How To Invest In OpenAI and Anthropic Before They Go Public | Ankur Nagpal
How To Invest In OpenAI and Anthropic Before They Go Public | Ankur Nagpal
Podcast43 min 37 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Allocate 10-20% of your portfolio to private markets to capture growth from companies staying private longer, but only after securing your core holdings in low-cost index funds. For immediate exposure to high-growth firms like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, consider the USVC fund which allows non-accredited investors to participate with as little as $500. Monitor Anthropic closely as a high-conviction candidate for a near-term IPO, while shifting focus toward "hard tech" sectors like robotics and energy infrastructure. Maximize "Tax Alpha" by utilizing QSBS for potential $0 federal capital gains on startup investments held for five years and prioritizing Solo 401k contributions if self-employed. Avoid high-fee "SPV of SPVs" and instead use direct indexing or treasury money market funds to harvest tax losses and eliminate state-level interest taxes.

Detailed Analysis

The following investment insights are extracted from the conversation between Anthony Pompliano and Ankur Nagpal (GP of USVC and former founder of Teachable) regarding the evolution of private market investing and the democratization of venture capital.


Private Market Investing (Venture Capital)

The discussion highlights a significant shift in how wealth is created in the U.S., noting that companies are staying private longer (averaging 13 years before an IPO). This shift has historically locked the general public out of the "economic boon" of sectors like AI.

  • Asymmetric Bets: Private markets are viewed as a place for "asymmetric bets"—investments where the potential upside is significantly higher than the downside.
  • The "Index" Approach: Nagpal argues that picking individual early-stage startups is a "crapshoot." Success in venture capital typically comes from a high sample size (investing in 300 companies rather than 3), where 10-15% of deals drive the majority of returns.
  • Adverse Selection Risk: The average investor often faces "adverse selection," meaning they only get access to deals that professional VCs have already passed on, unless they are deeply plugged into tech hubs like San Francisco or New York.

Takeaways

  • Portfolio Allocation: Private equity should only be a "small sleeve" (e.g., 10-20%) of a portfolio once the majority of assets are secured in low-cost index funds.
  • Focus on Managers for Early Stage: For early-stage investing, it is often safer to back experienced fund managers rather than trying to pick individual "seed" companies.
  • Direct Investing for Late Stage: Individual company picking is more viable in the "late stage" (Series C and beyond) when there is more data and institutional leads have already priced the round.

USVC (Venture Capital Fund)

USVC is a new type of "public access" venture capital fund designed to give non-accredited investors exposure to high-growth private companies.

  • Accessibility: Open to any U.S. resident with as little as $500.
  • Structure: It is a "tender offer fund." Unlike traditional VC funds that lock money for 10+ years, USVC aims to offer liquidity every quarter (up to 5% of the fund).
  • Valuation: Shares are bought and sold at NAV (Net Asset Value), preventing the massive premiums or discounts often seen in publicly traded private equity ETFs (like the Destiny Tech100).
  • Current Holdings: The fund currently has exposure to major names including SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Mercury, and Sierra.

Takeaways

  • Liquidity Warning: While quarterly liquidity is a goal, it is not guaranteed. Investors should only use "patient capital" they don't need for several years.
  • Avoid "SPV of SPVs": Nagpal warns against "dirty" market structures where multiple layers of fees are added. USVC has a policy against buying into multi-layered Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) to avoid hidden costs and potential fraud.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Sector

The transcript suggests that AI is no longer a standalone "category" but a fundamental layer of all future technology.

  • Frontier Labs: There is a high probability that at least one major AI lab (like Anthropic or OpenAI) will go public in the near future.
  • "Hard Tech" Trend: There is a shift away from simple "AI-wrapper" software (like an AI CRM) toward companies solving physical problems, energy crises, and building foundation models.
  • Economic Sentiment: The general public's skepticism toward AI may stem from a lack of financial participation in its growth.

Takeaways

  • Watch for IPOs: Keep a close eye on Anthropic; Nagpal suggests they could be one of the fastest companies to go public in recent history.
  • Look Beyond Software: Investment opportunities are moving toward "physical AI," robotics, and the energy infrastructure required to power AI.

Tax Alpha Strategies

Nagpal emphasizes "Tax Alpha"—increasing total returns by being highly efficient with the U.S. tax code.

  • QSBS (Qualified Small Business Stock): One of the largest tax breaks in the U.S. If you hold stock in a qualifying C-Corp for 5 years, you can potentially pay $0 in federal capital gains tax on up to $15 million in gains.
  • Solo 401k: Described as the "most powerful retirement account in America" for self-employed individuals, allowing for up to a $72,000 tax deduction.
  • Treasury Money Market Funds: For residents of high-tax states like New York, investing in Treasuries instead of high-yield savings accounts can eliminate local and state taxes on interest.
  • Direct Indexing: A strategy that mimics an index fund but allows the investor to own individual stocks, enabling "tax-loss harvesting" to offset other capital gains.

Takeaways

  • Bifurcate Income: Business owners should consider an S-Corp structure to reduce self-employment taxes.
  • Stack Benefits: Use tax-advantaged accounts (Roth IRA, HSA, 401k) to their maximum before seeking "alpha" in risky private markets.
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Episode Description
Ankur Nagpal is the GP of USVC, a publicly accessible venture capital fund. In this conversation, we break down how retail investors can now access private markets like OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX for as little as $500, and the controversy around USVC's Anduril investment, portfolio strategy, QSBS, tax alpha, and what it means to build wealth in America.  ==================== Looking for a better place to trade? BloFin gives traders access to deep liquidity, advanced futures products for crypto AND TradFi assets, fast execution, and a clean, intuitive interface—all in one platform. To celebrate their partnership with us, they're giving away $100,000 in Deposit & Trade Rewards. Deposit, trade, and earn rewards based on your activity during the campaign. Check them out at (https://partner.blofin.com/d/Pomp). ==================== BitcoinIRA: Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Take 3 minutes to open your account & get connected to a team of IRA specialists that will guide you through every step of the process. Go to lp.bitcoinira.com/after-crypto to win up to $4,000 in rewards. ==================== Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for free. No catch. No hidden fees. Just smarter trading. ==================== 0:00 - Intro 1:07 - The case for & against private market investing 9:27 - Inside USVC's fund structure (open to anyone with $500) 12:59 - What's in the USVC portfolio right now 14:44 - The Anduril SPV controversy explained 19:38 - Buying out LP stakes in venture funds 23:42 - Private markets vs S&P 25:34 - Lessons from AngelList's data on portfolio construction  30:44 - Why AI is no longer just a category & due diligence  34:16 - Biggest risks & tax alpha with USVC 39:22 - Sticking to the plan amid market change 40:43 - Working with Naval and what America means to Ankur
About The Pomp Podcast
The Pomp Podcast

The Pomp Podcast

By Anthony Pompliano

Host Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano talks to the most interesting people in business, finance, and Bitcoin. From billionaires to cultural icons, Pomp helps you get smarter every day.