85% Of The AI Boom Is Still Ahead Of Us | Dan Ives
85% Of The AI Boom Is Still Ahead Of Us | Dan Ives
Podcast47 min 52 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • For AI exposure, prioritize profitable or cash-rich infrastructure leaders such as NVIDIA (NVDA) and major hyperscalers; track chip demand, customer spending, and earnings to confirm the buildout remains strong.
  • Consider memory makers Micron (MU), Samsung, and SK Hynix as additional AI infrastructure plays, but verify current valuations and order trends—the cited demand surge and MU’s roughly 5× earnings valuation may be time-sensitive.
  • Treat CoreWeave (CRWV) and Oracle (ORCL) as higher-risk AI infrastructure investments: monitor debt, financing costs, and whether backlogs translate into cash flow.
  • Tesla (TSLA) offers a speculative merger-driven trade: the discussion cited $420–$450 as a possible move on speculation and $500–$550 as an estimated deal valuation, but no merger is assured and regulatory risks are significant.
  • The AI thesis remains a long-term forecast, with one estimate putting the boom below 15% complete and earnings growth potentially 15%–25% higher over the next 12–18 months; balance exposure against higher yields, leverage, and adoption risks.
Detailed Analysis

AI Infrastructure and Capex (Investment Theme)

  • Dan Ives’s central view is bullish: he believes demand for AI computing is still growing, with the AI boom less than 15% complete and no equilibrium until 2029.
  • He argues that spending by large technology companies creates a multiplier effect across the broader tech sector, benefiting areas such as chips, memory, software, data centers, energy, and cybersecurity.
  • Ives says investors may be underestimating earnings growth by 15%–25% over the next 12–18 months. He also said the S&P 500 could reach 8,000 this year—his forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.
  • He cited growing enterprise use cases and stronger demand in Asia as evidence the buildout is translating into real adoption. He also expects AI to increase productivity and, over five years, create more jobs than it displaces.

Takeaways

  • Consider the AI opportunity across the supply chain rather than focusing only on the largest chipmakers. The discussion points to memory, software, infrastructure, energy, and cybersecurity as potential beneficiaries.
  • Treat the bullish outlook as a thesis to test against company results: look for evidence of sustained demand, monetization, and earnings growth.
  • Keep the stated risks in view: higher yields, debt-funded construction, regulatory uncertainty around data centers, and the possibility that AI spending or adoption disappoints.

Memory Stocks: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron (MU)

  • Ives said memory demand had risen about 30% over the prior four to six weeks, based on his observations in Korea. He described Samsung and SK Hynix as central players in the memory market.
  • He pointed to Micron as trading at about five times earnings. That valuation claim is his characterization in the conversation and may be time-sensitive.
  • He sees memory demand as an important indicator of whether AI infrastructure spending is continuing.

Takeaways

  • Memory makers may offer exposure to AI infrastructure beyond the best-known GPU companies.
  • Check current valuations, earnings, and order trends independently; a low earnings multiple alone does not establish that a stock is undervalued.
  • The transcript gives no individual price targets for Samsung, SK Hynix, or Micron.

Korea and the KOSPI

  • Ives said Korea’s market had become more visible to global investors, in part because of its memory companies and retail-trading activity.
  • He described a sharp sell-off, attributing it partly to leverage and retail investors piling into the market. He also said he thought the market had become oversold.
  • He expects the KOSPI to make new all-time highs “when we go into next year.” This is his forecast, not a stated guarantee.

Takeaways

  • The bullish case depends heavily on continued AI-related demand and a rebound after the sell-off; volatility and leverage were specifically mentioned as concerns.
  • Investors considering Korea exposure should assess the broader market and currency risks as well as the semiconductor cycle. The transcript does not give a KOSPI price target.

NVIDIA (NVDA) and AI Chip Suppliers

  • Ives described demand for chips and memory as central to the AI buildout. He also argued that spending on NVIDIA chips can flow through to other technology companies and the broader economy.
  • He cited strong AI product development and rising demand as reasons he believes the AI investment cycle has further to run.

Takeaways

  • NVIDIA is presented as a key AI infrastructure beneficiary, but the discussion does not provide a specific valuation or price target.
  • Investors can use chip demand and customers’ capital-spending plans as indicators of whether the AI buildout is maintaining momentum.

CoreWeave (CRWV)

  • CoreWeave was a focal point of concern about the financing of AI infrastructure. Ives acknowledged that higher yields matter because he estimated about 20% of the buildout would need debt funding or equity-linked financing.
  • He argued that CoreWeave’s debt was small relative to its backlog and pushed back against the bearish narrative around neoclouds.
  • He nevertheless identified CoreWeave’s debt and credit-default-swap concerns as part of the market jitters.

Takeaways

  • CoreWeave offers exposure to AI computing demand, but its financing needs are a central part of the investment case.
  • Monitor debt, financing costs, and whether its backlog turns into revenue and cash flow. Ives’s favorable view does not remove the financing risk he acknowledged.

Oracle (ORCL)

  • Ives described Oracle as another example of a company taking on substantial debt to build out AI infrastructure. He said the market was reacting negatively to this approach.
  • He contrasted companies such as Oracle and CoreWeave with large hyperscalers, which he said were in a stronger position because of their capital resources and existing customer bases.

Takeaways

  • Oracle’s AI opportunity should be weighed against the cost and financing of its expansion.
  • Compare its investment requirements and balance-sheet capacity with those of larger, cash-rich cloud companies; the transcript gives no Oracle price target.

Palantir (PLTR) and Snowflake (SNOW)

  • Ives cited Palantir and Snowflake as examples of companies where enterprise AI use cases are multiplying.
  • He sees a transition underway from spending on AI infrastructure toward software adoption and monetization, while acknowledging that this transition takes time.

Takeaways

  • These companies may benefit if businesses increasingly pay for AI-enabled software and data tools.
  • Look for evidence of customer adoption and revenue growth; the transcript does not specify price targets or timing for either stock.

Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX

  • Ives described Tesla’s transition from an electric-vehicle company toward AI-related businesses, including autonomy and robotics, as a reason the stock’s current investment focus is on the future rather than vehicle deliveries.
  • He said he owns Tesla stock and called it a potential way to participate in a possible Tesla–SpaceX merger. He estimated a deal would need to value Tesla at $500–$550 per share, roughly a 30%–40% premium to the levels discussed in the episode.
  • The host referenced a Tesla price around $370–$375 and suggested a possible move to $420–$450 if investor speculation increased before a decision. These were conversational estimates, not a formal price target.
  • Ives said he viewed the merger as highly likely, while acknowledging regulatory and conflict-of-interest scrutiny. He discussed possible strategic links between Tesla’s data and engineering, SpaceX’s launch and satellite capabilities, Starlink, and AI.
  • Ives said investors were mostly buying SpaceX as the initial trade, based both on merger speculation and its business prospects. SpaceX is privately held, and Ives said he did not own it at the time.

Takeaways

  • The Tesla investment case discussed is partly based on a possible merger, not solely on Tesla’s existing results. That makes the thesis dependent on a deal that has not been completed.
  • Consider the stated risks: regulatory scrutiny, potential shareholder concerns about deal terms, political complications, and the possibility that a merger does not happen.
  • SpaceX was discussed as an investment interest, but it is private; the transcript does not describe a direct public-market way to buy its shares.

Apple (AAPL) and Meta (META)

  • Ives cited Apple as a company whose stock reflects investor expectations that it can eventually monetize consumer AI.
  • He pointed to Meta as another example of a company benefiting from AI investment and consumer-facing applications. He also referred to narrowing competitive gaps among major AI developers.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presents these companies as potential beneficiaries if AI features translate into consumer use and revenue.
  • The transcript gives no specific price targets for Apple or Meta; investors would need to assess how successfully each company turns AI investment into monetization.

Hyperscalers and Broader Technology Companies (MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, DELL)

  • Ives argued that major technology companies are better positioned than neoclouds to fund AI expansion because of their balance sheets, cash generation, and existing customer bases.
  • He cited a large technology-company funding base, including substantial cash and free cash flow, as a reason he sees the current buildout as different from earlier infrastructure bubbles.
  • Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Dell were mentioned in the discussion of hyperscalers, infrastructure, or AI-related activity, but the transcript did not give individual recommendations or price targets for them.

Takeaways

  • The conversation favors financially strong companies that can fund AI investment internally, but it does not rank these companies or quantify their expected returns.
  • Compare spending plans with cash generation and potential returns from AI products and services.

S&P 500 and Market Concentration

  • The hosts discussed figures indicating that the 15 largest S&P 500 companies represented 46% of the index’s market value and the top 10 represented 40%.
  • Ives said this concentration would become less concerning if AI spending broadens into software, infrastructure, energy, and cybersecurity.
  • He also cited an 88% earnings-beat rate for the portion of companies that had reported at that point, and said he expected market strength into year-end.

Takeaways

  • A broadening of AI-related earnings could reduce reliance on a small group of mega-cap companies, but that outcome remains a forecast.
  • Investors in index funds should be aware of the concentration figures discussed and consider whether their portfolio exposure is already heavily weighted toward the largest technology companies.

Bitcoin (BTC), Bitcoin-Backed Loans, and Mining

  • A sponsor advertisement described borrowing against Bitcoin rather than selling it, citing loan rates of about 8.91% interest or 9.9% APR at a 50% loan-to-value ratio. It also promoted optional liquidation protection and segregated-wallet custody.
  • Another sponsor advertisement promoted Bitcoin mining, claiming that access to industrial power could allow investors to mine Bitcoin at a cost below the spot price. It also promoted potential first-year depreciation deductions for qualifying equipment purchases.
  • These were promotional claims in advertisements, not investment analysis by the guest.

Takeaways

  • Borrowing against Bitcoin may preserve exposure, but it also adds debt and leaves the borrower exposed to the consequences of market volatility; compare the stated borrowing costs with the risks and terms before considering it.
  • Mining economics depend on electricity costs, equipment costs, and tax eligibility. Verify promotional claims and consult a qualified tax professional before relying on a tax deduction.

Agentic Investing Platforms (Robinhood, Coinbase)

  • The conversation discussed AI agents that may screen investments or trade on users’ behalf. The host said Robinhood and Coinbase had segregated accounts that could limit an agent’s access to part of a customer’s funds.
  • Ives viewed AI-assisted investing as potentially useful for handling data and preferences, and said it could bring more investors into markets.
  • He also flagged the need for regulatory guardrails, cybersecurity protections, and safeguards against bad actors.

Takeaways

  • AI-assisted investing is an emerging investment theme, but automated trading introduces operational and oversight questions.
  • If considering such tools, check what funds an agent can access, what trades it can make, and what protections apply. The transcript provides no recommendation to buy Robinhood or Coinbase stock.
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Episode Description
Dan Ives is a partner at Yorkville Ives and one of Wall Street’s most-followed tech analysts. In this conversation, we break down what he saw on the ground in Korea and why he thinks the AI bears are wrong. We also discuss the potential Tesla and SpaceX merger, CoreWeave and AI debt fears, the midterms, interest rates, and where the stock market goes from here. ====================== Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates investment strategies across Stocks, Commodities, ETFs and Crypto. Whether you’re rotating into AI & Gold, allocating to the S&P 500, or accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public executes your plan 24/7 without ever taking custody of your assets or funds. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com, and start your FREE automated trading strategy! ====================== Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Take out a Figure Crypto-Backed Loan, allowing you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms, 8.91% interest rates, and no prepayment penalties. Or check out Democratized Prime (https://figuremarkets.co/pomp) and earn ~8.5% APY on real world assets. Unlock your crypto’s potential today at Figure! https://figuremarkets.co/pomp Figure Lending LLC dba Figure (NMLS 1717824). Loans subject to approval. Crypto collateral may be liquidated. Terms apply - see full disclosures at https://figure.com/disclosures/ ====================== Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp ====================== 0:00 - Intro 1:08 - Report from Korea & AI chip demand 4:51 - Market sell-off & what the AI bears get right 9:25 - Why Wall Street is underestimating AI growth 15:06 - Midterms & data centers  16:46 - Rate hikes, CoreWeave & Oracle debt 19:00 - What could slow AI demand? 20:53 - Tesla & SpaceX merger 33:06 - How investors are playing the merger 35:52 - Market concentration, earnings & the bear narratives 41:34 - AI agents & the future of investing 45:22 - Political risk & a message to the bears
About The Pomp Podcast
The Pomp Podcast

The Pomp Podcast

By Anthony Pompliano

Host Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano talks to the most interesting people in business, finance, and Bitcoin. From billionaires to cultural icons, Pomp helps you get smarter every day.