Eric Conner: The 52 Month DeFi Bear Market Is Over (Full Thesis)
Eric Conner: The 52 Month DeFi Bear Market Is Over (Full Thesis)
Podcast40 min 19 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Lighter together for exposure to growing perpetual-exchange trading, rather than betting on a single winner; this thesis depends on user growth and regulatory access.
  • Ethereum (ETH) is a longer-term infrastructure opportunity tied to applications such as Robinhood Chain and Lighter; the speaker’s $20,000 target is not a consensus forecast, and near-term direction remains uncertain.
  • Monitor Robinhood (HOOD) for potential upside from tokenized assets, but treat the cited $300–$500 million annualized fee estimate as unverified and adoption-dependent.
  • Approach Zcash (ZEC) as a possible crypto diversifier, not a proven hedge; the discussion offered no valuation or price target.
Detailed Analysis

Venice (VVV; also called VVB/VBV in the transcript)

  • Eric said he bought the token below $1 shortly after launch, then sold after an early Coinbase-related price jump. He said it later rose substantially, describing a 900% run from his sale point.
  • He views Venice as a clear example of crypto adding value to the mainstream AI narrative.

Takeaways

  • The discussion is bullish on the AI–crypto crossover, but Eric’s account also highlights the risk of selling too early—or buying based on a narrative before understanding the project. The transcript gives no current valuation or price target.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Lighter

  • Eric favors owning exposure to both rather than choosing between them, arguing that the perpetual-trading market could support multiple winners.
  • He described Hyperliquid as larger, with more open interest and a broader international presence, while suggesting Lighter may be better positioned in the United States as regulation develops.
  • The hosts and Eric were positive about Lighter’s Ethereum-based design, including its speed, zero-knowledge technology, and Ethereum security and settlement.
  • Eric said the “perp” opportunity is still developing and could benefit if U.S. customers are eventually able to use these platforms legally. He also said he expects capital to rotate between smaller assets and major cryptocurrencies.

Takeaways

  • The actionable idea discussed is diversifying within the perpetual-exchange theme, rather than relying on one platform to win. The outlook depends partly on regulation, user access, and continued growth in trading activity.
  • Eric specifically cautioned that larger assets may hold up better during downturns, while smaller tokens may offer more upside but come with greater volatility. Lighter’s token ticker was not stated.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • Eric said he remains positive on Ethereum’s technology and thinks it could benefit if applications such as Robinhood Chain and Lighter succeed on Ethereum infrastructure.
  • He argued that Ethereum’s composability makes it easier for applications to connect with services such as Uniswap and Lighter.
  • Eric said he had raised his ETH price target to $20,000, while also noting that he is currently underexposed and does not have a strong near-term view on its price.
  • He suggested ETH may rise even without a widely accepted investment narrative, saying that price movements often lead investors to construct a narrative afterward.

Takeaways

  • The discussion frames ETH as a potential infrastructure and technology investment, rather than a direct revenue-sharing play.
  • The $20,000 figure is Eric’s stated target, not a consensus forecast. Consider that he also acknowledged uncertainty about ETH’s near-term direction and that he has been underexposed for some time.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Bitcoin was discussed as a large-cap asset and part of the “hard money” side of a portfolio framework, alongside Zcash and traditional metals.
  • Eric said a sharp Bitcoin decline would likely pull down the broader crypto market, even if some assets later recovered independently.
  • The hosts noted that Bitcoin did not lead the current market advance in the way it had in earlier cycles.

Takeaways

  • Bitcoin was presented as a possible portfolio anchor, but not as a guarantee against broader crypto-market declines.
  • The speakers’ view that some tokens may decouple from Bitcoin is conditional; they still expected a severe Bitcoin sell-off to affect the market.

Solana (SOL)

  • Eric said his commitment to ETH in an earlier cycle led him to miss opportunities in Solana.
  • He described Solana as one of several platforms that can have its own investment cycle, reinforcing his preference not to become a “maxi” of a single asset.
  • Solana was also mentioned in connection with trading activity and projects such as Jupiter, Raydium, and Camino.

Takeaways

  • The discussion supports avoiding overly concentrated, single-chain portfolios. It does not provide a specific Solana price target or a direct buy recommendation.

Zcash (ZEC)

  • Zcash was described as one of the market’s stronger performers and as part of the “hard money” side of a barbell portfolio.
  • The hosts characterized it as a possible counterpoint to the growing institutionalization of Bitcoin.
  • Eric cited Zcash as an example of an asset whose recent price strength appeared relatively independent of Bitcoin.

Takeaways

  • The speakers see Zcash as a potential diversifier within crypto, but the transcript offers no valuation analysis or price target. Its recent performance does not establish that it will remain independent of Bitcoin or the broader market.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR)

  • NEAR was mentioned among the AI-related crypto names that had been performing well.
  • The hosts also described it as one of the stronger performers during the market’s earlier, more selective phase.
  • No detailed project analysis or valuation was provided.

Takeaways

  • NEAR was presented as an AI and crypto market participant to monitor, not as a fully developed investment thesis. The transcript does not specify a price target or timeline.

Uniswap (UNI)

  • Uniswap was described as seeing stronger token performance and higher trading volumes.
  • The hosts viewed decentralized exchanges as potential beneficiaries if more tokenized assets and trading activity move on-chain.
  • Eric said Ethereum’s composability makes Uniswap easier for applications such as Robinhood to integrate.

Takeaways

  • The investment case discussed is tied to on-chain trading growth and composability. Investors would need to assess whether higher activity translates into durable value for the UNI token; the transcript does not make that link definitive.

Aave (AAVE) and Morpho (MORPHO)

  • The hosts suggested that lending protocols such as Aave and Morpho could benefit if on-chain trading and tokenized assets expand.
  • They discussed the possibility of using tokenized assets as collateral and borrowing against them, subject to regulatory and product development.

Takeaways

  • These protocols may be exposed to growth in on-chain lending and collateral use, but the discussion describes a potential opportunity rather than confirmed adoption or revenue.
  • The idea depends on tokenized assets being usable as collateral and on relevant rules and platform capabilities developing as expected.

Aerodrome (AERO), Jupiter (JUP), Raydium (RAY), and Camino

  • The hosts named Aerodrome, Jupiter, Raydium, and Camino as decentralized trading platforms that could benefit from increased activity across their respective ecosystems.
  • No specific metrics, price targets, or individual project comparisons were given.

Takeaways

  • These were mentioned as possible beneficiaries of a broader DeFi recovery and more on-chain trading. The transcript does not establish which platform is best positioned or whether token holders capture the activity’s value.

Pump.fun (PUMP)

  • Pump.fun was included in the discussion of tokens and platforms associated with the “revenue” side of a portfolio barbell.
  • The hosts referred broadly to platforms generating revenue and passing value back to their tokens, but did not provide project-specific details about Pump.fun.

Takeaways

  • The potential investment theme is revenue-producing crypto platforms. Verify whether token holders actually receive value from platform activity; the transcript does not spell out the mechanism for Pump.fun.

Bittensor (TAO), Pearl, Zama, and RCM

  • The hosts discussed AI-related crypto projects, including Pearl, Zama, and RCM, and suggested Pearl’s “verifiable work” approach could challenge Bittensor’s role in AI-related crypto.
  • Zama was mentioned in connection with privacy and AI.
  • These mentions were brief and did not include detailed project fundamentals or valuations. Tickers for Pearl, Zama, and RCM were not stated.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to AI infrastructure, verifiable work, and privacy as areas to research, but it does not provide enough detail to compare these projects or support a specific investment decision.

Robinhood (HOOD) and Robinhood Chain

  • Eric said Robinhood is building on Ethereum and argued that doing so gives it access to existing applications and liquidity, including Uniswap and Lighter.
  • The speakers viewed the tokenization of traditional assets as a potentially significant growth opportunity for Robinhood.
  • Eric tentatively estimated that Robinhood Chain fees might represent $300 million to $500 million in annualized revenue, but explicitly warned that he could be misquoting the figure.
  • The hosts discussed regulatory developments that could make tokenized assets usable as collateral in regulated derivatives markets. They characterized this as potentially important, while noting that implementation and market adoption remain ahead.

Takeaways

  • The investment thesis presented is that tokenization could expand Robinhood’s trading activity and revenue, with Ethereum composability potentially helping it attract liquidity.
  • Treat the $300 million to $500 million estimate as unverified, as Eric himself qualified it. The discussion also raised unresolved questions about token-holder rights, custody, and redemption.

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS)

  • HIMS was discussed as an example of a public company connected to an on-chain meme-token community, referred to in the transcript as Boner.
  • Eric said the HIMS community had been receptive to that community and claimed that on one occasion on-chain trading reached roughly 10% of HIMS stock’s trading volume.
  • He suggested that meme-token communities could act as marketing communities for companies, though this was presented as his theory rather than an established business model.
  • The speakers also discussed tokenized HIMS shares and the possibility that on-chain demand could affect liquidity and trading.

Takeaways

  • The opportunity discussed is broader than HIMS alone: it is the potential interaction between a company’s stock, tokenized shares, and an on-chain community.
  • This remains experimental. The transcript raises questions about how tokenized shares are backed and redeemed, and about the relationship between token prices and the underlying stock.

AMC Entertainment (AMC)

  • AMC’s CEO was described as opposing or expressing concern about tokenized versions of the company’s shares, including concerns about registration and consumer protection.
  • Eric suggested the opposition could reflect concerns about synthetic shares or uncertainty over whether the on-chain tokens are fully backed.
  • The hosts contrasted AMC’s response with HIMS’s more receptive stance toward its associated community.

Takeaways

  • AMC illustrates the regulatory and issuer-acceptance risks of tokenized stocks. The transcript does not establish whether the CEO’s concerns are based on a misunderstanding; it presents that as Eric’s possibility.

NVIDIA (NVDA) and Qualcomm (QCOM)

  • NVIDIA shares were mentioned as among the traditional stocks being tokenized on-chain.
  • The hosts cited an example in which an on-chain asset associated with a much smaller market capitalization reportedly had more daily trading volume than a much larger public company, using Qualcomm as a comparison.
  • No detailed analysis of either company’s stock fundamentals was provided.

Takeaways

  • The investment theme is on-chain access to traditional equities, not a specific view on NVIDIA or Qualcomm as companies.
  • Reported comparisons of on-chain and traditional-market trading volumes are not, by themselves, evidence that tokenized markets are more liquid or that the underlying stocks are mispriced.

Litecoin (LTC)

  • Litecoin was mentioned as receiving notable market attention on the day of the discussion.
  • No specific investment thesis or fundamental analysis was offered.

Takeaways

  • The mention reflects short-term market attention rather than a developed case for investing in LTC.

Boner token and meme-stock tokens

  • Eric described Boner as a meme token associated with HIMS and said its price and the associated stock-token pool could influence one another.
  • He claimed the token had about 20,000 followers and said its community was focused on the stock rising.
  • He argued that major companies could eventually develop their own meme-token communities, but this was his prediction, not an established trend.
  • The discussion highlighted the possibility that meme-token prices could diverge significantly from the underlying stock. Eric said HIMS-related share prices on Robinhood had briefly moved far above the regular stock price before market makers added shares and arbitraged the difference.

Takeaways

  • Meme-stock tokens were presented as a speculative, high-volatility opportunity—not as a substitute for owning the underlying stock.
  • The transcript specifically raises risks around price dislocations, backing, share availability, and unclear redemption rights. The token ticker was not stated.

AI and crypto investment theme

  • The speakers argued that crypto projects may benefit when they improve or contribute to a mainstream narrative such as AI.
  • Examples discussed included Venice, NEAR, Pearl, Bittensor, Zama, and RCM.
  • The hosts noted that AI-related projects had attracted market interest, but offered little project-level analysis beyond the examples above.

Takeaways

  • The actionable theme is to investigate whether a project provides a genuine crypto-specific use case in AI, rather than relying only on the popularity of the AI narrative.
  • The transcript provides no price targets, timelines, or detailed risk analysis for most of the projects mentioned.

Tokenized assets and DeFi

  • The speakers argued that tokenized stocks could be used in on-chain trading, lending, and as collateral, potentially expanding activity for decentralized exchanges and lending protocols.
  • They cited regulatory guidance as a possible step toward allowing tokenized assets and qualifying crypto to serve as collateral in regulated derivatives markets.
  • The hosts viewed this as a reason the long DeFi downturn may be ending, describing it as a 52-month bear market.
  • They also identified uncertainty around custody, shareholder rights, redemption, and whether tokens represent backed shares or synthetic exposure.

Takeaways

  • The broad opportunity is increased on-chain activity if tokenized assets become easier to trade, borrow against, and combine with DeFi applications.
  • This remains dependent on regulation, product design, and adoption. The discussion’s bullish view should be weighed against the explicitly raised uncertainties around backing, rights, and redemption.

Gold, silver, and the portfolio “barbell” theme

  • The hosts described a portfolio framework with “hard money” assets—particularly Bitcoin, Zcash, gold, and silver—on one side, and revenue-oriented crypto assets such as Hyperliquid, Lighter, and Pump.fun on the other.
  • They said this strategy could become crowded and discussed the possibility that market leadership could rotate between major assets and smaller tokens.

Takeaways

  • The framework emphasizes balancing different investment drivers rather than concentrating entirely in one category.
  • It is a discussion framework, not a prescribed allocation. The transcript gives no target weights for gold, silver, or crypto assets.
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Episode Description
Eric Conner says something is happening in crypto he's never seen in 14 years of watching these markets: coins like Zcash and the perp exchanges are decoupling from Bitcoin entirely. The EIP-1559 co-author and OG Ethereum developer explains why he refuses to pick sides between Hyperliquid and Lighter, breaks down the meme-stock trading phenomenon eating into Robinhood's tokenized stocks, and reacts live to major new CFTC guidance that could unlock tokenized assets as collateral. Eric Conner is co-author of Ethereum's EIP-1559 and an OG Ethereum developer and investor who has been active in crypto since 2012. AI Supercycle is Rollup's series on the intersection of AI and crypto, powered by NEAR. 00:00 Intro 02:09 Eric Fumbled Venice At Sub $1 04:10 Own Both Hype And Lighter And Chill 06:13 Eric Sold ETH To Buy Hyperliquid 08:14 Why Eric Stopped Being An ETH Maxi 10:33 Perps Are The Most Obvious Trade Out There 14:24 Tokenized Stocks Will Get Meme Coin'd 18:54 CFTC Staff Clears Tokenized Collateral Live 22:14 ETH Does Not Need A Thesis To Pump 27:49 Robinhood Chain Already $500M Annualized 29:24 Wall Street Has Not Priced Robinhood Chain 35:31 Meme Stock Outpaces Its Own Market Cap 39:23 52 Month DeFi Bear Market Is Over Guest Socials: Eric Conner X: https://x.com/econoar Partners: If you run concentrated liquidity positions you know the grind. Price moves, you're out of range, you're rebalancing at, like, 3am. 1inch Aqua lets you take a different approach. You can stack multiple positions on the same token balance instead of babysitting a dozen pools, and your tokens never leave your wallet. Your liquidity stays awake, so you can catch up on your sleep. Check it out at https://1inch.com/aqua --- Dinari - Over 230 1:1 backed tokenized stocks, ETFs & more with dividends. US-based SEC transfer agent. Available on 5+ chains & via API. https://dinari.com/ --- Space and Time is providing verifiable data infrastructure for onchain finance. A decentralized database, blockchain indexer, and ZK coprocessor in one, giving DeFi protocols,stablecoins, and tokenized assets accurate, provable data. --- Zama is an open source cryptography company that builds state-of-the-art Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) solutions for blockchain. Learn more here: https://www.zama.org/ --- 𝗪𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝘆 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵-𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆, 𝗻𝗼𝗻-𝗯𝗶𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱, 𝗲𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝗴𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺. 𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝘂𝘀 𝗯𝘆 𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗸𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗳𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀: Website: https://therollup.co/ Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1P6ZeYd... Podcast: https://therollup.co/category/podcast Follow us on X: https://www.x.com/therollupco Follow Rob on X: https://x.com/robbieklages Follow Andy on X: https://x.com/andyyy Join our TG group: https://t.me/+TsM1CRpWFgk1NGZh The Rollup Disclosures: https://goodidea.ventures 𝗗𝗜𝗦𝗖𝗟𝗔𝗜𝗠𝗘𝗥: 𝘐𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘯 𝘤𝘳𝘺𝘱𝘵𝘰𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘋𝘦𝘍𝘪 𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘴 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘪𝘯𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬𝘴 𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘭𝘶𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘦𝘤𝘩𝘯𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬, 𝘩𝘶𝘮𝘢𝘯 𝘦𝘳𝘳𝘰𝘳, 𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮 𝘧𝘢𝘪𝘭𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦. 𝘈𝘵 𝘤𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯 𝘱𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘦𝘭, 𝘸𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘯 𝘢 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘴 𝘢 𝘴𝘱𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘰𝘳𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘱, 𝘪𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘸𝘦 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘭𝘸𝘢𝘺𝘴 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘦 𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘳. 𝘞𝘦 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘵𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘯 𝘦𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮, 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘦 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘞𝘦 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘧𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘴 𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘯𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘴𝘰𝘳𝘴.
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