AI demand is outrunning supply, and this week the market priced that tension from both ends. SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161% year over year, with its AI segment, built largely on compute leased to developers including Anthropic and Google, generating about $7.6 billion and overtaking Starlink as its largest business; management says new compute pays back in under a year, and Elon Musk projected $500 billion to $1 trillion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2027. CoreWeave went the other way: shares fell about 15% on October 14 as yields on its 2032 notes approached 15%, even as the company points to a $104.2 billion revenue backlog at the end of June. In private markets, Modal raised a $750 million Series D at a $15.75 billion post-money valuation led by Accel after crossing $1 billion in annualized run rate; ElevenLabs reached a $22 billion valuation in a $300 million employee tender and launched Eleven Realtime, its new speech-to-speech models for voice agents; and Max Hodak's Science Corp, whose PRIMA retinal implant is cleared for sale in Europe, implanted its first Stargardt disease patient. Our house view: when customers are asking for more compute than anyone can deliver, the bottleneck is where value accrues first, and we would watch the infrastructure layer, from neoclouds and their lenders to the inference platforms developers build on.
Aaron Ross and Aaron Dillon break down a week that put AI infrastructure on trial, from distressed-looking bonds to blowout earnings.
In this episode:
Science Corp and the brain-computer interface business model: Dillon's market-size question, and why non-invasive devices could be BCI's iPhone moment
Would you put a chip in your brain? Late adopters, smartphones, and competitive pressure
CoreWeave's bond selloff vs. its $104.2B backlog, and Ross on Palmer Luckey's Erebor and pricing GPUs as loan collateral
Why Dillon thinks most investors still underestimate AI demand
SpaceX's AI quarter: compute leasing, management's sub-one-year payback claim, and Musk's 2027 target
ElevenLabs at $22B: real-time voice agents, AI music and sound effects, and the straight-through content pipeline
Modal's $1B run rate, serverless sandboxes, and the inference-platform cohort alongside Baseten, Together AI and Fireworks AI
How big can AI infrastructure platforms get? The Databricks comparison
"Do I wanna put a chip in my brain? No. Do I think I might have to at some point? Probably." — Aaron Dillon
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