CoreWeave's 15% Bonds vs. $104B Backlog, Modal, ElevenLabs & Science Corp
CoreWeave's 15% Bonds vs. $104B Backlog, Modal, ElevenLabs & Science Corp
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider CoreWeave (CRWV) on weakness as a higher-risk AI infrastructure opportunity; its $104 billion backlog supports demand, but verify it can secure GPUs, electricity, and financing to deliver.
  • For broader AI exposure, favor a diversified approach to AI developer tools and model platforms rather than betting on a single private company; assess valuations carefully, as several cited companies already carry lofty private-market valuations.
  • Treat claims about SpaceX’s rapid compute rollout and projected $500 billion–$1 trillion revenue run rate by end-2027 as speculative, not a verified investment case.
  • Monitor Science Corporation and Neuralink, but wait for evidence of scalable adoption—especially non-invasive products—before treating them as actionable investments.
Detailed Analysis

CoreWeave (CRWV)

  • The discussion was bullish on CoreWeave and described its $104 billion backlog as evidence of strong demand for AI computing capacity.
    • One speaker argued that the market’s negative reaction to CoreWeave and other AI infrastructure companies could be a buying opportunity, saying demand is outpacing the company’s ability to deliver.
    • The speakers also noted concerns about rising bond yields and the difficulty of financing GPU clusters, energy systems, and cooling infrastructure.
    • They suggested that Erebor, a new bank mentioned in the episode, could help if it becomes better at valuing GPU clusters and related infrastructure as loan collateral.
  • SpaceX was described as able to build compute capacity faster than CoreWeave, but the speakers argued that CoreWeave could still benefit even if competitors are more efficient.

Takeaways

  • The investment case presented depends on CoreWeave turning its backlog into delivered capacity and revenue. Watch whether it can secure the GPUs, electricity, and financing needed to meet demand.
  • The speakers saw the stock’s weakness as a potential opportunity, but the transcript also highlights financing costs and execution capacity as important factors.

SpaceX

  • The speakers described SpaceX as a major potential competitor in AI data-center capacity, saying it could bring compute online faster than other providers.
    • They cited a claimed six-month return-on-investment period for new infrastructure and a forecast of $500 billion to $1 trillion in revenue run rate by the end of 2027.
    • The episode also said SpaceX was trading at $165, above its IPO price. The transcript’s comments about its IPO and valuation are unclear, so these figures should be treated as claims made in the discussion rather than independently verified details.
  • One speaker called SpaceX the strongest play for rapidly building compute capacity, while the other argued that CoreWeave could still succeed even if SpaceX is more efficient.

Takeaways

  • The opportunity described is exposure to AI data-center growth, but the revenue and payback claims are highly ambitious. The discussion itself emphasizes how much the outcome depends on building capacity and capturing customer demand.

Science Corporation

  • Science Corporation was discussed as a Neuralink competitor, founded by Neuralink co-founder Max Hodak.
  • The speakers were enthusiastic about the potential to help people with vision loss and other neurological conditions, but questioned whether those medical applications alone provide a large enough market for venture-scale investment returns.
  • They saw a potentially much larger opportunity if the company can develop non-invasive wearables that read or respond to brain signals without surgery.
    • The discussion compared adoption prospects with familiar devices such as earbuds and smartwatches.
    • It also mentioned that similar products are being sold in China, but did not provide details about Science Corporation’s own sales.

Takeaways

  • The investment thesis described is conditional: medical applications may have significant social value, while a broad non-invasive consumer product could expand the commercial opportunity.
  • The speakers said they would want to see the technology develop and begin selling before drawing stronger conclusions. No valuation or investment recommendation was given.

Neuralink

  • Neuralink was discussed alongside Science Corporation as part of the brain-computer interface sector.
  • The speakers questioned the practical scalability of surgically implanting chips in very large numbers of people and raised concerns about whether consumers would choose invasive implants.
  • They suggested that widespread adoption could become more plausible if brain-computer interfaces become socially or professionally advantageous, but presented this as speculation.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to adoption and scalability as key questions for Neuralink and similar companies.
  • The speakers viewed non-invasive devices as a potentially easier route to a broader market than brain implants.

ElevenLabs

  • ElevenLabs was described as an AI company focused on voice, with the episode citing a $22 billion valuation in September.
  • The speakers pointed to several potential applications:
    • AI-powered customer service and real-time voice conversations.
    • Voice cloning and tools for editing speech, such as correcting a stumble in a recording.
    • Creating original music and sound for advertising, videos, and other content.
    • Combining generated research, scripts, voice, and video into automated content workflows.
  • One speaker said a newer voice model was intended to make conversations feel more natural, with less delay and better voice inflection.

Takeaways

  • The investment case discussed rests on ElevenLabs continuing to improve voice technology and converting applications such as customer service and content production into sustained use.
  • The $22 billion valuation was cited without further valuation analysis or a specific recommendation.

Modal

  • Modal was described as an AI infrastructure and developer-tools company offering services for model inference and training.
  • The episode cited $1 billion in annualized run-rate revenue, a $750 million funding round, and a $15.75 billion valuation.
  • The speakers said businesses may use platforms like Modal to customize models and work with open-source AI, rather than relying solely on expensive offerings from companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI.
  • One speaker suggested that Modal and similar businesses could have significant long-term potential, while noting that the key question is how large these companies can ultimately become.

Takeaways

  • The discussion favors the broader AI developer-tools and model-platform opportunity, but investors would need to assess whether rapid revenue growth can support high private-market valuations.
  • The episode did not provide a specific recommendation for Modal.

Base10, Together AI, and Fireworks AI

  • These companies were named as peers or related opportunities in the AI infrastructure and developer-tools space.
  • One speaker said an investor seeking exposure to the sector might consider allocating across multiple companies, including Modal, Base10, Together AI, and Fireworks AI.
  • The rationale was that businesses building, customizing, and serving AI models may benefit as companies seek alternatives to relying exclusively on large, costly model providers.

Takeaways

  • The discussion favors broad exposure across AI platforms and developer tools rather than relying on a single company.
  • No valuations or specific recommendations were given for Base10, Together AI, or Fireworks AI.

Databricks

  • Databricks was cited as being valued at more than $200 billion in the secondary market.
  • The speaker used that valuation as evidence that AI infrastructure and developer-tools companies could potentially grow to very large valuations.

Takeaways

  • Databricks served as a comparison point for the possible scale of AI-related private companies, not as a specific buy recommendation.
  • The transcript did not discuss Databricks’ financial performance or a suitable entry valuation.

AI infrastructure and model platforms

  • The speakers expressed a broadly bullish view of AI infrastructure, arguing that demand for computing capacity is strong and that many investors may not yet appreciate how widely AI can be used.
  • They described AI as being in its “first inning” and argued that the opportunity extends beyond data centers and GPUs to developer tools and platforms that help businesses customize models.
  • They also identified constraints: companies may struggle to obtain enough GPUs and electricity, and providers may not be able to deliver capacity quickly enough.

Takeaways

  • The investment theme discussed spans data-center capacity, cloud computing, and tools for building or adapting AI models.
  • The speakers’ positive outlook depends on AI adoption continuing to grow and companies converting demand into delivered services and revenue.
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Video Description
AI demand is outrunning supply, and this week the market priced that tension from both ends. SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161% year over year, with its AI segment, built largely on compute leased to developers including Anthropic and Google, generating about $7.6 billion and overtaking Starlink as its largest business; management says new compute pays back in under a year, and Elon Musk projected $500 billion to $1 trillion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2027. CoreWeave went the other way: shares fell about 15% on October 14 as yields on its 2032 notes approached 15%, even as the company points to a $104.2 billion revenue backlog at the end of June. In private markets, Modal raised a $750 million Series D at a $15.75 billion post-money valuation led by Accel after crossing $1 billion in annualized run rate; ElevenLabs reached a $22 billion valuation in a $300 million employee tender and launched Eleven Realtime, its new speech-to-speech models for voice agents; and Max Hodak's Science Corp, whose PRIMA retinal implant is cleared for sale in Europe, implanted its first Stargardt disease patient. Our house view: when customers are asking for more compute than anyone can deliver, the bottleneck is where value accrues first, and we would watch the infrastructure layer, from neoclouds and their lenders to the inference platforms developers build on. Aaron Ross and Aaron Dillon break down a week that put AI infrastructure on trial, from distressed-looking bonds to blowout earnings. In this episode: Science Corp and the brain-computer interface business model: Dillon's market-size question, and why non-invasive devices could be BCI's iPhone moment Would you put a chip in your brain? Late adopters, smartphones, and competitive pressure CoreWeave's bond selloff vs. its $104.2B backlog, and Ross on Palmer Luckey's Erebor and pricing GPUs as loan collateral Why Dillon thinks most investors still underestimate AI demand SpaceX's AI quarter: compute leasing, management's sub-one-year payback claim, and Musk's 2027 target ElevenLabs at $22B: real-time voice agents, AI music and sound effects, and the straight-through content pipeline Modal's $1B run rate, serverless sandboxes, and the inference-platform cohort alongside Baseten, Together AI and Fireworks AI How big can AI infrastructure platforms get? The Databricks comparison "Do I wanna put a chip in my brain? No. Do I think I might have to at some point? Probably." — Aaron Dillon This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Opinions expressed are those of the speakers as of the recording date and may change without notice. Private company securities are illiquid, speculative, and involve a high degree of risk, including the potential loss of the entire investment, and are generally available only to accredited investors. The hosts or their affiliates may hold positions in, or have business relationships with, companies discussed. Valuations and figures cited are based on public reporting and have not been independently verified.
About The Cap Table — Pre IPO Podcast
The Cap Table — Pre IPO Podcast

The Cap Table — Pre IPO Podcast

By @thecaptablepodcast

The Cap Table is a weekly podcast hosted by Aaron Ross and Aaron Dillon, breaking down the most important private and Pre-IPO companies before they hit the public markets. Interested in investing in Pre-IPO stocks? Let's talk. Aaron.ross@rosspreipo.com Aaron.dillon@agdillon.com