Investors should prioritize Bitcoin (BTC) as a core hedge against global fiat debasement and government spending on AI and defense. Zcash (ZEC) represents a high-conviction privacy play with a 5x price potential over the next year, provided users utilize "shielded" transactions via wallets like Zashi. For exposure to AI-driven commerce, NEAR Protocol (NEAR) offers a 20x asymmetric opportunity as it moves toward becoming deflationary by 2025. Hyperliquid (HYPE) is a top-tier decentralized exchange pick with a specific price target of $150, benefiting from a lack of VC sell-pressure and the ability to trade synthetic traditional assets 24/7. To minimize risk, focus on "fully diluted" assets where early venture capital investors have already finished selling their stakes.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Macro Context: Arthur Hayes views Bitcoin as a hedge against global instability and a beneficiary of "wartime economy" money printing.
• Liquidity Thesis: Hayes argues that governments (US, China, EU) will print money to fund AI capital expenditures (CapEx) and national defense, which will inevitably leak into Bitcoin.
• Price Action: Bitcoin successfully forecasted a "deflationary credit event" earlier in the year, dropping from all-time highs to the $60,000 range before stabilizing.

Takeaways

• Bullish Sentiment: Hayes is "long and strong," viewing Bitcoin as the primary beneficiary of fiat debasement.
• Risk Factor: Watch for shifts in macro liquidity; if governments stop funding AI CapEx with debt, the bullish thesis weakens.

Zcash (ZEC)

• Privacy Thesis: Hayes identifies privacy as the "last 1000x" opportunity. He argues that as AI and governments increase surveillance, cryptographically proven privacy will become essential.
• Protocol Evolution: The "trusted setup" and the 20% team subsidy (founder's reward) are gone, creating a "clean slate" for the asset.
• Institutional Friction: Hayes noted that most brokers refuse to trade Zcash due to its privacy features, which he views as a contrarian bullish signal ("If I can't get it, I want more of it").
• Usage: Recommendation to use Zashi or Zoro wallets for "Shielded" transactions; holding Zcash in transparent form is described as a "shitty version of Bitcoin."

Takeaways

• Core Holding: This is Hayes’s second-largest bag.
• Price Potential: Hayes estimates a 5x potential over the next year.
• Actionable Advice: Use shielded addresses and cold storage (e.g., Keystone) to maintain the asset's core value proposition of privacy.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR)

• Convergence of AI and Privacy: NEAR is positioned as the "execution arm" for AI agents.
• Confidential Intents: A private shard on top of NEAR allows for private trading, transfers, and payroll. This enables users to send assets (like USDT) anonymously.
• Tokenomics: NEAR is one of the few "fully diluted" Layer 1s, meaning there are no massive VC unlocks "dumping" on retail investors. Inflation was halved last November.
• Revenue: The protocol has generated ~$33 million in fees from "Intents," which are used to buy back NEAR tokens.

Takeaways

• Asymmetric Opportunity: Hayes sees a 20x potential for NEAR, though he scales his position smaller than Zcash due to the risk profile.
• Deflationary Goal: Founder Illia Polosukhin targets 2025 for the protocol to become deflationary through increased revenue and further inflation reductions.
• AI Play: NEAR is a bet on "Agentic" commerce—where AI agents hire other agents and settle deals on-chain.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

• Exchange Thesis: Hayes emphasizes that exchanges are the most profitable businesses in crypto. HYPE is viewed as the "golden child" of decentralized exchanges (DEXs).
• Tokenomics: Unlike competitors (dYdX, GMX), HYPE has no VC sales and directs revenue back to token holders.
• Market Expansion: Through "HIP-3," the platform allows permissionless listing of synthetic markets like the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Oil, providing 24/7 price discovery when traditional markets are closed.

Takeaways

• Price Target: Hayes has a specific price target of $150 for HYPE.
• Market Share: The goal is to capture 10-15% of Binance’s perpetual swap volume.
• Utility: Staking HYPE provides fee discounts and the ability to participate in listing new markets.

Investment Themes & Sector Insights

The "Privacy Narrative"

• Privacy is viewed as the "mass adoption enabler." Without it, businesses cannot use crypto for payroll or sensitive supply chain transactions.
• Monero (XMR) was mentioned as a competitor, but Hayes expressed concerns about its ring signatures being potentially de-anonymized by law enforcement.

AI and Labor Displacement

• The Thesis: AI will displace white-collar workers in the West and back-office workers in developing nations.
• Political Risk: Hayes predicts a populist backlash against AI profits. He specifically mentions AOC as a potential 2028 presidential candidate whose platform of "AI taxes" could cause investors to "take chips off the table."

The "Fully Diluted" Advantage

• A major theme for the "sophisticated" era of crypto is avoiding tokens with high "FDV" (Fully Diluted Valuation) and low circulating supply. Investors are favoring older, established projects where VCs have already finished selling their stakes.