Meet the New Thiel Fellows, GPT 5.5, Thoma Bravo Loses Medallia | Victor Boyd, Alex Shieh, Nick Dobroshinsky, Ishan Gupta, Antoni Kiszka, Milan Lustig, Galen Mead, Aubrey Niederhoffer, Samuel Carvalho, Claire Wang
Meet the New Thiel Fellows, GPT 5.5, Thoma Bravo Loses Medallia | Victor Boyd, Alex Shieh, Nick Dobroshinsky, Ishan Gupta, Antoni Kiszka, Milan Lustig, Galen Mead, Aubrey Niederhoffer, Samuel Carvalho, Claire Wang
Podcast2 hr 11 min
Listen to Episode
Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Investors should consider Intel (INTC) as a potential turnaround play following a strong earnings beat and Q2 guidance that significantly exceeded Wall Street estimates. The release of GPT 5.5 signals a major shift toward "agentic" AI workflows, creating opportunities in companies that automate complex tasks like Juicebox for recruiting or Anti-Fraud Company for government oversight. Be cautious with highly leveraged, non-founder-led software firms like Medallia, as high interest rates and AI-native competitors like Aru continue to threaten legacy SaaS business models. Tesla (TSLA) remains a core holding after beating revenue expectations, though investors should note that SpaceX is now trending toward a higher valuation than the automaker. For those looking at emerging markets, Brazil offers a compelling macro thesis due to its strong renewable energy infrastructure and B2B wholesale growth through startups like Praso.

Detailed Analysis

Medallia (Private)

Thoma Bravo is reportedly handing over the software company Medallia to creditors (including Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, and Antares Capital) after restructuring negotiations failed. • The move represents a $5.1 billion equity wipeout for Thoma Bravo, which purchased the firm for $6.4 billion in 2021. • Risk Factors: * Debt Burden: The company struggled under $3 billion of debt with floating interest rates that ballooned as rates rose. * AI Disruption: Concerns exist that Medallia’s core service (analyzing customer/employee feedback) is being supplanted by AI-native startups (e.g., Aru). * Execution Issues: Creditors cited underperformance due to poor execution and sales reps failing to hit quotas.

Takeaways

Private Equity Caution: This serves as a "cockroach" warning for the software sector, highlighting the danger of high-leverage deals made during the low-interest-rate era (2021). • Founder-Led Advantage: The discussion suggests that non-founder-led SaaS companies are struggling to compete against leaner, AI-driven competitors. • Potential Turnaround: If creditors successfully restructure the debt, there is a possibility for Medallia to pivot toward AI features to accelerate the top line.


OpenAI / GPT 5.5

GPT 5.5 has been released, described as a "new class of intelligence" designed for complex goals and agentic workflows. • Key Capabilities: Excels at writing/debugging code, researching, operating software, and moving across different tools autonomously. • Performance: Matches the speed (latency) of GPT 5.4 while delivering a significant step up in reasoning and task completion.

Takeaways

Shift to Agents: The focus is moving from simple chat interfaces to "agents" that can perform "real work" and carry tasks through to completion without constant human prompting. • Competitive Moat: The U.S. government is reportedly forming a task force to prevent "adversarial distillation" (foreign entities, specifically China, using API queries to copy the model's logic).


Intel (INTC)

Intel stock rose 15% after-hours following a strong Q1 earnings report that beat analyst expectations on both top and bottom lines. • Growth Drivers: Strong data center sales and Q2 guidance that significantly exceeded Wall Street's estimates ($13.8B–$14.8B vs. $13B expected).

Takeaways

Data Center Recovery: The beat suggests Intel is successfully capturing demand in the data center and AI infrastructure space, despite previous skepticism. • Sentiment Shift: After a period of underperformance, the aggressive guidance suggests a potential fundamental turnaround for the semiconductor giant.


Tesla (TSLA)

Tesla reported Q1 revenue of $22.4 billion (beating the $21.4B estimate) and net income of $1.45 billion (beating the $1.17B estimate). • Sentiment: CEO Elon Musk is reportedly adopting a more cautious tone regarding timelines, focusing on resetting expectations around fundamentals.

Takeaways

Valuation Flip: The transcript notes that SpaceX (valued at ~$1.75T) is now trending toward being a more valuable entity than Tesla (~$1.1T–$1.2T). • Operational Focus: Despite the beat, the focus remains on "getting realistic" about delivery timelines and autonomous driving milestones.


Investment Themes & Sectors

The "Thiel Fellowship" Startups (Early-Stage Opportunities)

The podcast highlighted several emerging themes from the new class of entrepreneurs: • Autonomous Logistics: Victor Boyd is building custom autonomous forklifts from the ground up, arguing that retrofitting existing hardware is unreliable. • Anti-Fraud Tech: Alex Shieh (Anti-Fraud Company) is using AI to identify government contract fraud, targeting a $600 billion annual problem with a "bounty hunter" business model. • Democratized Equity Research: Nick Dobroshinsky (EveryTicker) is using LLMs to provide institutional-grade research on small and micro-cap stocks that Wall Street ignores. • AI Recruiting: Ishan Gupta (Juicebox) is automating the "headhunter" layer of recruiting, moving beyond simple software (ATS) into agent-based talent sourcing.

AI Distillation & Security

• There is a growing concern regarding "Adversarial Distillation," where foreign entities use thousands of proxy accounts to "steal" the intelligence of frontier models like OpenAI and Anthropic. • Insight: Investors should watch for increased regulation and "KYC" (Know Your Customer) requirements for AI API providers, which could impact usage growth but protect intellectual property.

Emerging Markets (Brazil & Africa)

Brazil (Praso): Focus on B2B wholesale infrastructure for SMBs. Brazil is positioned well due to its renewable energy matrix (70%+) and rare earth metal reserves. • Africa (Swoop): Building a "Super App" starting with food delivery in Nigeria, with the goal of pivoting into high-margin peer-to-peer payments.

Ask about this postAnswers are grounded in this post's content.
Episode Description
(02:15) - Thoma Bravo Loses Medallia (10:28) - GPT 5.5 Released (11:32) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (29:23) - Victor Boyd, co-founder and CTO of Cavalla Industries, discusses the development of autonomous forklifts aimed at delivering goods anywhere within hours. He explains the challenges faced with retrofitting existing forklifts due to their inconsistent internal designs, leading the company to build their own forklift to ensure reliability and scalability. Boyd also highlights the integration of teleoperation using Xbox controllers, allowing remote human intervention when necessary, and emphasizes the importance of delivering consistent results to customers, regardless of the level of autonomy achieved. (41:03) - Alex Shieh, a former Brown University student and co-founder of The Antifraud Company, discusses his firm's mission to utilize AI models for detecting government fraud and pursuing legal action against fraudsters, operating on a contingency basis where they earn a percentage of recovered funds. He explains the company's approach of combining open-source intelligence with AI to proactively identify fraudulent activities, emphasizing the importance of outbound investigations over waiting for insider tips. Shieh also highlights the significant impact of fraud on taxpayer dollars and the necessity of restoring trust in public institutions through efficient fraud detection and recovery efforts. (52:10) - Nick Dobroshinsky, the youngest-ever Thiel Fellow, has developed Every Ticker, a platform that utilizes large language models to generate high-quality research reports on all U.S. stocks, particularly focusing on small, mid, and micro-cap stocks often overlooked by Wall Street. He emphasizes that Every Ticker does not provide financial advice but instead aggregates and synthesizes research to help investors make informed decisions. Currently, the platform offers over 5,000 free reports, with plans to transition to a subscription model in the future. (01:00:59) - Spirit Airlines Eyes $500M Rescue (01:02:34) - Ishan Gupta is the Co-Founder and CTO of Juicebox, an AI-powered recruiting platform that leverages large language models to help companies identify and engage top talent. In the conversation, he discusses how Juicebox's AI agents analyze various data sources to find suitable candidates, reducing spam by targeting outreach more effectively. He also emphasizes the importance of job seekers showcasing their work through blogs, open-source contributions, and projects to enhance their visibility to AI-driven recruitment tools. (01:12:55) - Antoni Kiszka is the co-founder of Perpetual, a company aiming to create a derivatives exchange for a wide range of assets. He discusses their initial focus on meme coins to test their technology, with plans to expand into traditional finance markets, including assets like hydrogen, which currently lack derivatives. Kiszka also highlights the inspiration drawn from Kalshi's regulatory approach and emphasizes the need for derivatives that provide real value beyond speculative trading. (01:20:39) - Milan Lustig, co-founder of Opt32 and a Thiel Fellow, discusses his company's mission to develop modern full-stack compute infrastructure for physical autonomy, encompassing software and custom hardware solutions for devices like robots, drones, and autonomous vehicles. He explains their initial focus on the robotics sector, starting with software development and gradually progressing toward hardware integration, aiming to optimize machine learning models for deployment on resource-constrained devices. Lustig also highlights the importance of adapting computer science education to emphasize higher-level theoretical skills over low-level implementation, in response to advancements in artificial intelligence. (01:32:00) - Galen Mead, founder of a general research company focused on developing computer use models, discusses his transition from university dropout to full-time researcher, emphasizing the importance of computer use as a universal form factor for human-computer interaction. He highlights the potential of training policies on extensive supervised data from diverse environments to create base models for actions, drawing parallels to early work by DeepMind on games. Mead anticipates that by the end of the year, users will interact with complex software like Premiere Pro through prompts, similar to the shift from IDEs to command-line interfaces in software engineering. (01:39:10) - Aubrey Niederhoffer, a young entrepreneur who founded his first company in Africa at 15, now resides in Nigeria, focusing on building a super app for the continent. He discusses the nascent state of food delivery in Nigeria, highlighting high prices and limited competition, and sees an opportunity to offer more affordable services. By integrating food delivery with digital payments, he aims to create a comprehensive platform, drawing inspiration from successful super apps like WeChat and Caspi. (01:49:50) - Samuel Carvalho, originally from Recife, Brazil, attended Stanford University before returning to Brazil to found Prazo, a company aiming to modernize the wholesale sector by providing end-to-end infrastructure solutions. He discusses how Prazo connects manufacturers with small and medium-sized businesses through a tech-enabled platform that manages logistics and credit, addressing challenges like high customer acquisition costs and the need for short-term loans. Carvalho also highlights the significant market potential in Brazil and Latin America, emphasizing the opportunity to build a multibillion-dollar company by expanding beyond the initial focus on restaurants. (02:00:36) - Claire Wang, a former junior at MIT studying electrical engineering and computer science, has a keen interest in neurotechnology, particularly whole brain emulation, starting with simpler organisms like C. elegans. She discusses her decision to pursue independent research over joining existing brain-computer interface companies, emphasizing the importance of making personal scientific bets in fundamental science. Wang also highlights the current favorable environment for independent biotech research, citing advancements in AI, alternative science funding, and increased openness to research risks in startups. Follow TBPN:  https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive
About TBPN
TBPN

TBPN

By John Coogan & Jordi Hays

Technology's daily show (formerly the Technology Brothers Podcast). Streaming live on X and YouTube from 11 - 2 PM PST Monday - Friday. Available on X, Apple, Spotify, and YouTube.