Jeremy Schwartz: Today Is Nothing Like The 2000 Tech Bubble
Jeremy Schwartz: Today Is Nothing Like The 2000 Tech Bubble
Podcast35 min 21 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Broad U.S. equities, including the expanded technology sector, appear reasonably valued at about 22× forward earnings; favor companies showing real earnings, margin, and productivity gains from AI rather than buying on headlines alone.
  • Be selective within large tech: Tesla (TSLA) trades at roughly 150–200× forward earnings, making its valuation highly dependent on future businesses such as robotics and self-driving; a SpaceX–Tesla deal remains speculation, not a confirmed catalyst.
  • Consider Bitcoin (BTC) only as a portfolio diversifier, with some models using up to 5%; no price target was provided, and it is not a guaranteed hedge.
  • 10-year TIPS, with real yields around 2.5–3%, may offer an attractive inflation-adjusted return and portfolio ballast; understand the risks and structure before using leveraged or futures-based strategies.
Detailed Analysis

Broad U.S. Equities and Expanded Technology Sector

  • Schwartz said public-market valuations do not resemble the 2000 tech bubble: the expanded technology sector, which he described as roughly half the S&P 500, trades at about 22 times forward earnings, versus a 30-year median near 30 times.
  • He said earnings growth is helping drive the market and bring valuations down. He sees AI adoption as early, with productivity gains for the average company still largely ahead.
  • Risks he identified include whether large AI-related spending will produce adequate returns, questions about private companies’ ability to keep raising capital, and disruption to some jobs.

Takeaways

  • The discussion supports a more measured view than “AI bubble” comparisons alone: Schwartz sees broad public-market valuations as reasonable, while emphasizing that the payoff from AI spending still needs to show up in company results.
  • Consider company earnings, margins, and evidence of productivity gains—not just AI-related headlines—when evaluating exposure to the sector.

NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon, and Tesla

  • Schwartz grouped these companies within the “MAG7” and expanded technology discussion. He said Tesla was the only one with a valuation resembling the expensive tech stocks of 2000, at roughly 150–200 times forward earnings, depending on the measure.
  • He described Apple as relatively expensive among the large companies, with a P/E in the high 30s, and said it was growing more slowly. He noted that Warren Buffett bought Apple at about 12 times earnings and later sold it.
  • He did not provide individual valuation details for NVIDIA, Microsoft, Meta, Google, or Amazon, but said the broader expanded technology group was around 22 times forward earnings.

Takeaways

  • The transcript points to meaningful valuation differences within large technology companies; it does not support treating them as one uniform investment.
  • Schwartz’s comments make valuation and growth especially relevant considerations for Apple and Tesla. No specific buy or sell recommendations were given.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • Schwartz said Tesla’s valuation—about 150–200 times forward earnings—is unusually high relative to the other large technology companies he discussed.
  • He said the investment case is not just about cars, but also about humanoid robots, self-driving technology, and Elon Musk’s leadership.
  • He expects a SpaceX–Tesla combination and said he thinks SpaceX would acquire Tesla, describing this as his view rather than a confirmed transaction.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presents Tesla as a high-valuation, future-growth investment whose case depends substantially on businesses beyond its current car operations.
  • Treat the proposed merger as speculation: the transcript provides no confirmed deal terms or valuation.

SpaceX

  • Schwartz said SpaceX was a top holding, at roughly 15–17%, in WisdomTree’s U.S. and European space ETFs.
  • He described SpaceX as an “interesting” investment and said its potential advantage could come from building computing capacity in orbit, supported by power, cooling, and other infrastructure.
  • He cited a scenario in which SpaceX adds 10 gigawatts of computing capacity at $50 billion of revenue per gigawatt, implying $500 billion of revenue in that scenario. He also relayed much larger figures discussed by Musk, but did not present a formal valuation or forecast.
  • Schwartz said he expects SpaceX and Tesla to combine, with SpaceX acquiring Tesla, but gave no timeline or deal details.

Takeaways

  • SpaceX’s investment case in the discussion centers on potential space-based computing and its existing role in space-related funds.
  • The revenue figures are scenario-based and highly ambitious, not a stated price target. Consider the uncertainty around execution and any potential merger before treating them as an investment forecast.

General Motors (GM)

  • Schwartz noted that GM announced a move to list on Nasdaq and said its shares rose 5% that day.
  • He suggested the move might help GM qualify for inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 (“the Qs”), potentially drawing index-related demand. He also questioned whether a Nasdaq listing makes a company a better technology business.

Takeaways

  • The discussion identifies possible index inclusion as a short-term catalyst, not a change in GM’s underlying business prospects.
  • No specific investment recommendation or longer-term view on GM was given.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Schwartz said Bitcoin can serve as a diversifier in a multi-asset portfolio and described it as a possible hedge.
  • He said WisdomTree’s European business has more Bitcoin exposure because related ETF products were permitted there earlier.
  • He said some of the firm’s models allocated as much as 5% to Bitcoin. In one approach, the allocation came from bonds; in an 80/20 portfolio, it came from stocks.
  • He did not give a Bitcoin price target and said he did not have a specific model supporting targets such as $700,000 or $1 million.

Takeaways

  • The actionable view offered was a small portfolio allocation, with some models going as high as 5%, rather than a prediction about Bitcoin’s price.
  • Treat Bitcoin as a potential diversifier, not a guaranteed hedge; the transcript does not quantify its risk or specify a recommended allocation for every investor.

Gold and Commodities

  • Schwartz said WisdomTree has been an early and large investor in gold and has long favored diversifying beyond stocks and bonds.
  • He described Bitcoin as sometimes being called “digital gold,” but said WisdomTree does not prefer that label and has also developed a tokenized gold product.
  • He said U.S. investors have generally been underexposed to commodities and other alternatives compared with traditional stock-and-bond portfolios.

Takeaways

  • The discussion favors considering commodities and alternatives as potential portfolio diversifiers, rather than relying only on stocks and bonds.
  • No specific gold or commodity allocation was recommended.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and Bonds

  • Schwartz said 10-year TIPS real yields were around 2.5–3%, among their highest levels in nearly 30 years. He noted that a 2.5% annual return would roughly double an investment over 30 years.
  • He described bonds as a potential hedge against adverse events, while saying they had been unattractive when inflation-adjusted yields were negative.
  • He also discussed WisdomTree’s capital-efficient strategy combining 90% stocks and 60% bond futures per dollar invested, and other strategies that add gold or other exposures. He said these overlays use futures and their cost is short-term interest rates.

Takeaways

  • Schwartz’s comments suggest bonds may again offer a more meaningful return and a portfolio-hedging role, but he did not present them as a replacement for long-term stock exposure.
  • Capital-efficient strategies can add exposures beyond a conventional 100% allocation, but investors should understand their structure and the cost of financing the futures positions.

Tokenized Money Market Funds and Tokenized ETFs

  • Schwartz described tokenized money market funds as an early example of product-market fit after stablecoins. He said he uses WisdomTree Prime to hold cash in a tokenized money market fund and pays bills from it.
  • He said the fund provides access to Treasury-backed investments, with 24/7 access and near-instant settlement. He emphasized that it is not FDIC-insured and that the fund holds Treasuries rather than lending out customer cash.
  • He said WisdomTree has invested for about seven years in its on-chain platform and has tokenized funds, including Treasury, large-cap stock, technology, and model-portfolio exposures.
  • He expects tokenized ETFs to develop as a way to serve investors who hold assets in on-chain wallets rather than traditional brokerage accounts. He also cautioned that there could be liquidity challenges during nonstandard trading hours and “hiccups” as the market develops.

Takeaways

  • Tokenized funds may offer convenience, faster settlement, and round-the-clock access, but these features do not make them equivalent to insured bank deposits.
  • The transcript highlights lack of FDIC insurance and potential off-hours liquidity issues as considerations. Understand the product’s structure and safeguards before using it.

Stablecoins and On-Chain Finance

  • Schwartz said stablecoins can make digital payments easier to use across borders and around the clock. He described them as a more liquid way to operate digitally, while noting that the stablecoin manager earns interest on the underlying funds.
  • He argued that consumers may benefit more from tokenized money market funds that pass through Treasury yields than from stablecoins that do not pay holders comparable returns.
  • The hosts discussed tokenization, stablecoins, and perpetual futures as financial technologies with potential use cases; Schwartz focused his response mainly on tokenized funds and payments.

Takeaways

  • The discussion frames stablecoins and tokenized funds as infrastructure opportunities, but distinguishes between payment convenience and earning a return on assets.
  • Compare what a product pays, how quickly funds can be accessed, and what protections apply; the transcript does not make a specific stablecoin recommendation.

Perpetual Futures and Hyperliquid

  • The hosts cited perpetual futures and Hyperliquid as examples of digital-asset products that could improve trading for speculators and professional market participants.
  • Schwartz did not offer a specific view, forecast, or recommendation on Hyperliquid or perpetual futures.

Takeaways

  • These were raised as industry themes rather than endorsed investment opportunities.
  • The transcript provides no specific asset valuation, price target, or risk discussion for Hyperliquid or perpetual futures.
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Episode Description
Jeremy Schwartz says today is nothing like 2000. The expanded tech sector trades around a 22 forward P/E, Tesla is the only big stock priced like the dot-com era, and for public market investors there's no real bubble. If anything, he says, AI adoption hasn't even reached the national anthem. On Convergence, our series with WisdomTree, WisdomTree's Global Chief Investment Officer explains why markets are climbing a wall of worry with reasonable valuations, why he doesn't see a dramatic Fed hiking cycle, and how people across his firm built around 60 apps in five months by vibe coding, which makes him want more people using these tools, not fewer. He breaks down WisdomTree's push into tokenization, from tokenized gold to a tokenized money market fund that can now trade 24/7, and why tokenized ETFs are coming as the SEC pushes progress forward. He also previews the new collaboration with Return Stacked ETFs and explains why a few percent in Bitcoin makes sense as a diversifier in multi-asset portfolios. Jeremy Schwartz is Global Chief Investment Officer at WisdomTree and co-author of Stocks for the Long Run with Professor Jeremy Siegel. The Rollup is where the leaders of digital assets and finance converge. Live from the financial capital of the world. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 04:16 Today Is Nothing Like 2000 07:25 AI Is Still In The Earliest Innings 12:03 Vibe Coding 60 Apps In Five Months 18:36 From Gold To Tokenized Gold 24:39 Tokenization Is Coming For Your Checking Account 32:25 Tokenized ETFs Are Coming Guest Socials: Jeremy Schwartz X: https://x.com/JeremyDSchwartz WisdomTree X: https://x.com/WisdomTreeFunds Partners: Space and Time is providing verifiable data infrastructure for onchain finance. A decentralized database, blockchain indexer, and ZK coprocessor in one, giving DeFi protocols,stablecoins, and tokenized assets accurate, provable data. --- Zama is an open source cryptography company that builds state-of-the-art Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) solutions for blockchain. Learn more here: https://www.zama.org/ --- Website: https://therollup.co/ Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1P6ZeYd9vbF3hJA2n7qoL5 Podcast: https://therollup.co/category/podcast Follow us on X: https://www.x.com/therollupco Follow Rob on X: https://x.com/robbieklages Follow Andy on X: https://x.com/andyyy Join our TG group: https://t.me/+TsM1CRpWFgk1NGZh The Rollup Disclosures: https://goodidea.ventures DISCLAIMER: Investing in cryptocurrency and DeFi platforms comes with inherent risks including technical risk, human error, platform failure and more. At certain points throughout this channel, we may earn a commission or fee as a sponsorship, if this is the case we will always make sure it is clear. We are strictly an educational content platform, nothing we offer is financial advice. We are not professionals or licensed advisors.
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