Apple & Palantir Earnings, Elon Caps Grok Bot Usage, SpaceX’s Starfall | Diet TBPN
Apple & Palantir Earnings, Elon Caps Grok Bot Usage, SpaceX’s Starfall | Diet TBPN
Podcast29 min 14 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Watch Palantir (PLTR) for continued U.S. commercial growth: its commercial revenue topped government revenue for the first time, but weigh that progress against its roughly $400 billion market value.
  • Track Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG) for growth in cloud, chips, and AI services to offset potential pressure on search referrals and its declining share of enterprise AI spending.
  • Monitor CrowdStrike (CRWD) for evidence that its $495 million acquisitions of Fiddler AI and Dreadnode strengthen its AI-security business; no deal-specific growth forecast was provided.
  • Treat Apple (AAPL) cautiously until upcoming results show whether rising memory-chip and AI costs are squeezing margins, despite record September-quarter revenue.
Detailed Analysis

Apple (AAPL)

  • Apple reported record September-quarter revenue and beat earnings, but its shares were down about 2% that morning.
  • The discussion highlighted possible pressure on profit margins from rising memory-chip prices and the cost of running Apple’s AI tools.
  • Apple has historically held prices steady for long periods, which could make it harder to offset higher costs between product cycles.

Takeaways

  • Track whether higher component and AI-related costs show up in margins, and whether Apple can maintain its pricing approach without eroding profitability.
  • The transcript did not give a price target or a specific buy or sell recommendation.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • Palantir beat earnings. Q3 revenue was $2.3 billion, which the hosts described as an annualized run rate of about $9.25 billion. Its market value was described as about $400 billion.
  • U.S. commercial revenue reached $984 million, surpassing U.S. government revenue of $953 million for the first time.
  • The hosts connected commercial growth to Palantir’s pitch of helping organizations use their own data to implement AI and transform operations. The stock was down about 2% that morning despite the earnings beat.

Takeaways

  • The shift toward commercial revenue is an important indicator to watch: continued growth could show Palantir is expanding beyond its government business.
  • Compare revenue growth with the company’s valuation; the transcript highlighted the valuation but did not establish that it was justified or provide a price target.

Alphabet / Google (GOOGL, GOOG)

  • The discussion described Google’s AI search experience as a potential threat to publishers and other websites that depend on search referrals. Reddit’s CEO reportedly said people still want Reddit, but Google is no longer sending users there as it used to.
  • The hosts said AI-generated search answers may reduce the incentive for users to click through to websites, creating a headwind for media and content-driven businesses.
  • They also cited Anthropic and OpenAI together accounting for 86% of enterprise LLM API spending, up from 67%. Google’s share among enterprise builders was described as having fallen by more than 50%.
  • The discussion also noted potential strengths: Google’s search cash flow can fund investment in infrastructure and acquisitions, and its cloud and chip businesses could provide growth opportunities. The hosts characterized the business as having substantial assets, including cloud, TPUs, and investments or exposure to AI companies.

Takeaways

  • Follow the balance between pressure on traditional search referrals and growth in Google Cloud, chips, and AI services.
  • For investors, the key question raised is whether Google can remain competitive in enterprise AI while adapting search without undermining its economics.

Reddit (RDDT)

  • Reddit’s CEO reportedly said users still want the platform, but Google is sending less traffic to it than before.
  • The discussion treated Google’s AI search features as a potential threat to websites that rely on referrals, while noting that Reddit may retain value as a destination users seek out directly.

Takeaways

  • Monitor Reddit’s ability to attract direct visits and grow users without relying as heavily on Google referrals.
  • The transcript suggests a traffic-distribution risk, but does not provide Reddit-specific financial projections or a price target.

HubSpot (HUBS) and monday.com (MNDY)

  • A commentator quoted in the show argued that AI-driven changes to search and web traffic are weakening content-driven customer-acquisition funnels.
  • HubSpot and monday.com were cited as companies that had been “crushed” by this funnel collapse. No specific financial figures were provided.

Takeaways

  • Investors in software companies that depend on inbound web traffic may want to assess how much of their customer acquisition relies on search and content marketing.
  • The transcript presents this as a concern, not a quantified forecast for either company.

Microsoft (MSFT)

  • Microsoft was grouped with Palantir as an AI “enabler”: companies that help organizations implement AI using their data and existing operations.
  • The hosts described Microsoft’s pitch as similar to Palantir’s, centered on helping customers use their data and transform their organizations.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to enterprise AI implementation as an investment theme, but offers no Microsoft-specific earnings details, risk assessment, or recommendation.

xAI / Grok

  • Elon Musk reportedly said the cost of serving GrokBot was unsustainable relative to revenue. The hosts discussed high computing costs and uncertainty around the product’s adoption and commercial model.
  • They speculated that GrokBot may have relied on Anthropic’s model technology, but presented this as an uncertain explanation.
  • The hosts said GrokBot usage limits had been adjusted, rather than the product being shut down.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlights the challenge of making AI products economically viable when computing costs are high and monetization is unclear.
  • Treat the product’s adoption and unit economics as open questions; the transcript gives no financial details or investment recommendation for xAI.

Anthropic

  • Anthropic was cited alongside OpenAI as accounting for a combined 86% of enterprise LLM API spending, up from 67%.
  • The hosts also speculated that Anthropic technology may have been used in GrokBot, while acknowledging uncertainty.

Takeaways

  • The transcript portrays Anthropic as a leading enterprise AI provider, but does not provide company financials or a direct investment recommendation. Anthropic is not publicly traded.

OpenAI

  • OpenAI was cited alongside Anthropic as accounting for a combined 86% of enterprise LLM API spending, up from 67%.
  • The discussion contrasted these “frontier” AI companies with providers such as Microsoft and Palantir, which help businesses deploy AI.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggests enterprise spending is concentrating among leading model providers, while also highlighting the distinct opportunity in implementation and deployment.
  • OpenAI is not publicly traded; the transcript provides no direct investment recommendation.

CrowdStrike (CRWD)

  • CrowdStrike announced acquisitions of two AI security startups, Fiddler AI and Dreadnode, for a combined $495 million.
  • The hosts connected the deals to growing attention to AI security and discussed CrowdStrike CEO George Kurtz’s idea of an AI “kill switch.”

Takeaways

  • The acquisitions signal that CrowdStrike is investing in AI-related security capabilities. Investors can watch whether the acquired technology strengthens its offerings and contributes to growth.
  • The transcript did not provide deal-specific financial projections or a price target.

SpaceX and Starfall

  • SpaceX introduced Starfall, a service intended to provide access to microgravity for manufacturing, research, and testing in low Earth orbit.
  • Potential uses mentioned included biomedical research, pharmaceutical discovery, and manufacturing materials and semiconductors.
  • The hosts viewed SpaceX’s entry as validation of the broader market opportunity, while noting it creates competition for Varda.

Takeaways

  • Space-based manufacturing and research are emerging investment themes, but the discussion did not establish their commercial scale or profitability.
  • SpaceX is privately held, and the transcript did not offer a valuation or investment recommendation.

Varda

  • Varda was described as an early company focused on manufacturing and research in space, including building capabilities for biomedical work and returning materials from orbit.
  • The hosts said SpaceX’s Starfall announcement could validate the market while also creating a serious competitor. They noted that Varda has developed its own capsule and partnerships with biotechnology companies, which could leave room for collaboration or differentiated services.

Takeaways

  • The opportunity depends on whether space-based research and manufacturing develop into a sufficiently large commercial market.
  • Competition from SpaceX is a key consideration. Varda is privately held, and no financial data or investment terms were discussed.

Rocket Lab (RKLB) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)

  • The hosts said Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile were trading at high levels in part because customers may want alternatives to relying solely on SpaceX’s Starlink.
  • They described the potential for customers to dual-source providers as a way to maintain alternatives and negotiating leverage.

Takeaways

  • The discussion identifies provider diversification as a possible source of demand for companies competing with or complementing SpaceX.
  • This is not a guarantee of customer wins or future performance; the transcript offered no price targets or company-specific financial analysis.

Shopify (SHOP)

  • Shopify spent $99 million to acquire the shop.com domain. The hosts called the domain a strong asset and speculated that Shopify has larger plans for it.

Takeaways

  • The purchase may support Shopify’s branding or future strategy, but the transcript did not describe a specific business plan or expected financial return.
  • Investors should distinguish the hosts’ positive reaction to the domain from evidence of its eventual commercial impact.
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Diet TBPN delivers the best of today’s TBPN episode in 30 minutes. TBPN is a live tech talk show hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays, streaming weekdays 11–2 PT on X and YouTube, with each episode posted to podcast platforms right after. Described by The New York Times as “Silicon Valley’s newest obsession,” the show has recently featured Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Mark Cuban, and Satya Nadella. TBPN is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.com Public - https://public.com Cisco - https://www.cisco.com Console - https://www.console.com CrowdStrike - https://www.crowdstrike.com Figma - https://www.figma.com MongoDB - https://www.mongodb.com NYSE - https://www.nyse.com Railway - https://railway.com Shopify - https://www.shopify.com/ Follow TBPN:  https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive
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By John Coogan & Jordi Hays

Technology's daily show (formerly the Technology Brothers Podcast). Streaming live on X and YouTube from 11 - 2 PM PST Monday - Friday. Available on X, Apple, Spotify, and YouTube.