Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger LIVE on TBPN, Intel Stock Crashes, WSJ Mansion Section | Darren Rovell, Will Manidis, David Senra
Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger LIVE on TBPN, Intel Stock Crashes, WSJ Mansion Section | Darren Rovell, Will Manidis, David Senra
Podcast1 hr 55 min
Listen to Episode
Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider Alphabet (GOOGL) for a long-term watchlist: the selloff creates a potential opportunity, but confirm that AI is not materially weakening Search and that Cloud and other businesses keep growing before buying. Avoid chasing Intel (INTC)’s decline until its manufacturing execution and customer demand show measurable progress; past optimism about government support is not proof of a turnaround. Treat Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B/BRK.A) as a resilient business to assess using cash flow and margin of safety, not as a confirmed buy based on one day’s relative strength. Be cautious with Bitcoin (BTC) and centralized crypto platforms after the Binance hack; the smaller price decline does not remove custody and cybersecurity risks.

Detailed Analysis

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A / BRK.B)

  • Berkshire was described as up while most of the market was falling, and the hosts called it the only company they had found trading in the green that day. Its market value was cited at about $1.17 trillion.
  • The discussion also said Berkshire had recently “backed up the truck” on Alphabet, though no purchase size or timing details were provided.
  • In closing, the hosts invoked Buffett and Munger’s emphasis on margin of safety, buying businesses with cash flow and value, and thinking over long holding periods.

Takeaways

  • Berkshire’s relative strength was a notable contrast with the broad selloff, but a single day’s performance does not establish a lasting trend.
  • The discussion favors focusing on business value and resilience rather than reacting to short-term market moves. It did not provide a Berkshire price target or a specific buy recommendation.

Alphabet / Google (GOOGL)

  • Alphabet’s shares reportedly suffered their worst day on record, amid concern that AI could disrupt Google Search and its growth and profits. The hosts said the selloff erased about $500 billion in value.
  • The counterargument presented was that Alphabet is diversified across the AI stack: it has a frontier-model effort, a fast-growing cloud business, in-house chips, and large advertising businesses.
  • Berkshire was said to have recently made a substantial investment in Alphabet.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presents Alphabet as a contested AI investment: investors are weighing potential pressure on Search against the company’s cloud, chip, model, and advertising assets.
  • Track whether AI changes search economics and whether Alphabet’s other businesses can keep growing. The transcript gives no price target or timeline for a recovery.

Intel (INTC)

  • Intel was described as having fallen about 30% in one day and 27% over five days. The discussion said it was roughly 50% below its reported peak of $140 per share, while still valued at about $336 billion.
  • The hosts linked earlier optimism to U.S. government investment and hopes that hyperscalers would use Intel’s fabs. They said the stock had returned close to where it was before that optimism began.
  • Reactions to Intel’s earnings call were strongly negative; commentators quoted on the show criticized the company’s performance and leadership’s presentation.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to a gap between expectations for Intel’s manufacturing business and investors’ assessment of its execution.
  • Treat past enthusiasm about government backing or prospective customer demand as unproven until results demonstrate progress. The transcript mentions no specific recommendation or price target.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • Will Manidis described Meta as particularly well positioned to spread AI capabilities globally. He cited WhatsApp’s reach, payment rails, and Meta’s AI research effort.
  • Meta was also listed among large technology stocks falling during the market selloff, though the hosts said it was down only about 2% at that point.

Takeaways

  • The bullish case discussed rests on Meta combining a large user network with payments and AI capabilities—not solely on building models.
  • The transcript does not give a valuation, price target, or specific recommendation; the investment case depends on those assets translating into durable business value.

ADT (ADT)

  • Manidis cited Thrive’s purchase of ADT as an example of a business that could benefit from AI. He argued that ADT’s network of cameras and other sensors could be valuable as AI improves.
  • He suggested home security may be an earlier and more practical robotics use case than household chores.

Takeaways

  • The discussion’s positive thesis is about the potential value of ADT’s installed sensor network and security applications.
  • Consider whether that potential can become measurable business value; the transcript does not discuss ADT’s valuation, current financial performance, or a price target.

Reddit (RDDT)

  • The hosts said Reddit was selling off after its CEO described Google as crawling the site while sending less traffic to it. They discussed how Google’s AI answers may give users information without sending them to Reddit.
  • Reddit was said to be considering a login requirement for access. The CEO’s quoted position was that Reddit does not control Google and must focus on its own platform.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlights a potential traffic and monetization risk for websites that rely on search referrals.
  • Watch whether Reddit can retain users and generate activity directly on its platform if search traffic remains weaker. The transcript gives no price target.

DoorDash (DASH)

  • DoorDash said it had received only several hundred orders in total from personal AI agents, suggesting the channel was still early.
  • The hosts noted that ordering food is already easy and habitual for many customers, which may limit the immediate value of an agent. They also described possible future uses, such as automating recurring office lunch orders.

Takeaways

  • The agent channel was presented as a possible future opportunity, not a meaningful current source of orders.
  • Separate DoorDash’s established business from expectations about AI-driven ordering; the transcript does not provide a specific recommendation or forecast.

Salesforce (CRM)

  • The hosts reported that Salesforce had bought Rune Technologies, describing the deal as a positive outcome for Rune and saying the product appeared to fit Salesforce’s business.
  • They framed the acquisition as part of Salesforce’s effort to compete in a market where AI-related capabilities are increasingly important.

Takeaways

  • The acquisition may strengthen Salesforce’s product offering, but the transcript provides no purchase price or expected financial contribution.
  • The deal alone is not enough to assess the investment case; the discussion offered no valuation or price target.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The discussion said Bitcoin’s price had fallen about 4% over five days following the Binance hack, compared with a reported 25%–27% decline after the Mt. Gox hack in 2014.
  • The hosts interpreted Bitcoin’s smaller move as a sign that the market may be less dependent on centralized exchanges than in the past.

Takeaways

  • The comparison suggests greater resilience in this particular episode, but it does not eliminate the risks associated with crypto exchanges, custody, or market volatility.
  • The transcript does not give a Bitcoin price target or recommend a particular allocation.

Binance

  • The hosts discussed a major hack attributed by cybersecurity researchers to a North Korean hacking group. The figures cited were $6.3 billion stolen, about $3 billion frozen by Tether, Circle, and other firms, and roughly $3.3 billion remaining under hackers’ control.
  • Binance’s Secure Asset Fund for Users was said to hold about $1 billion, which the hosts described as far smaller than the losses discussed.
  • The conversation questioned how an engineer’s compromised laptop could become a point of failure for such large sums. It also noted that a crypto-market decline could reduce the value of an emergency reserve held in crypto assets.

Takeaways

  • The incident underscores operational, cybersecurity, and reserve-management risks in centralized crypto platforms.
  • The discussion’s key diligence questions are how exchange controls prevent single points of failure and whether reserves would remain adequate during a market decline. Binance was discussed as a platform, not as a publicly traded stock.

Tether and Circle

  • Tether and Circle were said to have helped freeze about $3 billion in assets connected to the Binance hack.

Takeaways

  • The episode demonstrates that stablecoin issuers may be able to intervene in some circumstances, but it also highlights the role of centralized controls in parts of the crypto ecosystem.
  • The transcript does not offer a view on either company’s valuation or a specific stablecoin investment.

Polymarket

  • The hosts reported that approximately 700 users were affected by a hack involving a third-party vendor based in the UK, with about $2.7 million stolen from users’ wallets.
  • Trading on the platform was paused for several hours and later resumed. The hosts noted that a pause can disrupt users who want to trade while an event is resolving.

Takeaways

  • The incident highlights third-party vendor and wallet-security risks, as well as the possibility of trading interruptions.
  • Consider platform security and the practical consequences of a trading pause when evaluating services of this kind. Polymarket was discussed as a platform, not as a publicly traded security.

Hyperliquid

  • Manidis said he believed Hyperliquid was an important crypto-market primitive for the financial system he expects to develop alongside AI. He also acknowledged that this enthusiasm was not universally shared.

Takeaways

  • The transcript presents Hyperliquid as a speculative infrastructure thesis, not a specific token recommendation.
  • Treat the idea as a high-uncertainty view: the discussion offered no valuation, price target, or timeline.

AI-related investing and macroeconomic themes

  • Manidis argued that businesses could become more valuable as AI capabilities improve, particularly businesses that can distribute intelligence at scale. He called this group “commanding heights.”
  • He proposed that AI models may increasingly transact using U.S. dollar payment systems, potentially encouraging further global dollar use. At the same time, he argued that financing the AI build-out could require substantial dollar creation and contribute to dollar inflation.
  • He said equities could be attractive relative to cash in that scenario, describing long equities as “short to the dollar.” He also argued that interest rates could rise substantially if technology progress creates strong demand for capital.
  • He predicted leaner firms, with some work shifted to models, and potential consolidation in regulated sectors such as community banking and hospitals. He tied consolidation partly to the cost of defending against cybersecurity threats.
  • The hosts discussed a separate risk that cyberattacks could make online banking less secure, even raising the possibility that customers might need to visit banks to access cash.

Takeaways

  • The transcript offers a strong but speculative AI-and-inflation thesis, not a consensus forecast. It points investors toward businesses that may benefit from AI deployment while warning that rates, inflation, cybersecurity, and industry disruption could all change.
  • Avoid treating “own equities” as a complete portfolio prescription: the discussion did not specify which equities to buy, how to allocate, or how quickly these changes might occur.

Collectibles and other alternative assets

  • Darren Rovell described collectibles as a market with potentially large values and distinctive niches. Examples included Warren Buffett-signed dollar bills reportedly rising from $2,000–$3,000 to $10,000–$15,000, with one sale at $24,000; a reported $82,000 sale for a ticket from the first UFC event; a Jordan game-worn jersey said to have sold for $14 million; and a proposed $50 million deal for a 1952 Mickey Mantle PSA 10 card.
  • A Nanotyrannus skeleton was said to have sold for $47 million, far above a reported $7 million estimate. Rovell suggested that smaller size can make a collectible easier to display and therefore more appealing to wealthy buyers.
  • He also discussed collectibles linked to emerging sports leagues and said teams and brands often fail to preserve potentially valuable items.
  • Risks mentioned included counterfeit signatures, authentication challenges, unclear fossil ownership rights, uncertainty about how much original bone a dinosaur skeleton contains, and difficulty shipping or insuring valuable collectibles. He said collectible shipments could have limited insurance coverage and could be exposed to theft.

Takeaways

  • Collectibles may offer idiosyncratic opportunities, but the examples are high-profile sales and do not establish reliable returns for typical buyers.
  • Before considering a collectible, account for authenticity, legal ownership, storage, insurance, shipping, and the possibility that resale demand may be limited. The transcript offers no general price target or recommendation.

Luxury real estate

  • The hosts discussed a Malibu development intended to sell five homes for nearly $500 million in total. Four of the five homes were reportedly unsold, and entities tied to the developer filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
  • They also cited the earlier “The One” mansion project in Beverly Hills as an example of a high-end development that sold out of bankruptcy for about $120 million, far below the developer’s ambition.
  • The conversation emphasized that location, beach access, shared driveways, and buyer preferences can matter more than the scale or features of a luxury property.

Takeaways

  • The examples caution against assuming that expensive homes or ambitious developments will find buyers at their target prices.
  • Luxury real estate can carry substantial execution and resale risk; the transcript does not recommend buying either development or provide a general property-market forecast.

Other large-cap stocks mentioned

  • The hosts gave a snapshot of market declines: Tesla (TSLA) and Microsoft (MSFT) were each down about 2%, NVIDIA (NVDA) was down almost 6%, and Amazon (AMZN) was down almost 3%. These were market updates, not company-specific investment analyses.
  • They also cited a sharp selloff in the Nasdaq, describing it as down about 3.34% at one point, and said the Dow was down about 1.13%.

Takeaways

  • These figures show the breadth of the day’s volatility, but the transcript provides no separate thesis, price target, or recommendation for these companies.
Ask about this postAnswers are grounded in this post's content.
Episode Description
(00:10) - Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger LIVE on TBPN 🎃 (09:01) - Binance Faces $6.3B Hack Fallout (15:09) - Intel Stock Crashes (17:35) - Polymarket Hit by Wallet Breach (19:36) - WSJ Mansion Section (23:29) - Darren Rovell discusses his passion for sports, business, and historical collectibles, drawing on his expertise as a collector and entrepreneur. He explores rare Warren Buffett memorabilia, autograph values, shipping risks, preservation strategies, and the booming market for high-end items such as sports cards, jerseys, and dinosaur fossils. (53:26) - Will Manidis discusses *Commanding Heights*, his new book co-authored with Joe Roberts, which examines how rapidly advancing AI could reshape national power, currencies, financial markets, businesses, and labor. He argues that the United States and China may dominate frontier AI, global transactions could increasingly rely on the dollar, and firms positioned to benefit from scaling intelligence—such as Meta—could gain significant advantages. (01:11:42) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (01:31:51) - David Senra is the creator and host of Founders, a popular business podcast where he studies the biographies of history’s greatest entrepreneurs, including Steve Jobs, John D. Rockefeller, and Estée Lauder. Through hundreds of episodes, he explores the habits, strategies, and philosophies behind building enduring companies, with a particular focus on founder psychology and the lessons of business history. He also launched a second podcast, David Senra, featuring long-form interviews with living founders and business leaders such as Daniel Ek, Michael Dell, and Jimmy Iovine. TBPN is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.com Public - https://public.com Cisco - https://www.cisco.com Console - https://www.console.com CrowdStrike - https://www.crowdstrike.com Figma - https://www.figma.com MongoDB - https://www.mongodb.com NYSE - https://www.nyse.com Railway - https://railway.com Shopify - https://www.shopify.com Codex - http://openAI.com/codex Follow TBPN:  https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tbpn/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive
About TBPN
TBPN

TBPN

By John Coogan & Jordi Hays

Technology's daily show (formerly the Technology Brothers Podcast). Streaming live on X and YouTube from 11 - 2 PM PST Monday - Friday. Available on X, Apple, Spotify, and YouTube.