TBPN
Podcast

TBPN

by John Coogan & Jordi Hays

526 episodes

Technology's daily show (formerly the Technology Brothers Podcast). Streaming live on X and YouTube from 11 - 2 PM PST Monday - Friday. Available on X, Apple, Spotify, and YouTube.
Ask about TBPNAnswers are grounded in this source's posts from the last 30 days.

Recent Posts

526 posts
CitriniPocalypse, Dot Com Lore, Gene-Edited Polo Horses | Alap Shah, Will Brown, Michelle Lee, Mike Annunziata

A potential takeover of Warner Brothers (WBD) by Paramount (PARA) presents a near-term opportunity, with a revised offer expected around $32 per share. For direct exposure to the AI boom, consider foundational companies like chipmaker NVIDIA (NVDA) and AI research leader Google (GOOGL). Keep an eye out for a potential Anthropic IPO within the next 3 to 6 months, which would provide a new pure-play investment in advanced AI. Be aware that the market is punishing software companies perceived as vulnerable to AI disruption, such as DoorDash (DASH) and ServiceNow (NOW). This disruption also poses a significant risk to legacy tech giants like IBM, whose core business is being challenged by new AI capabilities.

Why My Article Just Tanked the Market

The most certain investment in the AI trend is the semiconductor sector, which provides the essential "picks and shovels" for all AI development. Consider long-term positions in large tech companies like GOOGL and META, as their financial strength and network effects position them as likely winners. For direct exposure to a pure-play AI lab, watch for a potential Anthropic IPO, which is anticipated within the next 3 to 6 months. Conversely, be cautious with stocks like DASH and UBER, as their business models are at high risk of disruption from AI agents. As a secondary play on AI's infrastructure needs, consider opportunities in energy and commodities like copper.

Datacenter Protests, Paramount WB Bid Clears Key Hurdle, The Mansion Section | Diet TBPN

Consider Roblox (RBLX) as the clear winner in the metaverse, with user engagement now rivaling Steam, PlayStation, and Fortnite combined. An event-driven opportunity exists in the potential merger between Paramount (PARA) and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), which just cleared a key antitrust hurdle from the Department of Justice. In contrast, traditional game publishers like Take-Two (TTWO) face significant headwinds from free entertainment platforms such as TikTok. The bearish sentiment on Meta's (META) metaverse strategy is growing as reports indicate it is pivoting away from its VR-centric vision. For long-term exposure to the AI boom, consider the "picks and shovels" play of investing in data center infrastructure, but remain aware of potential regulatory hurdles.

Palmer Luckey LIVE from NYSE, Supreme Court Smackdown, Data Center Backlash | Ryan Petersen, Jonathan Gould, Diogo Mónica, Joe Lonsdale, John Shahidi, Will Bruey, Sam Levenback, Alex Heath

Data suggests Roblox (RBLX) is a high-conviction investment, as it is reportedly capturing nearly all recent growth in the non-China video game market. An active merger opportunity exists with Warner Brothers (WBD), as Paramount's (PARA) acquisition bid has cleared a key regulatory hurdle, increasing the deal's probability. WBD shareholders could see further upside from a potential bidding war with Netflix (NFLX). The buildout of AI infrastructure remains a powerful investment theme, creating massive demand for data centers. This trend directly benefits key suppliers like chipmaker NVIDIA (NVDA) and the advanced nuclear power sector required to meet new energy needs.

Palmer Luckey: Why I Started My Own Bank

A contrarian view suggests Meta (META) is a strong buy, as recent layoffs are a strategic pivot in its VR division, not a retreat from its ambitions. The company remains the largest financial backer in the virtual reality space and is expected to release significant new products over the next 12 months. Another high-conviction theme is the infrastructure enabling US dollar stablecoins, which provide critical 24/7/365 payment settlement for businesses. This technology is seen as so essential that all banks may be forced to adopt it within the next few years to remain competitive. Therefore, consider investing in the underlying companies building this financial plumbing rather than the stablecoins themselves.

The SaaSpocalypse is Cancelled, WB Back in Play, Zuck Grilled in LA Trial | Diet TBPN

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is a compelling M&A target, with a $27.75 per share bid from Netflix (NFLX) and a $30 per share offer from Paramount (PARA) creating upward pressure on the stock. The fear of an AI-driven "SaaSpocalypse" appears overblown, shifting focus to resilient tech giants successfully integrating artificial intelligence. Consider established leaders like Google (GOOGL) and Meta (META), which are using AI to enhance their core advertising models and re-accelerate growth. Shopify (SHOP) is also viewed as an "unsloppable" company whose essential e-commerce platform becomes more valuable with AI integration. These companies demonstrate that incumbent leaders with deep data moats are effectively turning the AI threat into a significant growth opportunity.

Post Earnings with Figma CEO Dylan Field

With 40% year-over-year growth, private company Figma is a prime candidate for a future IPO that investors should monitor closely. Its success highlights the powerful No-Code / Low-Code Movement, creating opportunities in platforms that empower non-technical users. Investors should also focus on the AI in Creative Software theme, seeking companies that use AI to augment human skill rather than simply replace it. As high-quality design becomes a key differentiator, the demand for premium creative tools is expected to increase. Look for public companies that lead in these themes for potential long-term growth.

SaaSpocalypse Cancelled, Palantir’s $17M Jet Bill, WBD x Netflix Latest | Dylan Field, Saagar Enjeti, Sigil Wen, Peter Morales, Erik Palitsch, Ljubisa Bajic

A bidding war for Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD) presents a merger arbitrage opportunity, with Paramount (PARA) offering $30 per share and Netflix (NFLX) bidding $27.75. Consider Shopify (SHOP) as a resilient e-commerce leader poised to benefit from AI, a view supported by a new investment from Altimeter's Brad Gerstner. A potential disconnect exists in Roblox (RBLX), whose stock is down significantly despite strong user growth, suggesting a possible value opportunity. Ethereum (ETH) is presented as an undervalued asset, trading below $2,000 even as major AI labs build tools for its ecosystem. Finally, freelance platforms like Fiverr (FVRR) and social media laggard Snap (SNAP) face strong headwinds from AI disruption and internal turmoil, signaling caution.

The AI lab market map, Robinhood brings startups to retail, GLPs & hedge funds | Diet TBPN

A long-term bullish signal for natural gas supports major producer EQT, as its CEO champions an "all of the above" global energy strategy that includes fossil fuels. For private market exposure, the new Robinhood Ventures fund offers access to startups like Databricks and Stripe, but investors should be extremely cautious. This closed-end fund carries a high risk of trading at a significant premium to its actual asset value, potentially causing large losses. In the AI sector, investment opportunities exist beyond the giants by focusing on smaller companies in specialized niches. Finally, monitor the space race between SpaceX and Blue Origin, as lucrative government contracts for the Artemis program will be a major catalyst.

Mapping Neo Labs, Unlocking LLM Growth, Evan Spiegel Live in the Ultradome | Blake Dodge, Freddie deBoer, Sohail Prasad, Travis Brashears

Consider investing in Snap (SNAP) as it successfully diversifies revenue with its $1 billion Snapchat+ subscription business and spins out its Specs hardware division. EQT Corporation (EQT) presents a long-term opportunity as its new "Energy Corps" initiative aims to position natural gas as a key fuel for global development. For exposure to top private tech companies like SpaceX and Anthropic, investors can look at the publicly traded fund Destiny Tech 100 (DXYZ). An activist investor is targeting Japanese toilet maker Toto Ltd., arguing it is an undervalued AI play due to its hidden business supplying the semiconductor industry. Be cautious with closed-end funds like DXYZ and the new Robinhood Ventures fund, as they can trade at a significant premium to the actual value of their underlying assets.

The Cournot Equation, Micron’s $200B Bet, Hollywood vs. Seedance 2.0 | Diet TBPN

The massive spending on AI creates a primary investment opportunity in the "picks and shovels" that power the industry. A high-conviction trade is Micron (MU), which is positioned to benefit from a severe supply crunch in the AI memory chip market. This supply/demand imbalance is expected to drive higher prices and profitability for memory manufacturers as demand from data centers outstrips supply. Investors can also gain exposure to the AI infrastructure build-out through major cloud providers like Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN). For those interested in event-driven situations, monitor potential merger talks between Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) and Paramount (PARA), which could cause significant stock price movement.

Why No One Talks Cournot, Hollywood vs. Seedance 2.0, Micron’s $200B Bet | Jon Caramanica, Haseeb Qureshi, Spenser Skates, Celine Halioua, Ankur Goyal, Reed Duchscher

Consider Micron (MU) as a long-term investment, as its massive $200 billion spending plan signals strong, sustained demand for AI memory chips. For broader AI exposure, focus on market leaders like Google (GOOGL) and Meta (META), which are positioned to become dominant, profitable platforms similar to today's cloud providers. **Apple (

Becoming Unsloppable, Anthropic’s Series G, The Mansion Section | Diet TBPN

Given the threat AI poses to traditional software, investors should exercise caution with Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) companies whose primary moat is complex code. Instead, consider investing in the "picks and shovels" of the AI boom, such as hardware providers NVIDIA (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO). Another "unsloppable" category includes companies with strong network effects, like marketplaces Uber (UBER) and Airbnb (ABNB), whose user bases are difficult for competitors to replicate. Similarly, firms that own vast libraries of intellectual property, such as Netflix (NFLX) and Spotify (SPOT), offer a durable defense against software commoditization. The core strategy is to prioritize businesses with defensible moats beyond just their software code.

Anthropic Hits $380B Valuation, Become Unsloppable, WSJ Mansion Section | Martin Shkreli, Connor Hayes, Alex Bouzari, Brett Adcock

Focus on investing in "unsloppable" companies whose value comes from durable advantages like network effects or economies of scale, not just complex software. Consider platforms like Google (GOOGL), Meta (META), and marketplaces like Airbnb (ABNB) that are difficult for new AI-powered startups to replicate. Be extremely cautious with the broader Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) sector, which faces a potential "newspaper-like decline" as AI dramatically lowers software development costs. For direct exposure to the AI hardware boom, consider a core position in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), the critical manufacturer of advanced chips. Re-evaluate your portfolio to favor companies with these defensible moats over software-only businesses facing intense future competition.

Anthropic’s $380B round, Paramount vs. WB, Higgsfield ragebait drama | Diet TBPN

The AI revolution is accelerating, creating an urgent window for investment as the opportunity to be "early" is closing fast. While major AI labs like Anthropic are private, their explosive growth is a strong bullish signal for key public partners NVIDIA (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT). Investors can gain exposure to this theme by considering these essential infrastructure providers. Additionally, the Apple (AAPL) Mac Mini is emerging as the preferred hardware for AI developers, potentially driving a new upgrade cycle for the company. This makes AAPL a compelling hardware-specific play on the broader AI trend.

Something Mini is Coming, Anthropic's $20B Round, Ackman’s Meta Move | Bryan Johnson, Andrew Huberman, Matthew Zeitlin, Joon Sung Park, David Risher, Todd McKinnon, Alexander Ksendzovsky

Consider Meta Platforms (META) as a high-conviction AI investment, validated by a large hedge fund purchase and strong sales of its AI-integrated Ray-Ban smart glasses. For a "picks and shovels" approach to AI infrastructure, look at Caterpillar (CAT) for providing essential power to data centers and Okta (OKTA) for securing the future AI workforce. The growing need for powerful local AI hardware also presents an opportunity in companies like Apple (AAPL). In the pharmaceutical sector, Eli Lilly (LLY) stands out with its potential trillion-dollar weight-loss drug, retatrutide, which could dominate the market. Monitor for new regulations restricting peptide sales, as this would be a significant catalyst for LLY.

AI Isn’t Covid, FBI probes Tai Lopez, Mistral’s $2B Sweden bet | Diet TBPN

Consider META as a top AI investment, following billionaire Bill Ackman's recent $2 billion purchase for his firm. The core thesis is that AI will significantly boost META's advertising business and accelerate future products like its smart glasses. In contrast, investors should re-evaluate their Software as a Service (SaaS) holdings, as AI threatens to disrupt the sector. Consider reducing exposure to SaaS companies with weak competitive moats that rely on customer lock-in, which AI could easily automate away. Finally, be aware that emerging private companies like Europe's Mistral AI are becoming serious competitors to US tech giants like Amazon and Microsoft.

Is Something Big Happening?, Tai Lopez Charged in $122M Fraud, U.S. Adds 130K Jobs | Harley Finkelstein, Vlad Tenev, Matt Shumer, Jeff Lawson, Sam Blond, John Ferrara

BlackRock's partnership to bring its BUIDL token to Uniswap is a major institutional endorsement, making the UNI token a compelling investment in the DeFi space. Billionaire investor Bill Ackman's new $2 billion stake signals strong conviction in Meta (META) as a top beneficiary of the Artificial Intelligence boom. Consider Shopify (SHOP) as it effectively integrates AI to enhance its e-commerce platform, showing strong growth and a defensible business model. Robinhood (HOOD) presents a potential growth opportunity as it expands into new areas like prediction markets while using AI to boost productivity. Investors should re-evaluate software holdings, favoring companies with durable advantages over those whose complex code can now be replicated by AI.

FULL INTERVIEW: Why I Spent $70M to buy AI.com

The primary investment theme is the massive growth potential in consumer-facing AI, which is viewed as a significantly larger opportunity than early cryptocurrency. While large incumbents like Google (GOOGL) and Meta (META) have distribution advantages, their success is not guaranteed. Investors should monitor these companies' ability to create user-friendly and "sticky" AI applications that achieve high user retention. The key battle to watch is between Big Tech's closed systems and the rise of more flexible open-source AI alternatives. As the industry is still in its infancy, focus on long-term investments in companies that can best solve the challenges of user experience and data privacy.

Elon’s go-to banker leads SpaceX IPO, SaaSination, Bejing’s robot Boom | Diet TBPN

Monitor news for the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, which is signaled to happen this year with Morgan Stanley (MS) leading the deal. Consider Apollo Global Management (APO) as an investment that is well-positioned to benefit from the AI-driven disruption of the SaaS software sector. To invest in the emerging humanoid robotics mega-industry, look to established players like Tesla (TSLA) for exposure. The strong demand for Alphabet's (GOOGL) 100-year bonds signals high confidence in its long-term durability, making it a core holding. Finally, prepare for the potential landmark IPOs of AI leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic, which could reshape tech investing.