Big Tech Earnings, Red vs. Blue Button, Quantum Computing | Jason Yanowitz, Even Rogers, Maria Spiropulu, Stepan Simkin, Kashish Gupta, Dan Magy, Vlad Tenev, Parag Agrawal & Andrew Reed, Gabriel Stengel
Big Tech Earnings, Red vs. Blue Button, Quantum Computing | Jason Yanowitz, Even Rogers, Maria Spiropulu, Stepan Simkin, Kashish Gupta, Dan Magy, Vlad Tenev, Parag Agrawal & Andrew Reed, Gabriel Stengel
10 days ago•TBPN•John Coogan & Jordi Hays
Podcast2 hr 54 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Investors should prioritize Meta (META) for immediate AI-driven returns, as their advanced ad-targeting algorithms are already translating into higher revenue per ad and improved profit margins. Microsoft (MSFT) remains the primary play for enterprise AI, but investors must monitor Azure growth and the stability of the OpenAI partnership to justify its massive capital expenditures. Amazon (AMZN) is a high-conviction infrastructure play, with its $100 billion advertising business providing a cash flow safety net as AWS scales to meet massive compute demand. Google (GOOGL) offers the most integrated AI ecosystem, making it a "buy and hold" as it integrates Gemini into Search and Android to maintain its distribution dominance. For those seeking fintech growth, Robinhood (HOOD) is successfully pivoting from a trading app to a full-service financial platform through its Gold Card expansion and new custodial accounts.

Detailed Analysis

Google (GOOGL)

• Google is described as having the most fully integrated AI stack, spanning consumer distribution, model training (DeepMind), custom chips (TPU), and diverse product services (Workspace, Search, YouTube, Android). • Hyperscaler CapEx is expected to be revised upwards as cloud revenue accelerates with positive ROI. • Key investor questions focus on whether AI changes the unit economics of search and if AI overviews (Gemini) are expanding search usage or compressing the financial model. • Google Search and core businesses remain strong despite the heavy AI build-out.

Takeaways

• Monitor Search Monetization: Watch for how AI overviews and Gemini impact ad revenue and search volume. • Cloud Growth: Look for acceleration in Google Cloud as a sign of successful AI deployment. • Integrated Flywheel: Google’s ability to "stuff" AI features into existing high-traffic products (Workspace, Android) provides a significant distribution advantage.

Microsoft (MSFT)

• Azure is growing at 39%, a key lever for the company's ~$150 billion CapEx run rate. • RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations) reached $625 billion, up 110%, with roughly 45% attributed to the OpenAI partnership. • Microsoft is viewed as the "cleanest read" on enterprise AI monetization due to its dominance in office software. • GitHub Copilot has reached a $500 million ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) run rate.

Takeaways

• Enterprise Adoption: Watch M365 seat growth to gauge the health of the broader SaaS economy and whether AI agents are replacing or augmenting human seats. • Margin Watch: Monitor Microsoft Cloud gross margins to see if customers are demanding discounts due to AI-driven efficiencies. • OpenAI Dependency: A significant portion of Microsoft's future performance is tied to OpenAI; any negative news regarding OpenAI’s stability could impact Microsoft’s stock.

Amazon (AMZN)

• AWS revenue growth is the primary focus to justify a massive $200 billion CapEx budget for 2026. • The Amazon Ads business is nearly a $100 billion/year run rate, providing massive cash flow to fund AI initiatives. • Amazon is positioning itself to be "compute rich" by buying scarce capacity (GPUs) ahead of market demand.

Takeaways

• AWS Reacceleration: Investors are looking for AWS growth to hit the 30%+ range to justify spending. • Ad Business Strength: The high-margin advertising segment remains a "sneaky" powerhouse that de-risks the heavy infrastructure spending.

Meta (META)

• Meta is seeing immediate ROI from AI through better ad placement and monetization funnels. • CapEx guidance for the year is between $115 billion and $135 billion, nearly doubling from the previous year. • Unlike enterprise software, Meta does not have a "diffusion problem"—AI improvements in ad algorithms move the needle on profits almost instantly.

Takeaways

• Ad Performance: AI advancements translate directly into higher average prices per ad and better targeting, driving immediate revenue. • Reels Momentum: Meta’s "Family of Apps" continues to see strong daily active user (DAU) growth, supporting the massive CapEx.

Robinhood (HOOD)

• Robinhood is expanding its market from "18 and over" to "zero and over" via custodial accounts, targeting 60 million children. • The company is diversifying into Robinhood Gold Card (credit), retirement (3% match), and advisory services. • Tokenization: Robinhood is moving toward fully on-chain, DeFi-enabled stock tokens that are "composable."

Takeaways

• Diversification: Robinhood is no longer just a "meme stock" app; it has 11 lines of business generating $100M+ in annualized revenue. • Credit Expansion: The Gold Card is a major growth driver, with 800,000 holders and $15B in annual transaction volume.

Investment Themes & Sectors

AI Infrastructure & "The Big Build-Out"

• The "Railroad" Era: Software is moving from 80% margin "build a website" models to capital-intensive "infrastructure" models resembling oil or railroads. • CapEx vs. Depreciation: The central question for Big Tech is whether they can turn massive CapEx into revenue before depreciation catches up. • GPU/CPU Demand: There is a perceived "CPU shortage" and continued high demand for Nvidia chips and data center builders.

Quantum Computing

• Several pure-play quantum companies have gone public via SPACs (e.g., IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave). • "Q-Day" Risk: The point at which quantum computers can break current encryption is estimated to be arriving sooner than previously thought. • Takeaway: While high-risk, quantum computing is attracting massive capital for applications in drug discovery, materials science, and cryptography.

Defense Tech & Space

• True Anomaly and Firestorm represent a new wave of defense tech focused on "space superiority" and autonomous manufacturing. • Takeaway: Look for "right to repair" and modularity in defense (e.g., 3D printing drones at the point of need) as a shift away from expensive, single-use hardware.

Stablecoins & Fintech

• Squads (Altitude) and Bridge (acquired by Stripe) are building the "missing link" between stablecoins and traditional banking (ACH/SEPA). • Takeaway: The "programmable money" stack is maturing, allowing businesses to operate without traditional bank accounts by using stablecoin rails.

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Episode Description
(00:22) - Big Tech Earnings (15:28) - AI Jitters Return to Wall Street (19:23) - Red vs. Blue Button (36:51) - Jason Yanowitz, co-founder of Blockworks, a crypto-focused media and data company, discusses the company's recent $192 million valuation, highlighting investments from firms like Parafine Reciprocal and Coinbase Ventures, as well as participation from 20 customers, including founders and operators from Solana, Kraken, and Canton. He outlines Blockworks' evolution from a media and events business to becoming the largest data company in crypto, emphasizing their strategy of building a strong audience base before developing data products. Yanowitz also addresses the current state of the crypto market, noting a dichotomy where institutional crypto adoption is thriving while token markets are underperforming, and anticipates that upcoming regulatory clarity will mandate disclosures for all token projects, potentially benefiting Blockworks' disclosure platform. (49:31) - Even Rogers, CEO and Co-Founder of True Anomaly, discusses his transition from a 10-year tenure in the U.S. Air Force to establishing the company, aiming to address the weaponization of space by nations like China and Russia. He highlights the development of their space-to-space engagement platform, Jackal, designed for space superiority, and Mosaic, the software that operates it, emphasizing their rapid deployment and testing methodologies. Rogers also touches on the challenges of tracking objects in space, the importance of reducing coverage gaps, and the company's growth trajectory, including a recent $650 million fundraising round and plans to scale up manufacturing and personnel. (01:02:09) - Maria Spiropulu, an experimental particle physicist with over 30 years of experience at CERN and Fermilab, discusses her work in particle collisions, including the discovery of the Higgs boson, and the development of quantum networks for secure communication. She highlights the potential of quantum computing to revolutionize fields like quantum chemistry and materials science, while emphasizing the importance of addressing cybersecurity challenges posed by these advancements. Additionally, Spiropulu underscores the need for interdisciplinary collaboration to ensure that technological progress benefits society as a whole. (01:33:08) - Stepan Simkin, co-founder and CEO of Squads, discusses the development of stablecoin infrastructure to assist businesses in managing their financial operations. He highlights the challenges companies face in adopting stablecoins, such as the complexity of handling them post-transaction, and emphasizes the importance of integrating stablecoins with traditional banking systems to facilitate seamless financial operations. Simkin also notes the advancements in programmable blockchains and the growing maturity of the stablecoin market, which have enhanced confidence among regulators and the broader market. (01:45:03) - Kashish Gupta, co-founder and co-CEO of Hightouch, an AI platform for marketers, discusses the company's recent $150 million Series D funding at a $2.75 billion valuation, led by Goldman Sachs and Bain Capital Ventures. He highlights Hightouch's evolution since its 2020 inception, emphasizing their AI-driven approach to enabling marketers to generate on-brand content like ads and emails efficiently. Gupta also addresses the transformative role of AI in marketing, noting that Hightouch's platform allows marketers to rapidly launch and test numerous campaigns, leveraging AI to optimize media spend and content creation. (01:57:36) - Dan Magy, co-founder and CEO of Firestorm Labs, discusses the company's mission to revolutionize drone manufacturing through advanced, modular designs and on-demand production capabilities. He highlights the development of the xCell platform, a containerized manufacturing system that enables rapid production of unmanned systems directly at the tactical edge, addressing the challenges of contested logistics. Magy also announces Firestorm's recent $82 million Series B funding, led by Washington Harbour Partners, to accelerate the deployment of these expeditionary manufacturing solutions. (02:06:57) - Vlad Tenev, co-founder and CEO of Robinhood, discusses the company's strategic investments across various stages of the customer lifecycle, including the introduction of Trump accounts to engage younger users, the growth of Robinhood Banking and the Robinhood Gold Card, and the expansion into active trading. He highlights the company's focus on promoting beneficial products like retirement accounts with a 3% contribution match and the innovative Robinhood Strategies, a low-cost passive digital advisor with capped fees. Tenev also addresses customer feedback, noting the company's responsiveness in enhancing features such as paying dividends up to 17 days early and considering the addition of international stocks to meet user demand. (02:29:44) - Parag Agrawal, former CEO of Twitter, discusses the rapid development of AI agents utilizing the web, highlighting the significant progress made in the past six months. He emphasizes the importance of aligning incentives between content owners and AI developers to ensure sustainable growth and open access to web content. Agrawal also addresses the challenges posed by varying web access policies and the need for efficient solutions to enable agents to interact seamlessly with diverse web infrastructures. Andrew Reed is a partner at Sequoia Capital focused on early-stage investments in software, AI, and developer tools. He works closely with founders on product, go-to-market, and scaling, with an emphasis on backing technically driven teams building foundational technology companies. (02:44:03) - Gabriel Stengel, founder and CEO of Rogo, discusses the company's recent $160 million Series D funding round, led by Kleiner Perkins, valuing Rogo at $2 billion. He highlights the rapid adoption of AI tools in the financial sector, emphasizing Rogo's role in enhancing productivity and investment decisions for institutions like investment banks and hedge funds. Stengel also addresses the importance of aligning AI applications with business objectives, managing token consumption, and adapting organizational structures to integrate evolving AI technologies effectively. Follow TBPN:  https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive
About TBPN
TBPN

TBPN

By John Coogan & Jordi Hays

Technology's daily show (formerly the Technology Brothers Podcast). Streaming live on X and YouTube from 11 - 2 PM PST Monday - Friday. Available on X, Apple, Spotify, and YouTube.