AI Agents Could Break the Banking System  — With Ethan Mollick
AI Agents Could Break the Banking System — With Ethan Mollick
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

The discussion provides no high-conviction buy or sell call, price target, or timeframe for NVDA, GOOGL/GOOG, or META. Treat private AI valuations and claims of profitability with caution: OpenAI and Anthropic face uncertain training costs, organizational risks, and difficult-to-assess economics. Monitor banks for signs that AI agents are making deposits less sticky, but no specific bank trade was identified. For AI exposure, assess whether companies can turn adoption into durable gains in service or productivity, while tracking data-center financing and electricity costs.

Detailed Analysis

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • NVIDIA was mentioned in a hypothetical scenario where it might put GPUs in an iPhone. Ethan Mollick said capable models could run on phones, but he did not expect phone-based models to match frontier models on complex, multi-step tasks.
  • He did not view on-device AI as an existential threat to frontier-model providers, because complex work benefits from the higher accuracy of leading models.

Takeaways

  • The discussion supports a distinction between on-device AI and the computing power needed for advanced AI services; it does not establish that either will be the better investment.
  • No NVIDIA price target or specific recommendation was given.

Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG)

  • Google was described as having produced a leading model twice in recent years. Mollick said its model was good and that Google was catching up, while noting it did not yet have all the surrounding tools and services that make AI models useful.

Takeaways

  • Google’s opportunity, as presented, is not just model quality but the ability to build useful products and services around its models.
  • The conversation offered no valuation view, price target, or recommendation on Alphabet shares.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • Meta’s Muse was discussed as a personal AI agent. Mollick described it as a more accessible way to try agents, while cautioning that its underlying model was less powerful than the model behind OpenAI’s Dot and could make more errors.
  • The hosts also discussed Instagram’s highly effective recommendation system. Mollick said AI-generated, personalized media could intensify engagement, while raising concerns about users retreating into individually tailored content.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to potential value in personal agents and recommendation systems, but it also highlights risks around errors, privacy, and the effects of highly personalized content.
  • These product observations are not a forecast of Meta’s financial performance, and no investment recommendation was given.

OpenAI (Private) and Anthropic (Private)

  • Mollick characterized both companies as having access to powerful technology and capable researchers, while also facing the challenges of rapidly scaled startups, including internal conflict, mission creep, and financial complexity.
  • He said frontier-model businesses are difficult to value conventionally: inference may be profitable, but training costs make overall profitability less clear.
  • The host referred to possible $2 trillion IPOs; Mollick did not endorse that figure. He stressed that it is difficult to judge how much to value these companies as ordinary businesses versus bets on future AI capabilities.
  • Mollick also cited geopolitical and security concerns: model weights could be copied if obtained, and competition over advanced AI is intense.
  • He said companies may be profitable on inference but are not necessarily profitable once training costs are included.

Takeaways

  • Treat claims about AI-company revenue, adjusted profitability, or potential IPO valuations with caution; the discussion emphasized unresolved costs and unusually difficult valuation questions.
  • For public-market investors, the conversation did not identify a clear winner between OpenAI and Anthropic or provide a direct way to invest in either private company.
  • Risks specifically raised include high training costs, organizational instability, security and geopolitical exposure, and uncertainty about how quickly AI capabilities translate into durable business value.

Banks and the Financial Services Sector

  • Mollick said AI agents could make it inexpensive for consumers to compare accounts and move money to higher-yield options. He noted that many people leave money in lower-yield savings accounts partly because they do not pay someone to move it.
  • He said that, at sufficient scale, agents moving deposits could threaten aspects of the banking system built around customer inertia. He cautioned that he would not trust agents with money at present.
  • More broadly, he expects companies may need their own agents to handle growing volumes of customer requests and negotiations from consumers’ agents.

Takeaways

  • A possible risk to banks is reduced deposit stickiness if agents make it easier for customers to seek better rates. This was presented as a potential systemic effect, not a near-term forecast or a prediction about any specific bank.
  • Investors following financial firms can monitor how customer-facing AI changes account switching, service costs, and the competition for deposits.
  • The discussion gave no specific bank names, price targets, or investment recommendations.

AI Infrastructure and Data Centers

  • Mollick said AI’s value may extend well beyond the companies building the models, because low-cost intelligence could change how businesses operate across the economy.
  • He specifically said he could not determine whether the debt-financing model for data centers is problematic. He also described AI-company economics as difficult to assess because training remains expensive.
  • Electricity was identified as a real concern associated with AI; water use was described as less significant than some public discussion suggests.

Takeaways

  • The conversation supports looking beyond AI model developers to infrastructure and businesses adopting AI, but it does not establish which parts of the AI supply chain will capture the most value.
  • Data-center financing, training costs, and electricity needs are issues to track when assessing AI infrastructure investments.
  • No infrastructure stock, price target, or specific recommendation was named.

AI Adoption Across Industries

  • Mollick argued that AI may transform jobs rather than simply eliminate them. He described coding as already changing substantially, while saying that evidence on employment effects remains mixed.
  • He identified customer service as an area showing early signs of vulnerability. He said medicine and coding had not shown the same kind of job-replacement effects discussed in the interview.
  • He suggested that personal agents could make tasks such as negotiating bills, canceling subscriptions, and handling customer-service interactions much easier. Businesses may respond with agents of their own.
  • He cited an example in which Kenyan entrepreneurs using GPT-4 advice achieved 18% profitability. He presented it as an example of AI advice helping people who otherwise might lack access to it—not as an investment return.

Takeaways

  • Potential investment implications may extend to companies that successfully use AI to improve services or expand what workers can accomplish, not just firms that develop models.
  • Customer-service businesses may face pressure as consumers use agents to handle routine interactions, although the interview did not predict specific company outcomes.
  • Mollick emphasized that adoption requires organizational changes; simply generating more code, presentations, or other output does not necessarily create business value.

Education and Human Capital

  • Mollick argued that universities could remain important because they provide teaching, assessment, and verification—functions he believes become more valuable as AI changes how people learn and work.
  • He raised a concern that AI could weaken informal workplace training: junior employees may use AI to complete work without learning, while managers may have less incentive to train them.
  • He also said AI can support tutoring when it challenges a learner rather than simply supplying answers.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggests potential change in education, workplace training, and assessment, but it does not identify specific investable companies or predict which institutions will benefit.
  • Investors assessing education-related businesses can distinguish tools that support learning and evaluation from tools that mainly automate task completion.

Overall Investment Perspective

  • Mollick’s central investment point was to look beyond whether to invest in a particular AI company and consider what may change when intelligence becomes widely available at low cost.
  • He said AI capabilities are advancing, but the gap between what systems can do and how organizations use them remains large. He also cautioned that the technology’s “jagged frontier” means AI can perform some tasks well and others poorly.
  • The discussion identified risks including uncertain company economics, training and infrastructure costs, liability and safety gaps, security concerns, and uneven effects on jobs and industries.

Takeaways

  • Consider AI exposure across both technology providers and businesses adopting the technology, while recognizing that the discussion did not establish which will be the best investments.
  • Assess whether a company can turn AI capability into durable outcomes—such as better service or expanded capacity—rather than simply producing more output.
  • No broad market forecast, price targets, or explicit buy or sell recommendations were given.
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Video Description
Ethan Mollick, Wharton professor and author of Coexistence: The Next Phase of AI, joins Scott Galloway to discuss how AI is changing work, education, and the skills we need to stay valuable. He explains the four advantages worth developing and how to tell whether AI is helping you learn or doing your thinking for you. They also explore why AI could disrupt internships before universities, how personal agents could change the way we negotiate and spend, and why replacing workers may backfire for companies. Plus, listener questions on young people’s AI backlash and using ChatGPT to navigate relationship disagreements. Check out Ethan’s new book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/813026/co-existence-by-ethan-mollick/ Follow Ethan: https://x.com/emollick Timestamps 00:00 - In This Episode 00:51 - How do you write about AI when it’s always evolving? 02:02 - How much has AI changed since 2024? 02:51 - Could local chips on our phones make the frontier labs obsolete? 04:12 - Will the market split between premium and open weight models? 05:39 - What are the key advantages humans still have over AI? 07:12 - Which jobs are actually vulnerable to AI? 09:07 - When is AI use healthy and when is it a crutch? 10:26 - How has the “jagged frontier” of AI changed? 11:36 - What will AI in the workplace actually look like in the future? 13:14 - Will AI create or destroy more jobs? 14:54 - Are AI companies responsible for what their models do? 17:45 - Have AI executives faced any real consequences for things going wrong? 19:42 - Ad Break 23:09 - What do Muse and Dots say about where AI is headed? 25:14 - Which industries will move to agent-to-agent negotiations? 28:27 - How are your students using AI? 30:03 - What will AI do to higher education? 31:39 - Is academic tenure under threat? 34:11 - What is your approach to letting your kids use AI? 38:11 - Ad Break 41:25 - Which AI is best for which tasks? 43:48 - Have you found any key unlocks with AI? 46:10 - Where do OpenAI and Anthropic currency stand? 48:37 - What’s your advice for navigating this next phase of AI? 51:04 - Is young people’s skepticism of AI justified? 53:17 - Is there a productive role for AI in a relationship? 54:37 - What happens when AI can program our attention? 57:18 - What makes you hopeful about AI? Prof G has merch! Shop here to see our latest: https://links.profgmedia.com/merch-pgc Please support this channel by subscribing here: https://links.profgmedia.com/youtube-... Want more Prof G? Check out everything we're up to at https://links.profgmedia.com/home #ProfGMedia #ProfGConversations #ProfG #ScottGalloway #Politics #Economy #Tech #Culture #AI #Business #Leadership #Strategy #Innovation #Podcast #Interview #Insights #Culture
About The Prof G Pod – Scott Galloway
The Prof G Pod – Scott Galloway

The Prof G Pod – Scott Galloway

By @theprofgpod

NYU Professor, best-selling author, business leader and serial entrepreneur Scott Galloway cuts through the biggest stories in ...