TBPN
Podcast

TBPN

by John Coogan & Jordi Hays

526 episodes

Technology's daily show (formerly the Technology Brothers Podcast). Streaming live on X and YouTube from 11 - 2 PM PST Monday - Friday. Available on X, Apple, Spotify, and YouTube.
Ask about TBPNAnswers are grounded in this source's posts from the last 30 days.

Recent Posts

526 posts
Paramount Strikes Back, Ads In Gemini, Bieber’s Apple Beef | Diet TBPN

Google's (GOOGL) plan to integrate ads into its Gemini AI model is a significant bullish catalyst, playing directly to the company's core advertising strengths. This move is expected to create a major new revenue stream and gives Google a clear advantage in monetizing its AI investments. In the media sector, investors should monitor M&A activity, particularly potential consolidation involving Paramount (PARA) and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). A hypothetical acquisition of WBD by Netflix (NFLX) is viewed as a massive catalyst for NFLX, though it would face significant regulatory hurdles. For Apple (AAPL), the primary risk to monitor is executive turnover, as the departure of key talent could signal future challenges.

Netflix's Size is Not Size, Ads in Google Gemini, Prediction Markets on a Tear | Rich Greenfield, Delian Asparouhov, Sarah Harrelson, Morgan Housel, Andrew Pignanelli, Brian Mehler, Will Wilson

A major bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) presents a significant investment opportunity. Paramount (PARA) has launched a hostile all-cash offer of $30 per share to acquire the entire company. However, the WBD board has accepted a competing offer from Netflix (NFLX), which is valued at an estimated $31 to $32 per share and involves spinning off certain assets. The key catalyst for investors is the possibility that Paramount will be forced to raise its cash bid to $32 or more to win the deal. This creates a merger arbitrage scenario where WBD's stock could appreciate as the bidding war continues.

Netflix Acquires Warner Brothers, Apple’s Leadership Shakeup, SpaceX Prepares For IPO | Diet TBPN

Netflix's (NFLX) planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) assets faces significant regulatory hurdles and market skepticism due to its high price tag of 27.5 times expected earnings. Investors should watch for a potential rival bid from Paramount (PARA), which could create volatility and opportunity in WBD stock before the deal's targeted close in Q3 2026. Looking further ahead, SpaceX is a major future event to monitor, as the company is reportedly targeting an IPO in the second half of 2026 at a potential $800 billion valuation. In the broader Artificial Intelligence theme, the long-term value may shift from foundational models to the application layers built on top of them. This strategic insight is highlighted by Salesforce (CRM), which views the underlying AI models as becoming a commodity, emphasizing the importance of the software platforms that use them.

Live @ NYSE, Netflix to Acquire Warner Bros. | Keith Rabois, Emily Sundberg, Adam Faze

Consider an investment in Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), which has a pending acquisition offer from Netflix valued at $27 per share. A potential hostile all-cash bid from Paramount at $30 per share could create a bidding war, offering further upside for WBD shareholders. Looking ahead, prepare for a potential SpaceX IPO in the second half of 2026, which is reportedly targeting a massive $800 billion valuation. For thematic exposure to artificial intelligence, focus on the AI application layer, targeting companies in sectors like legal and defense tech. When evaluating these AI companies, prioritize those with positive gross margins, as this indicates a more sustainable business model.

Live From NYSE, The Gemini Win Scenario, OpenAI Monetizing With Ads | Diet TBPN

Google (GOOGL) presents a compelling long-term investment, with a strategy to leverage its financial strength to potentially offer its Gemini AI model for free and dominate the market. For the next five years, GPU makers NVIDIA (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are positioned for continued leadership as their flexible hardware is crucial for the

NYSE Gigastream, Jim Cramer Joins, 𝕏 Timeline Reactions | Eric Glyman, John Zito, Katie Deighton

Consider Google (GOOGL) as a core AI holding, as its dominant Gemini model and diminishing antitrust risks position it for long-term growth. For a "picks and shovels" approach to the AI build-out, Apollo (APO) offers exposure through its private credit financing of capital-intensive projects like data centers. Micron's (MU) strategic exit from low-margin consumer memory is viewed as a long-term positive that could lead to a higher valuation, presenting a potential opportunity after its recent stock decline. Analysts are bullish on Reddit (RDDT), believing its advertising business is significantly under-monetized and poised for substantial growth. Keep an eye on AMD (AMD), as a potential custom chip partnership with a major AI company could serve as a significant bullish catalyst.

Will AWS Buy Google’s TPUs, Remembering Claude The Gator, Ricursive Raises $35M | Diet TBPN

Google (GOOGL) is emerging as a key challenger to NVIDIA, with its TPU chips attracting major customers like Meta, potentially creating a significant new revenue stream. Amazon (AMZN) is also competing by developing its own Tranium 3 AI chip to reduce costs and reliance on NVIDIA. While NVIDIA (NVDA) remains the dominant leader, investors should monitor this rising competition which could pressure its high margins. Keep an eye on AI model developer Anthropic, which has reportedly hired IPO lawyers, signaling a potential public offering in the near future. Be extremely cautious of investing in private companies through secondary markets, as these often involve prohibited deals, extreme fees, and inflated valuations.

🟠 YC Demo Day, Will AWS Buy TPUs From Google? | Harj Taggar, Paul Graham & Jessica Livingston, Richard Wang, Philip Ho, Ali Attar, Kurush Dubash & More

Google (GOOGL) is a key investment opportunity as its TPU AI chips gain significant traction, with potential multi-billion dollar deals from major customers like Meta and Anthropic. To invest in the broader theme of AI supply chain diversification away from NVIDIA, consider AMD (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO) as they are positioned to be key secondary suppliers. While NVIDIA (NVDA) remains dominant, investors should monitor its high 56% net profit margin as a key indicator of whether competition is eroding its pricing power. Watch for announcements on whether Amazon (AMZN) will offer competitor chips on AWS, which would be a major victory for Google and a pragmatic win for Amazon. Finally, retail investors should be extremely cautious with private secondary market deals, which often carry inflated valuations and high counterparty risk.

The World’s Fastest Growing Defense Company, OpenAI’s Code Red, Google Strikes Back | Diet TBPN

Consider Rheinmetall (RHM.DE) as a primary beneficiary of the European rearmament trend, with the company guiding for sales of $58 billion by 2030. In the AI sector, Google (GOOGL) is presented as a durable long-term play, leveraging its immense resources and Gemini model to challenge early leaders. A potential

🔴 CODE RED 🔴, AWS CEO Joins, Tae Kim Tells All | Matt Garman, Tae Kim, Tarek Mansour, Matt Mullenweg, Jason Fried

A significant $100 million insider purchase in DoorDash (DASH) by a respected board member signals strong confidence and suggests the stock may be undervalued. For exposure to the European re-armament theme, consider defense company Rheinmetall (RHM.DE), which has recently pulled back 15% on peace rumors, potentially offering a better entry point. Google (GOOGL) is re-asserting its dominance in AI, with its competitive Gemini model and potential integration into Apple's Siri acting as major near-term catalysts. While NVIDIA (NVDA) faces long-term competition, its accelerating revenue and strong leading indicators from its networking business suggest its leadership will continue for the next 6-12 months. Finally, strong Black Friday sales growth for Shopify (SHOP) serves as a positive leading indicator for its upcoming quarterly earnings.

ChatGPT’s Three Year Anniversary, OpenAI Partners With Thrive, David Sacks Vs The New York Times | Diet TBPN

The primary investment opportunity in AI is shifting from software models to the competitive battle over the underlying hardware. Consider being cautious on NVIDIA (NVDA) as its high margins face a significant threat from emerging competition. As a compelling alternative, Alphabet (GOOGL) presents a strong investment case due to its vertically integrated AI stack. Google's custom TPU chips offer a powerful and cheaper hardware alternative that is already attracting major AI labs. Therefore, investors should view GOOGL as a direct way to invest in a powerful competitor to the NVIDIA ecosystem.

David Sacked by NYT, Sir Dylan Patel Joins, Kushner & Sama are Thriving | Ro Khanna, Jonathan Swerdlin, Cristóbal Valenzuela, Vincent Weisser, Ben Hylak, Alby Churven

The AI chip market is facing a major shift as competition heats up against NVIDIA (NVDA). Google's (GOOGL) custom Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) are emerging as a powerful and power-efficient alternative, representing a significant and underappreciated growth driver for the company. As the manufacturer of these TPUs, Broadcom (AVGO) is a direct "picks and shovels" investment to capitalize on this trend. The recent dip in AVGO's stock price may present an opportunity, as its value is directly tied to the success of Google's hardware ambitions. Investors bullish on the rise of non-NVIDIA AI hardware should consider Broadcom as a primary beneficiary of this market evolution.

Black Friday Gigastream with Shopify | Harley Finkelstein, Noel Mack, Sara Foster, Sean Frank, Kat Cole, Peter Rahal, Farhan Thawar, Torin Herndon, Kevin Harwood, Nish Samantray, Bené Eaton, Brian Keller

Shopify (SHOP) is a high-conviction investment due to its record-breaking sales growth and successful expansion into both enterprise clients and physical retail. In digital advertising, consider AppLovin (APP) for its exceptional performance and Google (GOOGL), as its YouTube ad platform is rapidly becoming a top channel for brands. Niche brand FIGS (FIGS) shows strong potential by successfully expanding its online scrubs business into profitable physical retail stores. The luxury sector shows a clear divergence, with "hard luxury" leader Richemont (CFR.SW) outperforming while fashion-focused Kering (KER.PA) continues to face significant challenges.

Ilya Sutskever on Dwarkesh Patel Reaction, NVIDIA’s Response to Google’s AI Progress, Trump Unveils Genesis | Diet TBPN

Despite negative headlines, the core investment case for NVIDIA (NVDA) remains strong due to overwhelming demand for its GPUs and a powerful software ecosystem. As the AI sector matures, consider diversifying beyond pure hardware plays into companies focused on new algorithmic research. Recent events highlight the risks of self-custody for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), creating an opportunity in companies that provide secure, insured digital asset custody. The emerging field of trait-based embryo selection, involving companies like Nucleus, is a high-risk, speculative area to avoid due to intense legal and ethical controversies. Ultimately, the primary conviction remains bullish on NVIDIA as it is expected to sell every GPU it produces for the foreseeable future.

Crémieux & Kian on Nucleus Genomics, Michael Kratsios on Genesis, Nvidia Responds to TPU Progress | Kian Sadeghi, Joe Weisenthal, Sebastian Siemiatkowski, David Faugno, Keller Rinaudo, Royce Branning

Google (GOOGL) is presented as a compelling investment due to its AI advancements with Gemini 3 and custom TPU chips, positioning it as a strong alternative to NVIDIA. Consider an investment in the newly public Klarna, which is aggressively adopting crypto by launching its own USDK stablecoin to disrupt traditional banking. Keep an eye on drone delivery company Zipline for a potential future IPO, as it is showing explosive growth and incredible product-market fit in the US. The White House's Project Genesis initiative suggests long-term investment opportunities in companies supporting scientific AI, particularly in biotechnology, critical minerals, and semiconductors. While demand for NVIDIA (NVDA) remains strong, investors should monitor increasing competition and the debate over its customers' GPU depreciation schedules as potential risks.

Reverse Engineering 200 AI Startups, Nucleus Genomics Controversy, Drone Hunting | Diet TBPN

The investment narrative around Google (GOOGL) has shifted from lagging to leading in the AI race, presenting a strong investment opportunity. The new Gemini 3 model is proving to be a legitimate competitor to ChatGPT, winning over influential users and driving renewed confidence in the company. Financial publications like Barron's have explicitly recommended buying GOOGL stock, calling it the "clear AI winner." Google's ability to leverage its trusted search brand within its AI products provides a powerful competitive advantage that others lack. This renewed momentum could signal sustained positive performance for the stock as the market re-evaluates its leadership position.

Reviewing the Best AI Apps, Anthropic Unveils Claude 4.5 Opus, Doug DeMuro | Sholto Douglas, Quinn Slack, Alex Stauffer & Alex Shevchenko

Consider investing in Google (GOOGL) as the market now views it as a clear AI winner, with its Gemini model emerging as a strong competitor to ChatGPT. Rivian (RIVN) presents a compelling opportunity in the EV space due to its strong vehicle value retention and dominant position in the full-size electric SUV market. Investors should be cautious with Apple (AAPL), as the company is experiencing a significant "brain drain" of key hardware talent to competitors like OpenAI, signaling risks to its future AI product pipeline. Similarly, Tesla's (TSLA) competitive advantages are eroding due to an aging product line and increased competition, suggesting its period of easy market dominance may be over. This overall shift in the AI landscape indicates a more competitive market where former underdogs are now gaining significant ground.

The State of AI: A Field Trip to TBPN’s Aura Farm + Today’s Top Tech Stories | Diet TBPN

Consider Microsoft (MSFT) as a core AI holding, as its strategic partnership with OpenAI positions it to capture a dominant share of the industry's value. Google (GOOGL) is another top-tier player, with its vertically integrated strategy of proprietary TPU chips and cloud services creating a powerful long-term profit engine. For a higher-growth opportunity, view AMD (AMD) as the "strong number two" challenger poised to take market share from NVIDIA in the AI chip space. For a more stable investment, Amazon (AMZN) represents the reliable "picks-and-shovels" infrastructure play essential to the entire AI ecosystem. Finally, be cautious with Apple (AAPL), as its current AI strategy is viewed as lagging competitors and may be more marketing than substance.

The State of AI: A Field Trip to TBPN’s Aura Farm + Today’s Top Tech Stories | Diet TBPN

While NVIDIA (NVDA) is the profitable leader, its recent stock sell-off after strong earnings suggests extreme expectations are priced in, warranting caution. Consider Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) as the strong number two, aggressively pivoting to capture the growing AI inference market as a high-growth alternative. Google (GOOGL) is positioned as a dominant "fat cat" with top-tier technology and a strategic plan to maximize cloud profits, making it a formidable long-term holding. Be wary of the hype around Apple (AAPL), as its AI is viewed as lagging competitors and may primarily be a marketing tactic to drive iPhone upgrades. For a more conservative infrastructure play, Amazon (AMZN) represents the steady "workhorse" reliably building the foundational data centers that power the AI industry.

Guide to the AI Barnyard, Eli Lilly Hits $1T Valuation, Has AI Ruined the Em Dash? | Julia Steinberg, Bobby Ghoshal

The GLP-1 weight loss drug market presents a massive opportunity, with Eli Lilly (LLY) positioned for significant long-term growth as it aims for over $100 billion in sales by 2034. For foundational AI exposure, NVIDIA (NVDA) remains the dominant leader with a potential path to $500 billion in revenue by 2026, though investors should be mindful of its high valuation. As a compelling alternative, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is rapidly gaining market share in AI chips and offers a way to invest in the same trend with potentially more upside. Beyond hardware, consider Google (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) as they leverage vast resources and strategic partnerships to dominate the AI software and cloud ecosystem. Conversely, be cautious with Apple's (AAPL) current AI strategy, which is viewed as lagging competitors, and avoid companies heavily reliant on the increasingly stressed private credit market.