already progressing over announced capacity.
  • Monitor NVIDIA (NVDA) for sustained GPU demand and utilization, but the discussion provides no price target or direct buy recommendation.
  • Watch managed AI inference and GPU-hosting providers for growth beyond hardware rentals; the transcript names no clear winning public company or specific trade.
Detailed Analysis

Crusoe Energy (Private)

Context

  • Crusoe provides data centers, GPU compute, and managed AI services. The host said the company raised $3.9 billion in a Series F at a $30.9 billion valuation.
  • The founder said Crusoe began by using Bitcoin mining to monetize low-cost, otherwise wasted energy while building toward an AI cloud platform. The launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 led the company to shift more resources toward AI infrastructure.
  • Crusoe aims to earn revenue at several points in the AI infrastructure chain: selling data-center capacity, GPU compute, and AI tokens or inference services.
  • The founder said managed compute is currently especially high-margin because of scarce supply. Longer-term GPU rental contracts are often take-or-pay—customers pay for reserved capacity whether or not they use it. Crusoe also offers shorter-term and higher-margin services, including managed inference and fine-tuning.
  • The founder said Crusoe depreciates chips over six years and believes services that abstract away the hardware can help extend the useful earning life of older chips.
  • The host raised the possibility that 50% of planned data centers might not be completed; the founder said that seemed reasonable, citing potential problems with permits, land, utility connections, and air permits.

Takeaways

  • Crusoe is a private-company exposure to AI infrastructure, not a publicly traded stock. Its valuation reflects a capital-intensive business spanning facilities, energy, chips, and services.
  • The discussion suggests assessing the economics of the whole platform—not just data-center construction or GPU rentals—because margins can shift between infrastructure and services.
  • Watch whether projects reach operation on time and whether reserved compute capacity stays in demand. Permitting, labor availability, power access, and construction delays are specific execution risks discussed in the episode.
  • The founder said a public listing may eventually help Crusoe access capital, but gave no timeline or commitment.

AI Data Centers, Compute, and Energy

Context

  • The founder argued that AI data centers need not be concentrated in traditional hubs. In his view, AI workloads can be located closer to low-cost, abundant energy because data-center computation can matter more than network travel time.
  • He described available power and skilled labor as major constraints on building data centers. He also said vertically integrating parts of the supply chain can help overcome bottlenecks: Crusoe made a power-distribution component in 28 weeks, versus a quoted vendor lead time of 100 weeks.
  • The founder said data-center projects can face local opposition and policy friction. He argued that modern closed-loop cooling designs can use very little water and that new generation capacity and infrastructure investment can lower local energy costs. These were his claims in the discussion, not independent guarantees.
  • He also acknowledged construction-related disruption, including traffic, dust, and noise, and said permitting and utility interconnection can prevent projects from being built.

Takeaways

  • The opportunity discussed is broader than owning data centers: it includes power generation, electrical equipment, skilled construction, GPU hosting, and inference services.
  • For investors evaluating the theme, project delivery and access to power may matter as much as announced capacity. Consider whether a project has land, permits, utility connections, and labor in place.
  • Treat claims about lower community energy costs and minimal water use as company viewpoints to verify for each project and location.
  • The transcript offers a favorable long-term view of AI infrastructure demand, but it does not provide a price target or a specific public-market recommendation.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

Context

  • Crusoe’s founder described the company as a long-term NVIDIA partner and said its data centers are designed around the power and computing needs of GPUs.
  • He called the GPU the most valuable asset in a data center and said idle GPUs represent money being wasted.
  • The founder said Crusoe uses a six-year depreciation cycle for chips. He cited NVIDIA Hopper GPUs as an example: three years after their launch, rates for using them were higher than the rates charged when they were new.
  • He argued that older chips can remain useful for less demanding or lower-cost workloads, particularly when services make the underlying hardware less visible to customers.

Takeaways

  • The discussion supports monitoring continued demand for NVIDIA’s GPUs and how effectively compute providers keep them utilized.
  • The speaker’s experience suggests GPU value may last longer than some investors expect, but this is not a guarantee: the transcript also describes compute pricing as subject to commodity-like fluctuations.
  • When assessing GPU-related businesses, consider utilization, customer contracts, and the ability to serve workloads on older chips—not just the purchase price or assumed replacement schedule.
  • No NVIDIA price target or direct buy/sell recommendation was given.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Context

  • Crusoe initially used Bitcoin mining as a way to monetize low-cost, otherwise wasted energy while developing its AI platform.
  • The founder described the company’s Bitcoin period as part of its original strategy, rather than a complete change in its long-term goal of building AI infrastructure.

Takeaways

  • The episode presents Bitcoin mining as one possible use of inexpensive energy and compute infrastructure, not as a forecast about Bitcoin’s price.
  • Investors considering the theme should distinguish the economics of mining operations from the price outlook for BTC; the transcript provided no BTC price target or recommendation.

AI Inference and Open-Source Models

Context

  • The founder described inference—the process of serving model outputs—as a growing source of demand for compute. He said customers may value speed, throughput, and cost per token, not just access to GPUs.
  • He said customers currently spend more on closed-source frontier models but generate more tokens on open-source models.
  • He expects demand for both approaches: companies may use frontier models while also adapting or hosting models using their own data.
  • The founder described providers such as Fireworks as operating in a market where companies can compete in some areas and collaborate in others.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to managed inference and other software services as potential ways for infrastructure providers to earn revenue beyond renting GPU capacity.
  • Investors following this market can monitor customer adoption, GPU utilization, and whether providers can deliver useful performance at lower cost. The transcript does not identify a single winning model or provider.
  • The founder’s view is that open-source and closed-source models can coexist; the episode does not support assuming that one will fully displace the other.

MongoDB (MDB)

Context

  • MongoDB was mentioned in a sponsor advertisement, not as part of the interview’s investment discussion. The ad promoted its database, vector search, and AI-agent products and claimed that 75% of the Fortune 100 use MongoDB for critical applications.

Takeaways

  • The advertisement presents MongoDB as a potential beneficiary of AI application development, but it is promotional material rather than an independent investment assessment.
  • The transcript provided no valuation analysis, stock recommendation, or price target for MDB.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX)

Context

  • Exxon and Chevron were mentioned as examples of vertically integrated energy companies. The founder compared their upstream, midstream, and downstream structure with Crusoe’s approach to earning revenue across data centers, GPUs, and AI services.
  • The comparison was an analogy about business structure, not a discussion of either company’s stock.

Takeaways

  • The episode offers no direct investment thesis, price target, or recommendation for XOM or CVX.
  • The broader concept to note is vertical integration: owning multiple stages of a value chain may help a company adapt when margins shift between those stages.
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Episode Description
Chase Lochmiller is the Co-founder and CEO of Crusoe. Crusoe builds and powers the data centres that companies use to train and run AI. It has raised approximately $6.4 billion in equity, including its latest $3.9 billion Series F at a $30.9 billion valuation. Its backers include NVIDIA, Founders Fund, Gavin Baker's Atreides Management, Mubadala Capital and Valor Equity Partners. AGENDA: 04:40 What Does Climbing Everest Teach You About Building a Company? 17:40 What's Really Stopping Us From Building Enough AI Data Centres? 25:50 Are Data Centres Really Driving Up Your Energy Bills? 28:05 Will Half of Planned AI Data Centres Never Get Built? 32:10 How Quickly Can a GPU Pay for Itself? 38:35 Will Your GPUs Become Obsolete Before You've Paid Them Off? 44:20 What Does It Take to Produce the Cheapest Intelligence? 49:50 Will Companies Building Their Own Models Eat Into OpenAI's Business? 51:55 Can You Build a $30B Company and Still Be a Great Dad?
About The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch

By Harry Stebbings

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC) interviews the world's greatest venture capitalists with prior guests including Sequoia's Doug Leone and Benchmark's Bill Gurley. Once per week, 20VC Host, Harry Stebbings is also joined by one of the great founders of our time with prior founder episodes from Spotify's Daniel Ek, Linkedin's Reid Hoffman, and Snowflake's Frank Slootman. If you would like to see more of The Twenty Minute VC (20VC), head to www.20vc.com for more information on the podcast, show notes, resources and more.