Diet TBPN: October 16th, 2025
Diet TBPN: October 16th, 2025
Podcast22 min 20 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider **Google (GOOGL) for long-term growth, as its recent AI breakthrough in cancer research signals a major expansion into the biotechnology market. **Broadcom (AVGO) is a strong "picks-and-shovels" AI play, further validated by its recent win of Anthropic as a major AI chip customer. For broader exposure to

Detailed Analysis

Google (GOOGL)

  • Google announced a significant breakthrough in AI-driven cancer research. Their C2S scale 27B foundation model (based on their Gemma architecture) generated a new hypothesis about cancer cell behavior that was then experimentally validated in living cells.
  • The hosts described this as a potential "ChatGPT moment for AI and bio," highlighting Google's ability to apply AI to complex scientific problems, not just consumer products.
  • This achievement is seen as a major public relations and strategic win for Google, especially as competitor OpenAI was dealing with negative press. It reinforces the narrative that Google's massive resources allow it to pursue long-term, high-impact research projects.
  • The podcast also noted that Anthropic is set to become a major customer of Broadcom's AI chips (TPUs) and that an announcement of a new funding round for Anthropic from Google is expected soon. This indicates Google is pursuing a multi-faceted AI strategy, both internally and through investments.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The discussion was very positive about Google's AI capabilities beyond its core search and advertising business.
  • Long-Term Growth Driver: The breakthrough in AI for biology validates Google's long-term R&D investments. Success in this area could open up entirely new, massive markets in healthcare and life sciences.
  • Competitive Advantage: Google's ability to fund and execute on these "moonshot" projects is a key differentiator. The expected investment in Anthropic shows they are also strategically building an ecosystem of AI partners.

OpenAI (Private Company)

  • Financial figures from the Financial Times were discussed: 800 million weekly active users, $13 billion in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), but also a massive cash burn of $20 billion per year.
  • The company is projecting "historically unprecedented" revenue growth, aiming to go from $10 billion to $100 billion in revenue over the next three years. This timeline is significantly faster than it took companies like NVIDIA, Amazon, or Google to achieve similar growth.
  • The hosts noted that while the growth targets seem "ludicrous," they may not be "impossible." Monetization is still in its early days, with no advertising product yet. Future revenue could come from an ads business and taking a percentage of transactions driven through partnerships with companies like Walmart and Shopify.
  • A comparison was made to Uber, which was also heavily criticized for burning cash in a "capital war" but has since matured into a highly profitable company with a market cap of nearly $200 billion.

Takeaways

  • High-Risk, High-Reward Profile: OpenAI represents a massive bet on the future of AI. Its private valuation of half a trillion dollars is considered "mental" given it loses more money than it makes in revenue.
  • Path to Profitability: The key for investors (in backers like Microsoft or in a potential future IPO) is whether OpenAI can "flip the switch" on monetization. The launch of an advertising platform and deeper integration with e-commerce partners will be critical milestones to watch.
  • Execution Risk: The primary risk is that the technology doesn't deliver value as quickly as investors are betting. If the unprecedented revenue growth doesn't materialize, the company's valuation could face a significant correction.

Broadcom (AVGO)

  • It was mentioned that AI company Anthropic is Broadcom's fifth major customer for its AI chips (TPUs).
  • This is a significant customer win, demonstrating that Broadcom's role in the AI hardware boom extends beyond its well-known relationship with major players like Apple.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Signal: Gaining Anthropic as a customer strengthens Broadcom's position as a key "picks-and-shovels" play in the AI industry.
  • Customer Diversification: This news shows that Broadcom is successfully diversifying its AI customer base, reducing reliance on any single company and capturing growth from various players in the AI ecosystem.

Investment Theme: AI in Biotechnology

  • The Google cancer research announcement was the main catalyst for this discussion. The hosts pondered if this was the start of a "fast takeoff" for AI-driven drug discovery.
  • The core idea is that AI systems can analyze vast biological datasets to identify novel disease pathways and potential drug candidates far faster than human researchers.
  • A potential risk factor mentioned was regulation. Just as the nuclear energy boom was slowed by heavy regulation, the timeline for getting AI-generated drugs to market could be significantly delayed by the FDA approval process.

Takeaways

  • Long-Term Theme: AI in biotech is a powerful, long-term investment theme. The Google news provides strong validation for the potential of this sector.
  • Investment Strategy: Investors interested in this theme could look at biotech ETFs or individual companies that are explicitly using AI in their drug discovery pipelines.
  • Patience is Key: This is not a short-term trade. The path from an AI-generated hypothesis to a commercially available, FDA-approved drug is likely to take many years.

Investment Theme: Geopolitical Risk & Trade Wars

  • The podcast noted that President Trump has explicitly stated, "we are in a trade war with China."
  • A market on the prediction platform Polymarket resolved based on this statement, indicating market participants are taking the threat seriously.
  • The administration is reportedly considering unusual tools like setting floor prices on certain goods to combat Chinese market manipulation, in addition to traditional tariffs.
  • In a related note, it was mentioned that India's Prime Minister Modi has agreed to stop buying Russian oil, suggesting a realignment of global trade partnerships.

Takeaways

  • Increased Market Volatility: Talk of a trade war introduces significant uncertainty and potential volatility into the market.
  • Portfolio Review: Investors should assess their portfolio's exposure to companies that are heavily reliant on manufacturing in China or have a large portion of their sales in the Chinese market.
  • Supply Chain Risk: A trade war could disrupt global supply chains, leading to higher costs and lower profits for many multinational corporations.

Uber (UBER)

  • Uber was used as a historical case study to analyze OpenAI's financial situation.
  • The hosts recalled that a primary critique of Uber for years was its massive cash burn and perceived inability to ever become profitable.
  • Today, Uber has a market capitalization of $192 billion and a P/E ratio of 15, demonstrating that it successfully won the "capital war" in ridesharing and matured into a profitable business.

Takeaways

  • A Model for "Capital War" Stocks: Uber's journey provides a framework for evaluating other high-growth, cash-burning companies. It shows that achieving market dominance, even at a high initial cost, can lead to significant long-term profitability.
  • Patience Can Pay Off: Investors who held on through Uber's money-losing years were eventually rewarded. This serves as a lesson that focusing solely on current losses can cause one to miss the long-term potential of a category-defining company.

Zavo (Private Company)

  • A new company called Zavo was highlighted. It is described as an "ERP for restaurants" and the "first agentic point of sale for restaurants and retail."
  • The platform combines payments, point of sale, and AI agents to help automate and run restaurant operations.
  • The company is backed by General Catalyst and already has over 400 businesses using its platform.

Takeaways

  • Emerging Tech Trend: Zavo is an example of "agentic AI" being applied to specific industries. This is a trend for investors to watch, as AI moves from general tools to specialized, vertical-specific solutions.
  • Private Market Opportunity: For venture capital or angel investors, Zavo represents a new player in the restaurant tech space, a large market ripe for AI-driven disruption. For public market investors, it's a signal of where the next wave of enterprise software innovation is headed.
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About TBPN
TBPN

TBPN

By John Coogan & Jordi Hays

Technology's daily show (formerly the Technology Brothers Podcast). Streaming live on X and YouTube from 11 - 2 PM PST Monday - Friday. Available on X, Apple, Spotify, and YouTube.