SpaceX Disappoints, AI's Free Cash Flow Shrinks, Meta Struggles | The Weekly Wrap
SpaceX Disappoints, AI's Free Cash Flow Shrinks, Meta Struggles | The Weekly Wrap
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Capitalize on Palantir (PLTR) following its massive 156% EPS growth, but watch out for its steep 2026 price-to-earnings multiple of 85 times. Play the indirect artificial intelligence boom through Caterpillar (CAT) as its power and energy division benefits directly from surging data center electricity demands. Exercise caution with SpaceX (SPACE) after its public debut, as high capital expenditures, a lofty 54 times sales valuation, and 911 million newly unlocked insider shares create near-term selling pressure. Buy Eli Lilly (LLY) to capitalize on the lucrative weight-loss drug market, as it continues to decisively outperform Novo Nordisk (NVO). Hold **Arista Networks (ANET) for the long term to capture ongoing artificial intelligence infrastructure spending, but prepare for short-term earnings volatility due to its high valuation.

Detailed Analysis

Palantir (PLTR)

  • Palantir reported powerful results with EPS of $41 cents (up 156% year-over-year) and revenue of $1.93 billion (up 93%), driven by a 149% increase in U.S. commercial segment revenue and 90% growth in U.S. government revenue.
  • The company raised its adjusted income guidance for the year by 10%.
  • The stock rallied 12% after hours following the earnings announcement.
  • The main hesitation highlighted is valuation, with estimated PEs for 2026 and 2027 at 85 times and 60 times, respectively.

Takeaways

  • Palantir's strong performance indicates that the market is beginning to differentiate between software winners with deep enterprise franchises and more vulnerable software companies.
  • Investors should carefully weigh the company's strong fundamental growth against its high forward valuation multiples before making investment decisions.

Caterpillar (CAT)

  • Caterpillar reported strong earnings with EPS of $8.17 (up 73%) and revenue growth of $24%.
  • The growth is being driven by its power and energy division, which manufactures generators, engines, and gas turbines utilized in data centers, effectively positioning it as an indirect AI play.

Takeaways

  • Caterpillar serves as a beneficiary of the broader AI infrastructure build-out due to the high energy and power demands of data centers.

SpaceX (SPACE)

  • SpaceX reported mixed results in its first-ever public earnings report, with revenue hitting $7.8 billion (up 92%) and an EPS loss of $0.09 (beating expectations).
  • Capital expenditures (CapEx) surged to $18.4 billion for the quarter, driven by higher-than-expected spending in its AI unit, with management calling for even higher CapEx ahead.
  • Starlink, described as the company's only profitable business, reached 12 million subscribers, coming in slightly below the expected 12.19 million.
  • The stock dropped double digits after hours; annualized revenue of $31.2 billion against a $1.6 trillion market cap puts the market cap-to-revenue multiple at 54 times, making it expensive.
  • A total of 911 million shares were unlocked from insiders, creating potential near-term supply pressure.
  • Elon Musk has a dedicated following of believers rather than traditional investors, making traditional valuation frameworks difficult to apply.

Takeaways

  • High valuation multiples, surging AI-related capital expenditures, and upcoming insider share unlocks present notable risks for investors.

Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO)

  • Eli Lilly demonstrated clear dominance in the diet drug wars, posting EPS of $8.38 (up 33%).
  • In contrast, Novo Nordisk reported EPS of $4.75 (down 20%) as it attempts to catch up with its new GLP-1 pill without clear signs of closing the performance gap.

Takeaways

  • Eli Lilly remains the clear market leader in the GLP-1 weight-loss drug market based on recent earnings execution.

Arista Networks (ANET)

  • Arista Networks reported an EPS of $1.02 (up 40% year-over-year) and revenue of $3 billion (up 12%), beating expectations and prompting a 5% stock increase following a 45% year-to-date gain.
  • The company sells cloud networking equipment and is a major beneficiary of AI data-centric construction alongside competitor Cisco.
  • The speaker holds the stock for the long term and emphasizes that attempting to trade it quarter-to-quarter is unpredictable due to its high valuation multiple and sensitivity to forward guidance.

Takeaways

  • Arista Networks is well-positioned as a long-term beneficiary of AI infrastructure spending, though short-term price volatility should be expected around earnings due to high valuation multiples.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

  • AMD reported fine actual results with an EPS of $1.66 (up 246%), but guidance only met expectations rather than beating them.
  • The stock's performance on the print was negative as it attempts to compete with NVIDIA in the semiconductor space.

Takeaways

  • Competing directly with NVIDIA is a tough challenge, and meeting rather than exceeding expectations can lead to negative short-term stock reactions for high-growth semiconductor peers.

Walt Disney Company (DIS)

  • Disney reported an EPS of $2.06 (up 28%), beating expectations due to strength in streaming and parks, while revenue of $25 billion (up 7%) represented a slight miss.
  • Despite solid earnings, the stock has traded flat around the $100 level for well over a decade.

Takeaways

  • Solid operational metrics in streaming and parks do not automatically translate to long-term share price appreciation, as demonstrated by the stock's decade-long stagnation.
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Episode Description
Sign up for The Real Eisman Playbook Premium at https://realeismanplaybook.substack.com/ On this episode of The Weekly Wrap, Steve Eisman breaks down the week in markets, including SpaceX's highly anticipated earnings, the growing impact of AI spending on free cash flow, and why Meta continues to struggle while Palantir, Microsoft, and Amazon tell a different story. He also examines the collapse of the Situational Awareness hedge fund, private credit, and the biggest earnings reports of the week. Plus, Steve shares his personal TV recommendations. My full list of TV show recommendations: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NC6nxggLE_6FdaVjcB3Gw_DosbAZWZ3w/view?usp=sharing 00:00 - Intro 02:36 - Iran War Updates 02:28 - The Demise of the Situational Awareness Hedge Fund 06:35 - Capex & Free Cash Flow 07:35 - Private Credit 08:13 - Palantir 09:55 - Apollo 10:30 - Caterpillar 10:56 - SpaceX 13:05 - Lilly & Novo 13:30 - Arista 14:31 - AMD 14:50 - Disney 15:16 - TV Recommendations 16:51 - Outro Watch my Financial Literacy Masterclass video here: https://youtu.be/u8chA7LC8lU Watch my Masterclass on the 2008 Financial Crisis here: https://youtu.be/4bSCdJTbR8I Subscribe 👉🏻https://www.youtube.com/@RealEismanPlaybook?sub_confirmation=1 Connect with Steve Eisman and access all things The Eisman Playbook: 🌐 https://linktr.ee/realeismanplaybook → Follow on socials, watch episodes, and get the latest updates — all in one place. Disclaimer: The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in ‘The Eisman Playbook' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money you can afford to lose. Derivatives are unsuitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell, or retain any specific investment or service. Copyright ©2025 Steve Eisman Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
About The Real Eisman Playbook
The Real Eisman Playbook

The Real Eisman Playbook

By Steve Eisman

The Real Eisman Playbook is your front-row seat to the insights, strategies, and perspectives of legendary investor Steve Eisman. Best known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, Steve brings his sharp analysis and no-nonsense approach to dissecting the markets, global economy, and investment trends shaping the future. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just curious about how the financial world really works, The Eisman Playbook delivers the knowledge you need to stay ahead. Tune in for expert commentary, candid conversations, and actionable takeaways from one of Wall Street’s most influential minds. Follow Us on Social Media!