TBPN
Podcast

TBPN

by John Coogan & Jordi Hays

338 episodes

Technology's daily show (formerly the Technology Brothers Podcast). Streaming live on X and YouTube from 11 - 2 PM PST Monday - Friday. Available on X, Apple, Spotify, and YouTube.
Ask about TBPNAnswers are grounded in this source's posts from the last 30 days.

Recent Posts

338 posts
The AI lab market map, Robinhood brings startups to retail, GLPs & hedge funds | Diet TBPN

A long-term bullish signal for natural gas supports major producer EQT, as its CEO champions an "all of the above" global energy strategy that includes fossil fuels. For private market exposure, the new Robinhood Ventures fund offers access to startups like Databricks and Stripe, but investors should be extremely cautious. This closed-end fund carries a high risk of trading at a significant premium to its actual asset value, potentially causing large losses. In the AI sector, investment opportunities exist beyond the giants by focusing on smaller companies in specialized niches. Finally, monitor the space race between SpaceX and Blue Origin, as lucrative government contracts for the Artemis program will be a major catalyst.

Mapping Neo Labs, Unlocking LLM Growth, Evan Spiegel Live in the Ultradome | Blake Dodge, Freddie deBoer, Sohail Prasad, Travis Brashears

Consider investing in Snap (SNAP) as it successfully diversifies revenue with its $1 billion Snapchat+ subscription business and spins out its Specs hardware division. EQT Corporation (EQT) presents a long-term opportunity as its new "Energy Corps" initiative aims to position natural gas as a key fuel for global development. For exposure to top private tech companies like SpaceX and Anthropic, investors can look at the publicly traded fund Destiny Tech 100 (DXYZ). An activist investor is targeting Japanese toilet maker Toto Ltd., arguing it is an undervalued AI play due to its hidden business supplying the semiconductor industry. Be cautious with closed-end funds like DXYZ and the new Robinhood Ventures fund, as they can trade at a significant premium to the actual value of their underlying assets.

The Cournot Equation, Micron’s $200B Bet, Hollywood vs. Seedance 2.0 | Diet TBPN

The massive spending on AI creates a primary investment opportunity in the "picks and shovels" that power the industry. A high-conviction trade is Micron (MU), which is positioned to benefit from a severe supply crunch in the AI memory chip market. This supply/demand imbalance is expected to drive higher prices and profitability for memory manufacturers as demand from data centers outstrips supply. Investors can also gain exposure to the AI infrastructure build-out through major cloud providers like Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN). For those interested in event-driven situations, monitor potential merger talks between Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) and Paramount (PARA), which could cause significant stock price movement.

Why No One Talks Cournot, Hollywood vs. Seedance 2.0, Micron’s $200B Bet | Jon Caramanica, Haseeb Qureshi, Spenser Skates, Celine Halioua, Ankur Goyal, Reed Duchscher

Consider Micron (MU) as a long-term investment, as its massive $200 billion spending plan signals strong, sustained demand for AI memory chips. For broader AI exposure, focus on market leaders like Google (GOOGL) and Meta (META), which are positioned to become dominant, profitable platforms similar to today's cloud providers. **Apple (

Becoming Unsloppable, Anthropic’s Series G, The Mansion Section | Diet TBPN

Given the threat AI poses to traditional software, investors should exercise caution with Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) companies whose primary moat is complex code. Instead, consider investing in the "picks and shovels" of the AI boom, such as hardware providers NVIDIA (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO). Another "unsloppable" category includes companies with strong network effects, like marketplaces Uber (UBER) and Airbnb (ABNB), whose user bases are difficult for competitors to replicate. Similarly, firms that own vast libraries of intellectual property, such as Netflix (NFLX) and Spotify (SPOT), offer a durable defense against software commoditization. The core strategy is to prioritize businesses with defensible moats beyond just their software code.

Anthropic Hits $380B Valuation, Become Unsloppable, WSJ Mansion Section | Martin Shkreli, Connor Hayes, Alex Bouzari, Brett Adcock

Focus on investing in "unsloppable" companies whose value comes from durable advantages like network effects or economies of scale, not just complex software. Consider platforms like Google (GOOGL), Meta (META), and marketplaces like Airbnb (ABNB) that are difficult for new AI-powered startups to replicate. Be extremely cautious with the broader Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) sector, which faces a potential "newspaper-like decline" as AI dramatically lowers software development costs. For direct exposure to the AI hardware boom, consider a core position in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), the critical manufacturer of advanced chips. Re-evaluate your portfolio to favor companies with these defensible moats over software-only businesses facing intense future competition.

Anthropic’s $380B round, Paramount vs. WB, Higgsfield ragebait drama | Diet TBPN

The AI revolution is accelerating, creating an urgent window for investment as the opportunity to be "early" is closing fast. While major AI labs like Anthropic are private, their explosive growth is a strong bullish signal for key public partners NVIDIA (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT). Investors can gain exposure to this theme by considering these essential infrastructure providers. Additionally, the Apple (AAPL) Mac Mini is emerging as the preferred hardware for AI developers, potentially driving a new upgrade cycle for the company. This makes AAPL a compelling hardware-specific play on the broader AI trend.

Something Mini is Coming, Anthropic's $20B Round, Ackman’s Meta Move | Bryan Johnson, Andrew Huberman, Matthew Zeitlin, Joon Sung Park, David Risher, Todd McKinnon, Alexander Ksendzovsky

Consider Meta Platforms (META) as a high-conviction AI investment, validated by a large hedge fund purchase and strong sales of its AI-integrated Ray-Ban smart glasses. For a "picks and shovels" approach to AI infrastructure, look at Caterpillar (CAT) for providing essential power to data centers and Okta (OKTA) for securing the future AI workforce. The growing need for powerful local AI hardware also presents an opportunity in companies like Apple (AAPL). In the pharmaceutical sector, Eli Lilly (LLY) stands out with its potential trillion-dollar weight-loss drug, retatrutide, which could dominate the market. Monitor for new regulations restricting peptide sales, as this would be a significant catalyst for LLY.

AI Isn’t Covid, FBI probes Tai Lopez, Mistral’s $2B Sweden bet | Diet TBPN

Consider META as a top AI investment, following billionaire Bill Ackman's recent $2 billion purchase for his firm. The core thesis is that AI will significantly boost META's advertising business and accelerate future products like its smart glasses. In contrast, investors should re-evaluate their Software as a Service (SaaS) holdings, as AI threatens to disrupt the sector. Consider reducing exposure to SaaS companies with weak competitive moats that rely on customer lock-in, which AI could easily automate away. Finally, be aware that emerging private companies like Europe's Mistral AI are becoming serious competitors to US tech giants like Amazon and Microsoft.

Is Something Big Happening?, Tai Lopez Charged in $122M Fraud, U.S. Adds 130K Jobs | Harley Finkelstein, Vlad Tenev, Matt Shumer, Jeff Lawson, Sam Blond, John Ferrara

BlackRock's partnership to bring its BUIDL token to Uniswap is a major institutional endorsement, making the UNI token a compelling investment in the DeFi space. Billionaire investor Bill Ackman's new $2 billion stake signals strong conviction in Meta (META) as a top beneficiary of the Artificial Intelligence boom. Consider Shopify (SHOP) as it effectively integrates AI to enhance its e-commerce platform, showing strong growth and a defensible business model. Robinhood (HOOD) presents a potential growth opportunity as it expands into new areas like prediction markets while using AI to boost productivity. Investors should re-evaluate software holdings, favoring companies with durable advantages over those whose complex code can now be replicated by AI.

FULL INTERVIEW: Why I Spent $70M to buy AI.com

The primary investment theme is the massive growth potential in consumer-facing AI, which is viewed as a significantly larger opportunity than early cryptocurrency. While large incumbents like Google (GOOGL) and Meta (META) have distribution advantages, their success is not guaranteed. Investors should monitor these companies' ability to create user-friendly and "sticky" AI applications that achieve high user retention. The key battle to watch is between Big Tech's closed systems and the rise of more flexible open-source AI alternatives. As the industry is still in its infancy, focus on long-term investments in companies that can best solve the challenges of user experience and data privacy.

Elon’s go-to banker leads SpaceX IPO, SaaSination, Bejing’s robot Boom | Diet TBPN

Monitor news for the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, which is signaled to happen this year with Morgan Stanley (MS) leading the deal. Consider Apollo Global Management (APO) as an investment that is well-positioned to benefit from the AI-driven disruption of the SaaS software sector. To invest in the emerging humanoid robotics mega-industry, look to established players like Tesla (TSLA) for exposure. The strong demand for Alphabet's (GOOGL) 100-year bonds signals high confidence in its long-term durability, making it a core holding. Finally, prepare for the potential landmark IPOs of AI leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic, which could reshape tech investing.

Elon Musk's Banker, Beijing Pours $26B into Robot Boom, How Apollo Dodged SaaSsassination | Ashlee Vance, Vincenzo Landino, Ethan Thornton, Kris Marszalek, Cristóbal Valenzuela, Brad Svrluga, Dayna Grayson

Consider alternative asset manager Apollo (APO), which is benefiting from avoiding the software sector downturn and recently announced a $4 billion share buyback. Review holdings in traditional Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) companies, as the rise of AI threatens their core business models. Instead, focus on potential AI beneficiaries like data platform Snowflake (SNOW), whose services are essential for AI development. Gain exposure to the emerging humanoid robotics mega-industry through key players like Tesla (TSLA) as it develops its Optimus robot. Finally, prepare for the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, as its public debut is expected to be one of the largest financial events of the year.

Super Bowl Ad Reactions, ChatGPT launches ads, Jordi vs France | Diet TBPN

Consider Google (GOOGL) as a top AI investment, as its practical and consumer-friendly marketing for its Gemini AI is proving more effective than competitors'. The massive capital required for AI development signals a strong bullish trend for the entire AI infrastructure sector, especially companies involved with data centers. OpenAI's new ad-supported model for ChatGPT is a major monetization catalyst that could directly benefit its primary public partner, Microsoft (MSFT). Finally, Apple's (AAPL) highly effective marketing for Apple Music demonstrates its ability to aggressively gain market share, reinforcing the positive outlook for its services division.

FULL INTERVIEW: Bill Bishop Thinks China’s Military is Still Deeply Corrupt

The bull case for NVIDIA (NVDA) remains strong due to overwhelming demand for its AI chips, with even older models retaining high value. Porous US restrictions are allowing China to access top-tier chips like the H200, further bolstering NVIDIA's sales outlook. Consider the government-backed Chinese AI sector as a higher-risk opportunity, which is focused on practical applications rather than foundational models. Specifically, watch Alibaba (BABA) as it pursues the "medical AI" boom within this theme. Investors should be cautious about US drone companies, as private Chinese firm DJI dominates the market and the critical supply chain.

Super Bowl Ad Reactions, New Ferrari Design, Ads Launch in ChatGPT | Jason Fried, Bill Bishop, Jason Kelly, Dan Romero, Boris Sofman, Sara Hooker, Edward Mehr

Ginkgo Bioworks (DNA) presents a high-conviction opportunity due to its pivotal partnership with OpenAI, positioning it as key infrastructure for AI-driven scientific discovery. Google (GOOGL) is demonstrating a strong ability to monetize its AI through effective marketing for Gemini, signaling a key advantage in driving mainstream adoption. Conversely, investors should be extremely cautious with Hims & Hers (HIMS), which faces significant regulatory risk from the FDA that has already impacted its stock price. A major emerging investment theme is the intersection of AI and stablecoin payments, with credible projects like Tempo being built to facilitate autonomous agent transactions. Finally, keep an eye on the automation of physical industries, as venture capital flows into robotics companies solving labor shortages in construction and manufacturing.

The AI chip squeeze, Dirty Soda mania, OCC approves Palmer Luckey’s Erebor | Diet TBPN

A massive wave of AI infrastructure spending is creating a foundational, long-term investment opportunity. The primary bottleneck is currently in the semiconductor supply chain, presenting a clear opportunity for companies that control manufacturing capacity. As the "real bottleneck," Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) holds immense pricing power with its 90% market share in advanced chips. Within that ecosystem, ASML (ASML) has a monopoly on the essential EUV lithography machines required for chipmaking. NVIDIA (NVDA) is also a direct beneficiary, as a large portion of the hyperscalers' capital expenditure will be spent on its AI chips.

Chip Bottleneck vs. Energy Bottleneck, Amazon’s $200B Capex, Big Tech Earnings | Doug O'Laughlin, Max Levchin, TJ Parker, Arsalan Tavakoli

The primary investment opportunity is the advanced semiconductor supply chain, with TSMC and ASML identified as key bottlenecks with strong pricing power for the next 3-5 years. NVIDIA (NVDA) is a direct beneficiary of this trend, as massive new spending from hyperscalers directly fuels demand for its new Blackwell chips. For investors seeking growth outside of hardware, Affirm (AFRM) shows strong performance and a business model resistant to AI disruption due to its regulatory and capital moats. Conversely, Hims & Hers (HIMS) represents an extremely high-risk investment due to significant legal and FDA challenges from Novo Nordisk (NVO) over its unproven weight-loss drug. The market's punishment of Amazon (AMZN) for its high AI spending could create a long-term value opportunity for patient investors.

FULL INTERVIEW: Doug O'Laughlin Thinks Microsoft is OUT of the AI Race

Amazon (AMZN) and Nvidia (NVDA) are positioned as the primary beneficiaries of the massive AI infrastructure buildout. Amazon is set to capture a huge share of spending due to its $200 billion capital plan and superior execution in building data centers. Nvidia's leadership is secure as firming prices for its H100 and B200 GPUs signal that even competitors will need to buy its chips at scale. As a "picks and shovels" play on enterprise AI adoption, consider Accenture (ACN), which is becoming a key implementation partner through its work with Anthropic. Conversely, investors should re-evaluate holdings in traditional SaaS companies like ServiceNow (NOW) and HubSpot (HUBS), as their business models face an existential threat from new AI agent technology.

Anthropic’s Trust Nuke, OpenAI's new releases, Google Claims AI Crown | Diet TBPN

The ongoing "AI CapEx Arms Race" is a major bullish signal, as tech giants are spending aggressively in anticipation of massive future revenue. Consider long-term investment in leaders like Google (GOOGL), which is nearly doubling its capital spending to solidify its dominant position in AI. Meta Platforms (META) is another strong contender, committing up to $135 billion to ensure it remains at the frontier of AI development. Conversely, be cautious of companies like LegalZoom (LZ), whose stock dropped 15% after facing direct disruption from a new AI-powered legal tool. This highlights the risk for traditional software companies that are vulnerable to the emerging "SaaSpocalypse" theme.