I Lost Big On Hard Drive Stocks, ASML About To Crash 40%, Marvel Stock, Seagate | Martin Shkreli
I Lost Big On Hard Drive Stocks, ASML About To Crash 40%, Marvel Stock, Seagate | Martin Shkreli
YouTube25 min 22 sec
Watch on YouTube
Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • STX: Hold or add cautiously only after verifying the disputed Toshiba deal reports; speakers saw the dip as a possible opportunity but acknowledged losses and short-term uncertainty.
  • ASML: Avoid acting on the unverified claim of a potential 40% drop; check the company’s guidance and export-control updates before taking a position.
  • INTC: Treat earnings on the 29th as the key near-term catalyst; the discussion noted recent weakness but offered no clear earnings outlook.
  • DNA, RXRX, and TWST: Be cautious about AI-biotech enthusiasm without evidence of drug-development progress; the cited downside views were opinions, not confirmed targets.
Detailed Analysis

Seagate Technology (STX)

  • The speakers said they were trading Seagate and had averaged down after it fell, describing the position as a source of losses. One said Seagate had previously turned from a big loser into a big gainer, so the outcome remained uncertain.
  • The immediate news was a reported bidding contest involving Toshiba’s hard-drive unit, with Seagate and TDK mentioned as potential participants. Toshiba disputed Bloomberg’s report of a bidding war with Seagate.
  • Despite the drop, one speaker said the news did not seem bad and could present a buying opportunity, adding that they were not worried about Seagate and that a recovery might take a few days.
  • A participant raised the risk that memory-related commodities could face pressure if Chinese supply increases; this was not presented as a confirmed development.

Takeaways

  • The discussion offers a mixed, short-term view: the speakers were holding or adding to Seagate while acknowledging losses and uncertainty around the reported deal.
  • Investors following the story could verify the Toshiba reports and assess Seagate’s exposure to hard-drive demand and pricing before treating the dip as a buying opportunity.

Toshiba (Hard-Drive Unit)

  • A reported bidding war for Toshiba’s hard-drive unit was cited as the reason Seagate shares were falling.
  • Toshiba reportedly disputed Bloomberg’s account of a bidding war with Seagate, leaving the deal situation unclear.

Takeaways

  • The potential transaction is a catalyst to monitor, but the transcript provides no confirmed terms, valuation, or outcome.

TDK

  • TDK was mentioned as another potential participant in the reported contest for Toshiba’s hard-drive unit.

Takeaways

  • The transcript provides no assessment of TDK’s broader business or investment merits; the mention is limited to its possible role in the reported bidding process.

ASML (ASML)

  • ASML was described as a strong recent trade, with one speaker saying a trader had made about $30,000 from it over several days.
  • The speakers also said they had been short ASML and one urged a colleague to get out of the position.
  • A participant claiming to work at ASML said the company was lowering sales forecasts and reducing employees. The speaker treated this as unverified and said that, if true, ASML could drop 40% the following week. This was a conditional comment, not a confirmed forecast.
  • China-related restrictions were discussed. The speaker said China might still find ways to obtain the machines despite export controls and installation requirements.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment was conflicted: ASML had recently produced gains, while the speakers discussed short exposure and an unverified warning about forecasts and staffing.
  • The 40% decline was presented as conditional on an unverified claim, not as a formal price target. Verify company guidance and export-control developments before drawing conclusions.

Intel (INTC)

  • Intel was described as having had several difficult trading days, and the speakers noted that a colleague was long the stock.
  • The speakers said Intel was due to report earnings on the 29th; the transcript does not specify the month or year.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was cautious, highlighting recent weakness and an upcoming earnings event.
  • The transcript gives no long-term view or specific earnings expectations, so the report date is the main stated catalyst.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The speakers said they were not trading NVIDIA, partly because buying at an all-time high felt risky.
  • One speaker said they were “heavy” in NVIDIA, but the surrounding remarks suggest this may refer to an existing position or exposure; the exact position was not clarified.

Takeaways

  • The discussion reflects hesitation about entering after a strong run, rather than a clear bearish view on the company.
  • No price target or timeline was given.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM)

  • Taiwan Semi was mentioned among the semiconductor names a colleague was not trading.
  • No company-specific assessment or position was provided.

Takeaways

  • The transcript offers no direct investment thesis for TSM.

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI)

  • AAOI was mentioned as a semiconductor-related stock the speakers wanted a colleague to consider researching and trading.
  • Later, the speaker noted that AAOI was up 6%, alongside other optical and networking-related companies.

Takeaways

  • The comments suggest interest in AI-linked optical infrastructure, but the transcript does not provide a valuation, earnings view, or explicit recommendation.

Micron Technology (MU) and SK Hynix

  • Micron and SK Hynix were mentioned among semiconductor and memory names a colleague was not trading.
  • Later, the speakers noted that neither was on a list of the most-traded stocks and that SK Hynix was down on the day.

Takeaways

  • The transcript provides little company-specific analysis. A participant raised the possibility that increased Chinese supply could eventually weigh on memory commodities, but this was not substantiated in the discussion.

Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX)

  • Applied Materials and Lam Research were mentioned as semiconductor-equipment names a colleague was not trading.
  • No specific outlook, position, or catalyst was discussed for either company.

Takeaways

  • The transcript offers no direct investment view on AMAT or LRCX.

Marvell Technology (MRVL)

  • The speakers discussed Marvell’s Investor Day and a CEO statement describing total revenue of 70 to 90 by fiscal 2030. The transcript does not specify the unit or currency.
  • One speaker called the news significant, while also saying they were short Marvell and that the trade was working. The speaker said they had exited the position quickly.

Takeaways

  • Marvell drew attention because of a long-range revenue ambition, but the speakers’ trading stance was mixed.
  • The stated revenue figure lacks context in the transcript, so investors should check the company’s Investor Day materials for the exact metric, unit, and assumptions.

Ginkgo Bioworks (DNA)

  • The speakers described the AI-biotech rally as potentially losing steam and compared the enthusiasm to the early excitement around the Human Genome Project.
  • One speaker said Ginkgo had been shorted around $17 and was trading around $13, while also saying they had exited a short earlier and later referring to being short. The position changed or was described inconsistently.
  • Ginkgo was later grouped with Moderna and Recursion as a stock whose connection to AI may be more promotional than central to whether its drugs succeed.

Takeaways

  • The speaker was skeptical of the AI-biotech narrative and focused on whether the underlying drug-development work produces results.
  • The transcript contains conflicting descriptions of the speaker’s Ginkgo position; it does not establish a clear current holding.

Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX)

  • Recursion was described as part of the AI-biotech rally, but one speaker called it a weak company and said it might finish the day lower.
  • The speakers questioned whether the AI label meaningfully differentiates the business, emphasizing that a drug company ultimately needs its drugs to work.
  • RXRX was later described as dropping sharply.

Takeaways

  • The discussion is skeptical, particularly of using an AI association as a substitute for evidence of drug-development success.
  • No price target or specific company catalyst was provided.

Moderna (MRNA)

  • One speaker said they were short Moderna and described having been liquidated on a small portion of the short through Hyperliquid.
  • Moderna was described as falling, including a comment that it was approaching $200. A participant asked about $187, but the transcript does not establish that as a target.
  • The speakers linked Moderna’s weakness to a possible reversal in the broader AI-biotech rally, while also noting later that gains in Moderna had helped offset Seagate losses.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s stated stance was bearish, but the discussion also reflects volatile trading and changing P&L.
  • The figures mentioned are observations or questions, not formal price targets.

Twist Bioscience (TWST)

  • Twist was described as having “dropped like a rock,” and one speaker said they had shorted it.
  • The speaker cautioned that the decline might be only a small pullback after a historic run, and said there could still be 50% more downside. They also stressed that there was no guarantee the decline would continue.
  • The short was described as part of the speaker’s biotech sector activity.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw further downside potential but explicitly warned against assuming the decline was finished.
  • The 50% downside comment was an opinion, not a confirmed target or timeline.

Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY)

  • One speaker said they had generally been bearish on Bristol Myers but had been reviewing its pipeline.
  • The discussion mentioned a PD-VEGF bispecific, a PROTAC, a Chinese EGFR/HER3 antibody-drug conjugate described as distinctive, milvexian, and an Arlocell CAR-T program.
  • The speaker described some assets as less compelling or having limitations, while saying Bristol Myers was doing reasonably well in CAR-T.

Takeaways

  • The view was cautious but research-oriented: the speaker was examining individual pipeline programs rather than expressing an unqualified view on the company.
  • The transcript provides no valuation, price target, or trial dates.

BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO)

  • BridgeBio was mentioned while the speakers were checking upcoming earnings dates, but no company-specific thesis or position was discussed.

Takeaways

  • The transcript provides no direct investment view on BBIO.

Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT)

  • Sarepta was mentioned during a discussion of the speaker’s holdings, who then clarified that they were out of the position for now.

Takeaways

  • The only clear investment detail is that the speaker said they were no longer holding Sarepta. No rationale or outlook was provided.

Liquidia (LQDA) and United Therapeutics (UTHR)

  • The speakers discussed an ongoing legal dispute between Liquidia and United Therapeutics. They expected both sides to propose remedies in a court docket update.
  • The discussion also criticized a patent in the context of post-approval changes, describing it as an abuse of the patent system. The remarks were about the dispute and did not establish the court’s view.

Takeaways

  • The legal process is a company-specific catalyst and source of uncertainty for both stocks.
  • The transcript gives no expected ruling, timing beyond an anticipated docket update, or price target.

Option Care Health (OPCH)

  • Option Care was mentioned as getting bought out, but the speakers gave no details about the buyer, transaction terms, or whether the deal was confirmed.

Takeaways

  • The possible transaction could matter to shareholders, but the transcript does not provide enough information to assess its status or value.

Jaguar Health (JAGX)

  • Jaguar Health was described as “going nuts,” indicating a sharp move, but the speakers did not explain the cause.

Takeaways

  • The transcript offers no fundamental analysis or identified catalyst; the price movement alone does not support a clear investment conclusion.

Applied Digital (APLD)

  • One speaker said they did not know Applied Digital and had no particular positive or negative view of it.

Takeaways

  • No investment thesis was presented.

Nike (NKE)

  • Nike was mentioned as a company the speaker probably would not trade and no longer followed closely.

Takeaways

  • No company-specific investment analysis was provided.

Cisco Systems (CSCO)

  • One speaker said they were not following Cisco.

Takeaways

  • The transcript provides no investment view on CSCO.

NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)

  • NXP was mentioned as a company the speaker did not know well.

Takeaways

  • No investment thesis or position was provided.

AI-Linked Optical and Networking Stocks

  • The speakers noted strength in Lumentum (LITE), Corning (GLW), Ciena (CIEN), and Fabrinet (FN), alongside AAOI.
  • These companies were discussed in the context of optical and networking components used around AI infrastructure and data centers.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to interest in the AI infrastructure supply chain beyond chipmakers, but gives no company-specific financial analysis or recommendation.
  • The group’s share-price strength was noted without identifying a particular catalyst for each company.

ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG)

  • The speakers said ARKG had been up about 4% earlier and was later down around 7%, illustrating a sharp intraday reversal.

Takeaways

  • The comments highlight volatility in the genomics and biotech theme, but do not provide a directional investment view on the ETF.

SpaceX (Private Company)

  • SpaceX was mentioned in a passing question about whether it would be sold; no answer or investment analysis followed.

Takeaways

  • No investable recommendation or company outlook was given.
Ask about this postAnswers are grounded in this post's content.
Video Description
🔴 USE CODE: THESHKRELIPILL for 30% OFF! https://app.godelterminal.com/?via=theshkrelipill ✅ [𝗣𝗔𝗬𝗣𝗔𝗟 𝗗𝗢𝗡𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡𝗦] https://paypal.me/theshkrelipill [𝗢𝗥𝗜𝗚𝗜𝗡𝗔𝗟 𝗩𝗜𝗗𝗘𝗢] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Hk6xe6sURE 📖 [𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗧𝗜𝗡'𝗦 𝗕𝗢𝗢𝗞 𝗥𝗘𝗖𝗢𝗠𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗗𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡𝗦 𝗙𝗥𝗢𝗠 𝗛𝗜𝗦 𝗟𝗜𝗩𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗠𝗦] 𝗙𝗨𝗟𝗟 𝗟𝗜𝗦𝗧 👉 https://pastebin.com/XiG8KHd6 📖 𝐉𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐎𝐰𝐞𝐧 𝐖𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥𝐥: 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐡𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐖𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐭: 𝐀 𝐁𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐟 𝐇𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐧𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 [BOOK] https://amzn.to/3GIVAZe [KINDLE] https://amzn.to/48f2bq3 [FREE AUDIO W/ FREE TRIAL] https://amzn.to/3TpKcsW 📖 𝐃𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐝 𝐉. 𝐋𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐰𝐞𝐛𝐞𝐫: 𝐍𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐖𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐭: 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐡, 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐖𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 [BOOK] https://amzn.to/3NtqF73 [KINDLE] https://amzn.to/46U7Twh 📖 𝗝. 𝗖𝗵𝗿𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗽𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗚𝗶𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗼: 𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼𝗗𝗮𝗱: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆 [BOOK] https://amzn.to/3RBF9UD [KINDLE] https://amzn.to/3RqeysG [FREE AUDIO W/ FREE TRIAL] https://amzn.to/3NKiymP [𝗧𝗜𝗠𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗠𝗣𝗦] | [💎] = tips, advice, gems 00:00 The Truth About Becoming a Portfolio Manager 01:05 [💎] Toshiba Hard Drive Bidding War Hits Seagate (STX) 02:08 Why Traders Are Scared to Touch Nvidia (NVDA) 04:08 How ASML (ASML) Microchip Gear Reaches China 05:01 [💎] Secret Insider Claims ASML (ASML) Will Crash 40% 07:35 [💎] AI Biotech Rally Miraculously Mirrors 2000 Tech Bubble 08:29 Marvell (MRVL) News & High-Volatility Semiconductor Trades 10:00 How Long It Takes to Master Biotech & Wall Street 11:46 [💎] Skill vs. Luck: Are You Actually a Good Trader? 12:38 Moderna (MRNA) Short Pays Off & Technicals Debunked 14:24 The Death of AI Token Maxing & Budget Realities 16:16 [💎] Optical Tech Stocks Explode Across the Board 18:31 "Recursion Has No AI": Exposing Biotech Hype 18:54 Deep Dive into Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) Pipeline 21:19 Memory Commodity Market Crash Warning 22:00 Legal Updates & Managing Portfolio Losses [𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗧𝗜𝗡'𝗦 𝗢𝗙𝗙𝗜𝗖𝗜𝗔𝗟 𝗬𝗢𝗨𝗧𝗨𝗕𝗘 𝗖𝗛𝗔𝗡𝗡𝗘𝗟𝗦] 🔴 𝗙𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗟𝗶𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗺𝘀 𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲: @realmartinshkreli https://www.youtube.com/@realmartinshkreli/streams 🔴 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻'𝘀 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 & 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘆 𝗟𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗼𝗻𝘀 @mrmartinshkreli8223 https://www.youtube.com/@mrmartinshkreli8223/videos [𝗦𝗢𝗖𝗜𝗔𝗟𝗦] 𝗦𝗵𝗸𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗶'𝘀 𝗦𝗼𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹: https://linktr.ee/martinshkreli 𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗛𝗶𝘀 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗺: https://streamlabs.com/martinshkreli2 𝗪𝗲𝗯𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗲: http://www.martinshkreli.com/ 𝗚𝗶𝘁𝗵𝘂𝗯: https://github.com/martinshkreli [𝗣𝗟𝗔𝗬𝗟𝗜𝗦𝗧𝗦] https://www.youtube.com/@TheShkreliPill/playlists [𝗙𝗜𝗡𝗔𝗡𝗖𝗘 𝗔𝗡𝗗 𝗜𝗡𝗩𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗖𝗟𝗔𝗦𝗦 [𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟲] 𝗧𝗜𝗠𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗠𝗣𝗦 𝗔𝗡𝗗 𝗘𝗗𝗜𝗧𝗘𝗗] https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLBfupwmfhBrWnPtx_5Nm4OvhqmRXdD9AF [𝗕𝗘𝗦𝗧 𝗢𝗙 𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗧𝗜𝗡 𝗦𝗛𝗞𝗥𝗘𝗟𝗜: 𝗜𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 & 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘄𝘀] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2aRJ4ljm0o&list=PLBfupwmfhBrVjLr-lRNa_tDjVatMA9S9d&index=19 [𝗢𝗣𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡𝗦 𝗔𝗡𝗗 𝗦𝗛𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗦𝗧𝗥𝗔𝗧𝗘𝗚𝗜𝗘𝗦 | 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝗵𝗸𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗶] https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLBfupwmfhBrUm2y3lLiKSN4FDmly5vipV [𝗗𝗥𝗨𝗚 𝗗𝗜𝗦𝗖𝗢𝗩𝗘𝗥𝗬 𝗣𝗥𝗢𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 & 𝗣𝗔𝗧𝗘𝗡𝗧 𝗗𝗨𝗥𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡𝗦] https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLBfupwmfhBrU5M3f2OZ2BhPnaQyGwnnYn [𝗜𝗡𝗩𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗜𝗡𝗚 & 𝗙𝗜𝗡𝗔𝗡𝗖𝗜𝗔𝗟 𝗟𝗘𝗦𝗦𝗢𝗡𝗦] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZMHBcQncgk&list=PLBfupwmfhBrXbXbKHdmk9nzjnO77Ok5qn&index=9 [𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗧𝗫 / 𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗘𝗿𝗮 [𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟮] | 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝗵𝗸𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗶] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jklylG7pBF0&list=PLBfupwmfhBrWq8DwWFcnzKPf42WJtJ3Kd&index=4 [ ! ] The videos on my YouTube channel include material from Martin Shkreli’s livestreams. The use of the video material is authorized by Martin Shkreli Any video material that appears identically in uploads from other YouTube channels is purely coincidental. I have no control over or ownership of such reuploads and am not aware of their relationship with the original creator. [𝗔𝗙𝗙𝗜𝗟𝗜𝗔𝗧𝗘 𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗞 𝗗𝗜𝗦𝗖𝗟𝗔𝗜𝗠𝗘𝗥] Amazon links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I'm part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering website. By purchasing product through this link you help supporting this channel.
About The Shkreli Pill
The Shkreli Pill

The Shkreli Pill

By @theshkrelipill

Martin Shkreli Livestream Highlights [ ! ] The videos on my YouTube channel include material from Martin Shkreli's livestreams.