Why AI Agents Still Fail at Simple Tasks with Teng Yan
Why AI Agents Still Fail at Simple Tasks with Teng Yan
Podcast41 min 17 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider an investment in BitTensor (TAO) as a high-risk, high-reward bet on an incubator for dozens of AI startups building on its network. For a more established "picks and shovels" strategy, invest in the Data Center supply chain, led by chipmaker NVIDIA (NVDA), to capitalize on the AI infrastructure build-out. Be aware that the data center thesis is at risk if the "scaling laws" of AI development hit a plateau, diminishing the returns on new hardware. Looking ahead, investors should monitor for a potential SpaceX IPO in 2026, which is speculated to debut at a valuation near $1.5 trillion. Finally, investors bullish on the intersection of blockchain and privacy can research the NEAR Protocol (NEAR) ecosystem and its private AI tools.

Detailed Analysis

NEAR Protocol (NEAR)

  • The podcast episode is presented by NEAR, which the host describes as "the leading AI blockchain".
  • NEAR has released products like Near AI chat and Near Cloud, which are positioned as privacy-focused AI tools.
  • The key value proposition highlighted is that users can interact with powerful Large Language Models (LLMs) without their data being stored, used for training, or shared with third parties like government authorities.
  • The host claims the private chat on near.ai is "the one and only current AI tool that is private today," utilizing encryption and other privacy-preserving technologies.

Takeaways

  • NEAR is making a strategic push to become the go-to blockchain for decentralized and private AI.
  • For investors, this represents a bet on the growing importance of data privacy in the age of AI. As users become more aware of how their data is used by major AI companies, demand for private alternatives like those offered by NEAR could increase.
  • Actionable Insight: Investors bullish on the intersection of blockchain and AI, specifically with a focus on privacy, should research NEAR's AI ecosystem and the adoption of its privacy tools.
  • Risk Factor: It's important to note that NEAR is the sponsor of the podcast, so the descriptions are promotional. Investors should conduct their own due diligence to verify the claims and assess the technology's traction.

BitTensor (TAO)

  • The guest, a full-time AI researcher, mentioned that BitTensor was a key factor that drew him deep into the decentralized AI space.
  • He describes an investment in BitTensor (TAO) as being similar to investing in an incubator or accelerator for AI projects. By holding the token, you are getting exposure to the "60 to 100 different AI startups" building on its network (known as subnets).
  • The guest acknowledges that most of these subnets will likely fail, but the investment thesis is that a few could become highly successful and generate significant value.
  • Some subnets are reportedly already generating revenue.

Takeaways

  • BitTensor offers a unique investment model: a diversified bet on a wide range of early-stage AI projects within a single ecosystem.
  • This is a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. The potential upside comes from one or more subnets achieving breakout success, while the risk is that none do, or the model proves unsustainable.
  • Risk Factor: The guest explicitly mentions a key risk: the revenue generated by subnets is currently "subsidized by the Tau token." This raises questions about the long-term economic sustainability of the network once token emissions decrease.
  • Actionable Insight: Investors should monitor the BitTensor ecosystem for signs of genuine product-market fit and revenue generation that is not solely dependent on token subsidies. Look for developer activity and user growth on the most promising subnets.

Investment Theme: AI Agents

  • The guest predicts that 2026 will be "the year of the AI agents," where we see agents capable of performing complex, autonomous tasks come to life.
  • Currently, agents are good at single-domain tasks like research or coding but fail at multi-step real-world actions (e.g., autonomously booking a flight).
  • The primary bottleneck is a data problem. There is a lack of high-quality training data showing humans performing these complex sequences of tasks, which is necessary to teach the models.

Takeaways

  • The development of reliable AI agents represents a massive, untapped market and the next major frontier in AI applications.
  • The current limitation is not just model intelligence but the availability of specific training data for autonomous actions.
  • Actionable Insight: Investors should look for companies focused on solving this AI agent data problem. This could include companies developing new methods for data collection, creating simulation environments for training agents, or building the foundational platforms that will host these future agents. Breakthroughs in agent reliability will be a key catalyst for this sector.

Investment Theme: Data Centers

  • The massive build-out of data centers is described as an "AI space race," driven by the belief that more computing power ("compute") leads to more intelligent AI models (the "scaling laws").
  • The guest raises the question of whether this is a "big freaking bubble."
  • The primary risk of this bubble bursting is if the "scaling laws" hit a plateau. If spending billions more on data centers and chips stops yielding significant improvements in AI capabilities, the investment thesis for this massive infrastructure spend could collapse.
  • For now, major tech companies are forced to participate in this race to remain competitive, creating immense demand for the underlying hardware and infrastructure.

Takeaways

  • Investing in the data center supply chain (e.g., companies like NVIDIA for chips, real estate trusts for facilities, and power companies) is a direct way to invest in the AI boom.
  • This is a "picks and shovels" play on the AI gold rush. As long as the race for more powerful AI continues, the demand for data center components should remain strong.
  • Actionable Insight: Investors in this theme should closely monitor the state of AI research. Any credible reports suggesting that "scaling laws" are breaking down would be a major red flag for the data center investment thesis. Conversely, continued breakthroughs will likely fuel further investment.

Other Mentioned Companies

  • NVIDIA (NVDA): Mentioned in the context of its massive $2 trillion+ valuation, highlighting its central role in providing the computing power for the AI boom. This reinforces its status as a primary "picks and shovels" investment in the AI sector.
  • SpaceX: The host mentioned a speculative plan for SpaceX to go public in 2026 at a potential $1.5 trillion valuation. This is a forward-looking event for investors interested in high-growth, large-cap tech IPOs to monitor.
  • Disney (DIS): Mentioned for its $1 billion investment in OpenAI. This signals that major legacy corporations are aggressively adopting AI to innovate and stay competitive, suggesting the broad and deep economic impact of AI beyond the tech industry.
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Episode Description
AI promises autonomous agents that book flights and handle tasks. We're not there yet but 2026 might change everything. In this episode of AI Supercycle, we sit down with Teng Yan of Chain of Thought to explore when AI agents will actually work autonomously and who really owns the AI powering them. Teng breaks down the data center space race, crypto-AI infrastructure traction, and whether we're heading toward an AI privacy crisis in 2026. We discuss: - Why Model Improvements Are Accelerating Fast - The Truth About Prompt Engineering - Are We Facing an AI Privacy Crisis? - When Will Agents Actually Work Autonomously? - The Data Center Space Race: Bubble or Breakthrough? - Crypto-AI Infrastructure: What's Actually Getting Traction? Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:37 Near Protocol Ad 01:56 Teng's AI Background & Journey 06:15 2025: The Year AI Leveled Up 08:44 Haliday Ad, infiniFi Ad, YEET Ad 09:16 Model Improvements Across the Stack 14:22 Prompt Engineering Myths Debunked 18:45 Giving Models Context 22:10 Testing Across Multiple LLMs 24:30 AI Privacy: Crisis Brewing? 27:37 Kalshi Ad, Hibachi Ad, Trezor Ad 28:11 Near's Private AI Solution 32:40 Agent Landscape Reality Check 38:25 Why Agents Still Fail at Simple Tasks 42:15 2026: Year of the Agent? 45:30 Ethics of For-Profit AI Giants 51:20 The Data Center Bubble Question 55:45 Bit Tensor & Crypto-AI Traction 59:30 What to Watch in Blockchain AI Website: https://therollup.co/ Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1P6ZeYd... Podcast: https://therollup.co/category/podcast Follow us on X: https://www.x.com/therollupco Follow Rob on X: https://www.x.com/robbie_rollup Follow Andy on X: https://www.x.com/ayyyeandy Join our TG group: https://t.me/+TsM1CRpWFgk1NGZh The Rollup Disclosures: https://therollup.co/the-rollup-discl ๐——๐—œ๐—ฆ๐—–๐—Ÿ๐—”๐—œ๐— ๐—˜๐—ฅ: ๐˜๐˜ฏ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜ค๐˜ณ๐˜บ๐˜ฑ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ๐˜ค๐˜ถ๐˜ณ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜บ ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜‹๐˜ฆ๐˜๐˜ช ๐˜ฑ๐˜ญ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ฎ๐˜ด ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ฉ ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ด๐˜ฌ๐˜ด ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ญ๐˜ถ๐˜ฅ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ๐˜ฏ๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ด๐˜ฌ, ๐˜ฉ๐˜ถ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ, ๐˜ฑ๐˜ญ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ฎ ๐˜ง๐˜ข๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ. ๐˜ˆ๐˜ต ๐˜ค๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฐ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ด ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜จ๐˜ฉ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜ด ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ, ๐˜ธ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜บ ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ข ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ด๐˜ด๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ ๐˜ง๐˜ฆ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ข๐˜ด ๐˜ข ๐˜ด๐˜ฑ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ด๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ด๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜ฑ, ๐˜ช๐˜ง ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜ด ๐˜ช๐˜ด ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ด๐˜ฆ ๐˜ธ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ญ ๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜บ๐˜ด ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ด๐˜ถ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ช๐˜ต ๐˜ช๐˜ด ๐˜ค๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ. ๐˜ž๐˜ฆ ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ต๐˜ญ๐˜บ ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ถ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต ๐˜ฑ๐˜ญ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ฎ, ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ธ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง๐˜ง๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ช๐˜ด ๐˜ง๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ข๐˜ฅ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฆ. ๐˜ž๐˜ฆ ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜ฑ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ด๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ด ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ข๐˜ฅ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ด๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ด.
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