Bitcoin Beats Stocks for the Next 5 Years? | Jordi Visser
Bitcoin Beats Stocks for the Next 5 Years? | Jordi Visser
Podcast1 hr 2 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider Bitcoin (BTC) only as a volatile, long-term diversifier; watch the $73,000–$74,000 area as a technical level, not a guaranteed floor.
  • For a more tactical opportunity, consider AI infrastructure selectively over the next two to three years: the theme may still outperform, but expect volatility and weigh financing, valuation, and execution risks.
  • Avoid treating low P/E ratios in Nvidia (NVDA) or Micron (MU) as automatic buy signals; the discussion offers no specific price targets or clear buy catalysts for individual stocks.
  • Gold (GLD) could rebound if liquidity improves and real-yield or dollar pressures ease, but that view is conditional and no price target was provided.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Visser is bullish on Bitcoin’s longer-term prospects relative to many public companies, arguing that it could benefit from growth in tokenization and agentic commerce over the next few years.
  • He sees Bitcoin as less exposed than large public companies to government intervention and business disruption from AI, and as a possible destination for investment amid pressure on traditional assets.
  • He said Bitcoin’s spot ETF shares had reached new highs even though Bitcoin was well below its own all-time high, which he interpreted as continued interest from wealth managers.
  • He expects Bitcoin may remain correlated with riskier growth assets, particularly the Nasdaq, while potentially delivering stronger returns. His example of Bitcoin gaining 50% while the Nasdaq gains 10% was illustrative, not a forecast.
  • In his technical analysis, he described a correction toward the 200-day moving average, around the $73–74 area. He presented this as a level to watch, not a guaranteed floor.

Takeaways

  • The discussion supports considering Bitcoin as a potential long-term diversification asset, not as a low-risk substitute for stocks or cash.
  • Visser’s case depends partly on future growth in crypto-related activity and improved liquidity conditions. Bitcoin remains volatile and may continue moving with riskier markets.
  • Treat the cited technical level as a market observation, not a price target or assurance that losses will stop there.

Crypto Ecosystem and Tokenization

  • Visser expects tokenization and agentic commerce to develop over the next two years and believes this growth could benefit Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem.
  • He also noted that banks and wealth managers have become more willing to offer Bitcoin exposure, while arguing that investment interest can return when market conditions improve.

Takeaways

  • The investment theme is broader than Bitcoin: the discussion points to possible growth in crypto-based financial infrastructure and automated transactions.
  • The transcript does not identify specific tokens or companies expected to capture that growth, so it does not establish which projects may benefit most.

S&P 500 and U.S. Public Equities

  • Visser cited Marc Andreessen’s description of the S&P 500 as “492 bonds and eight call options.” He used this to argue that many established public companies may offer limited growth, while a small group of large technology companies carry much of the market’s potential upside.
  • He argued that AI could disrupt many large companies, while regulation and government involvement could constrain growth and valuations.
  • He said the S&P 500 had lagged earnings growth considerably during the year discussed, with earnings growing close to 30% while the index was no longer up double digits. He interpreted this as multiple compression—investors paying less for each dollar of earnings.
  • He warned that investors in AI-related public stocks may need to manage them more actively because of volatility and recurring risks, including regulation, competition, financing pressure, and data-center constraints.

Takeaways

  • The conversation is cautious on broad U.S. equity returns, especially for companies with limited growth prospects or substantial exposure to AI disruption.
  • The “492 bonds, eight call options” analogy is a viewpoint, not a literal classification of the index. Investors should distinguish between the broad market and the specific companies they own.

AI and Data-Center Stocks

  • Visser said the AI infrastructure trade could still produce S&P-plus returns over the next two to three years, but expected that efficiency gains and other changes could eventually reduce the need for infrastructure spending.
  • He said AI demand had not disappeared, but that the market had begun to price in risks that were largely overlooked earlier in the year. He described high volatility, hedge-fund deleveraging, and uncertainty about data-center construction and financing.
  • He did not believe the AI trade was necessarily over or that the current decline proved there was a bubble. However, he said future progress would likely be less smooth and more exposed to setbacks.

Takeaways

  • The transcript presents a mixed view: potential near-term opportunity in AI infrastructure, alongside meaningful valuation, financing, regulatory, and execution risks.
  • Visser’s suggested time frame for stronger infrastructure returns was limited to roughly two to three years; he did not make a specific stock recommendation.

Microsoft (MSFT)

  • Visser cited Microsoft’s reported offer of buyouts to 27% of its employees as a warning sign of how rapidly AI could change staffing needs and the structure of large companies.
  • He framed broad employee displacement as a source of economic and political pressure, rather than as a positive investment catalyst for Microsoft specifically.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlights workforce disruption as a risk to monitor across large companies, but it does not provide a valuation or buy/sell view on Microsoft shares.

Nvidia (NVDA)

  • Visser said Nvidia had experienced substantial volatility and that its valuation multiple had compressed. He described it as approaching a single-digit P/E in the discussion, using this as an example of how far investors’ valuation expectations had shifted.
  • He did not interpret a low P/E as automatically making the stock attractive; he said broad multiple compression could continue.

Takeaways

  • A lower valuation multiple alone does not settle the investment case. The transcript emphasizes uncertainty about future growth and what valuation investors will be willing to pay.

Micron Technology (MU)

  • Visser said Micron’s P/E was around 3 at the time of recording and called that unusually low, while cautioning that he did not expect the market to value the company at a higher multiple simply because the number looked inexpensive.
  • He noted that memory prices had contributed to inflation earlier in the year and said their year-over-year growth rate had turned negative.
  • He described Micron as highly volatile, with a sharp share-price decline during the market sell-off.

Takeaways

  • The discussion warns against treating a very low P/E as a stand-alone bargain signal. Investors would need to assess the company’s earnings durability and how the market values its business through changing memory-market conditions.

Marvell Technology (MRVL)

  • Visser said Marvell’s large acquisition—described as worth more than $100 billion—was not necessarily a direct purchase of a competitor but involved a different part of the technology stack.
  • He had viewed the deal as potentially concerning because larger scale can bring added execution and other risks. He also said Marvell’s news contributed to pressure on the AI trade.
  • He described Marvell as having more potential exposure to data-center and optical-related demand than some other chip companies, while noting that investors were questioning data-center growth.

Takeaways

  • The transcript flags the acquisition as a source of uncertainty rather than presenting it as a clear positive or negative catalyst.
  • Investors considering Marvell should weigh its data-center opportunity against acquisition-related uncertainty and the broader volatility in AI infrastructure shares.

Intel (INTC)

  • Visser grouped Intel with Marvell as a company whose developments contributed to the latest leg down in AI-related stocks.
  • He also compared Qualcomm’s exposure to some of Intel’s pressures, including weakness in the auto and phone markets.

Takeaways

  • The discussion is cautious and does not identify a specific catalyst that would make Intel an attractive investment.

Nebius and CoreWeave

  • Visser questioned whether Nebius and CoreWeave should be valued as high-growth options, saying he viewed them more like bonds and did not expect them to grow tenfold.
  • He cited concerns about CoreWeave debt as part of the broader pressure on leveraged AI-related positions.

Takeaways

  • The key issue raised is whether infrastructure companies can convert demand into durable growth while managing financing needs.
  • The transcript offers no price targets or specific recommendations for either company.

Apple (AAPL)

  • Visser described Apple as relatively insulated from the AI investment cycle because it had little AI-related capital spending and was not relying on a large AI business.
  • He said Apple had seen multiple expansion, with a P/E around 40, and characterized it as a quality or defensive holding that investors had moved into.
  • He also noted that memory costs could affect phone sales across the industry, including Apple.

Takeaways

  • Apple was presented as comparatively resilient in the period discussed, but not immune to risks such as memory costs or weaker phone demand.
  • The transcript does not make an explicit recommendation to buy the stock.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) and Eli Lilly (LLY)

  • Visser said Berkshire Hathaway and Eli Lilly, along with Apple, were making or near all-time highs as investors moved toward companies perceived as higher quality or safer.
  • He did not provide additional company-specific analysis or recommendations.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggests that investors were favoring perceived quality and defensiveness amid volatility in AI-related stocks.
  • No price targets or specific investment theses for Berkshire Hathaway or Eli Lilly were provided.

Ford (F) and General Motors (GM)

  • Visser used Ford and GM as examples of established companies that may continue to sell products but may not deliver strong growth.
  • He suggested that, over a decade, investors could receive returns below the S&P 500 from companies he sees as vulnerable to AI disruption.

Takeaways

  • The transcript expresses a cautious long-term view of mature companies with limited growth prospects.
  • This was a general comparison, not a specific forecast for either automaker.

Qualcomm (QCOM)

  • Visser said Qualcomm’s main exposure is in autos and phones, with a data-center business that is not comparable in scale or potential to companies more focused on data centers.
  • He cited weak auto sales, affordability pressures, memory shortages, and higher phone prices as headwinds.
  • He said Qualcomm had fallen 9% after earnings and compared some of its challenges to Intel’s.

Takeaways

  • The discussion is cautious on Qualcomm, emphasizing its dependence on auto and phone demand and its more limited data-center exposure.
  • No price target or specific recommendation was given.

Gold (GLD)

  • Visser said gold had faced headwinds from higher real yields, a stronger dollar, and capital flowing into AI investments.
  • He expected gold to bounce if liquidity conditions improved and said he saw potential for Bitcoin and gold to move together on the upside.
  • He cited gold’s recent weakness and short-term rebound but did not give a price target.

Takeaways

  • The discussion identifies gold as a possible beneficiary if real-yield and liquidity pressures ease.
  • The view is conditional: higher real yields or renewed dollar strength could continue to weigh on gold.

Silver, Platinum, and Palladium

  • Visser said platinum had a reversal week and that silver and palladium had also performed well, suggesting the move was not limited to gold.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to broader precious-metals interest, but provides no specific forecast, recommendation, or price target for these metals.

Oil

  • Visser said oil prices had fallen sharply, including a roughly $20 decline in Brent crude over three days.
  • He linked the decline to the possibility of negotiations involving Iran and said lower oil prices could reduce inflation readings and ease pressure on rates.
  • He said he had no position in oil and emphasized that his geopolitical interpretation was based on reading the available developments, not on oil-market expertise.

Takeaways

  • The transcript presents lower oil prices as potentially supportive for inflation-sensitive assets, including Bitcoin, but the outcome depends on geopolitical developments.
  • The discussion does not provide a direct oil investment recommendation.

Crypto-Backed Loans and Yield Products Mentioned in Ads

  • The episode included sponsored promotions, which should be treated as advertisements rather than independent endorsements:
    • Figure promoted crypto-backed loans at a stated 8.91% interest rate and 9.9% APR, with a 50% loan-to-value ratio. It also advertised a private-credit product, Democratize Prime, with up to 9% APY.
    • Figure said its loan structure used segregated custody and offered liquidation protection, while noting that borrowing against crypto carries volatility-related downside considerations.
    • Galaxy One promoted a credit line against eligible crypto including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, HYPE, and XRP. Its advertised promotion offered a 2% cash bonus for a qualifying draw of at least $10,000, subject to a 180-day balance hold and other terms. The ad explicitly warned of interest costs and possible liquidation if collateral falls in value.
    • Arch Public promoted automated strategies across crypto, stocks, commodities, and ETFs, including a tax-loss-harvesting tool.

Takeaways

  • Borrowing against crypto can provide liquidity without selling, but it adds interest costs and the possibility of forced liquidation if collateral falls.
  • Advertised yields and promotional bonuses are product terms presented by sponsors, not guaranteed investment outcomes or independent assessments of risk.
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Episode Description
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down the midterm blue wave and the market sell-off, why the S&P 500 may really be 492 bonds and 8 call options, and why bitcoin is positioned to beat public stocks. We also discuss easing liquidity, the Elliott Wave setup for bitcoin, Iran and oil, gold, and hedge fund deleveraging. ======================= Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates investment strategies across Stocks, Commodities, ETFs and Crypto. Whether you’re rotating into AI & Gold, allocating to the S&P 500, or accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public executes your plan 24/7 without ever taking custody of your assets or funds. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com, and start your FREE automated trading strategy! ======================= Figure’s $1,250 Promotion (https://figuremarkets.onelink.me/Plnq/affiliatepompthanksgiving) T&Cs (https://www.figure.com/crypto-backed-loan/thanksgiving-promotion/terms-and-conditions/) Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Take out a Figure Crypto-Backed Loan, allowing you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms, 8.91% interest rates, and no prepayment penalties. Or check out Democratized Prime (https://figuremarkets.co/pomp) and earn ~8.5% APY on real world assets. Unlock your crypto’s potential today at Figure! https://figuremarkets.co/pomp Figure Lending LLC dba Figure (NMLS 1717824). Loans subject to approval. Crypto collateral may be liquidated. Terms apply - see full disclosures at figure.com/disclosures/ ======================= This episode is brought to you by GalaxyOne. Need cash but don’t want to sell your crypto? A GalaxyOne Portfolio Line of Credit lets you borrow against eligible crypto, including BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE, and XRP, without selling. From Nov 4 to Dec 4, make a single draw of $10,000+ and earn a 2% cash bonus, up to $1,000. A 180-day hold with no principal repayments is required, and the offer is limited to the first 200 eligible clients. Borrowing involves risk, including variable interest and possible liquidation of your collateral. Lending is offered by GalaxyOne Lending LLC (NMLS ID: 2741667), and terms apply. Open a line → https://www.galaxy.app/promotions/ploc-november-2026 ======================= 0:00 - Intro 1:01 - Midterm blue wave & market sell-off 5:30 - S&P 500 is 492 bonds & 8 call options 9:37 - Why bitcoin beats public stocks 18:29 - Bitcoin liquidity & Elliott Wave setup 23:33 - Bitcoin vs the AI trade 29:17 - Is AI winner take all? 31:40 - Marvell deal & hedge fund deleveraging 38:25 - Iran, oil & falling inflation 42:48 - Gold, Qualcomm & the AI trade 49:08 - Midterm memes & political extremism 54:16 - How we used AI this week
About The Pomp Podcast
The Pomp Podcast

The Pomp Podcast

By Anthony Pompliano

Host Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano talks to the most interesting people in business, finance, and Bitcoin. From billionaires to cultural icons, Pomp helps you get smarter every day.