Another AI Safety Kerfuffle, Markiplier’s Stake in GoPro, SpaceX Getting Into Turbines | Diet TBPN
Another AI Safety Kerfuffle, Markiplier’s Stake in GoPro, SpaceX Getting Into Turbines | Diet TBPN
Podcast31 min 9 sec
Listen to Episode
Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Investors holding GoPro (GPRO) should maintain their positions to capture upside from Starman Optical's $285 million acquisition, which provides ongoing exposure to AI optical networking via a retained 10% equity stake. The recent headline-driven dip in Howmet Aerospace (HWM) presents an attractive entry point, as market disruption from SpaceX remains unlikely due to severe manufacturing barriers and Howmet's well-diversified aerospace and defense revenue. To capitalize on the AI power infrastructure buildout, investors should favor heavy equipment leaders GE Vernova (GEV) and Caterpillar (CAT), which trade at reasonable valuations of 33 and 26 times forward earnings, respectively. Conversely, caution is warranted around Doncasters Group (DPC), which carries substantial downside risk trading at an expensive 45 times forward earnings with high revenue concentration in natural gas turbines.

Detailed Analysis

GoPro (GPRO)

  • YouTube creator Markiplier built an estimated 8% to 8.5% stake in the company (roughly $10–$12 million invested) after using the new Mission One Pro camera, which allows interchangeable lenses for low-cost cinema-grade output.
  • Starman Optical (a holding company with consumer accessory brands like InCase and Griffin) proposed a merger acquisition involving $285 million in cash, retiring existing debt.
  • Current shareholders will retain 10% of the post-transaction company, and the combined entity will keep the NASDAQ public listing.
  • Starman also operates a separate photonics division focused on high-speed optical networking equipment for AI data centers.
  • The stock surged 30% to 33% following the acquisition announcement.

Takeaways

  • GoPro's core hardware business is being absorbed into a broader consumer electronics holding structure, reducing stand-alone operational risk while retaining a 10% equity stub for existing investors.
  • Investors holding the ticker gain exposure to the broader holding company and its optical networking division targeting AI infrastructure.

Howmet Aerospace (HWM)

  • Operates as part of an oligopoly alongside Berkshire Hathaway's Precision Castparts that manufactures advanced blades and vanes for aerospace, defense, and natural gas turbines.
  • Natural gas turbine demand is surging as a power solution for AI data centers, driving strong revenue growth forecasts for the sector.
  • Shares fell over 7% before partially rebounding after Elon Musk announced that SpaceX plans to cast its own natural gas turbine blades and vanes in Bastrop, Texas, aiming to speed up turbine deployment by up to 18 months.
  • The company trades at a premium valuation of 42 times forward earnings.
  • SpaceX entry faces severe technical barriers, including casting single-crystal nickel superalloys in vacuum furnaces with high initial scrap rates, and Morgan Stanley notes SpaceX will likely only manufacture components for internal use.

Takeaways

  • Howmet remains well-diversified, with only 11% of revenue tied to natural gas turbines and the majority supported by aerospace and defense.
  • While high forward multiples (42x) create short-term volatility on headlines, the threat of direct commercial market disruption from SpaceX appears remote due to extreme manufacturing barriers and SpaceX's internal-use focus.

Doncasters Group / Power Turbine Component Suppliers (DPC)

  • Identified as a smaller player in the turbine blade and vane manufacturing market alongside Howmet Aerospace.
  • Highly exposed to the power generation market, with approximately 40% of its revenue derived directly from natural gas-fired turbines.
  • Currently trades at an elevated valuation of 45 times forward earnings as an AI energy infrastructure play.

Takeaways

  • DPC carries significantly higher concentration risk than diversified aerospace peers like Howmet if alternative manufacturing or new supply entrants emerge in the natural gas turbine market.

Power Equipment & Industrial Turbine Makers (GEV / CAT)

  • GE Vernova (GEV) and Caterpillar (CAT) manufacture heavy power turbines and equipment essential to meeting the rapid energy demands of AI data centers.
  • Both trade at lower forward earnings multiples (33 times for GE Vernova, 26 times for Caterpillar) compared to the specialized blade and vane component suppliers (42x–45x).

Takeaways

  • Large industrial equipment manufacturers provide exposure to the AI power infrastructure buildout at relatively more moderate valuation multiples than specialized component casting suppliers.
Ask about this postAnswers are grounded in this post's content.
Episode Description
Diet TBPN delivers the best of today’s TBPN episode in 30 minutes. TBPN is a live tech talk show hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays, streaming weekdays 11–2 PT on X and YouTube, with each episode posted to podcast platforms right after. Described by The New York Times as “Silicon Valley’s newest obsession,” the show has recently featured Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Mark Cuban, and Satya Nadella. TBPN is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.com Public - https://public.com Cisco - https://www.cisco.com Console - https://www.console.com CrowdStrike - https://www.crowdstrike.com Figma - https://www.figma.com MongoDB - https://www.mongodb.com NYSE - https://www.nyse.com Railway - https://railway.com Shopify - https://www.shopify.com/ Follow TBPN:  https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive
About TBPN
TBPN

TBPN

By John Coogan & Jordi Hays

Technology's daily show (formerly the Technology Brothers Podcast). Streaming live on X and YouTube from 11 - 2 PM PST Monday - Friday. Available on X, Apple, Spotify, and YouTube.