Investors should prioritize Anthropic as the primary AI IPO target this fall, as its 40x revenue multiple offers significantly better relative value than SpaceX’s current 110x valuation. Avoid chasing SpaceX at its current $2 trillion market cap following its recent $750 billion correction, and instead wait for a stabilized entry point. Prepare for potential selling pressure on NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, and Meta, as institutional funds may liquidate these holdings to free up capital for upcoming AI listings. Exercise caution with Bitcoin and OpenAI through year-end, as both face liquidity drains and internal financial restructuring that could lead to further price declines. To mitigate "1999-style" bubble risks, rebalance portfolios away from concentrated U.S. tech and toward European markets and fixed income for better risk-adjusted returns.

SpaceX

• Post-IPO Performance: After debuting at $135 and peaking around $210–$230, the stock experienced a significant correction. It saw a one-day wipeout of $400 billion and a total loss of nearly $750 billion in market cap within two weeks.
• Valuation Context: Despite the drop, the company maintains a market cap of approximately $2 trillion, remaining above its initial IPO price.
• Market Impact: The "weak" aftermarket performance may cause underwriters (like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan) to be more cautious regarding the timing of other high-profile AI IPOs.

Takeaways

• Volatility Warning: Even "success stories" can see 30%+ drawdowns shortly after listing. Investors should be wary of the "first-day pop" (engineered scarcity) and avoid chasing peaks.
• Valuation Benchmarks: SpaceX went public at roughly 110x revenue. This sets a high bar for other private tech giants looking to go public.

OpenAI

• IPO Outlook: While reports suggest a delay until 2027 due to market volatility, Galloway believes the delay is actually due to internal financial issues.
• Financial Health: Mention of "declining growth" and massive CapEx (Capital Expenditure) commitments. Galloway characterizes the company as a "drunk spender" that needs a "serious cost reduction effort" before going public.
• Valuation: Currently valued at approximately $850 billion in confidential filings.

Takeaways

• Wait-and-See Approach: Potential investors should look for signs of "house cleaning" or cost-cutting measures over the next six months as a signal that the company is preparing for a public debut.
• Momentum Shift: There is a perceived shift in momentum away from OpenAI toward its competitor, Anthropic.

Anthropic

• IPO Timing: The Wall Street Journal projects a potential IPO as early as this fall.
• The "Flippening": Anthropic is currently valued at $965 billion in confidential filings, notably higher than OpenAI’s $850 billion.
• Relative Value: Compared to SpaceX’s 110x revenue multiple, Anthropic’s 40x revenue multiple may appear more attractive to institutional investors.

Takeaways

• Primary AI Target: Anthropic is positioned as the likely leader of the upcoming AI IPO wave, potentially benefiting from OpenAI's perceived lack of business discipline.

Big Tech (NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Apple)

• Liquidity Drain: Analysts suggest that to fund allocations for massive new IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic), large funds may be forced to sell existing holdings in NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, and Meta.
• Recent Performance: Apple saw its worst trading day of 2026 following price increase announcements. Alphabet and Meta have also seen recent drops of 7% and 5%, respectively.

Takeaways

• Selling Pressure: The arrival of "New AI" stocks (OpenAI/Anthropic) could create a "crowding out" effect, putting downward pressure on the "Magnificent Seven" as investors reallocate capital.

Bitcoin (BTC) / Crypto

• Sentiment: Bearish. Galloway predicts further stress for the remainder of the year.
• Capital Flight: Investors who "piled into crypto" for innovation are expected to "pile out" to find liquidity for the upcoming AI IPOs.

Takeaways

• Correlation Risk: Crypto is viewed as a source of funds for AI investments. If the AI IPO wave gains steam, expect continued selling pressure on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

Investment Themes & Strategy

• The "1999" Scenario: The current market concentration and valuation levels mirror the 1999 tech bubble. Historical data suggests that when a few IPOs represent ~5% of the total market (as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic would), a 40% market decline could follow over the subsequent years.
• Diversification 2.0: Being in an S&P 500 index fund is no longer "diversified" because 10 companies make up 40% of the index.
• Geographic Shift: Galloway suggests looking at European markets, which have been "left for dead" and offer better value than the over-concentrated U.S. tech market.
• Fixed Income: With higher interest rates, fixed income (bonds) is once again a viable asset class for risk-adjusted returns.

Takeaways

• Avoid Market Timing: Do not try to time the "top." Instead, rebalance portfolios that are too concentrated in U.S. tech.
• Focus on Low-Cost Index Funds: Despite the volatility, the long-term recommendation remains low-cost indexing, but with a heavier emphasis on global diversification and asset class variety (bonds, international stocks) as you age.