Why Trump’s War Week Didn’t Break Markets | Prof G Markets
Why Trump’s War Week Didn’t Break Markets | Prof G Markets
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider Google (GOOGL) as a top AI investment, as its partnership to integrate the Gemini model into Apple's ecosystem validates its technological lead and opens a major new revenue stream. Apple (AAPL) is also a strong long-term AI play, positioning itself as the essential "tollbooth" for AI models seeking access to its billion-plus users. Investors should watch Disney (DIS) closely, as its valuable assets and underperforming stock make it a prime takeover target predicted for 2026. For a hedge against geopolitical risk, consider industrial metals like silver and copper, which also have strong demand from the AI and green energy sectors. Finally, be cautious with Bitcoin (BTC), as it has failed to perform as a safe-haven asset during recent instability, behaving more like a high-risk tech stock.

Detailed Analysis

Federal Reserve & Market Stability

  • The podcast highlights the importance of an independent Federal Reserve for a strong and robust economy. Political pressure to lower interest rates can lead to runaway inflation, which destabilizes the economy.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell is portrayed as an "American hero" who successfully navigated the post-COVID economy.
    • He executed the most aggressive interest rate hikes in history to bring inflation down from 9% to 2.3% without causing a recession, a feat described as "threading a needle in space."
    • He has garnered widespread support from both political parties, major bank CEOs like Jamie Dimon, and even retail traders on Wall Street Bets, who see him as a stabilizing force.
  • The market's reaction to political pressure on the Fed was telling: after a brief dip, the S&P and NASDAQ reversed losses and hit record highs, signaling confidence that the Fed's independence would be maintained.

Takeaways

  • The market places a high value on the stability and independence of the Federal Reserve. Actions that threaten this independence are viewed as a major risk to the U.S. economy and the status of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency.
  • The broad-based support for Jerome Powell suggests that institutional stability is currently favored by investors over political disruption, which is a bullish long-term signal for U.S. markets.

Precious & Industrial Metals (Gold, Silver, Copper)

  • Metals have seen a strong rally in 2026, with gold up 72%, silver up 187%, and copper up 36% from a year ago. Other metals like tin (+80%), lithium (+112%), and platinum (+147%) are also up significantly.
  • The primary driver is geopolitical instability, which positions these metals as "risk-off" assets or safe havens for capital during uncertain times.
  • A secondary driver is strong industrial demand for these metals in high-growth sectors.
    • Silver is used in anything with an on-off switch, including circuit boards, EVs, batteries, and solar panels.
    • Copper is critical for EVs, power grids, wind turbines, and AI infrastructure like data centers and cooling systems.

Takeaways

  • Metals are currently benefiting from two powerful tailwinds: their role as a hedge against geopolitical risk and their essential use in fast-growing industries like AI and green energy.
  • While metals are performing well in the short term due to global conflict, the podcast notes that historically, stocks tend to perform well over the long term (12+ months) even during periods of war. Investors should be cautious about abandoning stocks entirely for metals based on short-term fears.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The podcast presents a bearish case for Bitcoin's role as a hedge against instability.
  • Despite significant geopolitical conflict and a rally in precious metals, Bitcoin is down 1% on the year.
  • This performance contradicts the "digital gold" narrative, which suggests Bitcoin should act as a safe-haven asset during times of crisis. The speaker notes that "every time when it's Bitcoin's time to perform... it continues to flop."

Takeaways

  • The investment thesis that Bitcoin serves the same purpose as gold as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk has not been proven in practice.
  • Investors should be cautious about allocating capital to Bitcoin under the assumption that it will protect their portfolio during market downturns or global crises. It behaves more like a high-risk tech asset than a stable store of value.

Sequence (SQNS)

  • The host, Scott Galloway, shared a personal story of a failed investment in a "Bitcoin treasury company" called Sequence (SQNS).
  • He bought shares in the IPO at $14 and sold them just 90 days later at $4.50 to harvest a tax loss, representing a 75% loss.
  • The co-host referred to these types of crypto-related treasury companies as "total, total bullshit."

Takeaways

  • This serves as a cautionary tale about the extreme risks and volatility associated with speculative, small-cap companies in the cryptocurrency sector.
  • Investors should perform extensive due diligence and be aware of the potential for rapid and significant losses in this space.

Google (GOOGL)

  • The podcast is very bullish on Google, highlighting that the stock is up 70% in the past 12 months.
  • The partnership with Apple to use Google's Gemini AI model to power an upgraded Siri is seen as a massive strategic victory.
    • Rumors suggest Apple will pay Google $1 billion per year for this deal.
    • This validates the quality and power of the Gemini model against competitors.

Takeaways

  • Google is solidifying its position as a dominant force in the AI race. The Apple partnership provides both a significant new revenue stream and a powerful endorsement of its technology.
  • Having access to Apple's billion-plus high-value users through this deal gives Google a major advantage in the distribution and adoption of its AI services.

Apple (AAPL)

  • Apple's AI strategy is described as playing the long game by fostering a competitive marketplace rather than building its own foundational model.
  • By partnering with both Google (Gemini) and OpenAI (ChatGPT), Apple ensures that multiple major players will have to compete—and eventually pay—for access to its valuable iOS ecosystem.
  • The rumor that Apple is paying Google $1 billion while paying OpenAI nothing suggests Apple is strategically supporting Google's Gemini to prevent OpenAI from becoming too dominant.

Takeaways

  • Apple is positioning itself to be the ultimate tollbooth of the AI era. Instead of bearing the massive costs of developing a leading AI model, it aims to profit by charging for access to its unparalleled user base.
  • This strategy makes Apple a key beneficiary of the AI boom, regardless of which specific model ultimately "wins."

Anthropic (Private Company)

  • Anthropic is presented as a formidable competitor to OpenAI and a potential winner in the AI startup race.
  • The company's key advantage is its strong focus on the enterprise (B2B) market.
    • 80% of Anthropic's revenue comes from enterprise customers.
    • Its new product, Claude Cowork, generated significant buzz for its practical business applications, such as organizing calendars, tracking meetings, and automating action items.

Takeaways

  • Anthropic's enterprise-first strategy is viewed as a more viable and profitable business model than a consumer-focused approach.
  • For investors with access to private markets, Anthropic is highlighted as a company that could "dethrone OpenAI" due to its superior business strategy and traction with high-value corporate clients.

OpenAI (Private Company)

  • While OpenAI's ChatGPT is the current leader in brand recognition and usage (5.8 billion monthly visits), its business model is facing serious questions.
  • The company is struggling to monetize its massive user base, with only 5% of users paying for the service.
  • It is lagging behind Anthropic in the lucrative enterprise market, where only 30% of its revenue originates. An expert quoted on the show stated OpenAI faces a choice between "massive enterprise adoption or bankruptcy."

Takeaways

  • OpenAI's high valuation may not be justified given its challenges in monetization and its weak position in the enterprise market.
  • The company is at a critical inflection point. Without a clear and successful pivot to enterprise customers or another viable monetization strategy (like advertising), its long-term dominance is at risk.

Disney (DIS)

  • The podcast makes a strong, specific prediction that Disney will be put in play in 2026.
  • The rationale is based on several factors:
    • Underperforming Stock: DIS stock has been flat over the last 10 years, massively underperforming the S&P 500.
    • "Breakable" Structure: The company has a simple corporate structure with a single class of stock, no staggered board, and no poison pill, making it vulnerable to an activist investor or a hostile takeover.
    • Incredible Assets: The intrinsic value of its IP (Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar) and its Parks business is immense and could be unlocked by breaking up the company.

Takeaways

  • Disney is identified as a prime target for a major M&A or activist event.
  • Investors should watch for signs of activist interest (like Nelson Peltz's previous involvement) or takeover rumors, as such an event could cause significant and rapid movement in the stock price.
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Video Description
This week on Prof G Markets, Scott Galloway and Ed Elson unpack President Trump’s investigation into Jerome Powell, with Scott explaining why he believes the goal is to sideline Powell entirely, not just remove him as Fed chair. Ed shares which part of the public’s support for Powell surprised him most. They then dig into the surge in metals in light of Trump’s moves on Venezuela, Greenland, and Iran. And finally, they break down the week’s biggest AI headlines and how they’re reshaping the power dynamics in the AI race. Subscribe to our Markets Newsletter! https://www.profgmarkets.com/subscribe Order Notes On Being A Man now! https://amzn.to/4nl4VKo Timestamps: 00:00 - Today's number 01:05 - Today's episode 07:42 - Powell Investigation 27:00 - Ad break 30:37 - Metals Surge 55:21 - Ad break 57:30 - AI Update 01:15:33 - Week ahead 01:15:51 - Prediction 01:18:37 - Credits Follow Scott on Instagram: https://instagram.com/profgalloway Follow Ed on Instagram and X: https://instagram.com/ed_elson_/ https://twitter.com/edels0n Subscribe to Prof G Markets on Spotify: https://links.profgmedia.com/markets-spotify Got a question for Prof G? Get answers on TikTok: https://links.profgmedia.com/tiktok Want more Prof G? Check out everything we're up to at: https://links.profgmedia.com/home Note: We may earn revenue from some of the links we provide. #business #news #tech #financemotivation #stockmarket #profg #scottgalloway #edelson #profgmarkets #ai #earnings #stocks #inflation #investmentstrategies #investment #investing #gdp #tariffs #2026 #banking #predictions
About The Prof G Pod – Scott Galloway
The Prof G Pod – Scott Galloway

The Prof G Pod – Scott Galloway

By @theprofgpod

NYU Professor, best-selling author, business leader and serial entrepreneur Scott Galloway cuts through the biggest stories in ...